Category: History

The Twelve

Neil Armstrong, first moon walker, died yesterday.

In total, there have been twelve. Armstrong who was first, Peter Conrad who was 3rd, Alan Shepard who was 5th and James Irwin who was 8th, are gone, leaving just eight. Just eight of 7 billion. Alan Shepard was the oldest, he was born in 1923, the others were all born in the 1930s at a time when Orville Wright still lived. The youngest, Charles Duke, will be 77 this year.

Could we soon have an age where all the moon walkers are gone? Will children then wonder whether it happened at all?

From Neil Armstrong

I fully expected that, by the end of the century, we would have achieved substantially more than we actually did.

And this:

I guess we all like to be recognized not for one piece of fireworks, but for the ledger of our daily work.

And finally:

I was elated, ecstatic and extremely surprised that we were successful.

There are more Armstrong quotations here.

In defense of the Wittfogel thesis

There is a new paper (pdf), “Irrigation and Autocracy,” by Jeanet Sinding Bentzen, Nicolai Kaarsen, and Asger Moll Wingender.  Here is the abstract:

We show that societies with a history of irrigation-based agriculture have been less likely to adopt democracy than societies with a history of rainfed agriculture. Rather than actual irrigation, the empirical analysis is based on how much irrigation potentially can increase yields. Irrigation potential is derived from a range of exogenous geographic factors, and reverse causality is therefore ruled out. Our results hold both at the cross-country level, and at the subnational level in premodern societies surveyed by ethnographers.

On the Origin of Specie

An article in The Economist (from which I have nabbed the title of this post) argues that money, particularly coins, had to have “developed not as a private-sector attempt to minimise the costs of trading, but as a government operation.” In fact, there are many examples of private coinage. In an earlier post on George Selgin’s excellent book Good Money I wrote about private coinage in Britain:

At the dawn of the industrial revolution as workers left the fields and moved to industrial employment the demand for a means of payment increased dramatically. Workers, once paid in kind, needed to be paid in a medium they could use to buy the necessities of life. Small-tender bank notes, however, were illegal and in Great Britain the production of coin was monopolized by the Royal Mint which failed to provide enough high quality coin to meet the demands of workers and business.

The Royal Mint had neither the will nor the technology to meet demand. In a story reminiscent of the Soviet nail factory one historian explained the incentives of the Royal Mint:

The public coiner, the Royal Mint, was charged with providing a stipulated amount of coinage each year rather than a stipulated number of coins. It did not take the eighteenth-century equivalent of rocket science to figure out that it was far easier to strike, say, a thousand golden guineas than 504,000 copper halfpence (24 x 21 x 1,000). The less-than-overworked denizens of Tower Hill cheered the discovery… But even had the Royal Mint been more co-operative, more inclined to rise to the challenge presented by the new wage earners, it would have been hard-put to assist. It still relied on antiquated machinery inherited from an earlier epoch….

The private sector responded, if the public sector would not.

To meet this shortage, Birmingham button makers started to coin tokens which circulated widely as money. Counterfeits and forgeries were common, however. Frustrated with the shortage of good money, Matthew Boulton, James Watt’s business partner, hit on the idea of using Watt’s steam engine to create steam presses. The new presses could apply more force thereby creating precise edging that would be difficult to forge or clip and they could do so on a mass scale. You can read the fascinating story in Selgin’s Good Money but suffice it to say that Boulton was eventually successful in producing the best coinage the world had ever seen not only for Great Britain but also for India, Singapore, Bermuda and elsewhere. Nor was Boulton’s the only example of private coinage. See Selgin’s post at Free Banking for U.S., Japanese and other examples.

Here are some of the coins from Boulton’s Soho Mint.

*Restless Empire*

The author is Odd Arne Westad and the subtitle is China and the World Since 1750.  Excerpt:

…the Chinese on Cuba joined others in rebellion.  Two thousand fought in the Cuban forces in the first war of independence in the 1870s.  Some of the Chinese soldiers must have had battle experience, probably from the Taiping Rebellion, and they played a substantial role in the struggle for Cuban freedom up to 1902.  A monument to the fallen Chinese in Havana has the following inscription: “There was not one Cuban Chinese deserter, not one Cuban Chinese traitor.”

I found this to be an excellent book and a very good starting place for unraveling the current foreign policy crises in Asia. It does a very good job explaining the sore spots from the past.

As you may know, one of my views is that most people underrate the chance of a (non-trivial) war in Asia in the next twenty years.  I regard this chance as at least p = .05, and I do not think it is priced into securities markets at nearly that high a level.  Historically, wars are not always easily predicted in advance.  They tend to be correlated with the rise of major powers and with regional disruptions.  In many countries nationalism and regional rivalries run rampant.  It is not obvious to me that the United States is in a position to hold the whole region together.

In any case, this book will make my “one of the best of the year” list.

Jeff Sachs reviews Acemoglu and Robinson

As you might expect, he stresses geography rather than institutions:

In places where production is expensive because of an inhospitable climate, unfavorable topography, low population densities, or a lack of proximity to global markets, many technologies from abroad will not arrive quickly through foreign investments or outsourcing. Compare Bolivia and Vietnam in the 1990s, both places I experienced firsthand as an economic adviser. Bolivians enjoyed greater political and civil rights than the Vietnamese did, as measured by Freedom House, yet Bolivia’s economy grew slowly whereas Vietnam’s attracted foreign investment like a magnet. It is easy to see why: Bolivia is a landlocked mountainous country with much of its territory lying higher than 10,000 feet above sea level, whereas Vietnam has a vast coastline with deep-water ports conveniently located near Asia’s booming industrial economies. Vietnam, not Bolivia, was the desirable place to assemble television sets and consumer appliances for Japanese and South Korean companies.

The review is interesting throughout, though I would stress the old saying: “As usual, the truth lies somewhere in between.”

When was it obvious our recovery would be so slow? (questions that are rarely asked)

John Cochrane presents a good point:

But we’ve heard the defense over and over again: “recoveries are always slower after financial crises.”  Most recently (this is what set me off today) in the Washington Times,

Many economists say the agonizing recovery from the Great Recession…is the predictable consequence of a housing market collapse and a grave financial crisis. … any recovery was destined to be a slog.

“A housing collapse is very different from a stock market bubble and crash,” said Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Diamond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “It affects so many people. It only corrects very slowly.”This argument has been batted back and forth, but a new angle occurred to me: If it was so obvious that this recovery would be slow, then the Administration’s forecasts should have reflected it.  Were they saying at the time, “normally, the economy bounces back quickly after deep recessions, but it’s destined to be slow this time, because recoveries from housing “bubbles” and financial crises are always slow?”

No, as it turns out…

You will find further background here.  That said, my read on this is quite different than Cochrane’s.  He blames post-crash policy, whereas I blame (mostly) “The Great Stagnation.”

*The Park Chung Hee Era*

That is a book from last year, edited by Byung-Kook Kim and Ezra F. Vogel, which somehow escaped the notice of much of the broader world.  Maybe because it is a collection, as we all know that most edited collections are mediocre.  This one is superb, as it offers a very detailed and also fairly comprehensive look at the seminal years for South Korean economic growth.  Two-thirds of the essays are excellent and the others are at least pretty good.  My favorite was the Paul Hutchcroft comparison between the economic development of South Korea and the Philippines.  Not everyone will want 650 pp. on economic (and other) policy under South Korean autocracy, but if you do this is the book for you.  I didn’t even mind paying $47.50 for it.

What is the most underrated innovation of the last one hundred years?

That was another question I was asked.

I find it difficult to compare the “ratings” of early 20th century innovations to the ratings of innovations today, since it is often different audiences doing the admiring, or lack thereof.

For the most underrated innovations of the last one hundred years I might pick the insights of Alan Turing, various developments in electrical engineering including better transformers, or the nitrogen-fertilizer connection, noting that in some quarters there is already plenty of recognition for each of these, Turing in particular.  But still not enough!

As for contemporary innovations, I see an underrated one as Amazon’s warehousing and shipping practices.  It will mean the death of much of retail and transform our suburban physical spaces into something quite…????.   Into something, in any case.  I am a social networking optimist, and think it has largely beneficial effects on social mores, but I also see it as having peaked at a near-saturation point.

Here is a good video on “Amazon yesterday shipping.”

1964 predictions about the year 2000

From The New York Times Magazine, excellent visuals and excerpts.  As for how the world would look, from today’s vantage point:

It’s surprisingly still more like 1900 out there.

Housemaids, waitresses, and nurses will cease to exist as professions.  Fortunately:

By then, the last traces of racial and religious discrimination will have disappeared.

Crime in Europe and the U.S.

Has there been a “reversal of fortune”?  Paolo Buonanno, Francesco Drago, Roberto Galbiati, and Giulio Zanella step into these treacherous waters with a new paper (pdf):

Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the “reversal of misfortunes”. We investigate what accounts for the reversal by studying the causal impact of demographic changes, incarceration, abortion, unemployment and immigration on crime. For this we use time series data (1970-2008) from seven European countries and the U.S. We find that the demographic structure of the population and the incarceration rate are important determinants of crime. Our results suggest that a tougher incarceration policy may be an effective way to contrast crime in Europe. Our analysis does not provide information on how incarceration policy should be made tougher nor does it provide an answer to the question whether a such a policy would also be efficient from a cost-benefit point of view. We leave this to future research.

I would stress that there are numerous controversial claims in this paper.  (I also personally believe that the heavy U.S. reliance on incarceration is morally problematic.)  Nonetheless we are committed to bringing you thought-provoking material and so there you go.

For the pointer I thank Noah Smith, who should not be construed as necessarily endorsing any of these results.

More data on survival during maritime disasters

From Mikael Elinder and Oscar Erixson (pdf, final PNAS gated version here):

It’s a widespread notion that women and children are saved first in maritime disasters. The systematic evidence of this comes primarily from the sinking of RMS Titanic. By analyzing individual level data from MS Estonia – one of the largest maritime disaster in the Northern hemisphere since World War II – a different picture emerges. Estonia sunk in the Baltic Sea with 137 survivors and 852 casualties. Despite equal gender rates on Estonia, 111 men, but only 26 women survived. This striking observation, as well as econometric analyses of survival probabilities, shows that the behavior among passengers and crew was clearly inconsistent with the norm that women should be saved before men. We show that the survival patterns from several maritime disasters, including Titanic, can be explained by the behavior of the captain. Women have a survival advantage only when the captain orders that women should be given priority and threatens disobedience with violence. Otherwise women will have lower survival chances.