My Conversation with Carl Zimmer

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary:

He joins Tyler to discuss why it took scientists so long to accept airborne disease transmission and more, including why 19th-century doctors thought hay fever was a neurosis, why it took so long for the WHO and CDC to acknowledge COVID-19 was airborne, whether ultraviolet lamps can save us from the next pandemic, how effective masking is, the best theory on the anthrax mailings, how the U.S. military stunted aerobiology, the chance of extraterrestrial life in our solar system, what Lee Cronin’s “assembly theory” could mean for defining life itself, the use of genetic information to inform decision-making, the strangeness of the Flynn effect, what Carl learned about politics from growing up as the son of a New Jersey congressman, and much more.

Here is an excerpt:

COWEN: Over time, how much will DNA information enter our daily lives? To give a strange example, imagine that, for a college application, you have to upload some of your DNA. Now to unimaginative people, that will sound impossible, but if you think about the equilibrium rolling itself out slowly — well, at first, students disclose their DNA, and over time, the DNA becomes used for job hiring, for marriage, in many other ways. Is this our future equilibrium, that genetic information will play this very large role, given how many qualities seem to be at least 40 percent to 60 percent inheritable, maybe more?

ZIMMER: The term that a scientist in this field would use would be heritable, not inheritable. Inheritability is a slippery thing to think about. I write a lot about that in my book, She Has Her Mother’s Laugh, which is about heredity in general. Heritability really is just saying, “Okay, in a certain situation, if I look at different people or different animals or different plants, how much of their variation can I connect with variation in their genome?” That’s it. Can you then use that variability to make predictions about what’s going to happen in the future? That is a totally different question in many —

COWEN: But it’s not totally different. Your whole family’s super smart. If I knew nothing about you, and I knew about the rest of your family, I’d be more inclined to let you into Yale, and that would’ve been a good decision. Again, only on average, but just basic statistics implies that.

ZIMMER: You’re very kind, but what do you mean by intelligent? I’d like to think I’m pretty good with words and that I can understand scientific concepts. I remember in college getting to a certain point with calculus and being like, “I’m done,” and then watching other people sail on.

COWEN: Look, you’re clearly very smart. The New York Times recognizes this. We all know statistics is valid. There aren’t any certainties. It sounds like you’re running away from the science. Just endorse the fact you came from a very smart family, and that means it’s quite a bit more likely that you’ll be very smart too. Eventually, the world will start using that information, would be the auxiliary hypothesis. I’m asking you, how much will it?

ZIMMER: The question that we started with was about actually uploading DNA. Then the question becomes, how much of that information about the future can you get out of DNA? I think that you just have to be incredibly cautious about jumping to conclusions about it because the genome is a wild and woolly place in there, and the genome exists in environments. Even if you see broad correlations on a population level, as a college admission person, I would certainly not feel confident just scanning someone’s DNA for information in that regard.

COWEN: Oh, that wouldn’t be all you would do, right? They do plenty of other things now. Over time, say for job hiring, we’ll have the AI evaluate your interview, the AI evaluate your DNA. It’ll be highly imperfect, but at some point, institutions will start doing it, if not in this country, somewhere else — China, Singapore, UAE, wherever. They’re not going to be so shy, right?

ZIMMER: I can certainly imagine people wanting to do that stuff regardless of the strength of the approach. Certainly, even in the early 1900s, we saw people more than willing to use ideas about inherited levels of intelligence to, for example, decide which people should be institutionalized, who should be allowed into the United States or not.

For example, Jews were considered largely to be developmentally disabled at one point, especially the Jews from Eastern Europe. We have seen that people are certainly more than eager to jump from the basic findings of DNA to all sorts of conclusions which often serve their own interests. I think we should be on guard that we not do that again.

And:

COWEN: If we take the entirety of science, you’ve written on many topics in a very useful way, science policy. Where do you think your views are furthest from the mainstream or the orthodoxy? Where do you have the weirdest take relative to other people you know and respect? I think we should just do plenty of human challenge trials. That would be an example of something you might say, but what would the answer be for you?

I very much enjoyed Carl’s latest book Air-Borne: The Hidden History of the Air We Breathe.

Germany fact of the day

German borrowing costs surged by the most in 17 years on Wednesday, as investors bet on a big boost to the country’s ailing economy from a historic deal to fund investment in the military and infrastructure.

The yield on the 10-year Bund surged 0.21 percentage points to 2.69 per cent, its biggest one-day move since 2008, with markets braced for extra government borrowing.

Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz late on Tuesday agreed with the rival Social Democrats (SPD) to exempt defence spending above 1 per cent of GDP from Germany’s strict constitutional borrowing limit, set up a €500bn off-balance sheet vehicle for debt-funded infrastructure investment and loosen debt rules for states.

Here is more from the FT, noting that crowding out is still “a thing.”  Of course it is wrong, or at least not obviously correct, for the article to report that “investors bet on a big boost to the country’s ailing economy…”  I would sooner regard this as bad news for German consumption, naming that trying to address some of their problems will involve significant opportunity costs.  Share prices did go up, and in part you can think of this as a transfer of resources from German individuals to defense and infrastructure firms.  You might think additional German defense spending is necessary, as I do, but still that does not boost living standards.  The additional infrastructure might, let us hope they are able to find ways to cut other spending along the way, surely it is not all super-efficient?

Janan Ganesh’s latest FT Op-Ed is titled “Europe must trim its welfare state to build a warfare state,” let us hope they can make that work.  So far I am waiting to see the evidence.

Wednesday assorted links

1. Some new survey results on work from home.

2. Digital doppelgangers.

3. Liu Jiakun wins the Pritzker Prize, photos at the link.

4. The ideology of AI governance.  Can AI rule be interpretable to humans?  Weird stuff, don’t worry I don’t understand it either.

5. Three Wikipedia pages for great economists.

6. Robert Mundell singing on the David Letterman show.  And the direct YouTube links.

The Role of Unrealized Gains and Borrowing in the Taxation of the Rich

Of relevance to some recent debates:

We have four main findings: First, measuring “economic income” as currently-taxed income plus new unrealized gains, the income tax base captures 60% of economic income of the top 1% of wealth-holders (and 71% adjusting for inflation) and the vast majority of income for lower wealth groups. Second, adjusting for unrealized gains substantially lessens the degree of progressivity in the income tax, although it remains largely progressive. Third, we quantify for the first time the amount of borrowing across the full wealth distribution. Focusing on the top 1%, while total borrowing is substantial, new borrowing each year is fairly small (1-2% of economic income) compared to their new unrealized gains, suggesting that “buy, borrow, die” is not a dominant tax avoidance strategy for the rich. Fourth, consumption is less than liquid income for rich Americans, partly because the rich have a large amount of liquid income, and partly because their savings rates are high, suggesting that the main tax avoidance strategy of the super-rich is “buy, save, die.”

Here is the full piece by Edward G. Fox and Zachary D. Liscow.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

Should OneQuadrillionOwls be worried?

IMO this is one of the more compelling “disaster” scenarios — not that AI goes haywire because it hates humanity, but that it acquires power by being effective and winning trust — and then, that there is a cohort of humans that fear this expansion of trust and control, and those humans find themselves at odds with the nebulously part-human-part-AI governance structure, and chaos ensues.

It’s a messy story that doesn’t place blame at the feet of the AI per se, but in the fickleness of the human notion of legitimacy. It’s not enough to do a good job at governance — you have to meet the (maybe impossible, often contradictory) standards of human citizens, who may dislike you because of what you are or what you represent in some emotional sense.

As soon as any entity (in this case, AI) is given significant power, it has to grapple with questions of legitimacy, and with the thorniest question of all — how shall I deal with people who are trying to undermine my power?

Here is the relevant Reddit thread.  Change is tough!

Tuesday assorted links

1. Perplexity, Deutsche Telekom, and an AI smartphone.

2. GPT 4.5 and Bishop Berkeley!

3. Stocks vs. flows, blah blah blah you still can compare two numbers.

4. “That men once stood before the Rokeby Venus and gawped means nothing to us.

5. GDP forecasts getting worse.

6. Australian who blood saved the lives of 2.4 million babies dies.  James Harrison, RIP.

7. Ezra Klein with Ben Buchanan, on AI, and politics (NYT).

8. How well is DOGE polling?

9. Good summary and review of Stubborn Attachments.

New results on AI and lawyer productivity

From a new piece by Daniel Schwarcz, et.al., here is part of the abstract:

This article examines two emerging AI innovations that may mitigate these lingering issues: Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG), which grounds AI-powered analysis in legal sources, and AI reasoning models, which structure complex reasoning before generating output. We conducted the first randomized controlled trial assessing these technologies, assigning upper-level law students to complete six legal tasks using a RAG-powered legal AI tool (Vincent AI), an AI reasoning model (OpenAI’s o1-preview), or no AI. We find that both AI tools significantly enhanced legal work quality, a marked contrast with previous research examining older large language models like GPT-4. Moreover, we find that these models maintain the efficiency benefits associated with use of older AI technologies. Our findings show that AI assistance significantly boosts productivity in five out of six tested legal tasks, with Vincent yielding statistically significant gains of approximately 38% to 115% and o1-preview increasing productivity by 34% to 140%, with particularly strong effects in complex tasks like drafting persuasive letters and analyzing complaints. Notably, o1-preview improved the analytical depth of participants’ work product but resulted in some hallucinations, whereas Vincent AI-aided participants produced roughly the same amount of hallucinations as participants who did not use AI at all.

Of course those are now obsolete tools, but the results should all the more for the more advanced models.

How Bureaucratic Practices Preserve Elite Multigenerational Wealth

Here is a new paper from Doron Shiffer-Sebba, I found this most amusing but yes tragic too:

How do wealthy families preserve their fortunes across generations? A historic peak in wealth inequality in the United States has inspired research on how economic elites benefit from markets, tax rates, and legal entities. However, the ongoing practices through which families maintain their fortunes across generations are less understood. Using six months of ethnographic observations at a wealth manager for the top 0.1 percent, as well as interviews with the manager’s clients and a wider sample of managers, I argue that wealthy families adopt what I call “bureaucratic practices”—activities like meetings, presentations, and signing documents—to preserve wealth intergenerationally. After erecting legal entities such as corporations, trusts, and foundations, wealth managers help wealthy families implement bureaucratic practices. These practices, which privilege bureaucratic form over substance, constitute a crucial behavioral layer atop the legal infrastructure, facilitating a greater degree of wealth preservation compared with using entities alone. Thus, preserving wealth at the top should be understood not merely as a set of discrete transfers from parents to children, but as an enduring multigenerational process of professional socialization that introduces new behaviors into family life.

Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

Male coaches increase the risk-taking of female teams—Evidence from the NCAA

Highlights from the article:

The coach’s gender has a sizable and significant effect on the team’s risk-taking, a finding that is robust to an instrumental variable approach.

Women’s teams with a male head coach make risky attempts 6 percentage points more often than women’s teams with a female head coach.

The difference is persistent within games and does not change with intermediate performance.

Risk-taking has a positive effect on winning a game and teams with a female coach would win more often if they chose risky attempts more often.

The gap in risk-taking of female teams by their coach’s gender is the greater, the more experienced their head coach is.

That is from a new paper by René Böheim, Christoph Freudenthaler, and Mario Lackner.

Monday assorted links

1. Increased (Platform) Competition Reduces (Seller) Competition.

2. GPT 4.5 on Bernard Williams.  It is quite funny on the AI skeptics, I might add.

3. AI bookmarks.  And AI-generated sheet music for classical music.  And the Luddites they ain’t.

4. 2005 redux, my idea of how to clean up the house.

5. I never knew the median voter theorem was this powerful.

6. How is Australian state capacity doing?

7. Why do attractive female servers earn more in tips?

8. Planned architecture for Tirana.

What I’ve been reading

1. Eric Topol, Super Agers: An Evidence-Based Approach to Longevity.  Longevity research goes mainstream!  Very clearly written, well argued, and focused on the science.  I cannot pretend to evaluate the details of the material, but this seems a step ahead of the other, typically less serious books on the same topic.

2. Daniel Dain, A History of Boston, 772 pp., clearly written and consistently interesting.  Most of all one receives the sense of Boston as a place with a long history of radical ideas.  Has it moved away from that tradition or cemented it in?  I find that more and more of America has little acquaintance with New England and its history, and this book is one good way to remedy that.  Remember Rt.128?  Paul Revere?

3. Stephen Macedo and Frances Lee, In Covid’s Wake: How Our Politics Failed Us.  A reasonable, evidence-based, non-crazy account of governance failures and excesses during the Covid crisis.  For me there was not so much new here, but I am glad to see saner voices moving into the discourse.

4. Making and Meaning: The Wilton Diptych, National Gallery of London.  If you want to learn about a historical figure (in this case Richard II), read a book about an art work associated with them.

5. Zaha Hadid, Complete Works 1979-Today.  Architecture, plus excellent preliminary sketches of the works.  The Weil am Rhein works are my favorite of what I have seen by her.  Exactly the kind of picture book that will become more valuable in an age of strong AI.  Here are seventeen buildings by her.

John McWhorter, Pronoun Trouble: The Story of Us in Seven Little Words.  Mostly about actual pronouns, not the PC debates.

There is Paul Bluestein, King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency.

Sunday assorted links

1. A guy who doesn’t understand Paul Verhoeven.

2. Context is that which is scarce, AI edition.  And the most rapid change in human communication ever.  And the power of DeepSeek? Big if true.

3. “…male students are averse to majors with more female faculty but prefer those with more female students…”

4. Partial liberation from maternal human capital is a significant reason why American became such a land of opportunity.

5. Will Starfleet Academy become real in SF?

6. A useful guide to “How Poverty Fell.”