Bad Statistics Lead to False Hope

Newspapers around the world are all agog with the story of a British Man, 25, ‘cured of HIV’; that headline from the normally reserved BBC.  Scot is first in world to beat HIV says, (can you guess?), the Glasgow Sunday Mail.  The more cosmopolitan, but doubly wrong, Medical News Today says, Man is Cured of AIDS.  Other newspapers are reporting that doctors are "stunned," "mystified" and wondering whether this man holds the key to curing AIDS.

The story is pathetically simple once one gets past the headlines.  A man tested positive for HIV, he took a lot of vitamins and just over a year later tested negative (several times).  Now what are you going to believe that he cured himself of HIV or that the first test was wrong?  HIV tests have high accuracy but when millions of people take these tests it’s an easy bet that there will be significant numbers of false positives.

It is even possible that in low-risk populations there will be more incorrect diagnoses than correct ones!  Doctors may be stunned but to a statistician results like this are banal.  Unfortunately, in about a dozen articles that I took a look at, many doctors were quoted (sadly, even the skeptical doctors were skeptical for the wrong reasons – they think the guy must still have HIV!) but not a single statistician.  For the correct statistics see here or my earlier post, Why Most Published Research Findings are False, which analyzes a different application of the same idea.

Sex on the Margin

Sexual preferences are primarily biological in origin.  But sexual choice is about preferences and constraints.  Raise the price of sex with women and more men will choose to have sex with other men – that’s what happens in prisons.

In a remarkable paper, Andrew Francis (a graduate student at the University of Chicago) examines how AIDS has changed sexual choice.  With admirable precision, Francis lays out the price of sex:

…it is thousands of times more likely that a male would get HIV having sex with a man than having sex with a woman.  In terms of AIDS-related mortality, the expected cost of having unprotected sex once with a man is almost $2000, while the expected cost of having unprotected sex once with a woman is less than a dollar.

Thus AIDS changes the price of sex, do we observe changes in choice?  Francis wants to be careful about causality so he uses a clever instrumental variables approach.  He reasons that knowledge of AIDS and thus responsiveness to price is correlated with knowing someone who has AIDS and that knowing someone who has AIDS is exogeneous to other factors influencing sexuality.  Unfortunately, it appears that he only has information on whether a relative has AIDS and genetic factors mean exogeneity is unlikely to hold.  In fact, we would probably expect that simply knowing someone with AIDS is positively correlated with being homosexual (especially in 1992 when the survey was taken).   

Indeed, Francis finds, as expected, that women who have a relative with AIDS are more likely to be engage in homosexual acts and identify as being homosexual.  But Francis finds that men who have a relative with AIDS are significantly less likely to:

…have had sex with a man during the last sexual event…have had a male sexual partner in the last year… say they are sexually attracted to men…rate having sex with someone of the same gender as appealing…[or] think of themselves as homosexual or bisexual.

The tendency to greater homosexuality among women and less among men is exactly what the economic theory predicts given how AIDS affects the price of sex.  Genetic and social factors will have greater difficulty resolving this bifurcation so I think Francis has the upper-hand on the argument, although there may be counter-arguments based on the gay-uncle theory).

Importantly, note also that Francis finds that not only is sexual choice malleable, as the prison story I opened with suggests, but so are sexual desire and identity.  At least on the margin!  (A point that non-economists are likely to miss.)

Thanks to Emily Oster for the pointer.

Is Religion Rational?

Is Religion Rational? The Economics of Faith is the title of a debate to be held between my colleagues Larry Iannaconne and Bryan Caplan.  The debate will be on Wed. Nov. 16, 6:30 pm in the front ballroom of Student Union Building II at George Mason University-Fairfax.  The debate is free and open to the public.  I think it is going to be a great debate (I will moderate).  Among the sorts of things to be discussed are:

Is religion rational, irrational, or distinct from rationality?  What does economics have to say about religion?  Why is religion demanded and supplied?  What effect does religion have on economic, social and political outcomes?  How does an understanding of religion affect our understanding of economics and politics?

Markets in Everything

Organic cigarettes.  Henry Sicignano, American Spirit’s vice president of marketing, explains his purpose succintly:

"Our company’s greatest challenge – also
our greatest opportunity – is to expose smokers to our chemical-free,
all-natural tobacco products…"

I also liked this classic bit of statistical illusion:

With a market share of less than 1 percent
of the total U.S. cigarette business, Santa Fe is undaunted by the
behemoths that are their competition. "Natural American Spirit
cigarettes are the fastest growing brand in the United States,"
Sicignano reports.

(Groups which are small are often the fastest growing, also the fastest declining.)

Abortion Access and Risky Sex

Jonathan Klick (a co-author of mine) and Thomas Stratmann (a colleague at GMU) have written an interesting paper on abortion and risky sex among teenagers.  From their conclusion:

Incentives matter. They matter even in activities as primal as sex, and they matter even among teenagers, who are conventionally thought to be relatively myopic. If the expected costs of risky sex are raised, teens will substitute toward less risky activities such as protected sex or abstinence. In addition to modeling the decision making processes of teenagers, this insight is important in other contexts as well. Many public policies can be improved by recognizing the sensitivity of teenage sexual decisions to costs and benefits.

We study one set of policies in this paper. We show that increasing the cost of abortion for teens lowers the insurance value of abortion. This induces teenage girls to avoid risky sex, which will likely have the effect of lowering pregnancy rates, abortion rates, and birth rates among this group of individuals. While these positive effects alone might not justify parental involvement laws, they presumably should not be ignored in the debate. Behavior is not static, and claims based on the assumption of static behavior are flawed.

Sponsor an African Business

Charitable organizations have long made it possible to sponsor a child in a poor country.  Kiva lets you sponsor a business in a poor country.

By choosing a business on our website and then lending money online to
that enterprise, you can "sponsor a business" and help the world’s
working poor make great strides towards economic independence.
Throughout the course of the loan (usually 6-12 months), you can
receive monthly email updates that let you know about the progress
being made by the small business you’ve sponsored. These updates
include reports on loan repayment progress, photos of new capital
equipment, narratives on business growth and standard of living
improvements, and more. As loans are repaid, you will get your original
loan money back.

Kiva has recently been discovered by the web and so they are currently out-of-businesses to sponsor (which is a good sign), but it’s a great idea and I intend to sponsor a business as soon as one becomes available.

Thanks to Pablo Halkyard for the pointer.

Adverse Selection at Wal-Mart

Wages for low-wage workers have been flat in recent years but health care costs have been increasing.  For a company like Wal-Mart, which pays many of its workers modest wages but does offer a reasonable health insurance plan, this is an invitation to adverse selection.  As the value of the wage component of the Wal-Mart benefit package has declined relative to the value of the health insurance component Wal-Mart has attracted more workers who want the job for the health benefits, i.e. sicker workers.  Reed Abelson writing in the NYTimes notes:

The Wal-Mart work force reflects a growing fear of many employers that the
people who work for them are increasingly at risk for health problems. Many of
Wal-Mart’s employees are obese, the company says, and a result is rapidly rising
numbers of cases of diabetes
or heart
disease. The prevalence of these diseases among Wal-Mart employees is
increasing much faster than the national average, it says.

"The low-income population generally is not as healthy and does not engage as
much in preventive care," said Diane Rowland, executive director of the Kaiser
Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured. A risk that a company like Wal-Mart
faces, especially when it competes with smaller retailers that offer no
insurance at all, Ms. Rowland said, is attracting too many workers who want the
job primarily for the health coverage.

Wal-Mart’s health care costs are rising faster than their revenues.  Other companies are trying to shift some of the cost of health care onto their workers but Wal-Mart’s workers are already paying more than the national average so Wal-Mart may try to reverse adverse selection by adjusting their work and benefit package.  An internal memo suggests that:

…the company could require all jobs to include some
component of physical activity, like making cashiers gather shopping carts. It
also recommends redesigning and expanding benefits to appeal to a different type
of worker, someone more interested in buying a home, say, than in getting health
insurance.

Wal-Mart will probably be pilloried for this sort of thinking but you can hardly blame them when the workers are engaging in almost the identical actions in reverse.  The more fundamental problem is the tying of insurance to work, a problem for which I am afraid there no win-win solution.

Comments are open.

Addendum: Rey Lehmann offers excellent commentary.

Strange Tabarrok Trivia

My brother, Nicholas Tabarrok, is the producer of the apocalyptic, biblically inspired, Left Behind movies. Left Behind – The World at War just opened in 3,200 screens across America.  Haven’t seen it at your local multiplex?  That’s because the executive producers opened the movie in churches, harking back to a model of movie distribution that used to be common in the 1950s.  The movie has also been released near-simultaneously on DVD.  Here’s a review of the DVD.

Left Behind — The World at War (Sony, $25): The third installment in the popular Christian-themed apocalyptic dramas based on the Left Behind
series of novels by Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins. Forgoing a theatrical
release, this latest edition was screened over the weekend at about
3,200 churches around the country.

This time, the Antichrist
(Gordon Currie), now the head of the world government, taints freshly
published Bibles with biological weapons. Lou Gossett Jr. plays the
U.S. president. Extra features include a "making of" documentary, a
surprisingly funny gag reel and enjoyable commentary with Currie and
producers Nicholas Tabarrok and Andrew van Heerden (who also co-wrote
the film).

The secret history of the minimum wage

It’s no surprise that progressives at the turn of the twentieth century supported minimum wages and restrictions on working hours and conditions.  Isn’t this what it means to be a progressive?  Indeed, but what is more surprising is why the progressives advocated these laws.  A first clue is that many advocated labor legislation "for women and for women only."

Progressives, including Richard Ely, Louis Brandeis, Felix Frankfurter, the Webbs in England etc., were interested not in protecting women but in protecting men and the race.   Their goal was to get women back into the home, where they belonged, instead of abandoning their eugenic duties and competing with men for work.

Unlike today’s progressives, the originals understood that minimum wages for women would put women out of work – that was the point and the more unemployment of women the better! 

Much more on the secret history of the minimum wage in Tim Leonard‘s paper, Protecting Family and Race: The Progressive Case for Regulating Women’s Work.

Goodbye Samizdat

Printers have a special place in the history of liberty.  It is very disturbing, therefore, to learn that documents printed on color printers from Xerox, HP and other manufacturers contain secret government codes identifying the time, date and serial number of the printer.  No, I am not kidding.  These codes can be read under magnifying glass and special light.  The Electronic Frontier Foundation broke one of the codes and is pursuing more information. 

Would the Berlin Wall have fallen if East European governments had access to this kind of technology twenty years ago? 

Amazon

Don’t forget that you can benefit Marginal Revolution, at no cost to yourself, by clicking on the Amazon link at the bottom of the right column or any book link and then making purchases.  Of course, if you would like to contribute directly you can do so via either the Amazon or PayPal "tip jars" at the top left.  Thanks! 

Housing Economics

The NYTimes Magazine has an excellent article on the housing market based around a discussion of the development firm Toll Brothers.  Bob Toll the president of the firm is predicting that US housing prices will converge with those in Europe.

"In Britain you pay seven times your annual income for a home; in the
U.S. you pay three and a half." The British get 330 square feet, per
person, in their homes; in the U.S., we get 750 square feet. Not only
does Toll say he believes the next generation of buyers will be paying
twice as much of their annual incomes; in terms of space, he also seems
to think they’re going to get only half as much. "And that average,
million-dollar insane home in the burbs? It’s going to be $4 million."

Toll agrees with Glaeser et al. that the key force driving up prices is zoning and growth regulations.  In New Jersey it now takes Toll Brothers up to two million dollars in legal fees and ten years in time to get the permits necessary to build. 

Susan Wachter, a housing economist at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, has an interesting public choice insight about why zoning is worse in Europe.

European towns also have less incentive to encourage development,
Wachter says, because they generally do not, unlike their American
equivalents, depend on their local tax base to pay for education and
services, which tend to be federalized.

This implies that towns in states that reduce their reliance on the property tax – often done, as in CA, in order to "equalize" school funding or other expenditure – will soon restrict development.  Go to it graduate students.

Lots of other interesting material on the organization of the industry.

Domino

Domino2_1The Undercover Economist invited me to chat about bounty-hunters after a screening of Domino, the new film "about" Domino Harvey, upper-crust British fashion model turned LA bounty hunter.  Alas, I never met Domino although I did once meet her bail-bondsman boss.

Unfortunately, Domino is only nominally about Domino Harvey – we get the message early on when Domino throws a knife half-way through a car’s front windshield (nfw imo) and then does a lap-dance to get out of a Mexican standoff.  By the time Tom Waits shows up as an angel we are long aware that this ain’t no biopic.

Thus if you are searching for information on the real thing read my paper or watch Dog: The Bounty Hunter which at least is "reality television."  (By the way, long-time readers will know that my research on bounty hunters has gone beyond the armchair.  Nevertheless, I cannot hold a candle to the bravery of the Undercover Economist.)

I won’t complain about the movie too much, however, as Domino does have plenty of violence, rock and roll, and sex served up with verve and hyperkinetic style.  And any movie with Keira Knightley will not fail to hold my interest at least some of the time.