What ever happened to Fleming and John?

Fleming and John made two of my favorite CDs the excellent Delusions of Grandeur and the even-better The Way We Are.  In the words of one reviewer:

Vocalist Fleming McWilliams’s voice soars from a waifish whisper to a Joplin-esque
wail to operatic diva, often in the same song. Multi-instrumentalist
John Painter assembles a dizzying palette of sounds, from buzzy,
riff-heavy guitars to horns, accordion, Middle Eastern percussion, and
theremin, which yields a general sense of weirdness–all set in a
perfectly pop context–while the Love Sponge String Quartet add sonic
depth and a Van Dyke Parks quality to several arrangements.

The lyrics are also great.  When these albums appeared in the mid 1990s I thought these guys were going to be superstars and yet I’m about the only person I know who knows about them.  Although they can be labeled pop/rock almost none of their songs follows a pop/rock formula and that may have reduced airplay.  Their official website hasn’t been updated in years.  If you run out and buy their albums or blog about them perhaps we can create enough economies of scale to induce a new album.

Deterrence

I am in Michigan today speaking to a large group of judges on criminal
deterrence.  It should be a fun talk, judges are good listeners (or at
least they are good at pretending to listen) but I did have a dream
last night in which hundreds of judges were banging their gavels
shouting at me "guilty, guilty, guilty."  Damn conscience.

Coinidentally, some of my work on crime was featured in the latest Economic Scene
column in the NYTimes (thanks Virginia!).  Here is my powerpoint presentation for the judges which surveys some of the new literature on
crime and deterrence (the notes page in the powerpoint provides some
references and calculations).

Yes Virginia, I do believe in the Commerce Clause

Fafnir does constitutional law.

"Insolent pot!" says Giblets. "Be more vendible!"
"Giblets why are you yellin at that pot plant?" says me.
"Giblets
is trying to turn it into commerce," says Giblets. "But buying and
selling it is too much work. He wants it to be commerce NOOOOOWWW!"

"Silly
Giblets, everything is commerce!" says me. "Let’s step into this
maaaagical schoolbus and we will learn all about Our World Of Commerce!"…

This snowman is not commerce. But we can make him commerce with this ol top hat we found… and if we just believe!
Now all the children of the world clap your hands an say together now:
"I do believe in an expanded Commerce Clause, I do believe in an
expanded Commerce Clause!"

Hooray, now our snowman is
commercial an alive an singin an dancin around! "Happy birthday!" says
the snowman. He is quickly arrested and detained. Commercial snowmen
are strictly controlled by the Department of Snowman Security.

Should only the blind vote?

Psychologist Alexander Todorov of Princeton University
had volunteers look at black-and-white photographs of House and Senate
winners and losers from elections in 2000 and 2002, and the competing
candidates prior to the 2004 contests. The faces had to be unknown to
the participants; images of Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., John
McCain, R-Ariz., and John Kerry, D-Mass., for example, were immediately
eliminated.

“It was just on facial appearance, it could not be influenced by any other information,” Todorov said in an interview.

The study (reported here) found that the candidate perceived as more competent was
the winner in 72 percent of the Senate races and 67 percent of the
House races.

The primary distinguishing factor appears to be that voters do not like babyfaced men (a round face, large eyes, small nose, high forehead and small chin).
Competency appears to be associated with facial maturity.  But are the voters correct in their biases?  It would appear not:

In fact, studies by Zebrowitz and others have shown that
babyfaced men are actually more intelligent, better educated, more
assertive and apt to win more military medals than their mature-looking
counterparts.

Research in the area of facial impressions has implications for
political marketing, social decision-making and even the democratic
process, Zebrowitz believes. "The data we have suggest that we’re not
necessarily electing better leaders – people who are actually more
competent, though we are electing people who look the part."

Randall Parker at FuturePundit opines:

Democracy is flawed because humans are shallow and superficial.
Maybe blind voters make better decisions. Anyone up for restricting the
voting franchise to the blind only? Ugly talented candidates would fare
much better. Think about it.

Open Source Economics Models

Mark Thoma at Economist’s View is creating a repository for open source economics models.  The idea is to emulate open source software by releasing a beta model to the world and inviting others to improve it.   Mark has contributed a very nice paper on social insurance that could be expanded upon, Brad DeLong has contributed two beta models on finance topics, and I have contributed some very preliminary notes and a touch of Mathematica code on the implications of uncertainty about one’s own tastes for savings decisions and other behavior (an interesting idea but one I have not had the technical skills to exploit).  The models can be found in the right hand column of Economist’s View.

Private Prisons and Prison Growth

The fireworks were flying at the conference on prisons.  The audience, not to mention the opposing panel, were vehemently opposed to all prisons.  I’m in favor of ending the war on drugs and emptying the prisons of non-violent offenders but one speaker argued that 80 percent of the people in prison ought to be released – sure, if we bring back the penal colony.

Later I was chastised for referring to inmates – don’t you understand, I was told, they are people.

All very fine and well but I’d had enough when one speaker blamed the massive increase in prisons over the past twenty five years on private prisons.  This is a hard square to circle because private prisons today house less than 7 percent of the prison population.  Obviously, the increase in prisons has been almost entirely in the public sector and has been driven primarily not by nefarious profiteers or even by prison bureaucracies but by crime and the public’s demand for crime control.

A more sophisticated version of the argument can be found in the comments section of my last post.  It is true that a private prison could lobby for tougher sentences in order to boost demand for its product.  It’s hard to take this too seriously, however.  Do we think that contracting out garbage pickup is a bad idea because the garbage men will lobby for wasteful packaging?  Moreover, the problem becomes less serious the more private prison firms there are because with more companies each will gain less from lobbying for say tougher sentences in general

Finally, we have to compare with the current situation.  The prison guard unions typically have monopolies and do lobby for tougher sentences.  The California Correctional Peace Officers Association, for example, has spent millions shamelessly creating a front of victim’s rights groups who campaign against drug rehabilitation programs instead of jail, revising the three strikes law, and reducing sentences.   

Despite the fireworks, or maybe because I woke a few people up, I am invited back today to speak on three strikes.

Private Prisons and Government Contracting

Today, I will be debating the value of private prisons at the National Debate on Prisons and Punishment.  I intend to say the following:

1) Many studies (see also Changing the Guard) find that private prisons are cheaper than comparable public prisons.  Operating costs savings are a modest but not insubstantial, about 10-15 percent per year.

2) We should not be surprised that private prisons are
cheaper.  Mueller (2003), for example, looks at 71 studies
comparing public and private firms from Australian airlines, to German mail
delivery, to Indian manufacturers. In
only 5 of 71 studies were public firms found to be more efficient. In 56 studies private firms were
more efficient (the remaining studies found no difference).  Tellingly, the private firms were most efficient in the least regulated industries.

3)  Having said that, there are still potential problems with prison privatization and a puzzle that needs to be faced.  Prison privatization is really a misnomer.  What is really going on is contracting out and there at least two problems with contracting out.

a)  You get what you contract for. If the contract says cheaper prisons and nothing else – you will get cheaper prisons and nothing else. Contracts must cover quality as well as quantity.

Quality is not always easy to measure so contracting
out must be accompanied by investments in technology for contract monitoring
and output measuring. 

b)  In part as a reaction to the above problem there is the problem of governmentalization of the private sector.  Governmentalization occurs when the contract is written so that the private firm is restricted to duplicate the public firm, thus precluding innovation.  Some private prison contracts have gone so far as to detail the type of toilet paper to be used in the prison!

4) I think these problems can be addressed. For example, we should be contracting over outputs not inputs i.e. over the number of inmates who learn to read rather than the
provision of "reading programs."  (The British and Australians do this better than the U.S.)

Contracting out also requires an investment in technology for measuring outputs carefully. E.g.
recidivism rates.

With good contracting much more is possible from prison
privatization than lower costs including more innovation in prison management, better training
programs, reduced recidivism etc.

5)  But here is the puzzle.  If the reason for contracting out is that public prisons are run poorly, why should we expect government to do a better job at writing contracts?

I have some ideas on this but comments are open.

Cereal Terrorism

The Wa Post has a good piece on how the administration’s terrorism statistics have been trumped up.  The article also sheds light on the workings of bureaucracy.  Here’s the most ridiculous example.

More than a year before the 9/11 attacks the FBI runs across some Arabs stealing Kellogg’s Cornflakes.  The FBI doesn’t give a damn about cornflakes so they let them go.  Sixteen months later come the attacks and now Arabs are hot property so the FBI rounds them up again, asks them a few questions about terrorism (making this a terrorism investigation), and charges them with conspiracy to possess stolen property.  No terrorism charges are ever filed but the three grocers remain on the federal list of successfully prosecuted terrorism cases.

For this we need the Patriot Act?

The Rise of Alex

The NameVoyager lets you type in a name and see the number of babies per million that name was given to from 1900 to 2003.  Below is Alex.  Note that the thickness, not the height, of the lines gives the relative use of that variant.

It’s unfortunate that the data only go as far forward as 2003 because obviously the popularity of Alex will have exploded after August 21 of that year.

Alex

Thanks to the Freakonomics blog via Amanda Agan for the pointer.

Interview with Milton Friedman

Here is a new interview with Milton Friedman.  I liked this from the introduction:

San Francisco seems an unlikely home for the man who in 1962 first proposed
the privatization of Social Security.

Asked why he dwells in liberalism’s den, Milton Friedman, 92, the Nobel
laureate economist and father of modern conservatism, didn’t skip a beat.

"Not much competition here," he quipped.

Clarence Thomas, alone but correct

Justice Thomas, dissenting:

Respondents Diane Monson and Angel Raich use marijuana that has never been
bought or sold, that has never crossed state lines, and that has had no
demonstrable effect on the national market for marijuana. If Congress can
regulate this under the Commerce Clause, then it can regulate virtually
anything–and the Federal Government is no longer one of limited and enumerated
powers.

See my colleague David Bernstein’s post at Volokh for more.

Textbook Socialism

Contra Tyler, the problem with the market for textbooks is not monopoly but monopsony, and a peculiar kind of monopsony at that.  Twenty states, including the big three, California, Florida and Texas are "adoption states" where a bureaucratic committee of so-called experts chooses which textbooks are to be used in all state schools (non state-approved textbooks are not funded).

Centralized adoption encourages politicization.  Interest groups of all stripes lobby for their pet issue to be included or their pet peeve to be removed.  As a result, textbooks tend to get longer but blander and dumber.  Not only must all textbooks contain appropriate numbers of men and women, blacks and whites, Indians Native-Americans and Caucasians – all doing gender-neutral, politically correct activities – in California you can’t even mention ice cream because it’s fattening.

The adoption system, by the way, didn’t become politicized it was born of politics.  It began during Reconstruction when Southern states demanded central control of textbook adoption so they could require textbooks to write about "the war for Southern Independence" instead of say the civil war.

The necessity of passing through the state hurdle creates a winner take-all-market. Navigating the committees and their thousands of requirements takes
years of preparation –  it can cost $20 million just to create a textbook proposal.  Thus, in this case, monopoly is caused by monopsony.

The solution is to get rid of state-wide adoption systems altogether and let the teachers decide – preferably in a fully funded voucher system.

The spiritual economist?

The masseuse was working on my chakra’s (or something like that) when she said:

"Has anyone told you that you are great today?  I can tell that you have a lot of loving energy.  You’re a very giving person."

"Wow," I replied, "no one has ever said that.  I’m an economist."

"Oh," she replied, pausing slightly, "I guess I was wrong."