Category: Data Source
Staged homes sell for more than empty homes
We examine the economic impact of non-consumable visual cues through home staging on high-stakes housing transactions. Using hand-collected listing photos for 15,777 transactions and a machine-learning algorithm to detect furniture, we provide the first large-scale evidence that staged homes sell for roughly 10% more and one week faster than comparable homes without furniture. Our pre-registered online experiment establishes causality and uncovers mechanisms. We find that furniture clarifies spatial use, while decor enhances emotional attachment, jointly driving the higher willingness-to-pay. These findings demonstrate how visual cues impact high-stakes decisions and systematically shape valuations in the largest asset market for households.
That is from Puja Bhattacharya, et.al., via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
LDS fact of the day
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has grown 66% this century, fueled in part by a record-breaking number of convert baptisms in 2025.
The church had 10,752,986 members at the end of 1999. The church had 17,887,212 at the end of 2025, according to an annual statistical report released Saturday during the church’s 196th Annual General Conference.
Furthermore the growth is coming in every part of the world (as a qualifier I am not sure what the outflow is). Here is the full article, via Tyler Ransom.
Herbert Hoover is still underrated
We study the effects of large-scale humanitarian aid using novel data from the American Relief Administration’s (ARA) intervention during the 1921-1922 famine in Soviet Russia. We find that the allocation of relief closely tracked underlying food scarcity and was uncorrelated with subnational politics. We show that ARA rations reduced food prices, raised caloric intake, lowered the prevalence of relapsing fever, and increased rural birth cohorts. The aid benefited poorest peasants most and proved most effective in provinces with higher levels of human capital. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that, absent ARA relief, the 1926 population would have been 4.4 million lower.
That is from a new paper by Natalya Naumenko (my colleague), Volha Charnysh, and Andrei Markevich.
The Happiness Crash of 2020
From the still-active Sam Peltzman:
I document a sudden, sharp and historically unprecedented decline in self-reported happiness in the US population. It occurred during 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic, and mainly persists through 2024. This happiness crash spread across nearly all typical demographics and geographies. The happiest groups pre-Covid (e.g., whites, high income, well-educated and politically/ideologically right-leaning) tend to show the largest happiness reductions. The glaring exception is marital status, which has consistently been an important marker for happiness. The already wide happiness premium for marriage has, if anything, become slightly wider. With both married and unmarried reporting large declines in happiness the country has become segregated: slightly over half-the married adults-remain happy on balance; the unmarried, nearly half, are now distinctly unhappy. I also show that across a number of aspects of personal and social capital post-Covid deterioration is the norm, including a collapse of belief in the fairness of others and of trust in the US Supreme Court.
Here is the paper, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
China shock fact of the day
China’s share in US imports at 9% is back down to what it was right before China joined the WTO (2001).
Addendum: If you are curious, here is GPT on how much is now shipped through third countries.
U.S.A. fact of the day
New Penn-Wharton study shows per-capita federal spending on each age group:
Seniors: $43,700
Children and young adults: $4,300.
Here is more from Jessica Riedl.
Is Tinder actually OK?
Online dating apps have transformed the dating market, yet their broader effects remain unclear. We study Tinder’s impact on college students using its initial marketing focus on Greek organizations for identification. We show that the full-scale launch of Tinder led to a sharp, persistent increase in sexual activity, but with little corresponding impact on the formation of long-term relationships or relationship quality. Dating outcome inequality, especially among men, rose, alongside rates of sexual assault and STDs. However, despite these changes, Tinder’s introduction did not worsen students’ mental health on average and may have even led to improvements for female students.
That is from a new paper published in AEJ: Applied Economics, by Berkeren Büyükeren, Alexey Makarin, and Heyu Xiong.
International Comparison of Physician Incomes
We compare physician incomes using tax data from the United States, Canada, Sweden, and the Netherlands. Physicians are concentrated in the top percentiles of the income distribution in all four countries, especially in the United States and certain specialties. Physician incomes are highest in the United States, and a decomposition shows that this mainly reflects differences in overall income distributions, rather than physicians’ locations in those distributions. This suggests that broader labor market differences, and thus physicians’ outside options, drive absolute incomes. Shifting US physicians’ incomes to match relative positions in other countries’ distributions would only marginally reduce healthcare spending.
By Aidan Buehler, et.al., from a new NBER working paper.
Who profits from prediction markets?
It seems execution beats foresight:
Retail traders correctly forecast asset price direction yet lose money. Using 222 million prediction market trades with observable terminal payoffs, we decompose returns into a directional component (did the trader pick the right side?) and an execution component (did the trader get a favorable price?). Traders with above-random accuracy earn negative returns because they arrive late and pay unfavorable prices; traders with near-random accuracy profit through superior execution. These two dimensions of skill are nearly orthogonal (ρ ≈ 0.13), and split-sample tests confirm both are persistent. What separates profitable from unprofitable traders is not forecasting ability but execution: automated traders pay 2.52 cents less per contract than casual traders, and this gap alone accounts for the sign of returns across trader types. Being right and making money are not the same thing.
That is from Joshua Della Vedova. Via John de Palma.
Who is a victim?
Moral disagreement across politics revolves around the key question, “Who is a victim?” Twelve studies explain moral conflict with assumptions of vulnerability (AoVs): liberals and conservatives disagree about who is especially vulnerable to victimization, harm, and mistreatment. AoVs predict moral judgments, implicit attitudes, and charitable behavior—and explain the link between ideology and moral judgment (usually better than moral foundations). Four clusters of targets—the Environment, the Othered, the Powerful, and the Divine—explain many political debates, from immigration and policing to religion and racism. In general, liberals see vulnerability as group-based, dividing the moral world into groups of vulnerable victims and invulnerable oppressors. Conservatives downplay group-based differences, seeing vulnerability as more individual and evenly distributed. AoVs can be experimentally manipulated and causally impact moral evaluations. These results support a universal harm-based moral mind (Theory of Dyadic Morality): moral disagreement reflects different understandings of harm, not different foundations.
That is from a recent paper by Jake Womick, Emily Kubin, and Kurt Gray. Via the excellent, non-victimized Kevin Lewis.
Alternatives to 911
Almost a quarter-billion calls are placed to 911 each year in the United States. A large share of them involve social problems, not crimes or emergencies—yet police are dispatched in response. This review traces how the 911 emergency system’s institutional design shapes demand for police, who is excluded from or ill served by this system, and what alternatives exist, including nonemergency lines (with police response), government hotlines (211, 311, 988), civilian crisis teams, and community-based resources. Among the universe of municipal police departments with at least 100 sworn officers in 2020, covering 107 million US residents, police have absorbed broad social service functions, with the availability of formal alternatives restricted to the largest cities. The evidence suggests that the primacy of police reflects institutional reproduction more than public need. I propose priorities for future research.
That is from a new NBER working paper by Bocar A. Ba.
How frequent are price bubbles?
We examine the historical frequency of stock market booms, crashes, and bubbles in the United States from 1792 to 2024 using aggregate market data and industry-level portfolios. We define a bubble as a large boom followed by a crash that reverses the market’s prior gains. Bubbles are extremely rare. We extend the industry-level analysis of Greenwood, Shleifer, and You (2019) through 2024 and replicate their findings out of sample using Cowles Commission industry data from 1871 to 1938. Booms do not reliably predict crashes, but they do predict higher subsequent volatility, increasing the likelihood of both large gains and large losses.
That is from a new NBER working paper by William N. Goetzmann, Otto Manninen, and James Tyler.
The Vietnam War and racial integration
The Vietnam draft conscripted hundreds of thousands of young Americans into an integrated military. I combine near-random draft lottery variation with administrative voter data to study the long-run racial integration effects of coerced national service. Black and Native American veterans became more likely to marry white spouses, identify as Republicans, and live in more-integrated neighborhoods. Improved economic standing may partly mediate these effects. Effects are larger for Southerners and are precisely null for white veterans. Coerced military service generates substantial but asymmetric cross-racial political convergence and racial integration: Vietnam-era service caused about 20 percent of affected cohorts’ interracial marriages.
That is from a recent NBER working paper by Zachary Bleemer.
The value of good high schools
Improving education and labor market outcomes for low-income students is critical for advancing socioeconomic mobility in the United States. We use longitudinal data on five cohorts of 9th grade students to explore how Massachusetts public high schools affect the longer-term outcomes of students, with a special focus on students from low-income families. Using detailed administrative and student survey data, we estimate school value-added impacts on college outcomes and earnings. Observationally similar students who attend a school at the 80th percentile of the value-added distribution instead of a school at the 20th percentile are 11% more likely to enroll in college, are 31% more likely to graduate from a four-year college, and earn 25% (or $10,500) more annually at age 30. On average, schools that improve students’ longer-run outcomes the most are those that improve their 10th grade test scores and increase their college plans the most.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
New results on the economic costs of climate change
I promised you I would be tracking this issue, and so here is a major development. From the QJE by Adrien Bilal and Diego R Känzig::
This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1○C warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth model. Business-as-usual warming implies a present welfare loss of more than 30%, and a Social Cost of Carbon in excess of $1,200 per ton. These impacts suggest that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.
Here is an open access version. You may recall that earlier estimates of climate change costs were more like a five to ten percent welfare loss to the world. I do not however find the main results here plausible. The estimation is extremely complicated, and based on the premise that a higher global temperature does more harm to a region than a higher local temperature. And are extreme events a “productivity shock,” or a one-time resource loss that occasions some Solow catch-up? Is the basic modeling consistent with the fact that, while the number of extreme storms may be rising, the number of deaths from those same storms is falling over time? Lives lost are not the same as economic costs, but still the capacity for adjustment seems considerably underrated. What about the effects to date? The authors themselves write: “According to our counterfactual, world GDP per capita would be more than 20% higher today had no warming occurred between 1960 and 2019.” I absolutely do not believe that claim.
In any case, here is your update. To be clear, I do absolutely favor the development of alternative, less polluting energy sources.