China Story of the Day
"Dad," said the 6-year old, "can we go to China?"
"Hmmm…maybe. Why do you want to go to China?"
"That’s where they make all the toys."
Many Worlds, Most Strange
Hugh Everett, the originator of the multiple worlds interpretation of quantum physics, was a strange fellow. He left physics when Neils Bohr refused to take his ideas seriously and went into defense work where he made millions. His son Mark Everett is lead singer for the Eels. A BBC documentary, Parallel Worlds, Parellel Lives looks at father and son:
They lived in the same house for nearly 20 years and barely spoke. The first
time Mark touched his father was when he found his stiffening corpse, still in
bed and still in the suit he always wore. Mark himself, unusually for a rock
star, wears a suit on stage. A devout atheist, Hugh told his wife to throw his
ashes out with the trash, which, after keeping them for a bit in a filing
cabinet, she duly did.
Hat tip to MetaFilter.
Addendum: Here’s an interview with Mark Everett about his father.
Conservative Pigs and Liberal Bonobos
Herb Gintis reviews Krugman on Amazon:
Krugman’s vision for the future has three key premises, all wrong.
First, he believes progressives can win on a platform of
redistributing from the rich. However, no one cares about inequality.
People care about injustice, unfairness, poverty, sexual predators,
family values, gay marriage, terrorism, and many other problems of
everyday life. People don’t care about Gini distributions and other
abstractions. Moreover, Krugman should know that if the wealth were
redistributed to the middle class, the US investment rate would fall,
since the rich save their money and it is translated into investment,
whereas the middle classes would spend their gains on consumption, thus
driving out investment. A "soak the rich" policy simply cannot work to
the advantage of the middle classes.Second, Krugman would strengthen the labor unions, which he
credits for their egalitarian effects. However, unions were strong only
when industry was highly non-competitive in such areas as automobiles
and steel. The oligopolistic character of mid-twentieth century
industry, with a few countries in the lead, made fighting over the
excess profits highly rewarding. With globalization, there are no
excess profits to be fought over. Thus, it is not surprising that most
successful unions in the USA are public service, not private (e.g.,
teachers, government employees). There is no future in unionism,
period.Third, Krugman believes that liberalism can be restored to its
1950’s health without the need for any new policies. However, 1950’s
liberalism was based on southern white racism and solid support from
the unions, neither of which exists any more. There is no future in
pure redistributional policies in the USA for this reason. Indeed, if
one looks at other social democratic countries, almost all are moving
from corporate liberalism to embrace new options, such as Sarkozy in
France (French socialists have the same pathetic political sense as
American liberals, and will share the same fate).I am sorry that we can’t do better than Krugman. There are very
serious social problems to be addressed, but the poor, pathetic,
liberals simply haven’t a clue. Conservatives, on the other, are
political sophisticated and hold clear visions of what they want. It is
too bad that what they want does not include caring about the poor and
the otherwise afflicted, or dealing with our natural environment.
Politics in the USA is no longer Elephants and Donkeys; it is now
conservative Pigs and liberal Bonobos. The pigs are smart but only care
about what’s in their trough. The Bonobos are polymorphous perverse and
great lovers, but will be extinct in short order.
Hat tip to PrestoPundit.
Back on the Streets
The Bureau of Justice Statistics has just released a new study, Pretrial Release of Felony Defendants in State Courts (pdf). The study is interesting reading if only to remind oneself how crime is concentrated among a small minority of repeat offenders. Nearly a quarter of released defendants, for example, fail to appear on the day of their trial; worse yet 17 percent of released defendants are rearrested for a new offense before their trial even begins. If 17 percent are rearrested you can be pretty sure that the percentage of releasees who have committed a new crime is much higher.
The BJS study also verifies my research with Helland showing that commercial bail and bounty hunters work well. Defendants released on commercial bail are less likely to fail to appear and are more likely to be recaptured if they do fail to appear compared to those released on their own recognizance or on a public bail system.
Markets in Everything: Think Tanks
Why buy votes when you can buy the Bay Area Center for Voting Research? The BACVR analyzes voting trends in California and nationwide; they are best known for their ranking of the most liberal and most conservative cities (pdf) in the nation. The founders, however, want out and are selling all of BACVR’s intellectual assets, including the organization’s web site, past research, and well-known name on eBay. The perfect Christmas gift for that political junkie on your list.
Of course some people believe that all think tanks are for sale.
Happy Thanksgiving
Our corn did prove well, and God be praised, we had a good increase of Indian corn, and our barley indifferent good, but our peas not worth the gathering, for we feared they were too late sown. They came up very well, and blossomed, but the sun parched them in the blossom. Our harvest being gotten in, our governor sent four men on fowling, that so we might after a special manner rejoice together after we had gathered the fruit of our labors. They four in one day killed as much fowl as, with a little help beside, served the company almost a week. At which time, amongst other recreations, we exercised our arms, many of the Indians coming amongst us, and among the rest their greatest king Massasoit, with some ninety men, whom for three days we entertained and feasted, and they went out and killed five deer, which they brought to the plantation and bestowed on our governor, and upon the captain and others. And although it be not always so plentiful as it was at this time with us, yet by the goodness of God, we are so far from want that we often wish you partakers of our plenty.
Edward Winslow, Plymouth in New England this 11th of December, 1621.
Non (Anti?) Sequitur of the Day
Speaking on why it would be a terrible mistake to overturn Washington DC’s 31-year old ban on handguns, Assistant police chief Alfred Durham said today:
The ban on handguns is a matter of life and death because 80% of the murders in DC are caused by handguns.
This Choir Does The Preaching!
let’s privatize, choice is the way
let corporations run our schools
let the free market make the rules
As sung by the Milton Friedman choir!
Hat tip to Mark Perry at Carpe Diem.
Dutch Treat
THE Dutch health minister, Ab Klink, is considering a recommendation to offer
free health insurance for life to anyone who donates a kidney for transplant.
The award would be quite valuable, worth about $1500 a year or $24,000 in present discounted value (30 yrs, 5% discount rate, no increase in health care costs). Becker and Elias predict a large increase in organ supply at $15,000 so the Dutch are in the ballpark for a good test. More here.
Thanks to Dave Undis of LifeSharers for the pointer.
Piling on Samuelson
Like Tyler, I think Samuelson has not done his homework.
Here is Paul Samuelson:
But financial panic engendered by the burst bubble of unsound U.S. and
foreign mortgage lending means that even a mammoth corporation like
General Electric would find it expensive now to finance a loan needed
to build a new and efficient factory.
Here is Jeffrey Immelt, chairman and chief executive of General Electric:
Q: What’s your opinion of the "credit squeeze" and the view that the US economy may be about to run into difficulties?
A: It’s clear there has been some bad lending behaviour [by banks] in the
US. But in the world as a whole, there is still a lot of liquidity.
Companies generally have strong balance sheets, giving them the ability
to borrow on reasonable terms….If you consider the problems in the credit markets, they will not have
an impact on the vast majority of GE’s business. In other words, the
overall effect on GE will be limited.
Yes, Immelt’s job is to be rosy but profits are strong at GE. I’d like to see some evidence for Samuelson’s statement.
Surgery vs. Drugs
Levitt and Dubner discuss bariatric surgery in their most recent NYTimes column. Writing on their blog (they or their publicist) say this:
Bariatric surgery is often the most effective treatment for the morbidly obese,
and with a mortality rate of around one percent, it isn’t terribly risky…
Not terribly risky!!! I consider a 1% chance of death to be very risky, perhaps worthwhile for some morbidly obese people but when 1 in every 100 patients doesn’t make it off the table that is not good odds.
What I find most interesting, however, is that I don’t think that any drug, even one with net benefits, could pass FDA trials with a mortality risk of 1%. Recall that Rezulin was pulled from the market when 63 out of 750,000 people developed liver problems (the actual number may have been higher of course but the numbers aren’t even close.)
It doesn’t make sense to regulate one source of risk at much higher rates than another source, given equal benefits. It’s quite possible, for example, that patients denied risky weight loss drugs turn to even riskier bariatric surgery. (I am not arguing this point here, I am explaining why efficiency requires that equal risks be regulated equally).
So if it doesn’t make sense to regulate one source of risk at much higher rates than another source, should surgery be regulated more or drugs less?
Repugnance is Repugnant
Many people find the idea of selling human organs for transplant to be repugnant which is why Roth argues that we should focus more on improving efficiency through kidney swaps. I’m all in favor of swaps and have also suggested that one argument in favor of no-give, no-take rules is that they are ethically acceptable to more people than organ sales.
Nevertheless, I think Roth assumes too quickly that repugnance is a constraint to be respected rather than an outrage to be denounced and quashed. People’s repugnance at inter-racial dating or homosexual sex is no reason to prevent free exchange – the same is true for organ donations. Repugnance itself can be repugnant.
Is it not repugnant that some people are willing to let others die so that their stomachs won’t become queasy at the thought that someone, somewhere is selling a kidney?
What people think repugnant can change rather quickly with changes in the status-quo. Adam Smith said that in his time there were "some very agreeable and
beautiful talents of which the possession commands a certain sort of
admiration; but of which the exercise for the sake of gain is
considered, whether from reason or prejudice, as a sort of public
prostitution." What were these talents that people in Smith’s time thought akin to prostitution? Acting, opera singing and dancing. How primitive, how peculiar.
In the not to distance future I think people will look back
on the present and think us
primitive and peculiar. Letting thousands of people die while organs that could have saved their lives were buried and
burned. So much unnecessary pain; all for fear of a little exchange. How primitive, how peculiar. How repugnant.
Econometrics Haiku
Here are some Econometrics Haiku from noted econometrician Keisuke Hirano.
Supply and demand:
without a good instrument,
not identified.
I relate to these especially:
T-stat looks too good.
Use robust standard errors–
significance gone.
and
From negation comes
growth, progress; not unlike a
referee report.
The Shortage of Transplant Organs
The Wall Street Journal has a front-page article and a debate between Julio Elias and Alvin Roth on alleviating the shortage of transplant organs. This interactive graphic was good at explaining the idea of kidney swaps. Elias and Roth should have discussed no-give, no-take rules and Lifesharers.
I will be speaking to Congressional and agency staff about the organ shortage this Thursday at noon (this event is not open to the public.)
Addendum: Transplant surgeon Arthur Matas, mentioned in the WSJ article, is no
libertarian but argues for live kidney sales in a new Cato Policy
Report.
Unintended Consequences meet Tragedy of the Commons
A decade ago, the saiga antelope seemed so secure that conservationists
fighting to save the rhino from poaching suggested using saiga horn in
traditional Chinese medicines as a substitute for rhino horn.Research commissioned by WWF at the Chinese University of Hong Kong in the
late 1980s found it to be as effective as rhino horn in fighting fevers, and in
1991 WWF began a campaign in Hong Kong to publicise it as an alternative. The
following year, the UN Environment Programme appointed WWF ecologist Esmond
Bradley Martin as its "special envoy" to persuade pharmacists across Asia to
adopt saiga horn (New Scientist print edition, 9 March 1991 and 3 October
1992).
And the result?
In 1993, over a million saiga antelopes roamed the steppes of Russia and
Kazakhstan. Today, fewer than 30,000 remain, most of them females. So many males
have been shot for their horns, which are exported to China to be used in
traditional fever cures, that the antelope may not be able to recover
unaided.
The tragedy here is that diversion would have been a good idea had the WWF understood some economics – for diversion to work you must divert to a privately owned resource.
Hat tip to MetaFilter.