Month: October 2024
Saturday assorted links
1. Ross Douthat on late term abortion (NYT).
2. That’s a lot of AI subscriptions. Somehow I found that link hilarous.
3. Centre Pompidou outpost in…New Jersey?
4. Poland to suspend asylum rights temporarily.
5. Michael Pettis profile (WSJ…p.s. prices are flexible in the medium-term).
Dario Amodei on AI and the optimistic scenario
Here is a longish essay, here is one excerpt:
Economists often talk about “factors of production”: things like labor, land, and capital. The phrase “marginal returns to labor/land/capital” captures the idea that in a given situation, a given factor may or may not be the limiting one – for example, an air force needs both planes and pilots, and hiring more pilots doesn’t help much if you’re out of planes. I believe that in the AI age, we should be talking about the marginal returns to intelligence7, and trying to figure out what the other factors are that are complementary to intelligence and that become limiting factors when intelligence is very high. We are not used to thinking in this way—to asking “how much does being smarter help with this task, and on what timescale?”—but it seems like the right way to conceptualize a world with very powerful AI.
I view human imperfections, and current institutional and legal constraints as more binding than Dario does, and thus I think speeds of progress will be lower than he does. But there is much in his essay I agree with.
Matt Yglesias on regulation and deregulation
…it’s notable that if you look at the major deregulator measures of the past four years, it mostly happened under Jimmy Carter (Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978, Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, Motor Carrier Act of 1980, Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980) or Bill Clinton (Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994, Telecommunications Act of 1996, Graham-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999) rather than Reagan. What Reagan did was cut taxes, staff the agencies with business-friendly appointees, and build the power of the conservative legal movement. Similarly, George W. Bush cut taxes, staffed the agencies with business-friendly appointees, and built the power of the conservative legal movement. Donald Trump, who in some ways represented a conceptual break with the Reagan-Bush political tradition, also cut taxes, staffed the agencies with business-friendly appointees, and built the power of the conservative legal movement.
That’s what Republican presidents do. Deregulatory efforts tend to happen when market-oriented thinkers persuade some prominent Democrats that they’re right about something, and then bipartisan deals get made. Also note that there’s something funny about the extent to which Carter has become retroactively famous for legalizing home brewing rather than, say, the natural gas thing, which legitimately transformed the national and global economy.
Here is the whole post (gated), with other interesting points as well.
From the Department of Energy
PIER Plans will be evaluated as part of the merit review process and will be used to inform funding decisions. The review criterion, Quality and Efficacy of the Plan for Promoting Inclusive and Equitable Research, will be included as one of the merit review criteria that peer reviewers will use to evaluate applications.
The Office of Science’s standard merit review criteria are set forth by 10 CFR Part 605.10 and may include additional criteria relevant to the scope and objectives of the solicitation.
Here is the notice, with further detail, it seems that will apply to all of their grant funding?
Via a loyal MR reader.
Friday assorted links
2. Why are fewer men going to college?
3. Warren Nutter’s Soviet research for the CIA.
4. Those new service sector jobs: “This Texas Mom Charges Over $1,000 for Her Elaborate Pumpkin Displays.”
5. Pizza Hut Will Deliver Your Resume Printed on a Pizza Box to Prospective Employers (NYC only).
Optimus personal assistant robot
U.S.A. facts of the day
The U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation minority staff (Committee), which oversees federal science agencies including NSF, analyzed 32,198 Prime Award grants NSF awarded to 2,443 different entities with project start dates between January 2021 and April 2024.
Committee analysis found 3,483 grants, more than ten percent of all NSF grants and totaling over $2.05 billion in federal dollars, went to questionable projects that promoted diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) tenets or pushed onto science neo-Marxist perspectives about enduring class struggle. The Committee grouped these grants into five categories: Status, Social Justice, Gender, Race, and Environmental Justice. For the purposes for this report, “DEI funding,” a “DEI grant,” or “DEI research” refers to taxpayer dollars NSF provided to a research or engagement program that fell into one of these five groups.
Here is the full report. Note that by early 2024, that figure had risen to 27 percent.
Arbitrage! (at multiple levels)
Starting today: Kalshi will pay you 4.05% interest on both your cash and open positions.
Here is the link.
Thursday assorted links
The Economic Way of Thinking in a Pandemic
During the pandemic, economists often found themselves at odds with politicians, physicians, epidemiologists and others. Some politicians, for example, were worried that the pharma companies might engage in profiteering while economists worried that the pharma companies were not nearly profitable enough. Physicians focused on maximizing the health of patients while economists focused on maximizing the health of society–during the pandemic these were not the same and this led to disputes over testing, first doses first and human challenge trials. During the pandemic economists were often accused of not staying in their lane. But what is the economist’s lane?
In this talk, I discuss the economic way of thinking and how it conflicted with other ways of thinking. My talk pairs well with my recent paper also titled The Economic Way of Thinking in a Pandemic.
South Africa update
The African National Congress no longer regards privatisation as a “swear word” and has accepted that “bringing private sector money on board is not selling your soul”, said South Africa’s deputy president Paul Mashatile.
In an interview with the Financial Times at the end of a week-long investor roadshow to Britain and Ireland, Mashatile said South Africa’s new government, in which the ANC is sharing power with the market-leaning Democratic Alliance, had understood the need for more private investment in sectors such as energy, water and infrastructure. “We don’t have the money to do it, so we need the private sector,” said Mashatile, considered a potential successor to President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Investor sentiment towards South Africa has improved dramatically since the formation of the GNU, after 15 years in which the economy has barely grown against the backdrop of corruption scandals and government mismanagement of basic services.
The South African rand has risen more than 12 per cent against the US dollar this year, behind only the Argentine peso and Turkish lira. The Johannesburg bourse’s benchmark index is up 21 per cent in US dollar terms including dividends.
Here is more from the FT.
My excellent Conversation with Tom Tugendhat
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary:
Tom Tugendhat has served as a Member of Parliament since 2015, holding roles such as Security Minister and chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. Before entering Parliament, Tom served in in Iraq and Afghanistan. He also worked for the Foreign Office, helped establish the National Security Council of Afghanistan, and served as military assistant and principal adviser to the Chief of the Defense Staff.
Tyler and Tom examine the evolving landscape of governance and leadership in the UK today, touching on the challenges of managing London under the UK’s centralized system, why England remains economically unbalanced, his most controversial view on London’s architecture, whether YIMBYism in England can succeed, the unique politics and history of Kent, whether the system of private schools needs reform, his pick for the greatest unselected prime minister, whether Brexit revealed a defect in the parliamentary system, whether the House of Lords should be abolished, why the British monarchy continues to captivate the world, devolution in Scotland and Northern Ireland, how learning Arabic in Yemen affected his life trajectory, his read on the Middle East and Russia, the Tom Tugendhat production function, his pitch for why a talented young person should work in the British Civil Service, and more.
And here is an excerpt:
COWEN: Okay. First question, what is your favorite walk around London, and what does it show about the city that outsiders might not understand?
TUGENDHAT: Oh, my favorite walk is down the river. A lot of people walk down the river. One of the best things about walking down the river in London is, first of all, it shows two things. One, that London is actually an incredibly private place. You can be completely on your own in the center of one of the biggest cities in the world within seconds, just by walking down the river. Very often, even in the middle of the day, there’s nobody there. You walk past things that are just extraordinary. You walk past a customs house. It’s not used anymore, but it was the customs house for 300, 400, 500 years. You walk past, obviously, the Tower of London. You walk past Tower Bridge. You walk past many things like that.
Actually, you’re walking past a lot of modern London as well, and you see the reality of London, which is — the truth is, London isn’t a single city. It’s many, many different villages, all cobbled together in various different ways. I think outsiders miss the fact that there’s a real intimacy to London that you miss if all you’re doing is you’re going on the Tube, or if you’re going on the bus. If you walk down that river, you see a very, very different kind of London. You see real communities and real smaller communities.
And:
COWEN: Can the British system of government in its current parliamentary form — how well can that work without broadly liberal individualistic foundations in public opinion?
TUGENDHAT: I think it works extremely well at ensuring that truly liberal foundations are maintained. I mean that not in the American sense; I mean in a genuine, the old liberal tradition that emerges from the UK in the 1700s, 1800s, where freedom of thought, freedom of assembly, the right to own property, and all those principles that then became embedded in various different constitutions around the world, including your own. I think it does very well at doing that because it forces you, our system forces you, into partnership. There are 650 people who you have to work with in some way in Parliament over the next four or five years.
And there’s four of us currently going for leadership at the Conservative Party. There’s one reason why, despite the fact that we’re competing almost in a US primary system, the way in which we are dealing with each other is very different, is because we’re all going to have to work together for the next four years. Whoever wins is going to have to work with the other three, and the idea that you can simply ignore each other isn’t true. There’s only 121 of us Conservative MPs in Parliament, and what this system forces on us is the need to deal with each other in a way that you have to deal with somebody if you’re going to deal with them tomorrow. I think that’s one of the reasons why the British political system has endured because it forces you to remember that there’s a long-term interest, not an immediate one, not just a short-term one.
Recommended, highly intelligent throughout, including on China, Russia, and Yemen.
How economists think about victims of natural disasters
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt:
First, whenever possible it is better to use private insurance, such as homeowner’s insurance and flood insurance, to protect against loss. One of the functions of insurance is to make losers at least partially whole after the fact, but another is to make risky decisions too expensive to contemplate in the first place.
This second function of insurance is especially important for Florida. The state is vulnerable to storms, so market prices for insurance should be allowed to adjust to higher levels, most of all for vulnerable properties. High prices in an area are a sign that building and renovation should not take place there. With fewer people living in vulnerable areas, the cost of storms will fall accordingly.
That sounds harsh, but “incentives matter” is the first and primary principle of economics, and sometimes incentives should be allowed to operate. Unfortunately, Florida has a state-run insurer of last resort which continues to bail out homeowners.
Political debates tend to frame this issue as whether to help poor, struggling homeowners. And indeed they may well suffer some terrifying losses because of storms. But whatever you think of such bailouts after the fact, with better incentives ahead of time, that issue will come up less often.
Economists are better at ex ante institutional design than at adjudicating all claims on the public purse ex post.
Advice that is not always heeded.
Wednesday assorted links
“Das was damals, das ist jetzt”
The Council for German Orthography (RdR) caused a stir amongst grammar perfectionists on Monday when it announced that as of 2025, an apostrophe used to indicate possession will be considered correct.
Since 2004, the RdR has been considered the leading source on Standard High German spelling and grammar, and is relied on for school textbooks in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.
In English, possession of an object is almost always implied by use of an apostrophe, as in: Henry’s Bar, Bloomingdale’s department store.
Not so in German, where possession is either shown by use of the genitive grammatical case, or without an apostrophe as in the case of Annes Cafe (Anne’s cafe).
However, in recent decades it has become increasingly common, especially for small businesses, to use the apostrophe in German to indicate possession: Andi’s Imbiss (Andi’s restaurant), Kim’s Kiosk.
Here is the full story, the informing email was Mike Doherty’s.