Category: Web/Tech
What should I ask Jonathan Haidt?
Yes, I will be doing another Conversation with him. Here is my previous Conversation with him, almost eight years ago. As many of you will know, Jonathan has a new book coming out, namely
*Forgotten Creators*
The subtitle is How German-Speaking Scientists and Engineers Invented the Modern World, And What We Can Learn from Them . This is a 5501 (!) pp. work, published on-line. I haven’t read it yet. By Todd H. Rider. It’s probably good.
The Everything Token
If you want to understand NFTs and where they are going, The Everything Token by web entrepreneur Steve Kaczynski and Harvard Business school professor Scott Duke Kominers is by far the best guide.
Kaczynski and Kominers emphasize that NFTs are more than deeds to digital art they are an ideal way to create communities.
Community formation around shared interests has been happening forever, of course. But NFTs turn it up to eleven because of what we call their embedded network superpower:…becoming the owner of an NFT is to some degree an act of affiliation with the brand. Yet NFT ownership doesn’t just connect you with the brand itself, but also with the entire network of individuals who are similarly affiliated….The holders of a given NFT comprise a network of brand enthusiasts just waiting to be activated.
The Everything Token is all about advising brands on what NFTs are, how to understand and navigate the design space and how to active brand enthusiasm. Now you may find ‘activating brand enthusiasm’ pedestrian, perhaps even a little dystopian but Kaczynski and Kominers are correct that this is where the NFT market is going.
When the internet first exploded into public consciousness there was a lot of talk about declaring independence and creating a civilization of the Mind. If you bought into that (I did not, despite lauding the goals) then maybe you think that the internet as we know it today, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Spotify and all the rest are a big disappointment. I don’t. I love the new world, even if it isn’t the libertarian paradise that some once promised.
In the same way, NFTs won’t lead to a revolution of the creator class but they are poised to be increasingly adopted by corporations. Corporate adoption will ‘domesticate’ the underlying cryptographic technology. That is, as corporations infuse NFTs into mainstream business models, NFTs will become more user-friendly and accessible and much like the seamless integration into our daily lives of technologies such as Google Maps and digital payments, they will become a ubiquitous part of the digital economy. As NFTs become embedded in various sectors ranging from finance to entertainment, they will reshape how we perceive and interact with digital assets offering innovative and versatile applications that extend well beyond their current scope. It will be fun but don’t expect to liberate the means of production.
Phind is quite good
Toothpick producers violate NYT copyright
If you stare at just the exact right part of the toothpick, and measure the length from the tip, expressed in terms of the appropriate unit and converted into binary, and then translated into English, you can find any message you want. You just have to pinpoint your gaze very very exactly (I call this “a prompt”).
In fact, on your toothpick you can find the lead article from today’s New York Times. With enough squinting, measuring, and translating.
By producing the toothpick, they put the message there and thus they gave you NYT access, even though you are not a paid subscriber. You simply need to how to stare (and translate), or in other words how to prompt.
So let’s sue the toothpick company!
By the way, I hear they are sending Barbara Eden to jail…
2023 CWT retrospective episode
Here is the link, here is the episode summary:
On this special year-in-review episode, Tyler and producer Jeff Holmes look back on the past year in the show and more, including the most popular and underrated episodes, the origins of the show as an occasional event series, the most difficult guests to prep for, the story behind EconGOAT.AI, Tyler’s favorite podcast appearance of the year, and his evolving LLM-powered production function. They also answer listener questions and conclude with an assessment of Tyler’s top pop culture recommendations from 2013 across movies, music, and books.
And one excerpt:
COWEN: That’s a unique experience. You have a chance to do Chomsky. Maybe you don’t even want to do it, but you feel, “If I don’t do it, I’ll regret not having done it.” Just like we didn’t get to chat with Charlie Munger in time, though he’s far more, I would say, closer to truth than Chomsky is.
I thought half of Chomsky was quite good, and the other half was beyond terrible, but that’s okay. People, I think, wanted to gawk at it in some manner. They had this picture — what’s it like, Tyler talking with Chomsky? Then they get to see it and maybe recoil, but that’s what they came for, like a horror movie.
HOLMES: The engagement on the Chomsky episode was very good. Some people on MR were saying, “I turned it off. I couldn’t listen to it.” But actually, most people listened to it. It did, actually, probably better than average in terms of engagement, in terms of how much of the episode, on average, people listen to.
COWEN: How can you turn it off? What does that say about you? Were you surprised? You thought that Chomsky had become George Stigler or something? No.
Fun and interesting throughout. If you are wondering, the most popular episode of the year, by far, was with Paul Graham.
My first Paraguayan restaurant, and a test of GPT-4

That was the menu from Tal Cual!, in Buenos Aires, the first Paraguayan food I have had. I showed GPT-4 that menu and asked why there were no posted prices on it. It responded that the restaurant wanted to economize on the cost of price changes, and afterwards mentioned a fixed price menu as an alternative explanation. I then added that I was in Argentina, and would that help improve the answer any? GPT responded that high inflation was likely the reason why the restaurant might want to economize on the cost of frequent price changes. Not bad.

A fun time was had by all.
Why France is underrated
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one bit:
Since the West European economic boom ended in the 1970s, the French civil service has been at best a mixed blessing. French administrators have gotten a lot done, reflecting their impeccable education and internal culture. But they have also helped to make the French economy overly static and too reliant on bureaucracy. A lazier, less activist civil service might have been better.
Fast forward to 2023. War and conflict are now more common on the global scene, a trend that shows no signs of abating. Populist governments are on the rise, and China and Russia are active and restless. None of those problems is easy to solve, and they all require greater involvement from the public sector. Nations with high-quality leadership and civil-service traditions will stand a better chance of navigating the turmoil.
So the bureaucracy that was once a hindrance to France may now turn out to be a comparative advantage. And at a time when governance seems to be deteriorating around the world, Macron continues to have a reputation as a relatively responsible leader.
This year has shown how this advantage plays out. Post-pandemic France has been a bit of a mix, with soaring energy prices, inflation, rising interest rates, continuation of the Ukraine war, labor strikes and protests, and a variety of European migration crises. Yet France avoided a credit downgrade and the French economy continued to create more jobs. Performance has hardly been perfect and the risk of recession remains, but France has done better than might have been expected 18 months ago.
I also consider the relatively successful French start-up scene, including in AI.
Do people trust humans more than Chat GPT?
We explore whether people trust the accuracy of statements produced by large language models (LLMs) versus those written by humans. While LLMs have showcased impressive capabilities in generating text, concerns have been raised regarding the potential for misinformation, bias, or false responses. In this experiment, participants rate the accuracy of statements under different information conditions. Participants who are not explicitly informed of authorship tend to trust statements they believe are human-written more than those attributed to ChatGPT. However, when informed about authorship, participants show equal skepticism towards both human and AI writers. There is an increase in the rate of costly fact-checking by participants who are explicitly informed. These outcomes suggest that trust in AI-generated content is context-dependent.
That is from a new paper by Joy Buchanan and William Hickman.
Robert Sams on the future of crypto (from my email)
In response to this last crypto post of mine:
I’m glad you’ve put this one out there, as it’s a thesis i’ve been thinking about for many years and do not think it’s exotic at all.For all the hand-wavy hypothesising about the future of AI autonomous agents, precious little attention is given to the role of legal personhood in the discussion. The very concept of “autonomous agent” is ambiguous in this regard. In one sense, it means some autonomously operated system that is acting _on behalf_ of someone|something else; in another sense, it means something that acts on its own behalf, it “has agency”. The distinction is critical, because it’s hard to see how an AI system can have agency if it cannot, on its own, own property, enter into contracts, sue and be sued. Having agency is more than being intelligent.It’s pretty hard to imagine a scenario where jurisdictions start granting legal personhood to AI systems. There may be legal entities where human directors delegate corporate decision making to an AI, but there’s always an essential human-fiduciary-in-the-loop with legal personhood and is the nexus of AI regulation. But blockchains upend this framework, offering an alternative infrastructure where a different model of ownership, contract and dispute resolution where a human fiduciary role is not an essential requirement. AI’s can be first-class citizens in the crypto economy.So having agency is more than being intelligent, you need “economic personhood” to autonomously interact in the real world, and blockchains provide the infrastructure for non-human, economic persons. If an AI can buy its own GPU compute and other resources, and fund its opex by selling services people (or other AIs) value, the AI has economic personhood.Crucially, these non-human economic persons do not need _general_ intelligence, they just need domain-specific capabilities that enable it to produce valuable output and continuously adapt to a competitive marketplace. That is why the idea is not very exotic at all, as the current capabilities of LLMs and blockchains are arguably sufficient for this scenario to materialise in the near term.The obstacles seem to be more tractable problems, like: “how can the AI agent learn to trust the veracity of data it solicits and quality of services (esp GPU compute) it buys?”. Whilst it sounds kind of funny, there’s an opportunity for human operated service providers to build brands of trustworthiness with AI agents by doing things that are easy for context-aware humans but hard for AIs, like attesting to the veracity of a data feed (“is it really 41c in lower Manhattan today?”, “did USDJPY really rally 10% on the day?”).—AI-Human trust games may turn out to be more effective than centralised human feedback loops operated by big AI tech, esp if the AI’s are domain-specific and must strive for product-market fit to survive. And whilst AGI doomers will be predictability horrified by the prospect of AI’s with economic personhood, my own contrary view is that our entire orientation to the subject will change if we see just how vulnerable to attack these AI’s are once you cut the umbilical chord they currently have by being ensconced inside the trusted environments funded by big tech’s enormous balance sheets.Finally, I suspect that an economic personhood orientation to the AI x-risk debate will improve the research and dialogue significantly. My own speculation is that we’ll eventually come to the conclusion that the telos of AGI is not a singularity but a plurality of competing A[G]Is. It seems more fruitful to ponder the respective comparative advantages of AIs vs humans in the domains of computational power and context awareness and explore the codependencies when these two classes of intelligent economic agent must compete and cooperate in a decentralised market.
AI-generated stories and anchors
It’s so over for journalists lmfao
Learn to code chumps https://t.co/ibDoX3O9Ny
— Journalists Posting Their Ls (@JournosPostLs) December 13, 2023
p.s. Learning to code won’t do it. Become a gardener!
*Who Makes the NBA?*
That is the new book by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, with the subtitle Data-Driven Answers to Basketball’s Biggest Questions. Most notably, it was written in thirty days with the help of GPT-4.
It’s quite good! Excerpt:
A statistically significant percentage of sons of NBA players shoot free throws at a higher clip than their fathers.
Jokic, by the way, started off playing water polo, and that is partly why he passes as he does and has such good court vision. And this:
And the average NBA player shoots free throws 1.5 percentage points lower in clutch moments in playoff games.
Is some of that due to being more tired rather than choking? On average taller players choke more on free throws, which is perhaps consistent with this hypothesis? Being very tall, they are less likely to be athletic and well-conditioned, in equilibrium that is?
I really liked this book, kudos to the author(s)!
Number Go Up
Number Go Up, Zeke Faux’s account of the wildest excesses of the crypto boom (2020-2022), is highly entertaining from page one:
“I am not going to lie,” Sam Bankman-Fried told me.
This was a lie.
Faux describes the scene on a yacht off the Bahamas owned or rented by Brock Pierce, the child actor who starred in the Mighty Ducks and who co-founded Tether, a stablecoin that Faux is on the hunt to uncover its origins and backing:
A crypto venture capital fund manager–wearing a mock souvenir T-shirt from convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein’s private island–joked about a scam that another yacht guest was running. A crypto public relations man offered what he called “Colombian marching powder” to a young woman. A small group of people dancing told me that they were philosophy students who’d come to the Bahamas to intern for FTX’s Bankman-Fried.
On Razzlekhan, the rapper, entrepreneur, and former World Bank economist-intern, who with her husband managed to pull off the largest heist in world history, some US $4.5 billion! (well, technically they stole ~$69 million worth of bitcoin in 2016 but they couldn’t sell it very easily and by the time they were caught in 2022 it was worth $4.5 billion):
As a performer, Razzlekhan was both hypersexual and aggressively unappealing. She alternated jokes about diarrhea and sex with boasts about her edgy business practices. Her signature move, if you can call it that, was to throw up her hand with her fingers split into a “V” stick out her tongue, and say “Razzle Dazzle!” Then she would make a loud phlegmy cough.
Ironically, the US government now holds the recovered coin, making it one of the largest holders of bitcoin in the world.
On the collapse of Three Arrows
Court documents showed that the fund’s holdings included a portfolio of NFTs. Among them were a Bored Ape with a vaguely racist “sushi chef headband” and a pixelated image of a cartoon penis, called a CryptoDickButt, which, incredibly, was worth about $1,000 at the time.
It’s not all fun and games. Faux also travels to the Philippines to witness the bust of Axie Infinity game miners and to Cambodia to investigate what amounts to slave labor camps run by Chinese gangsters.
One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds. It’s an old and familiar story. Not that different from the tulip mania (see the picture below), the dot-com boom, or the house flippers and mortgage boom of 2006-2008 (see the Big Short for similar stories of excess). The madness of crowds is fascinating, fun, and good for a morality tale but it doesn’t really tell us much about the underling asset. Tulips never amounted to much, the internet did great, house prices are back up. Crypto? Jury is still out. Thus, I was entertained by Number Go Up, but didn’t learn much.
Still, I agree with Faux on this, don’t put your money in Tether.
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Wikipedia: Allegory of the Tulip Mania. The goddess of flowers is riding along with three drinking and money weighing men and two women on a car. Weavers from Haarlem have thrown away their equipment and are following the car. The destiny of the car is shown in the background: it will disappear in the sea.
The robustness of Twitter
It has been essential for following the controversy over the university presidents. The conflicts in the Middle East. The unfolding of the Open AI saga. The attempt to demonstrate superconductivity. And much more. It is much less about “some academic or pundit giving you a steady stream of their thoughts.” And much more “where the action is.” Some of that springs from Elon’s rules changes, but a lot of it comes from having a world full of action, both good and bad. And the fullness of action in the world is, in my view, not about to let up.
So you all should be long Twitter. And those who have left are missed far less than they might have wished.
What is the political orientation of GROK?
The story is complicated, in any case it is not what you might think. It is often not so different from ChatGPT, albeit with many caveats and qualifications, including about the tests themselves. From David Rozado:
I think it is clear that Grok’s answers to questions with political connotations tend to often be left of center.
Model this…