Category: Uncategorized
What has gone wrong with tourism to Las Vegas?
Agitators in the city have attempted to document the deterioration by posting ominous images of barren casinos, conjuring the perception of a place hollowed out by economic armageddon. The reality is more nuanced, but it is true that practically every conceivable indicator tracking tourism to Las Vegas is flashing warning signs. Hotel occupancy has cratered. Rooms were only 66.7 percent full in July, down by 16.8 percent from the previous year. The number of travelers passing through Harry Reid International Airport also declined by 4.5 percent in 2025 during an ongoing ebb of foreign tourists, for familiar reasons. Canadians, historically one of the city’s most reliable sources of degenerates, have effectively vanished. Ticket sales for Air Canada jets flying to Las Vegas have slipped by 33 percent, while the Edmonton-based low-cost carrier Flair has reported a 62 percent drop-off.
Here is the full story, which shows it is by no means an exclusively Canadian phenomenon. Overall, I am happy to see a shift away from gambling, drinking, and “shows for wealthy old people”?
Colors of growth
This looks pretty tremendous:
We develop a novel approach to measuring long-run economic growth by exploiting systematic variation in the use of color in European paintings. Drawing inspiration from the literature on nighttime lights as a proxy for income, we extract hue, saturation, and brightness from millions of pixels to construct annual indices for Great Britain, Holland, France, Italy, and Germany between 1600 and 1820. These indices track broad trends in existing GDP reconstructions while revealing higher frequency fluctuations – such as those associated with wars, political instability, and climatic shocks – that traditional series smooth over. Our findings demonstrate that light, decomposed into color and brightness components, provides a credible and independent source of information on early modern economic activity.
That is new research by Lars Boerner, Tim Reinicke, Samad Sarferaz, and Battista Severgnini. Via Ethan Mollick.
Sunday assorted links
1. The fight over Romansh (New Yorker).
3. Kelsey Piper responds on Mississippi. She is probably correct.
4. Future VP?
5. Is the political allocation of gay representatives skewed?
6. If Arnold Kling taught conservative thought.
7. Noah is right.
Planning sentences to ponder
Planning assistance caused municipalities to build 20% fewer housing units per decade over the 50 years that followed.
Here is the full abstract:
We study how the federal Urban Planning Assistance Program, which subsidized growing communities in the 1960s to hire urban planners to draft land-use plans, affected housing supply. Using newly digitized records merged with panel data across municipalities on housing and zoning outcomes, we exploit eligibility thresholds and capacity to approve funds across state agencies to identify effects. Planning assistance caused municipalities to build 20% fewer housing units per decade over the 50 years that followed. Regulatory innovation steered construction in assisted areas away from apartments and toward larger single-family homes. Textual evidence related to zoning and development politics further shows that, since the 1980s, assisted communities have disincentivized housing supply by passing on development costs to developers. These findings suggest that federal intervention in planning helped institutionalize practices that complicate community growth, with subsequent consequences for national housing affordability.
Hail Martin Anderson! The above paper is by Tom Cui and Beau Bressler, via Brad, and also Yonah Freemark.
A Ukrainian mathematician requests mathematical assistance
…an expert in general relativity or a mathematical physicist familiar with PPN methods, weak-field gravitational tests, and variational principles…
For the two technical appendices (ψ-preconditioning and χ-flattening), I would need:
• a quantum algorithms researcher (QSP/QSVT/QLSA/QAE) to assess the correctness of the operator transformations and the potential complexity gains;
• a quantum control or pulse-level compilation engineer (pulse-level, virtual-Z) to evaluate whether the phase-drift compensation algorithm can be implemented realistically on actual hardware.
Please email me if you think you might be of assistance.
Saturday assorted links
What Tom Whitwell learned in 2025
52 things, here is one of them:
Most characters in the film Idiocracy wear Crocs because the film’s wardrobe director thought they were too horrible-looking to ever become popular. [Alex Kasprak]
Here is the full list.
Two things that really matter
When analyzing the macro situations of countries or regions, I place more stress than many people do on the following two factors:
1. Human capital: How much active, ambitious talent is there? And how high are the averages and medians?
2. Matching market demands: Are you geared up to produce what the market really wants, export markets or otherwise?
Those may sound trivial, but in relative terms they remain undervalued. They are, for instance, the biggest reasons why I do not buy “the housing theory of everything.”
They are also, in my view, the biggest reasons why the UK currently is in economic trouble. Both #1 (brain drain) and #2 have taken a hit in recent times. The UK continues to deindustrialize, business consulting is not the future, and London as a financial centre was hurt by 2008, Brexit, and superior innovations elsewhere. More and more smart Brits are leaving for the US or Dubai.
You also will notice that #1 and #2, when they are in trouble, are not always easily fixed. That is why reforms, while often a good idea, are by no means an easy or automatic way out of trouble.
These two factors also are consistent with the stylized fact that growth rates from the previous decade are not so predictive of growth rates for the next decades. Human capital often drives levels more than growth rates. And matching market demands often has to do with luck, or with shifting patterns of demand that the supplying country simply cannot match. Once people abandon Toyotas for Chinese electric cars, Japan does not have an easy pivot to make up the loss.
Most other theories of growth rates, for instance those that assign a predominant weight to institutions, predict much more serial correlation of growth rates than we find in the data. That said, institutions do indeed matter, and in addition to their usual effects they will shape both #1 and #2 over the longer run.
Overall, I believe conclusions would be less pat and economic understandings would be more effective if people paid greater attention to these factors #1 and #2. Not putting enough weight on #1 and #2 is one of the biggest mistakes I see smart people — and indeed very smart people — making.
Addendum: You will note the contributions of Fischer Black here. Apart from his contributions to options pricing theory, which are widely known, he remains one of the most underrated modern economists.
Classical music of 2025
These are the releases that I kept on listening to, in no particular order:
Aart Bergwerff, Bach, Six Trio Sonatas for Organ.
Jonathan Ferrucci, Bach Toccatas.
Tom Hicks, Chopin Nocturnes. So little rubato, this one took time getting used to but now I love it.
Linos-Ensemble, Schoenberg-Webern-Berg, The Waltz Arrangements. I am surprised I like this one at all, it brings together the two main strands of Viennese music at the time.
Yuja Wang, Shostakovich Piano Concerti and pieces from Op.87.
Cuarteto Casals, Shostakovich, complete String Quartets.
i am selecting these based on a) are they truly great and important pieces of classical music, and b) does this particular recording add something to the interpretations already out there?
Friday assorted links
1. Best DC art works? (FT) Surely Manet’s The Railway should be on the list? Does Dulles Airport count? The Iwo Jima Memorial or Vietnam Memorial? Maybe even the Air Force Memorial?
2. The raccoon culture that was Virginia and I suppose still is a little bit?
3. Stoppard’s liberal individualism.
4. Jerry Z Muller on conservatism.
5. SPEAK, new organization for free speech in the UK.
Political pressure on the Fed
From a forthcoming paper by Thomas Drechsel:
This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political pressure, I develop a narrative identification strategy based on President Nixon’s pressure on Fed Chair Burns. I exploit this narrative through restrictions on a structural vector autoregression that includes the President-Fed interaction data. I find that political pressure to ease monetary policy (i) increases the price level strongly and persistently, (ii) does not lead to positive effects on real economic activity, (iii) contributed to inflationary episodes outside of the Nixon era, and (iv) transmits differently from a typical monetary policy easing, by having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon, for six months, raises the price level by about 7% over the following decade.
That is not entirely a positive omen for the current day.
Emergent Ventures winners, 50th cohort
Geby Jaff, Berkeley, publication medium for AI-generated science.
Laura Ryan, London, data for the AIs.
Tara Rezaei, MIT, general career support/AI/o1.
Mihir Rao, Princeton, bio and AI.
Lorna MacLean, London, AI medical diagnosis of endometriosis.
David Yu, Waterloo, Ontario/Taiwan, fellowship program for agentic Taiwanese college students.
Aniket Panjwani, Lombard, Illinois, EconNow, AI-based software for economics.
Zixuan (Eric) Ma, GMU, to write about China.
Ivan Khalamendyk, Lviv, “I’m an independent Ukrainian physicist developing a ψ-field model of the universe – a single real wave ψ(x,t) that reproduces quantum matter, forces and gravity.”
José Luis Sabau, Mexico City, Perpetuo, Substack for Mexico.
Soleil Wizman, Yale University, longevity.
Thursday assorted links
1. Protestant magic and occultism in Ireland.
2. Funny that academics should feel the need to provide a defense of the positive benefits of status.
3. Immersive summer workshops on rationality for teens.
4. New Justin Sandefur blog/newsletter.
5. Evan Goldfine music recommendations.
My Conversation with the excellent Dan Wang
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary:
Tyler and Dan debate whether American infrastructure is actually broken or just differently optimized, why health care spending should reach 35% of GDP, how lawyerly influences shaped East Asian development differently than China, China’s lack of a liberal tradition and why it won’t democratize like South Korea or Taiwan did, its economic dysfunction despite its manufacturing superstars, Chinese pragmatism and bureaucratic incentives, a 10-day itinerary for Yunnan, James C. Scott’s work on Zomia, whether Beijing or Shanghai is the better city, Liu Cixin and why volume one of The Three-Body Problem is the best, why contemporary Chinese music and film have declined under Xi, Chinese marriage markets and what it’s like to be elderly in China, the Dan Wang production function, why Stendhal is his favorite novelist and Rossini’s Comte Ory moves him, what Dan wants to learn next, whether LLMs will make Tyler’s hyper-specific podcast questions obsolete, what flavor of drama their conversation turned out to be, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: When will Chinese suburbs be really attractive?
WANG: What are Chinese suburbs? You use this term, Tyler, and I’m not sure what exactly they mean.
COWEN: You have a yard and a dog and a car, right?
WANG: Yes.
COWEN: You control your school district with the other parents. That’s a suburb.
WANG: How about never? I’m not expecting that China will have American-style suburbs anytime soon, in part because of the social engineering projects that are pretty extensive in China. I think there is a sense in which Chinese cities are not especially dense. Indian cities are much, much more dense. I think that Chinese cities, the streets are not necessarily terribly full of people all the time. They just sprawl quite extensively.
They sprawl in ways that I think the edges of the city still look somewhat like the center of the city, which there’s too many high-rises. There’s probably fewer parks. There’s probably fewer restaurants. Almost nobody has a yard and a dog in their home. That’s in part because the Communist Party has organized most people to live in apartment compounds in which it is much easier to control them.
We saw this really extensively in the pandemic, in which people were unable to leave their Shanghai apartment compounds for anything other than getting their noses and mouths swabbed. I write a little bit about how, if you take the rail outside of major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, you hit farmland really, really quickly. That is in part because the Communist Party assesses governors as well as mayors on their degree of food self-sufficiency.
Cities like Shanghai and Beijing have to produce a lot of their own crops, both grains as well as vegetables, as well as fruits, as well as livestock, within a certain radius so that in case there’s ever a major devastating war, they don’t have to rely on strawberries from Mexico or strawberries from Cambodia, or Thailand. There’s a lot of farmland allocated outside of major cities. I think that will prevent suburban sprawl. You can’t control people if they all have a yard as well as a dog. I think the Communist Party will not allow it.
COWEN: Whether the variable of engineers matters, I went and I looked at the history of other East Asian economies, which have done very well in manufacturing, built out generally excellent infrastructure. None of these problems with the Second Avenue line in New York. Taiwan, like the presidents, at least if we believe GPT-5, three of them were lawyers and none of them were engineers. South Korea, you have actually some economists, a lot of bureaucrats.
WANG: Wow. Imagine that. Economists in charge, Tyler.
COWEN: I wouldn’t think it could work. A few lawyers, one engineer. Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, he’s a lawyer. He thinks in a very lawyerly manner. Singapore has arguably done the best of all those countries. Much richer than China, inspired China. Why should I think engineers rather than just East Asia, and a bunch of other accompanying facts about these places are what matter?
WANG: Japan, a lot of lawyers in the top leadership. What exactly was the leadership of Hong Kong? A bunch of British civil servants.
COWEN: Some of whom are probably lawyers or legal-type minds, right? Not in general engineers.
WANG: PPE grads. I think that we can understand the engineering variable mostly because of how much more China has done relative to Japan and South Korea and Taiwan.
COWEN: It’s much, much poorer. Per capita manufacturing output is gone much better in these other countries.
And:
WANG: Tyler, what does it say about us that you and I have generally a lot of similar interests in terms of, let’s call it books, music, all sorts of things, but when it comes to particular categories of things, we oppose each other diametrically. I much prefer Anna Karenina to War and Peace. I prefer Buddenbrooks to Magic Mountain. Here again, you oppose me. What’s the deal?
COWEN: I don’t think the differences are that big. For instance, if we ask ourselves, what’s the relative ranking of Chengdu plus Chongqing compared to the rest of the world? We’re 98.5% in agreement compared to almost anyone else. When you get to the micro level, the so-called narcissism of petty differences, obviously, you’re born in China. I grew up in New Jersey. It’s going to shape our perspectives.
Anything in China, you have been there in a much more full-time way, and you speak and read Chinese, and none of that applies to me. I’m popping in and out as a tourist. Then, I think the differences make much more sense. It’s possible I would prefer to live in Shanghai for essentially the reasons you mentioned. If I’m somewhere for a week, I’m definitely going to pick Beijing. I’ll go around to the galleries. The things that are terrible about the city just don’t bother me that much, because I know I’ll be gone.
WANG: 98.5% agreement. I’ll take that, Tyler. It’s you and me against the rest of the world, but then we’ll save our best disagreements for each other.
COWEN: Let’s see if you can pass an intellectual Turing test. Why is it that I think Yunnan is the single best place in the world to visit? Just flat out the best if you had to pick one region. Not why you think it is, but why I think it is.
Strongly recommended, Dan and I had so much fun we kept going for about an hour and forty minutes. And of course you should buy and read Dan’s bestselling book Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.
The importance of the internet
From my recent chat with Alex, mostly about fiscal policy:
TABARROK:To be clear, a 0.5% increase in the rate of productivity growth, that doesn’t seem like a lot, but that would be historically a bigger increase than we got from anything. A bigger increase than the internet. Sure, yes.
COWEN:It is the internet in a way, but yes.
TABARROK:It was founded on the internet, yes. The internet was the agar culturefor the growth of the AI.
COWEN:That’s why the internet’s important. We’re just beginning to realize this,right?
TABARROK:Exactly, yes.
COWEN:It’s why a lot of people can’t admit AI might be a good thing, because then they’d have to admit the internet was a good thing. They’re so committed to never saying that.
TABARROK:Is that why?
COWEN:That’s why, yes.Believe me. That’s why.
TABARROK:It is funny that I think historically, when we look back, I think you’re right, we’ll think about what was the internet. The growth culture was putting everything online, was for the AI. It wasn’t for us.