*The Globalization Paradox*

The author is Dani Rodrik and the subtitle is Democracy and the Future of the World Economy and it is due out early next year.

It is a very good introduction to the Rodrik world view.  If you already know the Rodrik worldview, I am not sure it offers anything new.  Still, it is worth reading through the Rodrik worldview more than once.  I prefer the Rodrik "every country is different" tack to the "globalization, nation-state, democracy — choose two" emphasis (and here), and this book slants in that direction, though it has both. 

When it comes to the "choose two" approach, I wonder at what margin must we choose — doesn't Sweden have all three today?  Doesn't politics involve a lot of juggling balls in the air anyway?  A country with a high rate of productivity growth can manage all sorts of tensions and a country without such growth cannot; I would sooner start the analysis with that distinction.

What is the most likely source of doomsday in 2012?

Alek has a request:

1) While I'm far from a doomsayer, I'm wondering what is the best way to bet in favor of the world ending in 2012? Betting against is pretty obvious.

I am taking this to ask what is the most likely cause of the destruction of all civilization, circa 2012, and not how to collect on the bet, in which case he should read Pascal.  (If the 2012 end of the world won't be a total surprise, any leveraged short position should do, but spend the money quickly!)

Here are some hypotheses, but my answer is: destruction of the earth by space aliens.

Here are previous MR posts on The Fermi Paradox.  Rampaging space aliens would explain why we don't see more civilizations out there, plus predatory ways imply that contact is short-lived, thereby making our current lack of contact more likely in the Bayesian sense.

We could be living in some kind of "branching/splitting" theory where the highest number of branches come right before everything ends and for Bayesian reasons we expect to be right up against that final point.  Still, why should we think that maximum branching/splitting is coming in 2012?  After a Lakers threepeat, are there no more possible worlds to create?  

The overwhelming probability from a nuclear exchange, at least circa 2012, is that it would remain limited, albeit highly destructive.  A pandemic is unlikely to kill more than a billion people.  A very large asteroid or a super-volcano explosion can be considered other leading contenders for world-enders.

A few nights ago Natasha and I saw The Day the Earth Stood Still, 1951 version.  It's more a tract on foreign policy than science fiction and Klaatu of course is a stand in for the United States.  I hadn't seen it in over twenty years and I'm astonished how well the movie captures and presages today's current mix of paranoia and utter unpreparedness, vis-a-vis "aliens."  It works poorly when Klaatu dons the rhetoric and tactics of the United States in galactic affairs, combined with equally clumsy implied threats, backed by no moral authority but superior hardware.  It's one of the scariest, and best, movies to watch in 2010, with a superb Bernard Herrmann soundtrack and it also has good shots of WDC in 1951.  I won't give away the ending but a careful listen shows it's as pessimistic about the aliens as anything.  Supposedly the movie deeply influenced Ronald Reagan and brought him to the arms control table.

“Cash for Clunkers” failed

Here is a new paper by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi:

A key rationale for fiscal stimulus is to boost consumption when aggregate demand is perceived to be inefficiently low. We examine the ability of the government to increase consumption by evaluating the impact of the 2009 "Cash for Clunkers" program on short and medium run auto purchases. Our empirical strategy exploits variation across U.S. cities in ex-ante exposure to the program as measured by the number of "clunkers" in the city as of the summer of 2008. We find that the program induced the purchase of an additional 360,000 cars in July and August of 2009. However, almost all of the additional purchases under the program were pulled forward from the very near future; the effect of the program on auto purchases is almost completely reversed by as early as March 2010 – only seven months after the program ended. The effect of the program on auto purchases was significantly more short-lived than previously suggested. We also find no evidence of an effect on employment, house prices, or household default rates in cities with higher exposure to the program.

Ungated versions of the paper are here.

*Pictures of the Socialistic Future*

In his preface, Bryan Caplan writes:

Yet almost no one questioned the socialists' idealism.  By 1961, however, the descendents of the radical wing of the Social Democratic Party had built the Berlin Wall — and were shooting anyone who tried to flee their "Workers' Paradise."…Who could have foreseen such a mythic transformation?

Eugene Richter, that's who, in 1893.  There is now a reissue of Richter's Pictures of the Socialistic Future.  There is an interview with Bryan Caplan about the book here.  Here is the book on-line and free.

Haiti fact of the day

By some estimates, the quake left about 33 million cubic yards of debris in Port-au-Prince – more than seven times the amount of concrete used to build the Hoover Dam. So far, only about 2 percent has been cleared, which means the city looks pretty much as it did a month after the Jan. 12 quake.

The story is here and for the pointer I thank the eagle-eyed Daniel Lippman.

Zero price markets in everything, religious search engines

Shea Houdmann runs SeekFind, a Colorado Springs-based Christian search engine that only returns results from websites that are consistent with the Bible. He says SeekFind is designed "to promote what we believe to be biblical truth" and excludes sites that don't meet that standard.

Houdmann says a search on his site would not turn up pornography. If you search “gay marriage,” you would get results that argue against gay marriage. And if you type in “Democratic Party,” your first search result is a site on Marxism.

But SeekFind isn’t the only search engine carving a niche market among religious Internet users. There is also Jewogle for Jews and I'mHalal, a Muslim search engine that started in the Netherlands.

The Muslim site is already getting ten million users (or is that site visits?) a month.  The full story is here and for the pointer I thank Anastasia.

Addendum: I couldn't get the Christian search engine to work at all; the site blames heavy traffic [I tried again; googling my name gets you to Tyler Perry.  If you google "economics", "Islamic economics" pops up before "Christian economics" and "postmodern economics" comes before both].  The Halal site brought up more or less normal results both for my name and for "economics," although page one for the latter had some squirrely (non-Muslim) results, such as Hunter College.  I don't appear in Jewogle at all, but an economics query will bring you to a list of Nobel Laureates.

Which public figures have integrity?

UWC pleads:

I'm having a hard time coming up with many independently and oddly Google is failing to find a list.

Nelson Mandela
Garry Kasparov
Oprah Winfrey
Ellen DeGeneres
David Letterman
Simon Cowell

Help!

How did David Letterman get on that list?  Does Simon Cowell make the cut?  Is it about who has integrity or who is perceived as having integrity?

It also depends who you count as a public figure and whether they still must be living or only recently deceased.  For a few, how about Margaret Thatcher, Hans Blix, Anna Politkovskaya, Ben Goldacre, Lech Walesa, Christopher Reeve, Neil Armstrong, the passengers who downed the flight hijacked by al-Qaeda, leading members of the Iranian opposition, and any number of political dissidents, starting with Burma and Aung San Suu Kyi.  Lee Kuan Yew is a more controversial option; he has been a non-corrupt leader who led his country to a very good place, and more or less eliminated corruption, but he has not always respected civil liberties.  Nonetheless integrity is not the only value and I don't wish to use the word as a stand-in for all other values of import.

Who am I forgetting?  What would Robin Hanson say about this list?

Very bad incentives in New York State

State institutions for the developmentally disabled generate so much federal Medicaid money that New York's other programs for people with intellectual disabilities would be threatened without them, state officials acknowledge in an internal document obtained by the Poughkeepsie Journal.

The article is here.  It gets worse:

The document, labeled "Confidential – Policy Advice," raises questions about the state's decision to keep 1,100 institutional beds at eight centers that were once slated to close.

And that is not all:

The Medicaid reimbursement rate for state institutions is $4,556 per person per day, the Poughkeepsie Journal has reported, three to four times higher than the cost of care.

Or this:

Put another way, just 1 percent of New York's developmentally disabled population – its 1,400 institutionalized people – generates about 40 percent of federal Medicaid money for the system, operated by the state Office for People With Developmental Disabilities.

This is one root of the problem:

The reason New York's rate is so much higher than the cost of care is a provision in the formula that, since the 1980s, allowed the state to keep two-thirds of federal payments for residents moved from institutions into community homes.

The Poughkeepsie Journal uncovered quite a story.  How does this sentence grab you?:

New York is well-known among disability researchers and providers for its ability to maximize Medicaid revenues, reaping more federal money for the developmentally disabled than any other state.

And does it put people to work?

New York's nine high-cost institutions are part of the reason, but a greater factor is the sheer size of the system, which serves 125,000 people including nearly 37,000 in 7,500 state and private group homes. The state even has a $27-million-a-year research center on developmental disabilities, and a huge bureaucracy to manage all that: 27,000 employees in 2009 earning an average of $42,000. This includes 278 people who made more than $100,000, according to an analysis of the state's salary database.

If we pursue an earlier story, and ask about the people living in the system, it gets truly scary:

Opened in 2001 without public input or review, the LIT [Local Intensive Treatment Unit, part of this system] serves what officials say are people who have had a brush with the law. Residents are classified by "offending behaviors," and, unlike those in two other units of what is now called the Wassaic campus of the Taconic Developmental Disabilities Service Office, they are not free to leave.

The Wassaic LIT and 10 other "intensive treatment" units – some with uncomfortable resemblance to prisons – mark a stark departure from the state's historically non-punitive approach to care of people with mental disabilities.

…In fact, numbers the state did provide show the LIT is populated mostly by people who have been transferred not from the criminal justice system but from other units here and across the state system.

To return to one of the original facts:

Every one of the unit's residents, among 1,400 residents in nine state institutions, generates $4,556 per day in state and federal Medicaid reimbursements.

Twelve percent of the residents are listed as being institutionalized for "elopement."  This guy offered an skeptical perspective on what is happening:

"I don't believe that that is the case, that these people are offenders," said Sidney Hirschfeld, director of the statewide Legal Service office.

He said a very small number had any involvement in the criminal justice system and was concerned that residents were being classified by offenses for which they were not charged, tried or convicted.

Need I relate stories such as this?

In one case, a mildly disabled woman in her 50s was kept in a unit so long – 15 years – that she developed aggressive "institutional behaviors" that became the justification to keep her there. A judge ordered her released, Shea said, but months later a community home still has not been found.

“Those situations are not unique,” Shea said. “Lengths of stay are 10 to 12 years.”

And here is another perspective, from inside the politics:

“Whatever they do there, my preference would be to obviously save jobs,” Euvrard said

For the pointer I thank the ever-vigilant Michelle Dawson.

Which requests do I not respond to?

BM has a request:

TC,

would you take a hand few requests (maybe 10 or so) from the comments here and tell us (in a word:'NO' or a short sentence why) you will NOT fill them?

I hope this request is excluded from your picks!

I won't handle those I have already written about and have no new insight on, those I will soon write about (I prefer for most of my non-blog writing to be relatively fresh), and those I have nothing to say about at all, usually because of my own lack of knowledge.  On top of that big pile, a small number of requests — small in percentage terms at least — strike me as best addressed by a quizzical, offbeat non-response.

I answer all the rest.