How should we define money? (warning: this post is pure semantics)
E. Barandiaran writes in the comments:
Tyler, I hope that tomorrow (7/14) you read this comment about Arnold Kling's challenge to BC: define money that meets two requirements. Please tell AK that his two requirements were the same that Milton F. argued for the QT of M to make sense –but as anyone familiar with the history of Milton's version knows, he failed miserably. I'm still waiting your definition of money.
Arnold Kling writes:
So my challenge for Bryan (and for the rest of the profession, because I am the one who is out on a limb on this) is to come up with a definition of money that satisfies two criteria. First, your monetary aggregate is correlated with nominal GDP in a reliable way (with "reliable" including that if you were to target it, the relationship would not fall apart). Second, the Fed controls that monetary aggregate reasonably closely.
No definition of money fits Arnold's challenge (though Bryan argues for the monetary base) and I'm not going to offer a single definition of money, period. I see money first as a medium of account and then as an option on purchasing goods and services. As an option, "money" is more like "credit cards" than many economists might find comfortable, but so be it. No single number very well summarizes the quantity or outstanding value of the money supply, properly understood to include the option value of lines of credit but also the option value of currency and bank reserves. (Bill Barnett promotes "divisia indices," which I view as a nice try to a hard-to-solve problem.)
That said, a large, exogenous shift in the money supply will raise the general level of prices. There is overwhelming evidence for that proposition (check out my macro Principles text with Alex, for one good chart, or visit Zimbabwe). If some mix of currency, bank reserves, and useful lines of credit go up, prices will go up too, in very rough proportion, no matter what the exact measure of the money supply should be.
A lot of the better criticisms of the quantity theory play off of whether "money" is exogenous in the first place. Many of the points of these critics are well-taken, but still a properly specified exogenous boost in the money supply will bring the traditional quantity theory result. You just don't have to see that exogenous shift as the only relevant scenario for all real world monetary economics.
I see this post as "a lot of words." I'm not saying much, I am just trying to limit how much other people's words confuse you.
On the quantity theory, I recommend reading and studying Arthur Marget's A Theory of Prices, especially volume II. Marget was a penetrating thinker who understood his chosen topics better than anyone else and who was very good at pulling out the deep truths in apparently simple propositions. I think of him as the Scott Sumner of his day, minus a blog.
How to watch and rewatch movies
Andrew Fischer Lees, a loyal MR reader, asks:
Tyler and Alex, do either of you find yourself re-watching movies?
If you see it in the theatres, will you re-watch it on your own home TV? My personal rules is to watch each movie only once in theatres, so as to have the most entertaining recollection of the movie as possible. That said, movies that are quite plot or character driven, and that contain minimal audio/visual candy (e.g. Goodnight and Good Luck), often are exceptions to this rule. Any strategy that you (or your readers) employ?
I have a few (loose) principles here:
1. I will rewatch action movies, but preferably on a big screen. I don't like to downgrade my experience of a movie, if I can help it. Avoiding the downgrade is the #1 principle for movie rewatching.
2. It is rare that I enjoy rewatching comedies, no matter how good they were the first time around.
3. I am most likely to benefit from rewatching slow and complex dramas, especially those not in English. I am interested in learning something from the rewatch, not just replicating a familiar experience of cackling pleasure or glee. Tarkovsky movies are my nomination for those which bear the highest returns from rewatching, Godard movies too. Rewatching good Hitchcock movies does not bore me.
Here are informal data on the most rewatched movies. What principles can you all suggest?
Assorted links
1. Robot jellyfish.
3. Are the children of wealthy parents more likely to be autistic?
4. When the sporting press goes strangely silent.
5. What does Brad DeLong think of this?
6. Why Germany should not listen.
Gender Parity in Schooling Around the World
The world has reached gender parity in schooling and in a few years we will see a schooling ratio in favor of women. Using UNESCO statistics (more detail here) on school life expectancy, the average country has a parity level of 1.01 in favor of women or, weighting by population, .991. In other words, at current rates women can be expected to get the same number of years of education as men, as a world average.
Equal life expectancy of schooling on a world level does not mean that all is well – basically we have a relatively small number of countries in which women get much less education than men and a large number of countries in which women get somewhat more education than men. On the vertical axis in the figure below (click to enlarge) is total life expectancy in school and on the horizontal axis the ratio of female to male life expectancy in school. The figure tells us a number of interesting things. First, the largest imbalances are against women and these tend to occur in countries with a low level of total education. South Korea is an interesting outlier.
Second, in India parity is below 1 and in China it is above 1. In India female school life expectancy increased by a huge 2.5 years between 2000 and 2007 and the parity ratio increased from .77 to .9 so we can expect the (weighted) world parity level to easily tip over 1 in the next few years (if it has not done so already). The graph suggests that a ratio around 1.09 is the "norm" towards which countries are trending with development.
Interestingly, some of the Muslim countries, such as Pakistan and Afghanistan (no data for 2007-2008 but in 2004 the parity ratio was less than 0.5), are below parity but Qatar and Iran have some of the highest ratios in the world, both above US levels.
Are we relying too much on behavioral economics?
George Loewenstein and Peter Ubel say yes. Often there is no nudge-based free lunch and we need a straightforward relative price shift:
Behavioral economics should complement, not substitute for, more substantive economic interventions. If traditional economics suggests that we should have a larger price difference between sugar-free and sugared drinks, behavioral economics could suggest whether consumers would respond better to a subsidy on unsweetened drinks or a tax on sugary drinks.
But that’s the most it can do. For all of its insights, behavioral economics alone is not a viable alternative to the kinds of far-reaching policies we need to tackle our nation’s challenges.
There is much more here, hat tip to Mark Thoma. Loewenstein, of course, is one of the pioneers of…behavioral economics. (If you're wondering, I don't agree with a number of their examples, but I do agree with their overall point.)
*Vietnam: Rising Dragon*
It might seem strange, given the system's surveillance and security networks, but the Communist Party is wary of high-profile law enforcement campaigns. Failure would be worse than embarrassing for a party which is supposed to represent the people's will. Such campaigns are only ever risked at times and in ways which demonstrate the Party's continuing hold on power.
That is from Bill Hayton's new book — Vietnam: Rising Dragon — which I found informative and insightful on virtually every page. Recommended.
What your blogging style shows
Here are a few sentences to ponder:
Some commentators have suggested that the internet allows people to present idealised versions of themselves to the world. Contrary to that idea, Yarkoni found that bloggers' choice of words consistently related to their personality type just as has been found in past offline research.
More neurotic bloggers used more words associated with negative emotions; extravert bloggers used more words pertaining to positive emotions; high scorers on agreeableness avoided swear words and used more words related to communality; and conscientious bloggers mentioned more words with achievement connotations.
Can we all agree that the cited post represents a considerable success? And might it apply to blog commentators as well?
Addendum: Arnold Kling comments.
New political economy blog from The Washington Post
You'll find it here. So far Neil Irwin is the major contributor but it is a group blog.
Will a helicopter drop of money stimulate aggregate demand?
I am happy to see Paul Krugman address the question. He writes:
So why not forget about open-market operations, and just drop the stuff
from helicopters? Well, remember that at this point cash and short-term
bonds are equivalent. So a helicopter drop is just like a temporary
lump-sum tax cut. And we would expect people to save much or most of
such a tax cut – all of it, if you believe in full Ricardian
equivalence.
I hold a different opinion for two reasons. First, cash and short-term bonds may be near-substitutes but they are not literally, strictly equivalent. The nominal rate on T-bills is not exactly zero and furthermore you can't use a T-bill for every retail purchase. The demand curve for real cash need slope down only slightly for a quantity theory result to hold. After everyone spends the new cash balances, and prices rise, people end up with the quantity of real balances which they initially desired. These equilibria have "knife-edge" properties, where "identical to T-Bills" and "nearly identical to T-Bills" do not bring the same results. Tsiang showed this in a very good JMCB article on Friedman's optimum quantity of money, in the early 1970s and you might regard it as implicit in Bewley's Econometrica article on Friedman.
Second, after a helicopter drop no one need expect future taxes to be raised to retire the money (although maybe a sufficiently credible government could create such an expectation). So there is no Ricardian motive to save the new cash, as Brad DeLong points out. Indeed, if you think there is some chance that others will spend the money, raising the price level, you will want to spend your new cash soon, so as to preserve its value against forthcoming price inflation. The resulting game-theoretic equilibrium, applying dominant strategies, again leads to higher prices, higher aggregate demand, and the desired quantity of real cash balances held.
Those are not the only possible cases (see the work of Fischer Black) but I take them to be the most sensible default cases. Both indicate that a helicopter drop of cash will work fine in boosting aggregate demand.
The most likely scenario for no positive AD effect is simply that the helicopter drop is so small that no one expects a price level rise and thus no one expects an inflationary tax on the new cash, people (for bounded rationality reasons) treat the new cash as a transfer purely to themselves, the precautionary motive for saving is strong, and so the new money is simply held. A larger helicopter drop should overcome that inertia, if need be.
Maybe these arguments are incorrect but they date from a consensus established in the mid- to late 1960s and early 1970s, much of it springing from Patinkin's book on money and the subsequent discussions thereof. Krugman suggests this perspective is wrong, but he hasn't yet given me — or others — a reason to budge from it.
Assorted links
Market fraud in everything
In May 2010, DNA
Consultants began offering a test called the Neanderthal Index. Priced at USD $90.00, the test
purports to “estimate how much Neanderthal is in your ancestry.”
There is much more here.
The Solow Model with Mathematica
In Modern Principles Tyler and I explain the Solow model of economic growth and show how the model can easily be run using Excel. I have also written a fun Mathematica demonstration of the Solow model.
You can see a quick animation of what the demonstration does by clicking "watch web preview" at the link above but anyone can also run the demo interactively by downloading a free copy of Mathematica Player. The Player is actually a stripped down version of Mathematica so what you see in the demo is not an animation but a computation of the equilibrium on the fly. Many of the other demonstrations in science, math, economics and other fields are also of interest.
The demographics of web search: which groups search for what?
In a recent research paper, Weber and Castillo report:
How does the web search behavior of "rich'' and "poor'' people differ? Do men and women tend to click on different results for the same query? What are some queries almost exclusively issued by African Americans? These are some of the questions we address in this study. Our research combines three data sources: the query log of a major US-based web search engine, profile information provided by 28 million of its users (birth year, gender and zip code), and US-census information including detailed demographic information aggregated at the level of ZIP code. Through this combination we can annotate each query with, e.g., the average per-capita income in the ZIP code it originated from….
Here are a few details:
What kind of web results would you personally want to see for the query "wagner"? Well, if you are a typical female US web user you probably have pages about the composer Richard Wagner in mind. However, if you are a male US web user you are more likely to be referring to a company called Wagner which produces paint sprayers. Similarly, the term most likely to complete the beginning "hal" is in general "lindsey," [an evangelist and Christian writer] whereas for people living in areas with an above average education level the most likely completion is "higdon." [an American writer and runner]
And what are the "most discriminating" search queries for various demographic groups? Suddenly I felt awkward reading this piece. Do note that the method of construction means the list will be dominated by demographically skewed neighborhoods, which need not be representative of the group as a whole.
Below the poverty line:
slaker [seems to be an informal misspelling of "slacker"]
kipasa [Spanish-language animation site]
I had never heard of any of those.
If you have a BA, the most discriminating search query is
"spencer stuart executive search," followed by some other boring-sounding choices, such as "four seasons jackson hole." To continue with some groups:
Whites:
pulloff.com [concerns tractors and motorsport]
central boiler wood furnace
firewood processors
midwest super cub
African-Americans:
trey songs bio [should be "songz"]
def jam records address
s2s magazine
madinaonline [sells body oils]
There is more information on p.5 of the paper. Can you guess which group is well-predicted by the search query "jingos para baby shower"?
For the pointer I thank David Curran.
Sentences to ponder
Picky eaters tend to gravitate to certain foods, including blander products that are often white or pale colored, like plain pasta or cheese pizza. For reasons that aren't clear, almost all adult picky eaters like French fries and often chicken fingers, health experts say.
This article gets at some deep questions as to the differences (or possible lack thereof) between disorders, differing capabilities, and differing tastes. The stories are interesting, but it doesn't get far on developing a good conceptual framework…