I want to be a Saint!
I know, I know, first I dream of becoming a dictator, now a saint. Make of it what you will. It turns out, however, that becoming a saint is a lot easier than I thought. Reuters reports that:
The Vatican may have found the "miracle" they need to put the late Pope John
Paul one step closer to sainthood — the medically inexplicable healing of a
French nun with the same Parkinson’s disease that afflicted him.
Monsignor Slawomir Oder, the Catholic Church official in charge of promoting
the cause… said the "relatively young" nun, whom he said he could not identify for
now, was inexplicably cured of Parkinson’s after praying to John Paul after his
death last April 2…." (italics added).
A surprisingly frank report in Catholic World News hits the nail on the head:
Last
November, in commenting on the progress of the cause for Pope John
Paul’s beatifiction, his former secretary, Archbishop Stanislas
Dziwisz, said that there would be no problem finding a miracle to
advance the cause– or rather, that the problem would be to select one
miracle from among the many reported.
Indeed. I would be more impressed, however, if the cure rate of those who prayed to John Paul exceed that of those who prayed to Elvis. Will the Vatican be performing a t-test? I suspect not.
In anycase, to get my candidacy for sainthood going would you please ask in my name for something good to happen to you today. Go on, what have you go to lose? "In the name of Alex Tabarrok I pray that my article will be accepted by the AER." Try it out! If something good does happen please note the miracle in the comments section. Do not comment if nothing happens. Thanks!
Shopping in 1975
Don Boudreaux goes shopping in a 1975 Sears catalog.
Sears’ lowest-priced 10-inch table saw: 52.35 hours of work
required in 1975; 7.34 hours of work required in 2006.Sears’ lowest-priced gasoline-powered lawn mower: 13.14 hours
of work required in 1975 (to buy a lawn-mower that cuts a 20-inch swathe); 8.56
hours of work required in 2006 (to buy a lawn-mower that cuts a 22-inch swathe.
Sears no longer sells a power mower that cuts a swathe smaller than 22
inches.)Sears Best freezer: 79 hours of work required in 1975 (to buy
a freezer with 22.3 cubic feet of storage capacity); 39.77 hours of work
required in 2006 (to buy a freezer with 24.9 cubic feet of storage capacity;
this size freezer is closest size available today to that of Sears Best in
1975.)Sears Best side-by-side fridge-freezer: 139.62 hours of work
required in 1975 (to buy a fridge with 22.1 cubic feet of storage capacity);
79.56 hours of work required in 2006 (to buy a comparable fridge with 22.0 cubic
feet of storage capacity.)Sears’ lowest-priced answering machine: 20.43 hours of work
required in 1975; 1.1 hours of work required in 2006…
In an earlier post Don writes:
Other than the style differences, the fact most noticeable from the contents of
this catalog’s 1,491 pages is what the catalog doesn’t contain. The Sears customer in 1975 found no CD players for either home or car; no DVD or
VHS players; no cell phones; no televisions with remote controls or
flat-screens; no personal computers or video games; no food processors; no
digital cameras or camcorders; no spandex clothing; no down comforters (only
comforters filled with polyester).
The past is another country. I once lived there but have no desire to return.
Why I never believed James Frey
I never believed James Frey because of the Economic Way of Thinking – I refer of course to Paul Heyne’s book and not just the method. In one of the chapters of the EWT, Heyne covers basic public choice. Business people are always lobbying the government to regulate their rivals and when they do so they always have a public-interest story to sell. Heyne, however, cautions skepticism. One of his examples, is about veterinarians who lobbied the government to crack down on unlicensed canine tooth cleaners because, the veterinarians argued, unlicensed cleaners might subject the dogs to unnecessary pain. Heyne replies (I quote from memory) "Now, if you were cleaning a dog’s teeth would you subject it to unnecessary pain?"
Frey’s story about undergoing two root canals without drugs was obviously false. Not because such pain cannot be endured but because no dentist is going to risk his fingers in the mouth of someone who hasn’t had an anesthetic.
Follow the Money
Where’s George? is a website that lets users track dollar bills. Scientists at the Max Planck institute have used the data from the website to develop an improved model of human movement that can be used to better predict the spread of infectious diseases. More here.
On the evolution of religion
Consider the following sayings from two prophets of different religions:
It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.
An honest merchant has a guaranteed place in paradise.
Now if you had to predict, which religion would you suspect would be more compatible with markets and modernity?
The first quote, of course, is from Jesus the second is a saying attributed to Muhammad.
My point is not to argue that Christianity or Islam are either more or less compatible with capitalism or liberal democracy. In my view all religions of reasonable age and numbers contain traditions and teachings compatible with modernity and all religions of reasonable age and numbers contain traditions and teachings incompatible with modernity. Call it the completeness theorem.
It’s how religions adapt and evolve to modernity that is important. Religions are constantly changing, emphasizing certain features, downplaying others, creating new interpretations. Given enough time, I believe that any religion will evolve towards compatability with modernity because it’s the memes that combine modernity and religion which will survive and prosper.
The problem is that Christianity has had hundreds of years to adapt itself to modernity while Islam has had modernity thrust upon it.
Fish don’t walk overnight and neither do religions. Nevertheless there are Islamic leaders who, under the pressure of current events, see the direction in which Islam must move and who are actively encouraging evolution in that direction. Dan Drezner, for example, points to this article on developments in Morocco:
Morocco’s
42-year-old King Mohammed VI has discovered religion as a means of
modernizing his society — and progress through piety seems to be the
order of the day. By granting new rights to women and strengthening
civil liberties, the ruler of this country of 30 million on Africa’s
northern edge, which is 99 percent Muslim, plans to democratize Morocco
through a tolerant interpretation of the Koran.Morocco’s
350-year-old dynasty, the world’s oldest next to the Japanese imperial
dynasty, claims to be directly descended from the prophet Mohammed. And
as "Amir al-Muminin," or leader of the faithful, the country’s ruler
enjoys absolute authority.The Conseil Supérieur des Oulémas, or
council of religious scholars, which the king installed a year and a
half ago, has been issuing fatwas on the most pressing questions of the
21st century — and, surprisingly, they’ve been well-received by both
young people and hardened Islamists. If the king’s reform plan
succeeds, Morocco could become a model of democratic Islam.
Addendum: For more on Islam, markets and democracy see the Minaret of Freedom Institute.
Comments are open.
The security and productivity of farms
Nick Szabo has a superb post about the interaction between historical agricultural productivity and security. Most obviously, security increases the incentive to invest so agricultural productivity will increase with security. But what determines security? Geographic factors are one possibility:
…two large islands which have been largely or entirely protected from
invasion for hundreds of years, Japan and Britain, also had among the
highest agricultural productivities per acre during that period as well
as the greatest cultivation of even marginal arable lands…. Contrariwise, this theory predicts agricultural productivity
will be lowest in unprotected continental regions. Indeed, interior
continental regions easily reached by horse tended to be given over to
much less productive nomadic grazing. Security constraints were
probably what prevented any sort of crop from being grown.
Security issues influence and can be influenced by a wide variety of other choices and institutions. Some crops will recover from a razing quicker than others, for example, so crop choice will be influenced by security. Primogeniture may have been an optimal institution to maintain economies of scale in land defense, as Adam Smith first discussed.
Read the whole thing there is a dissertation or two here.
Do you love cats?
Toxoplasma gondii is a favorite parasite of evolutionary biologists because it has an incredible property. The parasite lives in the guts of cats where it sheds eggs in cat feces that are often eaten by rats. Now how to get back from the rat to the cat? Amazingly, Toxoplasma gondii infects the brains of rats making them
change their behavior in a subtle way that increases the genetic
fitness of the parasite. Toxoplasma makes the infected rats less scared of cats and so more likely to be eaten!
Now here is the kicker. Toxoplasma gondii also infects a lot of humans.
Would I be a Good Dictator?
The train from Casablanca to Marrakech is packed, I stand at the window and look out at the land; the land is rich but the people are mostly poor (GNI per capita of around $4200 in PPP adjusted terms). If I were in charge would it be different? Would I make a good dictator? My good friend Bryan Caplan says yes! My good friend Tyler Cowen is not so sure. The question is not really about me, of course, the question is about what sorts of constraints are holding back poor countries. Is it constraints about ideas, political/social constraints or even deeper geographic constraints? Could one person at the top make a difference?
The great man theory of history, receives some interesting support in a paper just published in the QJE by Jones and Olken, Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II. Jones and Olken look at changes in economic growth around the time of the natural or accidental deaths of leaders and they find that leaders matter, especially, as one might expect, in dictatorships. A one standard deviation increase in leader quality leads to a huge increase in economic growth, an extra 1.5 percentage points a year.
It’s much easier to ruin a nation than build one, however, so the effect of leader quality on growth says less about how good a dictator I would be than about how bad a dictator were say Mao, Mugabe, and Amin, call it the great evil man theory of history.
Still, if you are a poor country eager for a better biography, email me and we can talk terms.
Economists at lunch
Today we auctioned off the rights to the leftovers. The winner basically paid the tip so all went home happy.
Bargaining in the Souk
Bshhal? (How much?), I say, pointing to an objet d’art.
He gives a figure.
La?! (No?!), in mock shock at the price he has quoted. Bezzaf! (Expensive!)
How much you pay?
I get out a small pad of paper and pen (invaluable in the souk) and write a much lower figure.
Now it is his turn to be "shocked," handmade, silver, he says launching into a spiel.
We bargain some more back and forth. The call to prayers starts in the background, he says, "listen, good sign."
I say, yes but for which one of us? He laughs. I am not budging much on the price so he tries to distract me with a less valuable piece.
C’est la ou rien, I reply. For some reason the use of English, Arabic and French is not confusing.
Then he says "you give me maximum price, top, price serioux."
La, I reply, you give me minimum price, price serioux.
He laughs. You professor?
Now, I am shocked. Yes, how did you know?
I smelt it, he says touching his nose. "Everywhere professors have good eye but no money."
I seize an unexpected advantage, na’am (yes) no money.
We bargain some more and come to a deal. I ask for my pen back. He says no, small gift, small gift, mon amis.
Twenty dirhams!, I reply.
Professor, you must be Berber.
I laugh. He keeps the pen.
Addendum: If you go, ask for mon amis Rashid at Zemouri Ahmed Belhaj in the Souk. Tell him that the Professor, day after Christmas, sent you. He says he will remember.
Random thoughts from Marrakesh
I see about as many women in Marrakesh in full scale (eye slit only) chadora as on a typical day on the campus of George Mason University. Tyler is correct; globalization makes every place increasingly different and all places increasingly similar. Of course, I have yet to see snake charmers in GMUs central square.
The dates and apricots from the street sellers are the best I have ever tasted. I could subsist on the dates, apricots, pistachios and the incredible orange juice alone.
I visited a harem today; alas the women were long gone or at least moved to the new palace.
The monkeys look sad.
As I am blogging I can hear the call to prayers in the background. Ancient and modern in one experience; how cool is that (insert exclamation point here).
In Marrakech
The streets of Marrakech run with blood today. It is Eid Al Adha, the feast of the sacrifice, to comemorate Ibraham’s (Abraham) willingness to obey God by sacrificing his son Ishmael (Ishmael/Isaac, who can say?). (If a booming voice told me to sacrifice my son, I’d tell him to go to hell. My failure to see the virtue in Abraham’s more faithful actions lets me reject three religions in one go. Convenient.) In anycase, God relented at the last minute and said sacrifice a ram instead. So today rams are being sacrificed all over town, the heads are then cooked in the streets over barbecues made from old bedsprings. It’s not to my taste but if I wanted things to my taste I would have gone to Starbucks.
Many thanks to all who gave tips earlier. I will write more later the kybrd here is hard to use.
Must have been a Monday
[Sir] Bob Geldof is angry about European farm subidies:
The CAP is a protection racket Al Capone would look at in
admiration and be proud of. Why do Europe’s farmers need protection?
Farmers are being paid to look after fields – they are just gardeners.
Some are growing stuff through subsidy that we don’t even need – then
we are paying more taxes to store the stuff we don’t need and more
taxes to destroy the stuff we don’t need. The CAP was responsible for
the butter mountains and the wine lakes. These surpluses are also being
shipped out to Africa and destroying local markets and economies. It is
not giving people a chance to get back on their feet. The CAP should be
scrapped and farmers should be open to competition. We’re not a free
market. There is no free trade. The CAP is anti-free trade….CAP is killing people. Africa is only eight miles down
the road from Europe and it is in conceivable that there is starvation
and poverty there while huge amounts are wasted across Europe on
farming subsidies. Europe gives 65 cents -just over half a euro -to the
average poverty-stricken African in aid in a year, whereas a surplus
cow in Europe gets 848 euros a year.
Hat tip to the Adam Smith Institute Blog.
With friends like these
There is a sort of an unwritten code in Washington, among the
underworld and the hustlers and these other guys, that I am their
friend.
Former Washington mayor and current council member Marion Barry after being robbed at gunpoint in his home.
Marrakech
Next week I am off to Marrakech. Why? Can any economist claim to understand markets who has not been? I will also spend a few days in Casablanca. Comments are open if you know a good gin joint.