Month: January 2024
*Molly*
That is the new book by Blake Butler, a memoir. It is no spoiler to tell you that his wife Molly takes her own life at a young age. I don’t know of any better argument for social conservatism than this book. And perhaps suicide should be regarded as a sin, not something to get sentimental about on Twitter. There is so much depravity in this book, at so many different levels. There is the decline of a whole civilization in this book. Here is a good New Yorker review by Alexandra Schwarz.
Are cities for tourists or residents?
And at what margin?
A new ideological struggle is brewing, yet we have not yet recognized it as such. The question is to what extent cities are for tourists, or for their current residents. Here is a report from Vermont:
A Vermont town known for its autumn foliage has closed its roads to the public for the season, citing an overwhelming amount of influencer tourists.
The select board of Pomfret voted to close Cloudland Road and Barber Hill Road to non-residents from Sept. 23 to Oct. 15. That also blocks access to the popular Sleepy Hollow Farm, a private residence that many tourists try to visit.
New York City has placed severe restrictions on AirBnb, causing hotel room prices to skyrocket. Here is more from Jerusalem Demsas.
Amsterdam has sent out warnings, designed to discourage British tourists from visiting the city for sex, drugs, and drink.
As for the Continent, The Times of London reports:
Beaches, restaurants and estate agents have been attacked by radical anti-tourism groups throughout mainland Spain and the Balearic islands this summer…Flares were let off in restaurants, tourists’ bike tyres were slashed and hooded activists besieged a sightseeing bus.
Venice may be charging day trippers five euros a pop, and I’ve seen calls for raising that price by 5x or more. That is one set of obstacles that probably makes sense, due to congestion and wear and tear on the city itself.
Cruise ships are becoming less popular at many places around the world. How about this from Florida? (NYT):
Activists flooded City Commission meetings, protested on the dock, collected signatures and managed to pass three ballot measures in 2020 imposing stricter controls to protect the marine environment and limit [cruise ship] passengers to 1,500 a day…
Maybe this one is a coincidence, but Japan is hiking the price of its bullet train pass for tourists by seventy percent.
China is schizophrenic on tourism, on one hand easing visa requirements but on the other managing payments in the country isn’t getting easier.
Obviously the right answers here are on a case-by-case basis. But political economy tells us that chosen policies will tend to overemphasize the interests of the voting residents, and underemphasize the interests of the visitors.
Plenty of these anti-tourist stories are making the news, but we’ve yet to see this part of a more systemic pattern. And that pattern is going to intensify, if only because voters are aging, nationalism is ascendant, and protectionist sentiment is on the rise.
I am also pleased to tell you all that the world is full of underexplored spots — try Salta or Kosovo for a start. Or in a major, heavily-touristed city of your choice, just walk ten or fifteen minutes away from the beaten track, if that.
It is snobby and elitist and self-satisfying to speak up against tourism, but in the future we will need a movement to defend the practice.
The economics of dinosaur brand names
But unlike a full-grown T. rex, which would be about the size of a city bus, this dinosaur was more like the size of a pickup truck.
The specimen, which is now listed for sale for $20 million at an art gallery in London, raises a question that has come to obsess paleontologists: Is it simply a young T. rex who died before reaching maturity, or does it represent a different but related species of dinosaur known as a Nanotyrannus?
The dispute has produced reams of scientific research and decades of debate, polarizing paleontologists along the way. Now, with dinosaur fossils increasingly fetching eye-popping prices at auction, the once-esoteric dispute has begun to ripple through auction houses and galleries, where some see the T. rex name as a valuable brand that can more easily command high prices.
Here is more from the NYT.
Tuesday assorted links
1. Scott Sumner on money/macro GOAT (I largely agree with his perspective and picks).
2. Monopsony amplifies distortions from progressive taxes.
3. Temporarily Coasean Ethiopia and Somaliland deal.
4. Anselm Kiefer in 3-D Glory.
5. Best skyscrapers of 2023? Notably Latin America is well ahead of China.
6. 2024 is the biggest election year in history.
7. Against habits.
Cultural Values and Productivity
By Andras Ek, forthcoming in the Journal of Political Economy:
This paper estimates differences in human capital as country-of-origin-specific labor productivity terms in firm production functions, making it immune to wage discrimination concerns. After accounting for education and experience, estimated human capital varies by a factor of around three between the 90th and the 10th percentile. When I investigate which country-of-origin characteristics most closely correlate with human capital, cultural values are the only robust predictor. This relationship persists among children of migrants. Consistent with a plausible cultural mechanism, individuals whose origin places a high value on autonomy hold a comparative advantage in positions characterized by a low degree of routinization.
Here are less gated versions of the paper.
What I’ve been reading
1. Steve Kaczynski and Scott Duke Kominers, The Everything Token: How NFTs and Web3 Will Transform the Way We Buy, Sell, and Create. Could the be the best book on NFTs? I think we should be genuinely uncertain as to whether NFTs have a future. In the meantime, I consider NFTs a good Rorschach test for whether an individual’s mind is capable of moving out of “the dismissive mode.” Do you pass or fail this test? The “snide, sniping” mode is so hard for many commentators to resist…
2. Christina Rossetti: Poetry in Art, edited by Susan Owens and Nicholas Tromans. Excellent text and also color plates, including paintings and sketches of her, a very good introduction to her work. Here is a good bit: “Rarely, if ever, has a major poet grown up so deeply embedded in an avant-garde visual culture. Yet she seems actively to have resisted the lure of the world of images, preferring to live and write, as Bell liked to think she did spontaneously, out of her own mind.” A wonderful chronicle of a very particular time, artistic and otherwise.
3. Peter Cowie, God and the Devil: The Life and Work of Ingmar Bergman. The author knew Bergman, and early on, so this is a useful biography in several regards, most of all for some background information and TV and theatre projects that never came to fruition. But it is not useful for converting the unconverted, nor does it have much more interpretative meat for the in-the-know obsessives.
4. Richard Whatmore, The End of Enlightenment: Empire, Commerce, Crisis. One of my favorite books on the British Enlightenment. For instance, the author captures the tenor of 18th century British debates about liberty very well. Very good chapters on Hume, Shelburne, and Macaulay. Whatmore somehow writes as if he is actually trying to explain things to you! If you read a lot of history books, you will know that is oddly rare. Recommended, for all those who care.
5. Anthony Kaldellis, The New Roman Empire: A History of Byzantium. So far I’ve read only 22 pp. of this one, and it clocks in at 900 pp. plus. It is obviously excellent and I wanted to tell you about it right away. I expect it to make the top few picks of the best non-fiction of 2024. The author’s main theme is that Byzantium built a “New Roman Empire,” and he details how that happened. The writing is also clear and transparent, for a time period that is not always easy to understand.
William Magnuson, For Profit: A History of Corporations is not a book for me, but it is a good and sane introduction for those seeking that.
Monday assorted links, comments, and jabs
1. A claim that we are in a new world of RBC theory.
2. Orson Welles on Woody Allen.
3. Indian books published in English translation in 2023.
4. By the way, the strongest movie actor GOAT contenders from abroad are Chow Yun-Fat, Jackie Chan, Mifune, Juliette Binoche, Isabel Huppert, Marcello Mastroianni, Klaus Kinski, and Max von Sydow. Chow Yun-Fat and Max von Sydow are my personal favorites, though I am not sure they are foreign winners in more objective terms. British people don’t count for this designation, though Charlie Chaplin is a good dark horse pick (though not the winner) for the broader designation. I can’t bring myself to mention the Putin lover from France. Mel Gibson is higher in the rankings than many people wish to admit, and he is Australian, sort of, though most of all a creature of Hollywood. Bollywood is a whole separate thing, but they have some definite contenders. As for Marlon Brando, I think too many of his performances now come across as excessively mannered. Where is his cult following? Somewhere in Osaka? He was very talented but seems of the past.
5. Any “very heavy” reliance on real shocks to explain the macro of the last two years has to account for why 2021 had high growth rates, in spite of supply chains then being quite tangled. And why prices haven’t gone back down to their original levels? And what happened to aggregate demand, once the Fed turned its attention to the problem? There simply was a huge, negative AD shock in recent times, at least under any non-tautological definition of aggregate demand. Why didn’t that crush us? Any account needs to address these issues.
Arizona fact of the day
Arizona now uses 3 percent less water than it did in 1957, despite having a population that’s mushroomed more than 555 percent since then.
That is from Tom Zoellner in the NYT. It is a good piece more generally, and it helps explain why real estate prices in the Southwest have proven robust in light of climate change concerns.
A City Not a Museum
Good Binyamin Appelbaum piece on the difficulties of building in NYC. The data will be familiar but I especially appreciate this vibe which we need more of:
I hope someday I’ll be walking with my children on the Lower East Side or the Upper West Side or Brooklyn Heights. We’ll pass one of the places where my ancestors lived, and the building will be gone. In its place will stand an apartment building, housing a new generation of New Yorkers.
See also my piece Against Historical Preservation where I wrote:
…a confident nation builds so that future people may look back and marvel at their ancestor’s ingenuity and aesthetic vision. A nation in decline looks to the past in a vain attempt to “preserve” what was once great. Preservation is what you do to dead butterflies.
A textual analysis of Enlightenment ideals
Using textual analysis of 173,031 works printed in England between 1500 and 1900, we test whether British culture evolved to manifest a heightened belief in progress associated with science and industry. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, there was a separation in the language of science and religion beginning in the 17th century. Second, scientific volumes became more progress-oriented during the Enlightenment. Third, industrial works—especially those at the science-political economy nexus—were more progress-oriented beginning in the 17th century. It was therefore the more pragmatic, industrial works which reflected the cultural values cited as important for Britain’s takeoff.
That is from a new research paper by Ali Almelhem, Murat Iyigun, Austin Kennedy, and Jared Rubin.
Is Tom Cruise actor GOAT?
Yes says I, and here is Wikipedia for reference. Adam Ozimek (from my email) agrees:
Rewatching Oblivion tonight and it really holds up. Cinematography and CGI that hasn’t aged at all. And Edge of Tomorrow is a sci fi classic for the ages now, made when he was 52.
Those metacritic scores on the recent Mission Impossible films and Top Gun are extraordinary for action blockbusters.
The Scientology stuff is not great for society, but the man tried to and maybe did save movie theaters. And don’t forget this: https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2021/05/11/tom-cruise-stands-his-expletive-laden-m-i-7-rant-over-covid-19/5041447001/
And no he hasn’t done a Rain Man style serious role in a while, but he’s shown plenty of range. Did you know how much of his tropic thunder character was his idea? https://youtu.be/a3fKXBNufy4?si=M4YPtGx8PJTHREB3
GOAT I say
Fair enough. I would start with Risky Business, from 1982, which is genuinely funny and vital and which few other actor GOAT contenders can match. A Few Good Men and Interview the Vampire I also find to his credit, all from the first decade of what is (so far) five (!) decades of being a dominant force in Hollywood. Sadly, Jerry McGuire, like Rain Man, turns me off.
Perhaps Magnolia and Eyes Wide Shut are his finest achievements? In any case they show he has a strong presence in art house cinema as well. Minority Report is seminal and Vanilla Sky has a McCartney song in the soundtrack.
Cruise has worked with top directors, including Steven Spielberg, Paul Thomas Anderson, Michael Mann and John Woo. He makes creative decisions in his movies as well. Cruise has won plenty of awards, has longevity and variety in his repertoire, and still is important for pulling in the gross. He has done many of his own stunts, even at advanced ages. He also has married three actresses — Mimi Rogers, Nicole Kidman, and Katie Holmes. He has dated Melissa Gilbert, Rebecca De Mornay, Patti Scialfa, and Cher, among others.
One of Cruise’s co-stars, Emily Blunt, described him as “insatiably positive.”
Is he “the last great movie star“? As Hegel once said, the owl of Minerva flies at dusk.
Addendum:
Harrison Ford seems to be the only serious competitor? Cary Grant is a bit too tall, wooden, and British to win, but maybe he comes in third? Jimmy Stewart didn’t have enough dramatic range. Clint Eastwood is amazing, but somehow too much a self-contained bubble? Rock Hudson has degenerated into “Straussian value” in too many of his movies. Who else?