Markets in everything

Occasionally I get jaded and think there won't be a surprising one of these ever again.  But then Allison Kasic comes along and restores my faith in the creativity of humankind.  Here goes:

Mountain climbers. Livestock guarders. Long-range spitters. And now
llamas have a new distinguishing role to add to their resume: golf
caddy. Yes, for $40 the llamas at Sherwood Forest Country Club
will carry your bags, accompany you on a nine-hole run, and maybe even
channel their peaceful temperament into quiet but unwavering moral
support.

There is also a reason on the cost side:

Because of their soft, padded feet, llamas do not make marks on the
green and actually leave the courses with less damage than golf carts.

There is another reason given in the text, which I don't wish to reproduce here.  And it is possible to train them to do this work, or so it is claimed.  Finally:

“Some people have more fun walking the animals around than playing golf,” says Lautenschlager…

Addendum: Via John de Palma, more on llama markets.

Competition and Concentration in Health Insurance

Many people have bandied about numbers suggesting that the market for health insurance is highly concentrated.  Here is the President:

Consumers do better when there is choice and competition. Unfortunately, in 34 states, 75% of the insurance market is controlled by five or fewer companies. In Alabama, almost 90% is controlled by just one company….

But these statistics only include people insured by "insurance companies" even though nationally just over half of all employees get their health insurance from a firm that self-insures.  In other words, as John Lott points out, over half of the market for insurance is being left out of these concentration statistics.

Since about half of employees are insured by a self-insurer, concentration statistics–as typically presented –should be cut roughly in half (precise numbers vary by state).  Firms that self-insure typically outsource benefits management and claim
administration to highly competitive third party administrators.  A key fact according to this paper (which is outdated although I wouldn't expect the basic finding to have changed) is that the populations served, the benefits paid and the premiums paid are about the same for firms that self-insure and firms that buy insurance from a health insurance company.  Thus, concentration among that part of the market served by health insurance firms appears to be well disciplined by the larger market for self-insurance.

What’s the chance the financial crisis was welfare-improving?

The price of corn, for example, is down 56 percent since July 2008 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Here is more.  I don't in fact think that the financial crisis has improved global welfare.  But we are trained to think probabilistically.  What is the chance that the gains from lower commodity prices — most of all for poor people who buy food — outweigh the losses from the collapse of world trade and lower overall growth?

Just wondering.

Addendum: Here are some related queries.

Is the plan to rework Tysons Corner collapsing?

Maybe so:

Fairfax County planners on Wednesday will propose rules for builders in Tysons Corner that retreat from the vision
local officials approved last fall, a shift some civic leaders worry
will jeopardize the blueprint to remake the area into a walkable urban
center.

It seems the eight "mini-cities" are on the way out.  Why?  The area's Revolutionary War era roads can't handle too much additional population density:

Zook and his staff have concluded that the density of what the task
force envisions could be built when Tysons is fully redeveloped in
about 40 years would overwhelm traffic. [TC: Forget about 40 years, it's close to that point right now for about four hours each day.]  Planners say that would be
about five times the 44 million square feet of offices, malls, condos
and townhouses there now. Before developers can build high-rises, even
near the Metrorail stations, planners say, the area's already clogged
road network will need to expand to accommodate the extra development
because many of the new residents and office workers will drive. That
would require three new interchanges on the Dulles Toll Road; another
lane on the Beltway between Interstate 66 and Route 7, in addition to
the high-occupancy toll lanes now under construction; and wider lanes
on other local roads.

That is, in a nutshell, why Fairfax County cannot and will not become like central Arlington in the Ballston and Clarendon areas.  Recall that some time ago Tysons Corner was ranked as #4 in office space in the entire U.S., if it were to be counted as a city.  Many Fairfax County residents look upon Arlington as a quaint experiment, a kind of well-laid out duck pond in somebody's backyard, but not a model for the broader suburban area.  The walkable part of Arlington is quite small compared to Tysons Corner (by the way I used to live at Tysons and also have spent time walking it) and density in central Arlington doesn't threaten to crush much of anything.

So the result at Tysons likely will be a bigger edge city with broader roads and more difficult illegal U-Turns.  As one local rent-seeker put it:

"We're not like downtown D.C., where you walk three blocks and there's
another Metro station," said Rob Jackson, president of the McLean
Citizens Association.

Rent-seeker he may be, but he's right to suggest that a much denser Tysons — no matter how well done — will overwhelm the local support roads of Vienna and McLean.  The bottom line is that path dependence is a very strong force in all these comparisons.

Books on duct tape

Duct tape is possibly the most useful single object in the entire
world outside of the wheel and Swiss army knives. Joe Wilson, a modern
design visionary if ever there was one, shows us how to rip, cut and
fold duct tape to make 18 amazing projects, including a wallet, a
barbecue apron, a lunchbox, a tool belt, a cell phone holder, a
baseball cap, rain gear for pets, a toilet roll cover and Halloween
masks.

We all need a lunch box constructed from duct tape.
If NASA insists that every Space Shuttle mission carries at least one
roll of duct tape then you need this book to satisfy your creative
urges. Buy Ductigami: The Art of the Tape – make something wonderful and gray.

The link is here and I thank Michelle Dawson for the pointer, which is in turn via this link on weird books.  There you will also find a discussion of Dale Power's controversial Do-it-Yourself Coffins for Pets and People (check out the Amazon reader reviews) and other notable titles.

The Devil Wears Fake Prada

It's no surprise that people who buy fake merchandise are more likely to cheat in other ways but in this video Dan Ariely, author of Predictably Irrational, explains another one of his ingenious experiments.  Ariely was able to show that randomly inducing people to choose or wear fake merchandise can make them significantly more likely to cheat on a subsequent task.  You are what you wear, or another example of the fundamental attribution error.

Hat tip Freakonomics.

James Hamilton replies to Scott Sumner

Over at CatoUnbound:

Let me mention one other real-world complication that has made it difficult for the Fed to achieve a faster growth of nominal GDP. Macroeconomists often like to think of inflation in terms of an aggregate price index, the variable P in the equation of exchange. But, particularly in the current environment, aggressive stimulus by the Fed is unlikely to show up as higher wages or the prices of most services, but instead would raise relative commodity prices and could in a worst case scenario precipitate a currency crisis, both of which would be highly destabilizing in their own right. I agree with Sumner that the Fed could and should have done more, but would caution that it is also possible for the Fed to try to do too much. I come back to the perspective with which I opened – given the earlier regulatory lapses, significant economic losses could not have been prevented by any monetary policy that could have been implemented in the fall of 2008.

There are many more points of interest in this dialogue and further comments to come.

Where do countries stand on the Laffer Curve?

From Mathias Trabandt and Harald Uhlig, there is a new study:

We characterize the Laffer curves for labor taxation and capital income taxation quantitatively for the US, the EU-14 and individual European countries by comparing the balanced growth paths of a neoclassical growth model featuring “constant Frisch elasticity” (CFE) preferences. We derive properties of CFE preferences. We provide new tax rate data. For benchmark parameters, we find that the US can increase tax revenues by 30% by raising labor taxes and 6% by raising capital income taxes. For the EU-14 we obtain 8% and 1%. Denmark and Sweden are on the wrong side of the Laffer curve for capital income taxation.

I guess some of those countries should cut their tax rates.  The title of the paper is How Far Are We From the Slippery Slope?  The Laffer Curve Revisited.  You'll find some ungated versions here. 

What do economists believe?

When it comes to the tax code, there is less of a consensus than I had expected to find:

Health insurance receives preferential tax treatment. Should the U.S. change the income tax code so that health insurance benefits are taxed the same as income? Economists lean ever so slightly against this idea–44 percent oppose it, while 42 percent favor it. Should the U.S. amend the income tax code to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction? Again, economists are almost evenly split. Should internet sales be exempted from taxation? The majority of economists (57 percent) say “no,” while less than a quarter favor special treatment of internet-based sales.

That's from a survey of AEA members, conducted by Robert Whaples.  The paper has other results of interest.

The culture that is Brazil

Reborn in Christ is among a growing number of evangelical churches in Brazil
that are finding ways to connect with younger people to swell their
ranks. From fight nights to reggae music to video games and on-site
tattoo parlors, the churches have helped make evangelicalism the
fastest-growing spiritual movement in Brazil.

…The night of the Extreme Fight, dozens of teenagers and young adults
hovered around the church. In the front room, booths sold hot dogs and
pizza, and young people lined up in one corner to get religious-theme
tattoos like “I Belong to Jesus.” In the main room, there were video
games, a D.J. spinning a mix of hip-hop and funk, and a projection
screen showing a DVD of the Harlem Globetrotters.

Though most
came for the main event, the Extreme Fight, they lingered. After four
fights and Pastor Maffei’s sermon, members paired up. One placed his
hand over the other’s forehead and spoke of Jesus Christ; the other
closed his eyes tightly.

Here is more.

The ethics and economics of randomized trials — a bleg

In late October I'm supposed to talk on this topic at the National Institutes of Health.  It's not so much a lecture (this is not my area) as me offering some introductory remarks — from the perspective of an outsider — and then serving as discussion leader.

What should I read?  Do you have any particular points to offer on this topic?  I (and the NIH) thank you in advance for the assistance.