Category: Travel

AI-driven hotel planned for Las Vegas

A new, AI-driven hotel is getting set to open in Las Vegas, highlighted by a major presence at CES.

Philippe Ziade, CEO and founder of Growth Holdings, developer of the hotel, detailed the concept as we sat at the CES Otonomus booth display to discuss the venture.

“This is the first truly AI-powered hotel,” said Ziade. “The whole floor is interconnected.” 

The entire focus at the hotel is capturing and leveraging data.

“We create a virtual copy of the guest,” said Ziade. “There is an onboarding before coming to the hotel. We capture information and use AI to scrape the internet and then we track behavior while on property.”

Each guest would have a virtual assistant, which would track and retain that guest’s preferences, which could then be used for subsequent hotel stays.

Ziade said the Las Vegas property is the prototype hotel before national and global expansion of the concept to other locations, such as Dubai…

Due to the large number of variables, such as room sizes, locations, proximity and comfort features, the system is tuned to mix and match the features based on the perceived preferences of the coming hotel guest.

Does it know I want a lot of chargers, thin pillows, and lights that are easy to turn off at night?  Furthermore the shampoo bottle should be easy to read in the shower without glasses.  Maybe it knows now!  Here is the full story, via the excellent Samir Varma.

China fact of the day

China is loosening its visa policy and allowing some travelers to stay in the country for up to 10 days without obtaining the document.

The United States is among the dozens of countries eligible for the more lenient measure, part of a movement to ease restrictions and welcome back foreigners. The National Immigration Administration announced the change earlier this week.

To qualify for a 240-hour visa-free stay, travelers must transit through any of 60 airports, train stations or seaports in 24 provinces or regions, including such major destinations as Beijing, Shanghai and Sichuan…

One stipulation is the same, however. The China stop is technically for a layover, so you will need a reservation for a third country. For example, you can’t fly from New York to Beijing round-trip, but you could fly from New York to Bangkok to Beijing before returning home. Or from New York to Beijing to Bangkok.

“You will need to show your flight itinerary to show which third country you’re going to and that you’re going to leave within 10 days,” Peat said. “But that’s all you have to do.”

Here is the full story.

How to Visit India for Normies

In the comments to my post, India has Too Few Tourists, many people worried about the food, the touts and the poverty. Many of these comments are mistaken or apply only if you are traveling to India on the cheap as an adolescent backpacker (nothing wrong with that but I suspect the MR audience is different.) I have spent some time traveling in India including at times with my wife, who puts up with my wanderlust but appreciates a fine hotel, with my teenage children, and once with my elderly mother. So how should normies travel in India?

  1. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to do the tourist stuff first. The golden triangle, Delhi-Agra-Jaipur is great! There is no shame in following the beaten path.
  2. For the slightly more adventurous, branch out to Udaipur, my favorite city in India, where you can easily spend a week walking around and doing day trips. Add in Jodphur, stay at the Raas hotel and see the magnificent Mehrangarh fort and stepwell. Try out a tiger safari.
  3. India has the best hotels in the world. Depending on the season, you can stay in literal palaces for about the same as a good American or European hotel, say $250 a night.
  4. The food in the hotels is excellent and perfectly safe. The food in high-quality restaurants is perfectly safe. If you want, get some Dukoral in advance and carry some loperamide for extra protection.
  5. You can rent a comfortable, air-conditioned car with a driver (tell them Alex sent you) for less than it costs to rent a car in the United States. Your driver will pick you up in the morning, take you where you want to go, drop you off in the evening and disappear when not needed.
  6. The poverty and the dirt and the cows blocking traffic are not a reason to say away but a reason to go to India (drag me in the comments all you like, it is true). In Mumbai, I have seen seen a Ferrari followed by a bullock cart. Where else but in India? It’s important to see real poverty if only because you will appreciate your world all the more and wonder how to keep it. India is rapidly becoming richer. See living history while you still can.
  7. South India is much richer than North India and much less polluted. My Indian friend from Kerala had never seen a slum before he visited Mumbai.
  8. India is relatively safe. Of course with 1.4 billion people, bad things happen. Don’t let anecdotes deter you. Overall, it’s safer than the US or say Mexico. Tourists following the above won’t have any problems at all.
  9. Touts can be a hassle but are not a problem in the tourist sites. In other place, like walking old Delhi, either ignore them completely or hire a guide who will bat the others away.

Here is Tyler’s post on how to travel to India. Slightly more adventurous than what I have outlined but entirely consistent.

Here is a picture of Udaipur.

India has Too Few Tourists

In 2017, I wrote an article on India’s underperformance in tourism:

India is one of the most desirable tourist destinations in the world. Thirty-five [now 43, AT!] UNESCO World Heritage sites–among them the Taj Mahal, one of the “New Seven Wonders of the World”—attract a global audience. India’s many food, dance and religious cultures are enticing. The widespread availability of English speakers makes India a welcome destination not only for Americans, Canadians and the British but also for many Europeans and others who speak English as a second language. Prices in India are very reasonable for visitors from developed countries.

India has tremendous advantages as a producer of tourism, but its tourism sector is far too small. India is underperforming and in the process giving up tens of billions of dollars in foreign exchange revenue that could lift millions out of poverty.

The Economist concurs noting “a fabulous destination for foreign tourists does little to lure them.” Indeed, India had fewer tourists in 2024 than in 2017. Tunisia attracts more tourists than India! India did improve its visa process, which I complained about in 2017, but it could do much better:

To its credit, the government replaced the onerous process of applying for visas in person with online e-visas. But that was a decade ago and the process remains unpredictable and fiddly; it requires using a website that looks like it was designed during the dot-com boom. Most countries in South-East Asia and the Middle East have slicker sites. Many offer either visas on arrival or visa-free entry.

When I recently visited the UK I entered without being stopped or questioned by a single individual! In contrast, entering India can often take several hours and even with a visa there are forms that have to be filled out for no apparent reason or purpose. Moreover, exiting India is often more time consuming than entering! Yet when I visited India shortly after COVID our tour guide in Bundi was practically in tears as we were the first foreign tourists he had seen in over a year and the money was very welcome.

India should drop its visa requirements for US and European countries entirely and immediately. The tourism industry should be seen as an export industry. Countries go to great lengths to increase exports but India’s government does little to help its tourism industry despite the fact that it’s actually a huge export industry–far bigger than India’s export of pharmaceuticals for example!

Turkey has 55 million tourist visitors a year. That’s 5 times India’s rate which suggests that India could dramatically increase earnings from tourism. More tourists would be great for India and also great for the tourists!

Here is a picture of the fourth tallest statue in the world, in a tiny town in India that no one goes to. Amazing!

The importance of transportation for productivity

We quantify the aggregate, regional and sectoral impacts of transportation productivity growth on the US economy over the period 1947-2017. Using a multi-region, multi-sector model that explicitly captures produced transportation services as a key input to interregional trade, we find that the calibrated change in transportation productivity had a sizable impact on aggregate welfare, magnified by a factor of 2.3 compared to its sectoral share in GDP. The amplification mechanism results from the complementarity between transport services and tradable goods, interacting with sectoral and spatial linkages. The geographical implications are highly uneven, with the West and Southwest benefiting the most from market access improvements while the Northeast experiences a decline. Sectoral impacts are largest in transportation-intensive activities like agriculture, mining and heavy manufacturing. Our results demonstrate the outsized and heterogeneous impact of the transportation sector in shaping US economic activity through specialization and spatial transformation.

That is from a recent NBER working paper by A. Kerem Coşar, Sophie Osotimehin & Latchezar Popov.

Scott Alexander on chips (from the comments)

From this post on chip export bans:

Didn’t we have a conversation where you said Chinese AI was so terrifying that we couldn’t consider any AI slowing or pause, because all of our efforts had to be put into preventing China from beating us in AI? And when I discussed reasons that this might not be the right way to look at things, you said that no, beating China in AI was such a desperately important cause that we couldn’t worry about little things like that?

And now the Biden administration is actually doing something decisive to beat China in AI, and you’re splitting hairs about whether this is the exact most politically appropriate time?

That seems to be the real Scott from the IP address and his knowledge of our conversation.  Plus it sounds like Scott (apologies if it is not!).

I would say this: since I chatted with Scott I took a very instructive and positive trip to United Arab Emirates.  I am very impressed by their plans to put serious energy power behind AI projects.  If you think about it, they have a major presence in three significant energy sources: fossil fuels, solar (more to come), and nuclear (much more to come).  They also are not so encumbered by NIMBY constraints, whereas some of the American nuclear efforts have in the meantime met with local and regional stumbling blocks.  There really is plenty of empty desert there.

So I think America has a great chance to work with UAE on these issues.  I do understand there are geopolitical and other risks to such a collaboration, but I think the risks from no collaboration are greater.

This short tale is a good example of the benefits of travel.

And if you can get to Abu Dhabi, I urge you to go.  In addition to what I learned about AI, I very much enjoyed their branch of the Louvre, with its wonderful Greek statue and Kandinsky, among other works, not to mention the building itself.  The Abrahamic Family House, on a plaza, has a lovely mix of mosque, church, and synagogue, the latter of course being politically brave and much needed in the Middle East.  Here is Rasheed Griffith on Abu Dhabi.

My excellent Conversation with Stephen Kotkin

It was so much fun we ran over and did about ninety minutes instead of the usual hour.  Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary:

Tyler sat down with Stephen to discuss the state of Russian Buddhism today, how shamanism persists in modern Siberia, whether Siberia might ever break away from Russia, what happened to the science city Akademgorodok, why Soviet obsession with cybernetics wasn’t just a mistake, what life was really like in 1980s Magnitogorsk, how modernist urban planning failed there, why Prokofiev returned to the USSR in 1936, what Stalin actually understood about artistic genius, how Stalin’s Georgian background influenced him (or not), what Michel Foucault taught him about power, why he risked his tenure case to study Japanese, how his wife’s work as a curator opened his eyes to Korean folk art, how he’s progressing on the next Stalin volume, and much more.

And here is one excerpt:

COWEN: What did you learn from Michel Foucault about power, or indeed anything else?

KOTKIN: I was very lucky. I went to Berkeley for a PhD program in 1981. I finished in 1988, and then my first job was at Princeton University in 1989. In the middle of it, I went for French history, and I switched into Habsburg history, and then finally, I switched into Russian Soviet history. I started learning the Russian alphabet my third year of the PhD program when I was supposed to take my PhD exams, so it was a radical shift.

Foucault — I met him because he came to Berkeley in the ’80s, just like Derrida came, just like Habermas came, Claude Lévi-Strauss, the anthropologist, came through. It was California. They were Europeans, and there was a wow factor for them. Foucault was also openly gay, and San Francisco’s gay culture was extraordinarily attractive to him. It was, unfortunately, the epoch of the AIDS epidemic.

One time, I was at lunch with him, and he said to me, “Wouldn’t it be amazing if somebody applied my theories to Stalinism?” I’m sitting there, okay, I’m 23 years old. Imagine if you had traveled to Switzerland in the late 19th century, and you went up in those Engadin mountains, and you were at some café in the mountain air, and there’s this guy with a huge forehead and hair up in the air sitting there, and you went and introduced yourself. You said, “Hello, I’m Tyler,” and he said, “Hello, I’m Friedrich Nietzsche.” You would say, “Well, geez, this is interesting. I should have more conversations with you.”

So, that’s the experience I had. I had read Foucault in seminar because it was very fashionable to do so, obviously, especially at Berkeley, especially in a culture that tilts one way politically, and I think you’ll guess which way that might be. But I didn’t understand what he said, so I went up to him as a naïf with this book, Madness and Civilization, which we had been forced to read, and I started asking him questions. “What does this mean? What does this mean? What is this passage? This is indecipherable.”

He patiently explained to the moron that I was what he was trying to say. It sounded much more interesting coming from him verbally, sitting just a few feet away, than it had on the page. I was lucky to become the class coordinator for his course at Berkeley. He gave these lectures about the problem of the truth-teller in Ancient Greece.

It was very far removed from . . . I had no classical training. Yes, I had Latin in high school because I went to Catholic school, and it was a required subject. I started as an altar boy with the Latin Mass, which quickly changed because of what happened at Vatican II. But no Greek, so it was completely Greek to me. Forgive me, that wasn’t planned that I was going to say that. It just happened spontaneously.

Anyway, I just kept asking him more questions and invited him to go to things, and so we would have lunches and dinners. I introduced him to this place, Little Joe’s in Little Italy, part of San Francisco, which unfortunately is no longer there. It was quite a landmark back then, and then he would repair after dinner to the bathhouses in San Francisco by himself. I was not part of that. I’m neither openly nor closeted gay, so that was a different part of Foucault that I didn’t partake in, but others did.

Anyway, I would ask him these things, and he would just explain stuff to me. I would say, “What’s happening in Poland?” This is the 1980s, and he would say things to me like, “The idea of civil society is the opiate of the intellectual class.” Everybody was completely enamored of the concept of civil society in the ’80s, especially via the Polish case, and so I would ask him to elucidate more. “What does that mean, and how does that work?”

He told me once that class in France came from disease in Paris — that it wasn’t because of who was a factory worker, who wasn’t a factory worker, but it was your neighborhoods in Paris and who died from cholera and who didn’t die from cholera. A colleague of ours who was another fellow graduate in Berkeley ended up writing a dissertation using that aside, that throwaway line.

I was able to ask him these questions about everything and anything. What he showed me — this is your question — what he showed me was how power works, not in terms of bureaucracy, not in terms of the large mechanisms of governance like a secret police, but how all of that is enforced and acted through daily life. In other words, the micro versions of power. It’s connected to the big structures, but it’s little people doing this. That’s why I said totalitarianism is using your agency to destroy your own agency.

That means denouncing your neighbors, being encouraged to denounce your neighbors for heresies, and participating in that culture of denunciation, which loosens all social trust and social bonds and puts you in a situation of dependency on the state. You’re a gung-ho activist using your agency, and the next thing you know, you have no power whatsoever. So, those are the kinds of things that I could talk to him about.

After he passed away from AIDS in the summer of 1984 — it was the AIDS epidemic, horrific. He passed away, and we had a memorial for him. I was still a PhD student, remember. I didn’t finish until ’88. There was this guy, Michel de Certeau, who wrote a tribute to Foucault in French that he was going to deliver at the event. It was called “The Laughter of Foucault.” I had these conversations with de Certeau about his analysis of Foucault and the pleasure of analytic work, which had been a hallmark of Foucault.

De Certeau taught me a phrase called “the little tactics of the habitat,” which became one of the core ideas of my dissertation and then book, Magnetic Mountain, about this micropower stuff. Even though Foucault was gone, I was able to extend the beginning of the conversations with Foucault through de Certeau.

I learned how power works in everyday life, and how the language that you use, and the practices like denunciation that you enact or partake in, help form those totalitarian structures, because the secret police are not there every minute of every day, so what’s in your head? How are you motivated? What type of behavior are you motivated for?

We say, “Okay, what would Stalin do in this situation?” Many people approach their lives — they’ve never met Stalin; they’ll never meet Stalin — but they imagine what Stalin might do. That gets implanted in their way of thinking; it becomes second nature. I learned to discuss and analyze that through Foucault.

I have to say, I didn’t share his analysis that Western society was imprisoning, that the daily life practices of free societies were a form of imprisonment in its own way. I never shared that view, so it wasn’t for me his analysis of the West that I liked. It was the analytical toolkit that I adapted from him to apply to actual totalitarianism in the Soviet case.

Excellent throughout.

Using AI to analyze changes in pedestrian traffic

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one bit:

Fortunately, there is new research. We have entered the age where innovative methods of measurement, such as computer vision and deep learning, can reveal how American life has changed.

Researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research compiled footage of four urban public spaces, two in New York and one each in Philadelphia and Boston, from 1979-1980 and again in 2008-2010. These snapshots of American life, roughly 30 years apart, reveal how changes in work and culture might have shaped the way people move and interact on the street.

The videos capture people circulating in two busy Manhattan locations, in Bryant Park in midtown and outside the Metropolitan Museum of Art on the Upper East Side; around Boston’s Downtown Crossing shopping district; and on Chestnut Street in downtown Philadelphia. One piece of good news is that at least when it comes to our street behavior, we don’t seem to have become more solitary. From 1980 to 2010 there was hardly any change in the share of pedestrians walking alone, rising from 67% to 68%.

A bigger change is that average walking speed rose by 15%. So the pace of American life has accelerated, at least in public spaces in the Northeast. Most economists would predict such a result, since the growth in wages has increased the opportunity cost of just walking around. Better to have a quick stroll and get back to your work desk.

The biggest change in behavior was that lingering fell dramatically. The amount of time spent just hanging out dropped by about half across the measured locations. Note that this was seen in places where crime rates have fallen, so this trend was unlikely to have resulted from fear of being mugged. Instead, Americans just don’t use public spaces as they used to. These places now tend to be for moving through, to get somewhere, rather than for enjoying life or hoping to meet other people. There was especially a shift at Boston’s Downtown Crossing. In 1980, 54% of the people there were lingering, whereas by 2010 that had fallen to 14%.

Consistent with this observation, the number of public encounters also fell. You might be no less likely to set off with another person in tow, but you won’t meet up with others as often while you are underway. The notion of downtown as a “public square,” rife with spontaneous or planned encounters, is not what it used to be.

I prefer the new arrangements, but of course not everybody does.  The researchers are Arianna Salazar-MirandaZhuangyuan FanMichael B. BaickKeith N. HamptonFabio DuarteBecky P.Y. LooEdward L. Glaeser Carlo Ratti.

Should Notre Dame charge admission?

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, as the Cathedral is reopening in December.  The government wants to charge visitors five euros, but the Church is opposed.  Here is part of my proffered solution:

First, charge a fee — but make it €10 rather than €5. If seeing Notre Dame is worth only €7 or €8 to someone, I don’t mind excluding them, for the benefit of those who really want to see the place. The crowds should diminish — and if they don’t, just raise the admission fee. St. Paul’s in London, by the way, charges £25 for adult admission, and Saint-Denis in Paris charges €11. Anyone who can afford to visit Paris can afford to pay more than €5 to see Notre Dame.

Second, assign a priest, nun or other religious counsel to the church, to service any religiously minded visitor who might require assistance in matters of the soul. If need be, that person can walk the God-searching visitor to a nearby church where visits are free. Admission fees will help fund this service, which would be symbolically important even if little used.

Third, set aside further time for Notre Dame to be a quiet and more religious place. Maybe make admission free for one day per week — but only for residents of Paris. Since most visitors stay in Paris for more than a day, the determined tourist still should be able to see the church.

And note this:

The commercialization of churches has some major downsides — but an admission fee can be a partial antidote to commercialization, not its apogee.

And this:

To put it another way: Extreme crowding is a fee of another sort, even if its nominal price remains at zero.

Let’s hope they do it.

The anti-tourism movement continues into winter season

It’s well past the August holiday peak, but anger against over-tourism in Spain is spilling into the off-season, as holiday-makers continue to seek winter sun.

On Sunday locals in the Basque city of San Sebastian plan to take to the streets under the banner: “We are in danger; degrow tourism!”

And in November anti-tourism protesters will gather in Seville.

Thousands turned out last Sunday in the Canary Islands, so the problem is clearly not going away.

This year appears to have marked a watershed for attitudes to tourism in Spain and many other parts of Europe, as the post-Covid travel boom has seen the industry equal and often surpass records set before the pandemic.

Spain is expected to receive more than 90 million foreign visitors by the end of the year. The consultancy firm Braintrust estimates that the number of arrivals will rise to 115 million by 2040, well ahead of the current world leader, France.

Here is the full story.

“Life in India is a series of bilateral negotiations”

By Rohit Krishnan:

Life in India is a series of bilateral negotiations conducted a thousand times a day. And that drives the character of life here.

Now, I am seeing the country properly after several years. And it’s a major change.

Visible infrastructure has gotten much better. Roads are good, well maintained, and highways are excellent. They built 7500 miles last year, just as the year before. And they’re fantastic…

But:

Living in a country built off of bilateral negotiations for everything is simultaneously the libertarian dream and an incredibly inefficient way to do most collective things. Ronald Coase told us this in 1960.

“if property rights are well-defined and transaction costs are low, private parties can negotiate solutions to externalities without the need for government intervention”

But Indian life is dominated by transaction costs. Every time a driver pokes his car into a turn when the signal’s not for him it creates friction that ripples through the entire system. Every time someone has to spend effort doing a 1:1 negotiation they lose time and efficiency. Horribly so.

…The reason this isn’t an easy fix is that the ability to negotiate everything is also the positive. When every rule is negotiable you get to push back on silly things like closing off a section of a parking garage with rubber cones by just asking. Life in the West feels highly constricted primarily because of this, we’re all drowning in rules.

Here is the full essay.

 

My excellent Conversation with Tom Tugendhat

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

Tom Tugendhat has served as a Member of Parliament since 2015, holding roles such as Security Minister and chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. Before entering Parliament, Tom served in in Iraq and Afghanistan. He also worked for the Foreign Office, helped establish the National Security Council of Afghanistan, and served as military assistant and principal adviser to the Chief of the Defense Staff.

Tyler and Tom examine the evolving landscape of governance and leadership in the UK today, touching on the challenges of managing London under the UK’s centralized system, why England remains economically unbalanced, his most controversial view on London’s architecture, whether YIMBYism in England can succeed, the unique politics and history of Kent, whether the system of private schools needs reform, his pick for the greatest unselected prime minister, whether Brexit revealed a defect in the parliamentary system, whether the House of Lords should be abolished, why the British monarchy continues to captivate the world, devolution in Scotland and Northern Ireland, how learning Arabic in Yemen affected his life trajectory, his read on the Middle East and Russia, the Tom Tugendhat production function, his pitch for why a talented young person should work in the British Civil Service, and more.

And here is an excerpt:

COWEN: Okay. First question, what is your favorite walk around London, and what does it show about the city that outsiders might not understand?

TUGENDHAT: Oh, my favorite walk is down the river. A lot of people walk down the river. One of the best things about walking down the river in London is, first of all, it shows two things. One, that London is actually an incredibly private place. You can be completely on your own in the center of one of the biggest cities in the world within seconds, just by walking down the river. Very often, even in the middle of the day, there’s nobody there. You walk past things that are just extraordinary. You walk past a customs house. It’s not used anymore, but it was the customs house for 300, 400, 500 years. You walk past, obviously, the Tower of London. You walk past Tower Bridge. You walk past many things like that.

Actually, you’re walking past a lot of modern London as well, and you see the reality of London, which is — the truth is, London isn’t a single city. It’s many, many different villages, all cobbled together in various different ways. I think outsiders miss the fact that there’s a real intimacy to London that you miss if all you’re doing is you’re going on the Tube, or if you’re going on the bus. If you walk down that river, you see a very, very different kind of London. You see real communities and real smaller communities.

And:

COWEN: Can the British system of government in its current parliamentary form — how well can that work without broadly liberal individualistic foundations in public opinion?

TUGENDHAT: I think it works extremely well at ensuring that truly liberal foundations are maintained. I mean that not in the American sense; I mean in a genuine, the old liberal tradition that emerges from the UK in the 1700s, 1800s, where freedom of thought, freedom of assembly, the right to own property, and all those principles that then became embedded in various different constitutions around the world, including your own. I think it does very well at doing that because it forces you, our system forces you, into partnership. There are 650 people who you have to work with in some way in Parliament over the next four or five years.

And there’s four of us currently going for leadership at the Conservative Party. There’s one reason why, despite the fact that we’re competing almost in a US primary system, the way in which we are dealing with each other is very different, is because we’re all going to have to work together for the next four years. Whoever wins is going to have to work with the other three, and the idea that you can simply ignore each other isn’t true. There’s only 121 of us Conservative MPs in Parliament, and what this system forces on us is the need to deal with each other in a way that you have to deal with somebody if you’re going to deal with them tomorrow. I think that’s one of the reasons why the British political system has endured because it forces you to remember that there’s a long-term interest, not an immediate one, not just a short-term one.

Recommended, highly intelligent throughout, including on China, Russia, and Yemen.

Are “anchor babies” underrated?

Did you worry about the 2020 fall in U.S. fertility?  Well, ponder this:

Birth rates in Canada and the USA declined sharply in March 2020 and deviated from historical trends. This decline was absent in similarly developed European countries. We argue that the selective decline was driven by incoming individuals, who would have travelled from abroad and given birth in Canada and the USA, had there been no travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, by leveraging data from periods before and during the COVID-19 travel restrictions, we quantified the extent of births by incoming individuals. In an interrupted time series analysis, the expected number of such births in Canada was 970 per month (95% CI: 710-1,200), which is 3.2% of all births in the country. The corresponding estimate for the USA was 6,700 per month (95% CI: 3,400-10,000), which is 2.2% of all births. A secondary difference-in-differences analysis gave similar estimates at 2.8% and 3.4% for Canada and the USA, respectively. Our study reveals the extent of births by recent international arrivals, which hitherto has been unknown and infeasible to study.

That is from a new paper by Amit N. Sawant and Mats J. Stensrud, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

Why Don’t We Have Flying Cars?

In the 1970s the general aviation aircraft industry was selling 15,000 or more aircraft a year but that number fell by a factor of about 10 in the early 1980s. What happened? One factor was a massive increase in tort liability as discussed in my paper with Eric Helland, Product Liability and Moral Hazard: Evidence from General Aviation. Another factor was ever-increasing FAA regulation.

But Max Tabarrok raises an interesting puzzle. It’s not at all obvious that the regulation of personal aircraft has been more strict than that of automobiles. So why the big difference in outcomes? There is, however, one small but potentially very important difference between the regulation of cars and aircraft.

By far the costliest part of the FAA’s regulation is not any particular standard imposed on pilot training, liability, or aircraft safety, but a slight shift in the grammatical tense of all these rules. The Department of Transportation (DOT) sets strict safety requirements for cars, but manufacturers are allowed to release new designs without first getting the DOT to sign off that all the requirements have been satisfied. The law is enforced ex post, and the government will impose recalls and fines when manufacturers fail to follow the law.

The FAA, by contrast, enforces all of its safety rules ex ante. Before aircraft manufacturers can do anything with a design, they have to get the FAA’s signoff, which can take more than a decade. This regulatory approach also makes the FAA far more risk-averse, since any problems with an aircraft after release are blamed on the FAA’s failure to catch them. With ex post enforcement, the companies that failed to follow the law would be blamed, and the FAA rewarded, for enforcing recall.

This subtle difference in the ordering of legal enforcement is the major cause of the stagnation of aircraft design and manufacturing.

In some ways, this is an optimistic message, since it illuminates an attractive political compromise: keep all of the safety standards on airplanes exactly as they are, but enforce these standards like they’re enforced with cars—i.e., through post-market surveillance, recall, and punishment. This small change would reinvigorate the general aviation industry, putting it back on the exponential trend upwards that it lost 50 years ago.