The roots of independent media

It seems to be advertising revenue, which gives media the incentive to appeal to a broad audience and the means to be independent of particular donors and interest groups:

The source of media revenues is an important
determinant of media behavior. News coverage depends on the preferences
of those who pay the costs. In a theoretical model, I argue that higher
potential advertising revenues increase the value of news outlet’s
audience and thus decrease media dependence on subsidies of interest
groups. The model shows that higher advertising profitability implies
lower media bias and less distortion caused by the presence of special
interest groups. I use data on 19th century American newspapers to test
the model, showing that there were more independent newspapers in
counties with higher profitability of advertising. The effect of
advertising works through both the entry of new newspapers and changes
of affiliation of old newspapers.

That’s from a new paper by Maria Petrova, who is on the job market this year from Harvard.

How popular music reshaped high school status networks

One side effect of the rise of popular musicians to media stars, and the displacement of couples dancing by musical performance-watching, was to make music concerts into an alternative gathering place to the arenas dominated by the traditional school elites, the jocks and popular party-goers and stars of the dating market.  As popular music consumption became the central identifying point of youth cultures, it also came to support greater pluralism in student status hierarchies, punk and other alternative culture groups acquired their own venues where they could generate their own collective effervescence, dominating in their own emotional attention spaces.  Moshers became the leading edge of punk culture, the attention-getters within their chief cultural rituals and gathering places.  Not surprisingly, there is strong antagonism between moshers and jocks, their chief counterparts in the use of controlled violence in the conventional youth culture.

That is from Randall Collins, Violence: A Micro-sociological Theory.  Here is my previous post on the book.  By the way, if you find questions like this interesting, it is yet another reason to watch the TV show Friday Night Lights.

Do monkeys self-deceive?

In a fascinating column, John Tierney writes:

The Yale experiment was a variation of the classic one that first
demonstrated cognitive dissonance, a term coined by the social
psychologist Leon Festinger. In 1956 one of his students, Jack Brehm,
carted some of his own wedding gifts into the lab (it was a low-budget
experiment) and asked people to rate the desirability of things like an
electric sandwich press, a desk lamp, a stopwatch and a transistor
radio.

Then they were given a choice between two items they
considered equally attractive, and told they could take one home. (At
the end of the experiment Mr. Brehm had to confess he couldn’t really
afford to give them anything, causing one woman to break down in
tears.) After making a choice (but before having it snatched away),
they were asked to rate all the items again.

Suddenly they had a
new perspective. If they had chosen the electric sandwich press over
the toaster, they raised its rating and downgraded the toaster. They
convinced themselves they had made by far the right choice.

So,
apparently, did the children and capuchin monkeys studied at Yale by
Louisa C. Egan, Laurie R. Santos and Paul Bloom. The psychologists
offered the children stickers and the monkeys M&M’s.

Once a monkey was observed to show an equal preference for three colors
of M&M’s – say, red, blue and green – he was given a choice between
two of them. If he chose red over blue, his preference changed and he
downgraded blue. When he was subsequently given a choice between blue
and green, it was no longer an even contest – he was now much more
likely to reject the blue.

I would distinguish between self-deception and an endowment effect.  We value more what is ours, perhaps because of our biological programming — to protect our children above those of others — spills over into decisions more generally.  (Or perhaps because of a precommitment strategy to limit violent plunder of our resources.)  Self-deception is then layered on top, but in fact many mothers will argue that their kids are lazier or less obedient than the average.  The endowment effect holds nonetheless, as those mothers care more about their kids.  It is very hard to switch back babies once the hospital makes a mistake in allocation (how much time must elapse?), even if the parents know for sure they did not take home the genetically appropriate little bundle of joy.

I can see that the monkeys behave according to an endowment effect.  I am less sure that the monkeys self-deceive.  The key question, in my view, is whether the monkeys would throw out or downgrade information that some other bundle of food was in fact better than M&Ms.

Speaking to the Swiss

A group of Swiss businessmen will hear first Pascal Lamy on economic globalization and then me on cultural globalization.  I must keep in mind the fundamental principles of speaking to the Swiss.  Unlike virtually all American audiences, the listeners do not expect to be entertained.  Efforts to entertain will insult some of them.  I need not reach my main point until the end of the talk.  Taxonomy for its own sake is not detested, but PowerPoint is viewed with suspicion.

Ethnic food here is improving rapidly, but a simple daal with bread and rice can cost $20; the lovely scenery isn’t the only reason immigrants wish to get in. 

Remember, remember the 5th of November

Ron Paul has now passed Fred Thompson in the probability of winning the Republican nomination.  According to Intrade, Paul has a probability of winning the nomination of 8.8%. (Guiliani (42.0%) and Romney (27.6%) are first and second.)

In closely related news, Paul raised $4.2 million yesterdayV.

Thanks to Barry Klein and Tim Groseclose for the tips.

Is uncompensated care for the uninsured driving up medical costs?

No, say Jonathan Gruber and David Rodriguez:

We measure uncompensated care as the net amount that physicians lose by
lower payments from the uninsured than from the insured. Our best
estimate is that physicians provide negative uncompensated care to the
uninsured, earning more on uninsured patients than on insured patients
with comparable treatments. Even our most conservative estimates
suggest that uncompensated care amounts to only 0.8% of revenues, or at
most $3.2 billion nationally.

Can any of you find an ungated copy of this paper?

Supercapitalism, by Robert Reich

Finally, I will come to some conclusions you may find surprising — among them, why the move toward improved corporate governance makes companies less likely to be socially responsible.  Why the promise of corporate democracy is illusory.  Why the corporate income tax should be abolished.  Why companies should not be held criminally liable.  And why shareholders should be protected from having their money used by corporations for political purposes without their consent.

That’s from Robert Reich’s Supercapitalism.  I’m coming late to this party, but mostly I liked the book.  It’s full of fresh thinking and most of all it is excellent on just how much invisible hand mechanisms shape an economy.  It has the best explanation (and partial defense) of high CEO pay I’ve seen, namely supply and demand.  If you think it is exploitation of shareholders, take a look at how much private equity pays its CEOs.  And as the above quotation indicates, Reich is willing to rethink just about all the old left-wing shibboleths (what a biased word) about corporations.  He separates the analysis from the moral narrative, so when you disagree with him, that point is an isolated one and it does not infect everything he says.

Reich recommends that we strengthen atrophied democratic constraints on capitalist outcomes; in his view special interest politics are just another form of capitalism and special interests are crushing voter influence.  "Bryan Caplan, telephone!"

By the way, make sure you read this piece on the futility of campaign finance reform, which counts as one of the most overrated ideas.

Here is Greg Mankiw on the book.  Here is another take on the book

China fact of the day

…there are 100 gigawatts of "illegal" electric power plants in China,
meaning plants not approved by the central government. (The entire
nation of France uses 80 gigawatts of power. China uses 650 gigawatts.)

China sentence of the day is also a citation from Arnold Kling:

China’s central government has difficulty getting its constituencies to
change, and it is "outsourcing" some forms of regulation and governance
to the U.S. and international organizations.

China essay of the day is here.

Kottke interview of Cory Doctorow

Joel Turnipseed blogging at Kottke asks, why give away books for free?  Cory responds:

…we live in a century in which copying is only going to get easier. It’s the 21st
century, there’s not going to be a year in which it’s harder to copy than this
year; there’s not going to be a day in which it’s harder to copy than this day….And so, if
your business model and your aesthetic effect in your literature and your work
is intended not to be copied, you’re fundamentally not making art for the 21st
century. It might be quaint, it might be interesting, but it’s not particularly
contemporary to produce art that demands these constraints from a bygone era….

So that’s the artistic reason. Finally, there’s the ethical reason. And the
ethical reason is that the alternative is that we chide, criminalize, sue, damn
our readers for doing what readers have always done, which is sharing books they
love–only now they’re doing it electronically. You know, there’s no solution
that arises from telling people to stop using computers in the way that
computers were intended to be used. They’re copying machines. So telling the
audience for art, telling 70 million American file-sharers that they’re all
crooks, and none of them have the right to due process, none of them have the
right to privacy, we need to wire-tap all of them, we need to shut down their
network connections without notice in order to preserve the anti-copying
business model: that’s a deeply unethical position. It puts us in a world in
which we are criminalizing average people for participating in their
culture.

The economics have yet to be worked out but I think Cory has got the aesthetics and the ethics right.  Lots more of interest.

Violence: A Micro-sociological Theory

That’s the new book from Randall Collins. The main argument is that people are not as predisposed to violence as we might think.  Collins cites a wide array of evidence, from military behavior in the field to, most intriguingly, video studies of the micro-expressions of violent perpetrators.  People are more naturally tense and fearful, sometimes full of bluster but usually looking to avoid confrontation unless they have vastly superior numbers on their side.  The prospect of violence makes people feel weak and scared.  The greatest dangers of violence arises from atrocities against the weak under overwhelming conditions, ritualized violence enacted in front of supportive audiences, or clandestine terrorism or murder.

"Violence is not primordial, and civilization does not tame it; the opposite is much nearer the truth."  Similarly, most political violence does not follow from centuries-old grudge matches, but rather from recently fabricated, dynamically dangerous social ritual interactions.  Violence can appear on the scene rapidly but it can vanish as well, so there is hope for Iraq.

In reality most violent encounters end almost immediately, contrary to TV and the movies.  Someone runs away or a single punch ends the struggle.  The actual gunfight at O.K. Corral took less than thirty seconds, whereas the famous movie scene extends for ten minutes.

In combat it is just as dangerous to be a medic as a soldier, but medics experience far less combat fatigue.  Collins argues this is because killing is in so many ways contrary to human nature.

This book has soo many interesting parts, including the micro-dynamics of the Rape of Nanjing, how British soccer stadium designs were (but now less) conducive to violence, how demonstrations can turn into violent confrontations with the police (lines break down and micro-situations of overwhelming power arise), which children and schools are most conducive to bullying, why basketball has fewer fights than football or hockey (no padding), the dynamics of a mosh pit, and how hired assassins motivate themselves, among many other topics.

You economists all spend so much time studying voluntary interaction, surely you can devote one book’s worth of effort to the study of violence, and yes I mean violence at the micro level.

I don’t agree with everything in this book.  I think Collins too quickly downplays the importance of evolutionary biology (most fights are between young males), and it is not always clear if he has a systematic theory or instead a catalog of causes of violence.

Here is the book’s home page, including chapter one.  Here is a page on Collins.  Here is an interview with Collins.  He is now working on a theory of sexual interactions.

Quite simply, Collins is one of the most important writers and thinkers today.

I know many of you have a bit of book fatigue from MR, but that is because it has been such a splendid year for the written word.  Violence: A Micro-sociological Theory is one of the most important social science books of the last few years. I’ll go even further and say the same is true for any random one hundred pages you might select from the volume; it is also a wonderful for browsing.

It’s due out January 10, you can pre-order at the links.

Shopping hour restrictions

In Zurich almost everything is closed on Sundays, even my hotel restaurant.  There is one massive underground shopping mall clustered at the railway station, where for obvious reasons ("travelers") there is a Sunday shopping exemption.  I believe this is by far the largest mall in Zurich and of course it was open.  The ugliness of the mall, and the inconvenience of the low ceilings, illustrates just how much Sunday shopping is worth.  (That is why one of the world’s wealthiest cities, and a pretty one at that, has such a monstrosity for shopping.)  Small entrepreneurs cannot compete with this (chain-laden) mall on Sundays, so I wonder if the hours restriction even favors small business on net.  The legal restrictions on outworking the competition also help explain why immigrants to Switzerland don’t move up the economic ladder as well as many American immigrants do.

Free Swiss shopping, free it now.

George Bush knows how to keep a meeting short

I used to think that short meetings were best.  Clearly, I confused the private with the social optimum.
Bushmeeting

For bonus points compare the picture with Tyler’s discussion of meetings.  How many items can you spot?

Meetings are not always about the efficient exchange of information, or
discovering a new idea. Meetings can be about displays of power,
signaling that a coalition is in place, wearing down an opponent,
staging "theater" to make someone feel better, giving key players the
feeling of being insiders, transmitting information about status, or
simply marking time until something better happens. It’s one thing to
hate meetings. But before you can improve them, make sure you know what
meetings are all about.

Hat tip to J-Walk Blog for the picture.