Month: March 2025

Visits to the Doctor, Per Year

The number of times people visit the doctor per year varies tremendously across OECD countries from a low of 2.9 in Chile to a high of 17.5 (!) in Korea. I haven’t run the numbers officially but it doesn’t seem that there is much correlation with medical spending per capita or life expectancy.

Data can be found here.

Hat tip: Emil Kirkegaard on X.

Model this, child care vs. college costs

The cost of child care now exceeds the price of college tuition in 38 states and the District of Columbia, according to a new analysis conducted by the Economic Policy Institute.

The left-leaning think tank, based in Washington, D.C., used 2023 federal and nonprofit data to compare the monthly cost of infant child care to that of tuition at public colleges.

The tally increased five states since the pandemic began. EPI’s last analysis relied on 2020 data, which showed child care costs outstripped college costs in 33 states and Washington, D.C., said EPI spokesperson Nick Kauzlarich.

The organization released a state-by-state guide on Wednesday showing the escalating cost of child care. Average costs range from $521 per month in Mississippi to as much as $1,893 per month in Washington, D.C., for households with one 4-year-old child, EPI found.

Here is the full story, via Anecdotal.

The Curious Surge of Productivity in U.S. Restaurants

We document that, after remaining almost constant for almost 30 years, real labor productivity at U.S. restaurants surged over 15% during the COVID pandemic. This surge has persisted even as many conditions have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Using mobile phone data tracking visits and spending at more than 100,000 individual limited service restaurants across the country, we explore the potential sources of the surge. It cannot be explained by economies of scale, expanding market power, or a direct result of COVID-sourced demand fluctuations. The restaurants’ productivity growth rates are strongly correlated, however, with reductions in the amount of time their customers spend in the establishments, particularly with a rising share of customers spending 10 minutes or less. The frequency of such ‘take-out’ customers rose considerably during COVID, even at fast food restaurants, and never went back down. The magnitude of the restaurant-level relationship between productivity and customer dwell time, if applied to the aggregate decrease in dwell time, can explain almost all of the aggregate productivity increase in our sample.

That is from a new paper by Austan Goolsbee, Chad Syverson, Rebecca Goldgof & Joe Tatarka.  A good paper, though I for one will note I consider the take-out experience (which I hardly ever do) to be a quality degradation.

Tuesday assorted links

1. More on stablecoins going mainstream (FT).

2. Kevin Drum, one of the all-time great bloggers, RIP.

3. Bioethicists, on average, are worse than astrologers.  Much worse.

4, Mark Carney wants to eliminate the consumer carbon tax and replace it with a carbon tax on imports?

5. Scott Sumner reviews George Selgin on the New Deal.

6. Some skepticism about a Microsoft quantum computing breakthrough.

7. Dean Ball on Manus.

Kevin Drum, RIP

Kevin Drum was one of the OG bloggers. I never met him IRL but we know from Ibelin that that is no bar to being friends. One thing I learned from Ayn Rand is that virtue should be rewarded, not just sin punished. That’s one reason why we shouldn’t wait until someone has passed to praise their goodness. I’m glad I wrote to Kevin many years ago:

Kevin,

   Thanks for your excellent blogging! I am always pleased when you link to one of my posts. I appreciate the attention, of course, but especially so because agree or disagree you have always read me fairly. Many bloggers look for the weakest or worst way that a post can be interpreted so that they can score cheap points. In contrast, I’ve always seen you take on an author’s strongest arguments. I appreciate that. Knowing how honestly and perceptively you treat my posts has also made me more attentive to all of your blogging which I read daily.

Best

Alex Tabarrok

Visiting the New Jersey shore

Did you know that the rest of the country (world?) calls it “the beach”?  New Jerseyans call it “the shore.”  (Why?)

While growing up, my mother would take my sister and me to the New Jersey shore for a week, each summer.  My father would drive down and visit, but he was too much of a workaholic and too antsy to stay for long.

One of the first things you learn, living in The Great NJ, is that each and every town has its own identity.  It feels quite different from the next town over, and has an individualized history and often a quite different ethnic mix.  Before I knew any other social science, I learned that place really matters.  And hovering at the horizon is the NYC skyline, a regular reminder that things can change rather quickly once you cross a line, in this case taking a bus across a river.  I started thinking about “invisible borders” seriously and at a young age.  Later, in high school, the kids were from either Hillsdale (my town), or from River Vale, one town over.  We thought of them as the “wuss kids.”

So just about everyone is a regional thinker, and in New Jersey your “region” refers to your town or maybe county, not to the state.

This importance of place is true of shore towns as well.  We spent time in various locales:

Asbury Park: This was early on, and I barely have memories of it.  We decided it was “a dump,” and had seen better days.  It had once been a glamour spot of sorts, with dance halls and gazebos.  Later in life I would go back there for some of the older architecture, Bruce Springsteen landmarks, and Puerto Rican food.

Ocean Grove: The place we went when we were young.  This town has fantastic Victorian homes, and an unusual role in the American history of religious revival camps.  Holly and called it an “old people’s town.”  Plus there was no boardwalk and everything was closed on Sundays.  The ocean was wonderful and the walks were easy, but we always wanted to be somewhere else.

Point Pleasant: I haven’t been in so long, but I think of this as one of the most typical and representative of New Jersey shore towns.  Holly and I were OK with this place.

Seaside Heights: This for us was the best, especially for my sister.  It had lots of other young people, an active, retro-flavored boardwalk (I loved that game where you throw the ball up and try to have it land in the right slots for points), and the ocean water seemed rougher in a fun way.  Eventually we settled on going here each year.  Later the setting for Jersey Shore, the TV show.

I also went to some chess tournaments in Atlantic City (pre-gambling, quite run down), where I did very well, and when we were all grown we would meet up in Spring Lake, which is perhaps the actual nice shore town.  Belmar and Cape May also received earlier visits, and we would stop for root beer in Toms River.

Even in the early days it was exciting to drive from one town to the next, like in Europe crossing from Germany into Luxembourg.

I did a lot of reading on the beach, for instance tackling both LOTR and Karl Popper’s Open Society books.  In later years, Holly would be off with friends, and my mother and I would drive around, listening to Beatle songs on a weird 8-track tape that split up the songs when it changed tracks.

So early on I learned the idea of “local travel,” namely that a nearby trip can be no less fascinating.  I consider that one of the most important practical ideas you can imbibe, along with “regional thinker.”  I got them both quite young, and in a very convincing fashion.

GPT 4.5 on this blog

be me
be Marginal Revolution
daily links posted
commenters debating obscure economic theories
someone mentions Baumol’s cost disease
half the commenters triggered, half delighted
Tyler posts cryptic sentence about food trucks
“markets in everything” intensifies
realize you just spent two hours reading about medieval grain prices
mfw economics was the real marginal revolution all along

Monday assorted links

1. A new and thorough Manus report.  And Manus would be a huge liability risk in the United States.  And yup.  And double yup, when will the NYT cover Manus?  And from the Manus founder.

2. Stephen Kotkin on Trump and Ukraine (New Yorker).  So far one of the best pieces this year.

3. Greg Mankiw is right.

4. Which economists will be replaced by AIs? (lots of them)

5. On the Douthat-Rufo dialogue.

6. “Cuteservatives”?

7. At first I thought this was a joke: comedy club bans audience members with botox.

US AID, current status

After a 6 week review we are officially cancelling 83% of the programs at USAID.

The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States. In consultation with Congress, we intend for the remaining 18% of programs we are keeping (approximately 1000) to now be administered more effectively under the State Department.

That is from Marco Rubio.  Here is my earlier post on US AID.

An Economic Approach to Homer’s Odyssey: Part III

Published by Liberty Fund, by me, here is the third and final installment.  Excerpt:

“Below is a brief and simplified catalog of the major polities described in The Odyssey:

  • • Pylos and Sparta: Visited by Telemachus, superficially seem normal but they seem sadder on reflection and Sparta relies on intoxication to support public order.
  • • Ogygia, or Calypso: An unbearable paradise, there is no utopia.
  • • Phaeacia: Relatively well-run, inward-looking, passive-aggressive, “control freak” syndrome.
  • • The Lotus Eaters: Another unbearable “utopia.”
  • • The Cyclopes: Anarchistic, brutish, and the community is ineffective and unable to defend itself.
  • • Aeolus: A closed society, based on incest, hostile to outsiders, a more extreme and dysfunctional version of Phaeacia.
  • • Laestrygonia: Giants, they throw boulders and murder, and in some ways resemble the Cyclopes. Tendencies toward anarchy are widespread, and not confined to the Cyclopes.
  • • Aeaea (Circe): There is the bed of tyrannical but beautiful Circe, or life as a well-fed pig. Again, utopias are impossible and immortality would bore us.
  • • Cimmeria: Dark, bleak, and unloved by God. Possibly the default setting.
  • • The Underworld: Everyone is sad (and dead), yet they talk like actual humans and also tell the truth. Lesson: the living cannot escape artifice and deception.
  • • Ithaca: Usually wrapped up in war and revenge-taking, chaotic and lacking in trust and lacking in clarity about sovereignty. This is another one of the default options.
  • • Syria: Initially prosperous but wrecked by the arrival of avaricious merchants. Unstable.
  • • Crete: A diverse society of perfect trust, within a narrative of Odysseus-in-disguise, but it has no chance of existing.”

My overall goal has been to pull out the implicit “public choice” strands in Homer’s Odyssey.  It is very much a poem about politics, and the book is among other things a study in comparative politics.

Do read the whole essay, and here are parts one and two.

Redux, my 2021 Conversation with Mark Carney

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Excerpt:

COWEN: You grew up in Northwest Territories and also Alberta, so western Canada. How do you think that’s shaped your perspective on economies?

CARNEY: Well, the big thing I took from my time in Alberta is just, I mean, it made me a market believer because I’ll give you an example. I was born just north of what was then known as the tar sands, now known as the oil sands, this huge deposit of oil which was virtually impossible to get out of the ground, economically. It was sitting there literally on the surface, but to separate it from the sand was difficult. Very quickly over the course of as I was growing up, by the time I was an adult, the issue had been cracked. The ability to innovate and make a profit out of an opportunity.

COWEN: Your PhD thesis was called The Dynamic Advantage of Competition. Writing that thesis, what did you learn, not about the topic but about yourself?

CARNEY: I learned that I exhausted my capacity and desire to do game theory. In the end, the models were game theoretic. The explanations were rooted in case studies and some econometrics, but the models were formulized from a game theory perspective. I also learned that I wanted to do policy at some point as well.

There is much more at the link.

Will there be a British DOGE?

Highly controversial plans to revolutionise Whitehall by introducing performance-related pay, an accelerated exit process for under-performing mandarins and more digitalisation will be announced this week in what ministers say is a programme to “reshape the state” so it can respond to a new “era of insecurity”.

The proposed changes, to be announced by Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden, will inevitably provoke alarm and resistance from civil service unions, and be seen as the government using the current wave of global uncertainty as cover to drive through radical modernisation of civil service methods and culture…

While Whitehall departments have substantially grown in recent years – increasing by more than 15,000 since the end of 2023 – McFadden is expected to say working people have not seen improvements in their job opportunities, the safety of their neighbourhoods or the length of time they have to wait for NHS treatment when they are sick.

Indicating the scale of potential reform being considered, sources stressed that “delivering national security” could only be done with a full “renewal of the state”.

Most controversially, McFadden will set out a new “pay-by-results system learning from the best civil services globally, making sure the most senior officials responsible for the missions have their wages linked to the outcomes they achieve”, a government spokesperson said.

McFadden will also outline plans to speed up the removal from the service of civil servants judged as unable to meet current needs. A system of “mutually agreed exits” will be introduced to bring the civil service “more in line with the private sector”.

Here is more from The Guardian.