Fiscal policy poll
What are the times in history — whether in the U.S. or elsewhere — when a large-scale application of expansionary fiscal policy has been effective in raising a country out of a recession or depression?
I’ve already discussed World War II and the United States, so whether or not you agree with me there is no need to mention that episode again. I’m not (yet) looking for a debate rather I am conducting an opinion poll. Over the next few weeks or months I hope to investigate some of the cases you mention and see what is the verdict of history.
Assorted links
1. Good French meals: not in France
3. Markets in everything: a tunnel complex in central London
5. Paul Krugman: What to Do
No way would I go bungee jumping
INTJ – The Scientists
The long-range thinking and individualistic type. They are especially good at looking at almost anything and figuring out a way of improving it – often with a highly creative and imaginative touch. They are intellectually curious and daring, but might be physically hesitant to try new things.
The Scientists enjoy theoretical work that allows them to use their strong minds and bold creativity. Since they tend to be so abstract and theoretical in their communication they often have a problem communicating their visions to other people and need to learn patience and use concrete examples. Since they are extremely good at concentrating they often have no trouble working alone.
Analysis
This show what parts of the brain that were dominant during writing.
The analyzer is here.
One very bad economic indicator
A Wal-Mart
employee in suburban New York died after he was trampled by a crush of
shoppers who tore down the front doors and thronged into the store
early Friday morning, turning the annual rite of post-Thanksgiving bargain hunting into a Hobbesian frenzy.
Here is the story.
Questions that are rarely asked
Richard Green writes to me:
If the likes of Hitchcock and others could turn works that were mediocre in literature into great films, I wonder what mediocre films could have been great literature.
The point is not to come up with a list (though some of you will) but rather to ponder what we can learn about literature as a medium. He continues:
…literature adapted from films is almost (and this is a hedge because my experience says invariably) hack work, rushed and held in the lowest regard...Is it because literature is the elder medium, and has a higher status which would prevent condescension to recognising a prior from another medium? Is it because creation is more personal to a individual writer than the inevitable collaboration of film, and so they are loath to allow others’ work in?
Movies need (at least) a plot and a script and that can be taken from a book, with results of varying quality of course. But I do not have an equal understanding of which factor of production is scarce to writing a good novel. Do professional writers benefit more from showing originality in creating a world and also creating a language? There is plenty of fan fiction based on Star Trek and the like but few professional writers take this same tack.
A simple default hypothesis is that movies are more powerful and more real than books. So a movie based on a book won’t necessarily be overwhelmed by its source but a book based on a movie will be. Of course there are many books adapted from oral tales so maybe it is the addition of the pictures that is so overwhelming. I know only a few books adapted from paintings, most notably Gert Hofmann’s excellent Der Blindensturz.
Sentences to ponder
No rational regulator concerned with substantive transparency would
approve of common stock, if it were a novel investment vehicle. It
guarantees no cash flows whatever, its "control rights" are so weak for
most purchasers that representations thereof should be viewed as
fraudulent. Empirically common stock behavior is very weakly coupled to
the performance and health of the firms that stocks fund. The only
instrument in wide use more substantatively opaque than common stock is
fiat money.
Here is more, interesting throughout.
How many Obamas are there?
According to databases, there might be fewer than 20 Obama families in
the United States, compared with more than 11,000 Clintons and 60,000
Bushes…
Many of these people are being treated like VIPs. But they are not mostly from Kenya:
Nicanor, like most of the Obamas in this area, is a native of
Equatorial Guinea. The name is common there — much more so than in
Kenya, in fact, where the president-elect’s father was from — and
Guineans wonder whether they can make their own claim to a branch of
the president-elect’s family tree. There are also a few Obamas of
Japanese decent.
Here is a listing of all appearances of the word or name Obama, which includes lots from Japan, including a cable TV station. Here is the only known Obama in the UK.
Now that Brian Cowen (read the section of that link on "public image") is Prime Minister of Ireland…
Assorted links
1. Prices, Poverty, and Inequality: Why Americans are Better Off Than You Think, by Christian Broda and David E. Weinstein. The full text is free on-line at the link.
2. The economics of Scientology.
3. 5, 322, and $4250 are the relevant numbers in this story of a journal run amok. Shocking (or is it?).
4. NYT 100 Notable Books. It’s an OK enough list and you can think of these as the mainstream picks.
Betting markets in everything
Markets on whether InTrade will continue to exist. The numbers are here.
These markets are run by…InTrade.
I’ve been looking for markets in the probability of an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange (did the probability of a detonation just go up?) but I have to find one.
I thank Blake Johnson for the pointer.
Facts about the Chinese slowdown
Why then is China slowing so sharply? Simple, real estate investment
has hit a wall. After growing at 20% y/y for a long time, real estate
investment stalled – with a y/y growth rate of around 0% (Figure 5).
That means that China is in turn producing more steel and cement than
it needs, and producers of steel and cement are cutting back. That in
turns hurts iron ore exporters…This though is very much a result of China’s own policy choices. Rather
than allowing the real exchange rate to appreciate back when China was
truly booming (05-late 07/ early 08), China’s policy makers opted to
rely on administrative curbs on credit growth. That left China more
exposed to global slump in demand – as it kept exports up by limiting
real appreciation even as it credit curbs limited the amount of froth
in the real estate market back when China was booming and real interest
rates were negative. China invested a lot in real estate, but it is no
Dubai. But China’s policy makers still look to have slammed the brakes
on a bit too hard. Rather than slowing gradually, real estate
investment fell off a cliff
That’s a Brad Setser summary of work from the World Bank. Here is much more, very interesting throughout, although I doubt if there was a much smoother path than what was chosen. It is also argued that the low price of oil means China will have no problem keeping up its purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.
Addendum: Yes comments are working again…
The Life and Times of Raul Prebisch 1901-1986
The author is Edgar J. Dosman and this is a clear winner for most neglected book of the year. It is a very good economic and intellectual history of Argentina, a first-rate history of economic thought on the idea of import substitution, and an excellent biography, all at the same time.
It cost me $40 and I haven't regretted it. Every page is full of content. It's not easily excerpted but on Thanksgiving here is one bit I enjoyed:
Raúl and Adelita were now impatient to get home; they had been away for a full three months, but there was no escaping the boredom of wartime travel in the Americas, with one uncomfortable and bumpy flight after next and numerous stopovers — Miami, Mexico, Panama, Lima, Santiago, and finally Mendoza, where they boarded a train for the last leg to Buenos Aires.
You can buy it here. And if you agree with Dani Rodrik more than you agree with me, you may like the book more yet.
Comments on Prebisch and other matters of the day
This is Tyler here, not Alex. For some reason Typepad denies the comments function to my posts only. If you would like to leave comments on the Prebisch post, or other matters of the day, please use the comments section to this entry. I do hope the problems are resolved soon and like Alex I wish you all a happy Thanksgiving. You should be grateful for what you have received in life but also think what you might do in the year to come to assist others.
Happy Thanksgiving
I have a great many things to be thankful for and will be reflecting on them today. I wish all our readers the very best.
The Mumbai attacks
If you don't already know, one place to follow very rapid updates is on this Twitter feed.
Justin Wolfers throws down the gauntlet — Paul Krugman will judge
Tyler Cowen has laid down the gauntlet to the Marginal Revolution readers, pointing them to our contest to caption the infamous Bush-congratulates-Krugman photo, and urging them to “see if you can beat their readers.”
I’m also excited to announce that we have a very special guest judge: Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman has agreed to pick the winning entry.
Freako readers, add your entry here; Marginal Revolters, try here.
The link is here. If Justin (and indeed Paul) is willing to count the MR entries that already have been created (here and here) and since Typepad comments are currently down leave new ideas here, I'll bet Justin dinner at the restaurant of the choice of the winner, U.S. only. Justin, are we on?