Assorted links
1. Will computers ever fully solve chess?, from Ken Regan.
2. Do inequality and slavery matter for later Brazilian outcomes?
3. Increasingly, I think meals like this are B.S. Two years ago I ate at Noma, now labeled "the best restaurant in the world" and I barely enjoyed it.
4. Is Bill Simmons my favorite writer these days? How many journalists or for that matter social scientists are as consistently smart and insightful? Why can't they be?
5. Should we judge Supreme Court Justices (and nominees) by their taste in art?
*Liberated Cooking*
I've been browsing this 1987 book, edited by Marty Zupan and Lou Villadsen, of recipes from libertarians and classical liberals. Nobel Laureate James M. Buchanan offers up his take on Middle Tennessee Fried Corn, claiming "Properly done, this is the best dish in the world!"
Select several ears of fresh field corn (not sweet corn), preferably Hickory King white corn. Husk ears, then cut tips of kernels into bowl. Then scrape remaining milk of kernels into bowl.
Add water and salt to mixture. Add 2 tbsp. lard (or other fat) to mixture.
Put in skillet and cook over moderate heat (simmer) for one hour. Add water as needed. Stir to prevent sticking.
You'll also find recipes from Robert Heinlein, Murray Rothbard (he claims his favorite dessert of Cherry Clafouti violates the otherwise praxeological law of diminishing marginal utility), two from David Friedman (medieval and Icelandic), Buchanan's pizza recipe, Ron Paul, David Henderson, Henry Hazlitt, and last but not least Milton Friedman's account of the stuffed cabbage which Rose cooked for him, inspired by her mother Sarah Director. Buchanan's is the only one which sounded tasty to me, possibly the Friedman recipe also.
What I’ve been reading
1. Ukraine & Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry, by Anatol Lieven. I didn't think I needed to read a dated book on Russian-Ukrainian relations, but in fact I did. This has excellent detail and conceptual analysis on every page. Recommended.
2. Neurodiversity: Discovering the Extraordinary Gifts of Autism, ADHD, Dyslexia, and Other Brain Differences, by Thomas Armstrong. I don't agree with all the details in this book, but so far it is the major popular statement of the position outlined by its title.
3. William Vollmann, Kissing the Mask: Beauty, Understatement and Femininity in Japanese Noh Theater, with Some Thoughts on Muses (Especially Helga Testorf), Transgender Women, Kabuki Goddesses, Porn Queens, Poets, Hou. What can one say about Vollmann at this point? The title is descriptive, for sure, and the author loves his topic. He's massively flawed to read but still more alive than most writers. Here are earlier MR posts on Vollmann, who issues large and deeply informed tomes at the rate I produce blog posts.
4. Kai Bird, Crossing Mandelbaum Gate: Coming of Age Between the Arabs and Israelis, 1956-1978. This is a fascinating portrait of the mid-century Arab world, a story of a itinerant childhood, plus it's an account of festering Mideast conflicts, a political Bildungsroman, and, every now and then, a story of what it's like to be an Israel skeptic and also be married to a woman whose parents are Holocaust survivors. Intelligent on every page.
5. Frank Trentmann, Free Trade Nation. The rise and decline of free trade ideology in Britain, told in scholarly yet exciting fashion. I am just starting this one.
The new food pessimism
This LRB article by Jeremy Harding articulates an increasing fear that food markets will not operate smoothly over the next decade or two. He gives some major reasons (only partially reproduced here) to be pessimistic:
The first is the nature and extent of population growth: we are six billion now and by 2030 we’ll be eight billion…
The second is ‘the nutrition transition’: generations that once lived on grains, pulses and legumes have been replaced by more prosperous people with a taste for meat and dairy. Crops like maize which once fed many of us directly now feed fewer of us indirectly, via a costly diversion from which they emerge in the value-added form of meat. Global production of food – all food – will have to increase by 50 per cent over the next 20 years to cater for two billion extra people and cope with the rising demand for meat.
The third factor is energy: the industrial production of food is sure to become more expensive as fuel costs rise. It takes 160 litres of oil to produce a tonne of maize in the US; natural gas accounts for at least three-quarters of the cost of making nitrogen fertiliser; freight, too, depends on fuel.
Land is the fourth. The amount of the world’s land given over to agriculture continues to grow (in the UK, roughly 70 per cent of land is agricultural), but in per capita terms it’s shrinking. As with oil, it’s possible to envisage ‘peak food’ (the point of maximum production, followed by decline), ‘peak phosphorus’, i.e. the high point in the use of phosphate fertiliser (one estimate puts it at 2035), and, as the FAO suggests in its diplomatic way, ‘peak land’: the point at which the total area of the world’s most productive land begins to diminish (soil exhaustion, climate change) and marginal land comes up for reassessment.
[Fifth] Alternative fuels are reducing the amount of land available for growing food.
The Julian Simon-savvy crowd that reads MR might not be so impressed, but I wouldn't write off these worries so quickly. On the list, #1 and #2 do not impress me per se, but they do require that market mechanisms of adjustment be allowed to operate. Note that agriculture and land markets are highly regulated around the world and that you don't have to read this as a story of market failure. As for #3, most energy is mispriced today. Keeping it cheap means growing pressure on that externality, while taxing it means a solid whack to a lot of food markets. #5 stems from bad government policies. Another problem, mentioned later by Harding, is that very often water for agriculture is subsidized and unsustainably so. Keeping water cheap means growing pressure on that externality, while removing the subsidies (which I favor) means a solid whack to a lot of food markets, at least in the short run. The world as a whole is consuming its capital of aquifers and the like and engaging in short-term thinking by refusing to let the price of water rise as it ought to. Internalizing all the relevant externalities, and increasing sustainable long-run production, would in fact mean big "tax" hikes on growing food today.
There is also a critical scale at which fertilizer run-off and erosion externalities start to matter at a level beyond which we are accustomed to seeing.
I believe these factors mean a stronger case for agricultural free trade, rather than "localism," yet at the same time removing the subsidies for sprawl. Yet so far the people worried most about these issues are often the ones with the least economically informed answers. It would be a mistake to, say, mock Paul Ehrlich's earlier doom-saying predictions and ignore these problems altogether.
Slavoj Žižek on Sarah Palin
I don't usually blog this topic, but I was struck by this passage, from Žižek's new Living in the End Times. Maybe it's what you would get if Andrew Sullivan were a Lacanian and a Hegelian:
Earlier generations of women politicians (Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi, Margaret Thatcher, up to a point even Hillary Clinton) were what is usually referred to as "phallic" women: they acted as "iron ladies" who imitated and tried to outdo male authority, to be "more men than men themselves." …Jacques-Alain Miller pointed out how Sarah Palin, on the contrary, proudly displays her femininity and motherhood. She has a "castrating" effect on her male opponents not by way of being more manly than them, but by using the ultimate feminine weapon, the sarcastic put-down of male authority — she knows that male "phallic" authority is a posture, a semblance to be exploited and mocked. Recall how she mocked Obama as a "community organizer," exploiting the fact that there was something sterile in Obama's physical appearance, with his diluted black skin, slender features, and big ears. Here we have "post-feminist" femininity without a complex, uniting the features of mother, prim teacher (glasses, hair in a bun), public person, and, implicitly, sex object, proudly displaying the "first dude" as a phallic toy. The message is that she "has it all" — and that, to add insult to injury, it was a Republican woman who had realized this Left-liberal dream…No wonder that the Palin effect is one of false liberation: drill, baby, drill!
Then comes the zinger:
What this means — in Hegelese — the class struggle encounters itself in its oppositional determination (gegensätzliche Bestimmung), in its distorted/displaced form, as one among many social struggles. And, in exactly the same way, "anti-elitist" populism in architecture is the mode of appearance of its opposite, of class differences.
I thought this contrast was better than any review of the book I could write. The author, by the way, makes a contrarian argument that the Khmer Rouge didn't go "far enough" (too weak a constructive plan), is joking some of the time, believes that capitalism is doomed, and apparently is still a communist though he refuses to tell us why he has a better alternative than communism as we have known it. His book is entertaining, but he ought to just become a social democrat and do mass transit studies for the Aarhus municipal government.
Assorted links
Claims I wish I understood
There is undoubtedly an elusive quality to the gauge/string duality. As well established as it is on technical grounds, it is just strange to have a fifth dimension that isn't really a dimension like the ones we know and love. It's there not so much as a physical direction, but as a concept that describes aspects of the physics of four dimensions. Ultimately, I'm not convinced that the six extra dimensions of string theory as a theory of everything will be more tangible than the fifth dimension of the gauge/string quality.
That is from Steven S. Gubser's The Little Book of String Theory. There is much in this book I did not understand, but I've seen plenty of popular physics books over the last few years. This is the first one in a long time that I both wanted to read and finished; it's full of fresh material, fresh at least to me.
Here is a podcast on gauge theory and economics, which I have yet to listen to.
Assorted links
1. Texaco tent city.
2. How much do the Greeks work?
3. Globalization has been good for world music.
4. Update from rating agency reform. And with a great sentence: "When I think about financial ethics, I sometimes falls back on “what if my dentist acted this way?” quick-test threshold for the financial sector."
5. Melvin Konner on childhood.
California fact of the day
Chug sends a good link to me, on default estimates, here is the bottom line:
The six with rankings more worrisome than California are Venezuela (the worst), followed by Argentina, Pakistan, Greece, Ukraine and the Emirate of Dubai. California ranks ahead of the Republic of Latvia, the Region of Sicily and Iraq.
As sovereign debt crises unfold, you will see increasingly innovative attempts to avoid uttering the simple words: "The government spent too much money here."
See also here for a list of "sovereign tighteners" and "sovereign wideners."
Sentences to ponder, discount babies edition
The paper finds the cost of adopting a black baby needs to be $38,000 lower than the cost of a white baby, in order to make parents indifferent to race. Boys will need to cost $16,000 less than girls.
Presumably that holds at the margin only, not for all parents. Here is more, from Allison Schrager. It seems that most couples prefer to adopt non-black girls. Here is Allison's Twitter feed.
Addendum: Here is a related story on rabbinical rulings.
Advertising and pharmaceutical prices
The classic Chicago School result was that advertising for eyeglasses lowered prices, due to increased competition. It doesn't seem the same is true for pharmaceuticals, as we see from Dhaval Dave and Henry Saffer:
Expenditures on prescription drugs are one of the fastest growing components of national health care spending, rising by almost three-fold between 1995 and 2007. Coinciding with this growth in prescription drug expenditures has been a rapid rise in direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA), made feasible by the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) clarification and relaxation of the rules governing broadcast advertising in 1997 and 1999. This study investigates the separate effects of broadcast and non-broadcast DTCA on price and demand, utilizing an extended time series of monthly records for all advertised and non-advertised drugs in four major therapeutic classes spanning 1994-2005, a period which enveloped the shifts in FDA guidelines and the large expansions in DTCA. Controlling for promotion aimed at physicians, results from fixed effects models suggest that broadcast DTCA positively impacts own-sales and price, with an estimated elasticity of 0.10 and 0.04 respectively. Relative to broadcast DTCA, non-broadcast DTCA has a smaller impact on sales (elasticity of 0.05) and price (elasticity of 0.02). Simulations suggest that the expansion in broadcast DTCA may be responsible for about 19 percent of the overall growth in prescription drug expenditures over the sample period, with over two-thirds of this impact being driven by an increase in demand as a result of the DTCA expansion and the remainder due to higher prices.
The paper is here (NBER gate). Here is a simpler paper on advertising and prescription drug expenditures. Here is a related paper on the advertising topic. Here is another paper which generates higher prices from advertising. Pharmaceuticals could be different from eyeglasses for a few reasons, one being weaker contestability in the market, due to patent protection, another being that consumers process information about health care differently. This paper suggests that co-payments don't much help reduce inappropriate demands for pharmaceuticals.
I thank Eric John Barker for the initial pointer.
Law and Order
A simple theory of being single and male in Washington
Michael Rosenwald, from his WaPo interviews with me, blogs an outtake. He cites my words on the dating market in Washington, D.C.:
I think it's better to date here if you are male. Government attracts a disproportionate share of intelligent women. I've never lived in New York, but there are so many celebrities, billionaires. If you are a guy in New York, there's always another guy that crushes you on the scale. Here, there are all these politicians but they are really out of commission for the most part — or if they fool around, it's with interns. You don't have to compete with them. The people who are really high status are off the market. As a male in Washington, you can be high in status fairly easily without the true very high status competing. In New York or L.A., there are movie stars and directors. Even if a woman can't be with a movie star, women can still say, 'Gee, this guy or that guy is not a movie star or a director.' There's lobbyists and lawyers here, a lot of them. You can be more interesting than that. This is a great place to live.
Sentences to ponder
"There’s a reason elite schools speak of training leaders, not thinkers–holders of power, not its critics."
Assorted links
1. Economists on crime and anatomy.
2. Can Greece cut its deficit by ten percent of gdp? And an NYT fiscal symposium, including yours truly.
3. Robert Frank responds to David Friedman.
4. World's strangest vending machines.
5. Via Chris F. Masse, never underestimate the power of a good story (one minute video).
6. The business model of Wall Street?
7. Matt Yglesias on spending cuts for the UK.
8. Bernanke commencement speech (footnote 13 cites MR).
9. How changing labor markets have made fiscal stimulus less effective.