Sentences to ponder
So, my advice to Paul and Brad is this: don't start with a model that
focuses on investor beliefs about real economic variables. Instead,
start with a model in which financial firms use signaling to expand,
and the credibility of those signals increases over time as long as
nothing adverse happens. It should be easy to develop a model in which
signaling devices gain credibility slowly but lose credibility
suddenly. That will (a) produce the asymmetry between euphorias and
crashes and (b) tell a story that puts the fragility of the financial
sector in the middle, where it belongs.
Profile of Nouriel Roubini
This one was fun. Excerpt:
Some economists — strict academics mostly–have long considered Roubini a quack. They
sneer at his approach, which is wide, deep, and deeply unconventional.
When he travels, for instance, he says his research includes talking to
"everyone from the airport cab driver all the way to the finance
minister." One prominent economist who studies recession indicators
recently slammed Roubini for his "subjective," "wild man" predictions
because they don't always rely on econometric modeling. And Roubini
certainly didn't help his case at an IMF conference in September 2006,
when he guesstimated the chances of a world recession at 70 percent
before offering, by way of explanation, that he had pulled the number
"just out of my nose."
Markets in everything
Kyle S., a loyal MR reader, sends along the following:
See attached image of a Google ad I saw today. The text reads:
"TweepMe – Get Followers – www.TweepMe.com – Get 4,000 Twitter followers for $13 Simply sign up and we do the rest."
Assorted links
Google grammar test
Here’s what’s on Google’s home page on May 16, 2009:
Over 28,000 children drew doodles for our homepage.
Vote for the one that will appear here!
Test yourself: Can you find the two grammar errors?
The answer is here but no peeking!
Estonia Schadenfreude
It is now common in the left-leaning blogosphere to cite Estonia, its rapidly collapsing economy, and its earlier free market policies. Sometimes the name of Dan Mitchell pops up as well.
I would add a cautionary note. Recall for instance that Chile and South Korea and New Zealand also had collapsing economies, for a while (the early 80s for Chile and late 80s for NZ) but they rebounded because they were built on relatively sound economic policies. The point can be made that they, like the Estonians, indulged in too much speculative excess but most Estonian decisions have been good ones.
Which Eastern European economy has suffered least from the financial crisis? By most accounts it is Bulgaria. Should we envy their economic policies? Should you prefer the Bulgarian Way to the Estonian Way?
Which country has a future you would bet upon?
Etc.
The new Gabriel GarcÃa Márquez biography
One day [Alvaro] Mutis climbed the seven flights of stairs, carried two books into the apartment without saying hello, slapped them down on the table, and roared: "Stop fucking about and read that vaina, so you'll learn how to write!" Whether all GarcÃa Márquez's friends really swore all the time during these years we will never know — but in his anecdotes they do. The two slim books were a novel entitled Pedro Páramo, which had been published in 1955, and a collection of stories entitled The Burning Plain (El llano en llamas), published in 1953. The writer was the Mexican Juan Rulfo. GarcÃa Márquez read Pedro Páramo twice the first day, and The Burning Plain the next day. He claims that he had never been so impressed by anything since he had first read Kafka; that he learned Pedro Páramo, literally, by heart; and that he read nothing else for the rest of the year because everything else seemed so inferior.
That is from the new and noteworthy Gerald Martin biography of GarcÃa Márquez. This very impressive (and enjoyable) book was seventeen years in the making. It's also not a bad way to learn about the political and economic history of northern Colombia. This should make any short list of either the best non-fiction books this year or the best literary biographies. The reader also learns the probable origins of the famed spat with Mario Vargas Llosa (p.375); it had to do with a woman, namely Vargas Llosa's wife.
This paragraph has an idea I hadn’t heard before
What sweet words those are. Here is the paragraph, from The Economist:
Matt King, an analyst at Citigroup, believes that the surge in
securitisation during the bubble can partly be explained by a massive
mismatch between the regulatory regimes of American and European banks.
Those American banks whose regulator imposed a leverage ratio had an
incentive to move assets off their balance-sheets. European banks which
operated only under a risk-weighted capital regime were able to buy
those very same assets because they attracted a low capital charge.
With risk weightings on the rise, and leverage ratios all the rage, the
capacity of European banks to purchase these assets is shrinking.
The broader question is to what extent the securitization model will make a comeback anytime soon.
Addendum: Arnold Kling comments.
WolframAlpha Easter Eggs
The excellent Eric Crampton writes to me:
If you find any more, let me know. Ones I've found so far:
What is the meaning of life?
What is the velocity of an unladen swallow?
How many roads must a man walk down?
How much wood could a woodchuck chuck?
Why did the chicken cross the road?
How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
He blogged this experience, along with the answers he got, here. WolframAlpha also tells us that angels have no extension and therefore an infinite number of them can dance on the head of a pin.
Ezra Klein’s new blog, at The Washington Post
Gary Gorton’s new paper
Find it here, with this abstract:
The
'shadow banking system' at the heart of the current credit crisis is,
in fact, a real banking system – and is vulnerable to a banking panic.
Indeed, the events starting in August 2007 are a banking panic. A
banking panic is a systemic event because the banking system cannot
honor its obligations and is insolvent. Unlike the historical banking
panics of the 19th and early 20th centuries, the current banking panic
is a wholesale panic, not a retail panic. In the earlier episodes,
depositors ran to their banks and demanded cash in exchange for their
checking accounts. Unable to meet those demands, the banking system
became insolvent. The current panic involved financial firms 'running'
on other financial firms by not renewing sale and repurchase agreements
(repo) or increasing the repo margin ('haircut'), forcing massive
deleveraging, and resulting in the banking system being insolvent. The
earlier episodes have many features in common with the current crisis,
and examination of history can help understand the current situation
and guide thoughts about reform of bank regulation. New regulation can
facilitate the functioning of the shadow banking system, making it less
vulnerable to panic.
Addendum: Arnold Kling summarizes some of the recommendations:
1. Senior tranches of securitizations of approved asset classes should be insured by the government.
2. The government must supervise and examine "banks," i.e.,
securitizations, rather than rely on ratings agencies. That is, the
choices of asset class, portfolio, and tranching must be overseen be
examiners.
3. Entry into securitization should be limited, and any firm that enters is deemed a "bank" and subject to supervision.
The Politics of Cap and Trade
Good overview in the NYTimes on the politics of cap and trade. The bottom line:
How did cap and trade, hatched as an academic theory in obscure
economic journals half a century ago, become the policy of choice in
the debate over how to slow the heating of the planet? And how did it
come to eclipse the idea of simply slapping a tax on energy consumption…
The answer is not to be found in the study of
economics or environmental science, but in the realm where most policy
debates are ultimately settled: politics…Cap and trade…is almost perfectly designed for the buying
and selling of political support through the granting of valuable
emissions permits to favor specific industries and even specific
Congressional districts.That is precisely what is taking place now in the House Energy and Commerce Committee…
Here is how Tyler and I put it in Modern Principles: Microeconomics
With a tax, firms
must pay the government for each ton
of pollutant that they emit. With pollution
allowances, firms must either use
the pollution allowances that they are
given or if they want to emit more they
must buy allowances from other firms.
Either way, firms that are given allowances
in the initial allocation get a
big benefit compared to having to pay
taxes. Thus, some people say that pollution
allowances equal corrective taxes
plus corporate welfare.
That’s not necessarily the best way of
looking at the issue…
…To make progress against global warming, may require building
a political coalition. A carbon tax pushes one very powerful and interested
group, the large energy firms, into the opposition. If tradable allowances are
instead given to firms initially, there is a better chance of bringing the large energy
firms into the coalition. Perhaps it’s not fair that politically powerful
groups must be bought off but as Otto von Bismarck, Germany’s first chancellor,
once said,”Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made.”
We can only add that producing both laws and sausages requires some pork.
Careful readers may recognize a friendly jab at a competitor.
Ferguson on Regulation and Deregulation
Human beings are as good at devising ex post facto explanations for big disasters as they are bad at anticipating those disasters. It is indeed impressive how rapidly the economists who failed to predict this crisis – or predicted the wrong crisis (a dollar crash) – have been able to produce such a satisfying story about its origins. Yes, it was all the fault of deregulation.
There are just three problems with this story. First, deregulation began quite a while ago (the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act was passed in 1980). If deregulation is to blame for the recession that began in December 2007, presumably it should also get some of the credit for the intervening growth. Second, the much greater financial regulation of the 1970s failed to prevent the United States from suffering not only double-digit inflation in that decade but also a recession (between 1973 and 1975) every bit as severe and protracted as the one we’re in now. Third, the continental Europeans – who supposedly have much better-regulated financial sectors than the United States – have even worse problems in their banking sector than we do. The German government likes to wag its finger disapprovingly at the “Anglo Saxon” financial model, but last year average bank leverage was four times higher in Germany than in the United States. Schadenfreude will be in order when the German banking crisis strikes.
Niall Ferguson writing in the NYTimes. Recommended.
Assorted links
1. The new Bruce Bartlett book.
2. Markets in everything: smart memory bras, from Slovenia.
My Markey-Waxman query repeated: what are the climate benefits of the bill?
Barkley Rosser, who is not held in the thrall of the Cato Institute, posts in the comments:
Maybe it's still early but this apparent gap in the literature is not encouraging. I'll repeat my query. What would be the climate benefits of this bill? If you want to cite an estimate involving strategic interdependencies with China and India, fine. But please cite something that puts forward and defends a particular estimate.
Is there a better case for this bill than: "it will raise government revenue, which I favor anyway, and raise the costs of unsavory corporations, which doesn't strike me as so terribly unjust anyway, and on the estimate of climate benefits I will just fudge it and hope for the best and claim we must do something?" David Frum comments.
Matt Yglesias has a different argument: better to start now than never.
I would phrase a related point more technically: acting now may be
keeping open a valuable option on doing more later. Still, I wish to
know what that option is worth, noting that if major action is impossible today it may be impossible tomorrow as well.
In the comments section of this post I'm not interested in being lectured about CO2 in the time of the trilobites, corrupt scientific groupthink, hearing that geo-engineering would be cheaper, or reading that various wimps won't face up to the need for nuclear power. I'm also not interested in hearing whether the costs of shifting to greener energy are high or low, at least not today. I just want to see the benefit estimates on this particular policy and if you put any serious estimate forward in due time I will assess it and report back to you.
Yes it is hard to model international interdependencies and option value — two of the major potential benefits — but we try to model such complexities for other policies all the time. Surely it's worth some group doing a 50-100 page study of what we can hope to achieve. Then we could see how plausible is the case for the bill.
If there is such a study, I promise I won't complain about the discount rate, I won't pretend that uncertainty militates in favor of inaction, and I won't dismiss it by saying a carbon tax would be better and then refusing to judge cap and trade vs. nothing. I want to see whether you need crazy or sensible judgments to get large aggregate benefits from proceeding.
Comments, of course, are open but subject to the above caveats. No trilobites!