Category: Law
The Value of De Minimis Imports
Section 321 of the 1930 Tariff Act allows up to $800 in imports per person per day to enter the US duty-free and with minimal customs requirements. Fueled by rising direct-to-consumer trade, these “de minimis” shipments have exploded yet are not recorded in Census trade data. Who benefits from this type of trade, and what are the policy implications? We analyze international shipment data, including de minimisshipments, fromthreeglobalcarriers andUS Customs and Border Protection. Lower-income zip codes are more likely to import de minimis shipments, particularly from China, suggesting that the tariff and administrative fee incidence in direct-to-consumer trade is pro-poor. Theoretically, imposing tariffs above a threshold leads to terms-of-trade gains through bunching, even in a setting with complete pass-through to linear tariffs. Empirically, bunching pins down the demand elasticity for direct shipments. Eliminating §321 would reduce aggregate welfare by $11.8-$14.3 billion and disproportionately hurt lower-income and minority consumers.
That is from a recent paper by Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal.
IP and unrealized capital gains (from my email)
I was thinking about the unrealized cap gains tax after Taylor Swift’s endorsement today and I think I see a new problem distinct from those you and Alex have raised so far. Maybe someone else has pointed this out, but I figured I’d write out the logic and see what you think.
I think there is a big problem of unrealized capital gains in terms of IP.
Much IP is monetized via licenses and royalties that have long term perpetuity like payments that could go up or down based on other market conditions which would directly affect the value of the asset for more than the income growth from the asset.
An example by way of Taylor Swift:
She is expected to make 200M+ off the streaming of her music.
Her music rights would likely be considered an asset. These music rights would likely be valued as a perpetuity or cash flows/ discount rate. Perplexity reported a range of 5-10% as common in the entertainment business meaning Taylor’s current streaming rights are currently worth between 2B and 4B. (200M/.1 and 200M/.05).
If Spotify/Youtube get better at selling ads and increase their reimbursement rate by 10% then Taylor would receive 220M next year and song collection would grow to be worth between 2.2B and 4.4B for an unrealized gain of 200M to 400M.
Taylor would owe 25% tax on this gain or between 50-100M which would be greater than her additional earnings of 20M.
What makes this doubly ironic is, would the federal government force Taylor to sell the rights to her music to pay the cap gains tax?
One thing I forgot to mention is what share of patents in the medical field + copywriters have that sort of payment structure? Where they get a license for a certain future amount of payments. If the stream of payments increases what happens to the unrealized capital gains tax?
There was that baseball player that got paid with that comically large future contract. Is that an asset too?
From Stephen Jonesyoung.
Facts about Britain
- Between 2004 and 2021, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the industrial price of energy tripled in nominal terms, or doubled relative to consumer prices.
- With almost identical population sizes, the UK has under 30 million homes, while France has around 37 million. 800,000 British families have second homes compared to 3.4 million French families.
- Per capita electricity generation in the UK is just two thirds of what it is in France (4,800 kilowatt-hours per year in Britain versus 7,300 kilowatt-hours per year in France) and barely over a third of what it is in the United States (12,672 kilowatt-hours per year). We are closer to developing countries like Brazil and South Africa in terms of per capita electricity output than we are to Germany, China, Japan, Sweden, or Canada.
- Britain’s last nuclear power plant was built between 1987 and 1995. Its next one, Hinkley Point C, is between four and six times more costly per megawatt of capacity than South Korean nuclear power plants, and four times as expensive as those that South Korea’s KEPCO has agreed to build in Czechia.
- Tram projects in Britain are two and a half times more expensive than French projects on a per mile basis. In the last 25 years, France has built 21 tramways in different cities, including cities with populations of just 150,000, equivalent to Lincoln or Carlisle. The UK has still not managed to build a tramway in Leeds, the largest city in Europe without mass transit, with a population of nearly 800,000.
- At £396 million, each mile of HS2 will cost more than four times more than each mile of the Naples to Bari high speed line. It will be more than eight times more expensive per mile than France’s high speed link between Tours and Bordeaux.
- Britain has not built a new reservoir since 1992. Since then, Britain’s population has grown by 10 million.
- Despite huge and rising demand, Heathrow annual flight numbers have been almost completely flat since 2000. Annual passenger numbers have risen by 10 million because planes have become larger, but this still compares poorly to the 22 million added at Amsterdam’s Schiphol and the 15 million added at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle. The right to take off and land at Heathrow once per week is worth tens of millions of pounds.
- The planning documentation for the Lower Thames Crossing, a proposed tunnel under the Thames connecting Kent and Essex, runs to 360,000 pages, and the application process alone has cost £297 million. That is more than twice as much as it cost in Norway to actually build the longest road tunnel in the world.
That is from the new study of British stagnation by Ben Southwood, Samuel Hughes, and Sam Bowman.
The US Has Low Prices for Most Prescription Drugs
The US has high prices for branded drugs but it has some of the lowest prices for generic drugs in the world and generic drugs are 90% of prescriptions. I’ve been saying this for years but here is the latest study:
U.S. prices for brand-name originator drugs were 422 percent of prices in comparison countries, while U.S. unbranded generics, which we found account for 90 percent of U.S. prescription volume, were on average cheaper at 67 percent of prices in comparison countries, where on average only 41 percent of prescription volume is for unbranded generics. U.S. prices for brand-name drugs remained 308 percent of prices in other countries even after adjustments to account for rebates paid by drug companies to U.S. payers and their pharmacy benefit managers.
Branded drugs are expensive but that is why we have insurance which works reasonably well, albeit far from perfectly. For example, insurance and the low price of generics is one reason that out-of-pocket costs for medical are low in the United States.
If you don’t want to pay high prices for branded drugs just use generics! As I wrote 20 years ago, in what was called a heartless and cruel post:
People talk about the high price of pharmaceuticals as if high prices lasted forever. In fact, within a year of the expiration of a pharmaceutical’s patents, prices will typically fall by more than 50 percent as generic producers enter the market. Patents nominally last for 20 years but the effective patent life is much lower because patents are typically granted years before a product has cleared FDA review. The effective patent life of the average new pharmaceutical in the 1990s averaged just 12 years [new reference for today, 13.5 years, AT]. Competition from competing but non-infringing pharmaceuticals makes the de facto patent life even shorter.
Thus, my response to the seniors and others clamoring for lower pharmaceutical prices is to be more patient. Does this sound harsh? Consider this, the people who are demanding price controls are not simply asking for lower drug prices they are asking for lower prices on the newest drugs. Lower prices for drugs introduced 15 years ago are already here. Remember, those drugs were recently considered the very best modern medicine has to offer, so it’s not like I am expecting those who can’t afford the newer medicines to go back to using leeches.
Price controls or other such plans such as reimportation may bring cheaper pharmaceuticals for a short period but we will then have a much smaller supply of new drugs forever. Only the shortsighted would buy that prescription.
Don’t fail the marshmallow test people!
People get upset when I say just use generics–shouldn’t everyone have access to the very best pharmaceuticals! Yes! But that illustrates another point–these drugs are worth the price!
Hat tip: Steve.
Scholars in support of the Moraes Brazil decision against X
Here is the link, in Portuguese, here is part of a Claude translation:
We, the undersigned, wish to express our deep concern about the ongoing attacks by Big Tech companies and their allies against Brazil’s digital sovereignty. The Brazilian judiciary’s dispute with Elon Musk is just the latest example of a broader effort to restrict the ability of sovereign nations to define a digital development agenda free from the control of mega-corporations based in the United States. At the end of August, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court banned the X platform from Brazilian cyberspace for failing to comply with court decisions that required the suspension of accounts that instigated right-wing extremists to participate in riots and occupy the Legislative, Judicial, and Governmental palaces on January 8, 2023. Subsequently, President Lula da Silva made clear the Brazilian government’s intention to seek digital independence: to reduce the country’s dependence on foreign entities for data, AI capabilities, and digital infrastructure, as well as to promote the development of local technological ecosystems. In line with these objectives, the Brazilian state also intends to force Big Tech to pay fair taxes, comply with local laws, and be held accountable for the social externalities of their business models, which often promote violence and inequality.
These efforts have been met with attacks from the owner of X and right-wing leaders who complain about democracy and freedom of expression. But precisely because digital space lacks internationally and democratically decided regulatory agreements, large technology companies operate as rulers, deciding what should be moderated and what should be promoted on their platforms. Moreover, the X platform and other companies have begun to organize, along with their allies inside and outside the country, to undermine initiatives aimed at Brazil’s technological autonomy. More than a warning to Brazil, their actions send a worrying message to the world: that democratic countries seeking independence from Big Tech domination risk suffering disruptions to their democracies, with some Big Tech companies supporting far-right movements and parties.
The Brazilian case has become the main front in the evolving global conflict between digital corporations and those seeking to build a democratic and people-centered digital landscape focused on social and economic development. Technology companies not only control the digital world, but also lobby and operate against the public sector’s ability to create and maintain an independent digital agenda based on local values, needs, and aspirations. When their financial interests are at stake, they work happily with authoritarian governments. What we need is sufficient digital space for states to direct technologies by putting people and the planet ahead of private profits or unilateral state control.
All those who defend democratic values must support Brazil in its quest for digital sovereignty. We demand that Big Tech cease their attempts to sabotage Brazil’s initiatives aimed at building independent capabilities in artificial intelligence, public digital infrastructure, data governance, and cloud services. These attacks undermine not only the rights of Brazilian citizens but the broader aspirations of all democratic nations to achieve technological sovereignty. We also call on the Brazilian government to be firm in implementing its digital agenda and to denounce the pressures against it. The UN system and governments around the world should support these efforts.
Signed by Acemoglu, Zucman, Varoufakis, Cory Doctorow, Morozov, Mazzucato, Piketty, and many others. Somehow no one is talking about this petition and its embrace of censorship?
Via Pedro. And you will find some media coverage in Portuguese here.
Mexico political challenge of the day
When Mexicans arrive at voting booths next year to elect their judges for the first time, they face a unique and daunting task.
In the capital Mexico City, voters will have to choose judges for more than 150 positions, including on the Supreme Court, from a list of 1,000 candidates that most people have never heard of. For each of the 150 posts, space will be allotted for voters to write out individually the names of up to 10 preferred candidates.
Without makeshift solutions such as dividing up the judges into subdistricts, it could take 45 minutes just to fill in the ballot papers, one analyst estimated. Even with such fixes, voters will still have to choose from many dozens of unfamiliar names.
“It’s impossible,” said Jaime Olaiz-González, a constitutional theory professor at Mexico’s Universidad Panamericana. “In no country, not even the most backward, have they proposed a system like this.” The vote will be the culmination of a drive by the country’s leftwing nationalist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to radically overhaul a branch of the state that has frequently angered him by blocking his plans.
Here is more from Christine Murray from the FT. Garett Jones…telephone!
The Economic Consequences of the French Wealth Tax
By Eric Pichet, here is the abstract:
Despite attempts to ‘unwind’ the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (‘Solidarity Wealth Tax,’ the French wealth tax) during the last legislature (2002-2007), ISF yields had soared by 2006, jumping from €2.5 billion in 2002 to €3.6 billion. Analysis of the economic consequences of this ISF wealth tax has raised the following conclusions: Tax collection costs remain low (around 1.6% of proceeds); Not raising the threshold in line with inflation between 1998 and 2004 created windfall revenues for the French State of €400 million in FY 2004 alone; ISF fraud mainly involving an under-assessment of property assets has stabilised over time at around 28% of total revenues, equivalent; (had the legal framework remained unchanged) to a shortfall for the State of €700 million in 2004; Capital flight since the ISF wealth tax’s creation in 1988 amounts to ca. €200 billion; The ISF causes an annual fiscal shortfall of €7 billion, or about twice what it yields; The ISF wealth tax has probably reduced GDP growth by 0.2% per annum, or around 3.5 billion (roughly the same as it yields); In an open world, the ISF wealth tax impoverishes France, shifting the tax burden from wealthy taxpayers leaving the country onto other taxpayers.
Via Fredrik. I would describe this work as a very loose estimate, nonetheless pointing in the proper direction.
Are “anchor babies” underrated?
Did you worry about the 2020 fall in U.S. fertility? Well, ponder this:
Birth rates in Canada and the USA declined sharply in March 2020 and deviated from historical trends. This decline was absent in similarly developed European countries. We argue that the selective decline was driven by incoming individuals, who would have travelled from abroad and given birth in Canada and the USA, had there been no travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, by leveraging data from periods before and during the COVID-19 travel restrictions, we quantified the extent of births by incoming individuals. In an interrupted time series analysis, the expected number of such births in Canada was 970 per month (95% CI: 710-1,200), which is 3.2% of all births in the country. The corresponding estimate for the USA was 6,700 per month (95% CI: 3,400-10,000), which is 2.2% of all births. A secondary difference-in-differences analysis gave similar estimates at 2.8% and 3.4% for Canada and the USA, respectively. Our study reveals the extent of births by recent international arrivals, which hitherto has been unknown and infeasible to study.
That is from a new paper by Amit N. Sawant and Mats J. Stensrud, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
Equality Act 2010
The UK’s Orwellian sounding Equality Act 2010 is strikingly Marxist. It demands equal pay for work of equal value where these are defined as follows:
A’s work is equal to that of B if it is like B’s work, rated as equivalent to B’s work, or of equal value to B’s work.
A’s work is like B’s work if A’s work and B’s work are the same or broadly similar, and such differences as there are between their work are not of practical importance in relation to the terms of their work.
…A’s work is rated as equivalent to B’s work if a job evaluation study— gives an equal value to A’s job and B’s job in terms of the demands made on a worker
…A’s work is of equal value to B’s work if it is neither like B’s work nor rated as equivalent to B’s work, but nevertheless equal to B’s work in terms of the demands made on A by reference to factors such as effort, skill and decision-making.
In short, supply and demand have been replaced by judges and labor boards with the authority to deem which jobs are “equal” and therefore should be paid equally. And the labor boards do so based on vague and subjective considerations that do not change with changing circumstances. Imagine replacing “jobs” with “condiments” and having judges decide whether ketchup and mustard should be priced equally because they are similar, broadly comparable, or rated equivalent in terms of the effort, skill, and decision-making that went into their production.
You think I am joking. I am not. Here’s an example of a case just decided in the UK.
More than 3,500 current and former workers at Next have won the final stage of a six-year legal battle for equal pay.
An employment tribunal said store staff, who are predominantly women, should not have been paid at lower rates than employees in warehouses, where just over half the staff are male.
The tribunal ruled that retail workers and warehouse workers were “equal” and thus had to be paid equally. Next replied that they paid everyone market wages. Verboten!
Next argued that pay rates for warehouse workers were higher than for retail workers in the wider labour market, justifying the different rates at the company.
But the employment tribunal rejected that argument as a justification for the pay difference.
According to the tribunal’s ruling, between 2012 and 2023, 77.5% of Next’s retail consultants were female, while 52.75% of warehouse operators were male.
The tribunal accepted that the difference in pay rates between the jobs was not down to “direct discrimination”, including the “conscious or subconscious influence of gender” on pay decisions, but was caused by efforts to “reduce cost and enhance profit”.
It ruled that the “business need was not sufficiently great as to overcome the discriminatory effect of lower basic pay”.
No one is alleging that male and female warehouse workers were paid unequally or that male and female retail workers were paid unequally or that there was any direct or indirect discrimination. The only claim is that warehouse workers, who are less likely to be female than retail workers, earn more than retail workers. And since these jobs have been judged “equal,” the company has violated Equality Act 2010.
Who could have predicted that jobs as disparate as warehouse and retail jobs might one day be deemed “equal.” Yet because Next failed to foresee such lunacy they are now required to pay millions in back wages to their retail employees. Software engineers, particularly in AI, are currently in high demand. A British firm looking to hire them may hesitate to raise wages, fearing that a future ruling could classify software engineers as “equal” to a larger, lower-paid group like HR administrators. Such a decision could easily push the firm into bankruptcy.
The warehouse workers were almost 50% female (47.25%). So females were not barred from the higher paying jobs. The fact that 77.5% of the retail workers were female suggests that retail work has special appeal to females relative to males and thus that there are compensating differentials. Any of the three female plaintiffs could have taken jobs in the warehouse. If the jobs are equal and the warehouse jobs pay more this is, on the plaintiffs’ theory, “puzzling”. [Or, as Ayn Rand would say, blank out.]
In fact, the court case reveals that Next was struggling to fill the warehouse positions and offered any retail employee—including the plaintiffs—the opportunity to switch to warehouse work. On cross-examination, one of the plaintiffs admitted that, given the unpleasant conditions in the warehouse—described by the court as “the drone of machinery,…vibration, alarm sirens and the screeching of machinery, wheels and rollers, continuously present in all areas”—the warehouse job “did not seem particularly attractive” compared to the greater autonomy and more appealing environment of the retail job. The plaintiff added that she would only have considered the warehouse job if it paid “a lot more money.”
Thank goodness for the men and women who were willing to take such jobs for only a little more money! It should not shock that different people have different preferences over jobs, just as they have different preferences over ice cream. In particular, it will perhaps surprise only the judges to learn that men tend to be more wage-focused and “women are relatively more attracted to employers with low pay but high values of nonpay characteristics (NBER 32408).” The court, however, recoiled from this idea, noting that if they were to take demonstrated preferences seriously this would be tantamount to applying “an unfettered free market model of supply and demand.” The horror.
Now consider how the jobs were deemed “equal”. On the left is the job evaluation report for claimant Amanda Cox. The specific categories and numbers are not important; what is important is that the jobs are rated across 11 categories, and the point-scores are then added to get a total score at the bottom.
Amusingly, the evaluators emphasize that they use equal weighting across the categories. Of course, they did—because “equal” is synonymous with fair, right? An unequal weighting would surely be discriminatory!
I am not making this up:
Any scheme which has as its starting point – “This qualification is paramount” or that “This skill is vital” is nearly always going to be biased or at least open to charges of bias or discrimination.
Thus, if you think that a skill is vital for a job, that’s discrimination!
(Notice also that equal weighting is just another form of weighting. Given the subjective nature of both the categories and the points assigned, equal weighting holds no inherent superiority or objectivity.)
But no matter—we have yet to get to the best part. The evaluators selected three warehouse workers and assessed them using the same metric. For example, Amanda Cox was compared to warehouse worker Calvin Hazelhurst, resulting in the table on the right.
Can you spot something surprising in this table? I’ll give you a moment.
The obvious conclusion any reasonable person would draw from this table is that the jobs are clearly not equal. Amanda’s total score is 440, while Calvin’s is 340. 440 ≠ 340. Not even close! In nearly every category—except (no surprise!) physical demands and working conditions—the retail job requires more points, aka “skill and responsibility”.
At this point, most people would stop and ask some critical questions. If the jobs differ so much across multiple dimensions, isn’t it clear that they are not equal? And why do jobs that seemingly require less “skill” pay more? Could it be that our point-score rating system is oversimplified? Maybe the market is telling us something that this crude scoring system isn’t capturing? Is it time to check our premises?
But not the evaluators! Oh, no. The evaluators are thrilled–because the fact that the jobs are unequal proves that they are equal!

War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength. UNEQUAL IS EQUAL.
Adam Smith had a much better understanding of wages in 1776 than UK judges have today.
The wages of labour vary with the ease or hardship, the cleanliness or dirtiness, the honourableness or dishonourableness, of the employment. Thus in most places, take the year round, a journeyman tailor earns less than a journeyman weaver. His work is much easier. A journeyman weaver earns less than a journeyman smith. His work is not always easier, but it is much cleanlier. A journeyman blacksmith, though an artificer, seldom earns so much in twelve hours, as a collier, who is only a labourer, does in eight. His work is not quite so dirty, is less dangerous, and is carried on in day-light, and above ground. Honour makes a great part of the reward of all honourable professions. In point of pecuniary gain, all things considered, they are generally under-recompensed, as I shall endeavour to shew by and by. Disgrace has the contrary effect. The trade of a butcher is a brutal and an odious business; but it is in most places more profitable than the greater part of common trades. The most detestable of all employments, that of public executioner, is, in proportion to the quantity of work done, better paid than any common trade whatever.
Today, the UK would convene a labor board to rule that the tailor and the weaver must be paid equally because they DO WORK OF EQUAL VALUE. Case closed.
Labor boards will inevitably lead to the misallocation of labor, diminishing both wealth and fairness. Severe misallocation may lead to further intervention, in the worst scenario, even to the allocation of labor by fiat. Politicization breeds division, rent-seeking, and a stagnant, unpleasant society.
More generally, it pains me that there is no recognition that the market is a discovery procedure, including the discovery of the value of different skills and people’s preferences over different jobs. No recognition that the market harnesses tacit knowledge and knowledge of particular circumstances of time and place–knowledge that is difficult to quantify, communicate, or communicate in a timely manner–and that “society’s economic problems are primarily related to adapting quickly to changes in these circumstances.” No recognition that a price is a signal wrapped up in an incentive.
I despair when I consider that these fundamental ideas are the foundation of our liberal, global, and prosperous civilization. On economics, as on free speech, the UK has entered the great forgetting.
Addendum: A special hat tip to Bruce Greig who brought this to my attention and had the receipts.
Should we keep the wealthy non-diversified? (from my email)
Byrne Hobart writes to me:
One of the purposes of inheritance taxes is to avoid compounding intergenerational wealth. But The Missing Billionaires points out that if all of America’s millionaires had put their money in broad market indices in 1900, their heirs would number 16,000 billionaires, even accounting for taxes, splitting estates among multiple children, etc.
So one of the forces that prevents compounding inequality is that rich people tend to have less diversified portfolios than the rest of us—they own a lot of whatever it is that made them rich! If we give them an incentive to stay undiversified, and to do so even when they’re quite old and thus not in a great position to monitor or manage their assets well, they’ll end up with suboptimal portfolios that are much more likely to lose most/all of their value than the average retirement account is. Given how much volatility can cut into returns (witness the 3x levered Microstrategy ETF that has lost 82% of its value in a year when Microstrategy itself doubled), it’s possible that the cost basis step-up actually contributes more to intergenerational economic mobility than the money collected by the estate tax itself, by encouraging them to white-knuckle their way through the last years of their life with all their eggs in one basket.
I’m not personally a fan of the estate tax or the step-up, for various reasons, but I found this argument fun nonetheless.
Speculative but interesting…
Why Indian firms don’t scale
Surveying the literature on the impact of labor regulation, we find that India’s firm-level labor regulations punish businesses in two ways. First, the regulations are too onerous, preventing firms from remaining competitive. While some sectors and large-scale industries might be able to comply with this regulatory overload, most regulations are imposed on firms with as few as 10 employees, disincentivizing firm growth and large-scale employment. Second, labor-related regulations tend to micromanage factory operations through uncertain enforcement by a labor inspection system, further discouraging firms from expanding. India’s labor laws do too much, too soon in a firm’s life cycle.
We argue that to scale manufacturing across industries and foster job creation, India needs to revise its stringent labor regulations. This paper begins by describing the predominance of small-scale firms, indicating the extent of informality in India’s manufacturing sector, which is well established in the literature. It then shows that India’s labor law tries to do too much; instead of merely setting standards, the statutes micromanage workplaces, colors, fonts, uniforms, and more by requiring permissions for a host of workplace activities such as changing the tasks of a worker. It argues that the laws apply too soon in firms’ life cycle—namely, at low employee thresholds (typically as low as 10 workers). Both these aspects increase labor and compliance costs and discourage firms from scaling. Next, the paper offers recommendations for reforms to stop disincentivizing firms from scaling—including streamlining labor laws, raising employee thresholds, optimizing inspections, and avoiding excessive reliance on criminal penalties to ensure compliance.
Kalshi wins
From an announcement, slightly edited by me:
Kalshi has defeated the CFTC, legalizing election markets in the US for the first time in 100 years. After years of battling with the US government, we won in court: the District Court of Columbia just ruled in our favor, legalizing trading on U.S. elections and overthrowing a long-time ban that has been standing since the Great Depression.
Honduras and its disputes
More importantly, Honduras is not just locked in a dispute with Silicon Valley billionaires, as the authors would lead you to believe. Other claimants against Honduras at the International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) include the Paiz family, one of the wealthiest in Guatemala, the U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase, and others from Honduras, Panama, Mexico, Chile, Norway, and the Caymans. More claims were brought by private energy companies after Castro’s 2022 reforms pushed out private investment to expand the state’s role in electricity production. Predictably, there are no signs of progress for Honduras’ crippled energy grid. The state-run National Electric Energy Company loses over $30 million every month, with debts amounting to more than 10 percent of Honduran GDP.
This is to say that Honduras’ current feud with Próspera is part of a pattern of reneging on obligations to investors and expanding state influence, not a one-time rectification of a coup by Silicon Valley billionaires.
Equally absent the article is any mention that the supposedly “center-left” Castro is a self-proclaimed socialist strongly aligned with Venezuela and, in shirking foreign investors and the US, following in its footsteps quite neatly. Castro has indeed gone so far as to remove Honduras from the ICSID over the massive list of outstanding claims against it—a move familiar to Venezuela, which left in 2012. The Honduran government’s rationale—that the ICSID favors corporations instead of states—is the same that Venezuela used. The practical effects of this move are limited, but the symbolic ones are meaningful. Honduras is branding itself as a bad place to do business.
Here is more from Snowden Todd.
Peer Approval to Address Drug Shortages
Reuters: Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drug Company said…that it is working with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to import and distribute penicillin in the country temporarily….Cuban’s Cost Plus will import Lentocilin brand penicillin powder marketed by Portugal-based Laboratórios Atral S.A.
There are two remarkable items in the above passage. First, there is a shortage of penicillin in the United States! Crazy. The second remarkable item is that the FDA has authorized the temporary importation of penicillin from Portugal. In other words, the FDA will accept the EMA’s authorization of penicillin as equivalent to its own, at least for the purposes of alleviating the shortage. That’s good. What is needed, however, is a more permanent form of peer-approval.
I have long advocated for peer approval or reciprocity for any drug or device approved in a peer country but notice that this form of peer approval is only for drugs already approved in the United States. Thus, the approval is really only for labeling and manufacturing, a pretty small ask.
Peer approval for imports would also help to discipline domestic firms who sometimes take advantage of monopoly power to jack up prices. Indeed, you may recall Martin Shkreli and the massive price increases for Daraprim (Pyrimethamine) to $750 a pill when the same pill was available in Europe for $1 or less and in India for 10 cents. Importation would have solved that problem entirely.
Banning Airbnb in NYC
- NYC is now a more expensive destination for visitors:
- The average hotel prices in New York City rose 7.4 percent over the past year (July 2023 to July 2024), compared with an only 2.1 percent increase nationally, according to data from CoStar.
- Despite the law’s promise, rent hits an all-time high and vacancy rates stay stagnant:
- Legislators claimed the law would protect affordable housing, yet rent climbed 3.4 percent during the first 11 months the law was enacted, according to StreetEasy, suggesting that other factors are driving up rent prices.
- The median asking price of rent downtown Manhattan over the past year reached a peak of $5,000 USD for the first time in history.
- The rent increase in New York City since the law took effect continues to outpace nearby cities like Boston, Chicago and Washington, D.C.
- Vacancy rates for apartments in New York City have remained virtually unchanged at 3.4 percent since the law took effect, according to Apartment List.
- New York City’s vacancy rates also continue to significantly lag behind Chicago, Boston and Washington, D.C.
Here is the full Airbnb blog post.