Category: Television
Is there a great stagnation in action movies?
Chris MacDonald asks me:
Should we expect stagnation, or continued improvement, in the action film genre? The new Bond flick, Skyfall, is getting rave reviews, with some calling it the best Bond film ever. Hyperbole aside, it is indeed very good. Should we expect the next Bond film to be less good (regression to the mean) or is this one of the fields — like baseball management — where mechanisms exist to facilitate further improvement on a fairly reliable basis?
I was less crazy about Skyfall (“M, pull out your cell phone and call for aid!”) but that’s neither here nor there.
As for the stagnation issue, there are two main developments. The first is a resurrection of sorts, namely 3-D, which is a very real gain, but in my view it is a significant plus for fewer than ten movies, most notably Avatar.
CGI is a gain for some movies (e.g, Troy, Life of Pi, Lord of the Rings), though it often makes action scenes less visceral and more distant.
The main drawback for Hollywood action movies has been globalization, which leads to too many explosions and not enough subtle dialogue and characterization. The other main drawback has been high marketing costs, which encourages tent pole franchises with prior name recognition with a core audience. That often means too much clunky plot exposition, too many comic book characters, too great a need to heed the wishes of the hard core audience base, and too few surprises about the characters. There is one very good Spiderman movie but overall I call this trend a negative.
Still, there has been major progress in action movies, at least if we are willing to accept a particular semantic switch. I much prefer Goldfinger to the newer Bond movies, but I also don’t think of it as an action movie. It doesn’t have much action, although I don’t think people at the time felt that way. By my possibly distorted standards, the Bond movies start being action movies only with Diamonds are Forever.
King Solomon’s Mines is a very good movie, under-watched these days, as is Thief of Baghdad. Nonetheless prior to the 1970s I think of the action genre as virtually non-existent. I was stunned when I first (1981) saw the opening scene of Raiders of the Lost Ark, though these days it isn’t especially impressive, just well-executed.
One possibility is that each generation thinks it is the first to have had action movies.
To sum up, for all of the contemporary excess, we have been living in a Golden Age of Action Movies. Even a scorned movie such as Lara Croft is pretty awesome on the big screen. And Asian action movies have reached their peaks only in the last twenty years, including early John Woo. Call that the plus side of the globalization equation.
That said, a few impressive 3-D movies aside, the last five years have brought more negatives than positives, a’la “Transformers” and various overinflated, noisy, character-stuffed, and self-important Hollywood monstrosities. We’ll get over it, but in reality stagnation is something we might have wished for instead.
Here is one list of the greatest action movies of all time. Not many pre-70s movies can stand up to these for action.
The next trend will be RCT-like audience studies to find out exactly which action tricks, with which timings, thrill us and which do not. Great directors have an intuitive sense for this but it could be made much more scientific.
What is the world’s most valuable media property?
Arguably it is ESPN, which is now valued at about $40 billion:
The reality is that there is not another media property in the world worth as much as ESPN because no media asset delivering content generates close to as much money. Wunderlich pegs the value of the Disney Channel, which is one of the most valuable channels and has the third highest affiliate fees, at $10 billion. It is even uglier in print. The current market value of the New York Times is $1.3 billion. The only media companies in the world worth more than $40 billion are News Corp. ($58 billion) and Comcast ($96 billion). The value of News Corp. is spread out among dozens of media assets, while Comcast derives most of its value from being a cable provider.
Conor Friedersdorf nails it
Before rank-and-file conservatives ask, “What went wrong?”, they should ask themselves a question every bit as important: “Why were we the last to realize that things were going wrong for us?”
Barack Obama just trounced a Republican opponent for the second time. But unlike 4 years ago, when most conservatives saw it coming, Tuesday’s result was, for them, an unpleasant surprise.
Here is a key sentence:
They were operating at a self-imposed information disadvantage.
Read the whole thing. They should elevate him to something too. And as Matt Lewis said on Twitter:
Conservative media outlets promote too many voices who mislead the base AND turnoff independents. Good for ratings & clicks/bad for America.
Superman joins Blogosphere
According to GeekoSystem:
Clark Kent is quitting his job as a reporter for the Daily Planet, because he has too much journalistic integrity to work there any more. However, everybody has to make a living, even superheroes, and so, Superman will be running his own blog.
Hit tip: Maxwell.
Me on Canadian TV with Steve Paikin
On how politics works, for whom I am voting, and why we should be (somewhat) optimistic about the ending of the great stagnation. You can watch it here.
Music Break
The X Factor isn’t doing well in the ratings but this was Xcellent.
http://youtu.be/iAJyoiQEQco
Racism by Political Party
It is undeniably the case that racist Americans are almost entirely in one political coalition and not the other.
Chris Hayes, Up w/ Chris Hayes, August 18, 2012.
Here is data asking whites the question Do you Favor Laws Against Interracial Marriage (this is from 2002, the latest year available for this question).
| Favor Laws Against Interracial Marriage | |||||
| Democrat | Ind | Repub | Other | TOTAL | |
| YES | 11.9 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 5 | 10.8 |
| NO | 88.1 | 90.4 | 88.5 | 95 | 89.2 |
Here is data asking whites whether they agree with the sentiment that Blacks Shouldn’t be Pushy.
| Blacks Shouldn’t Be Pushy | |||
| Democrat | Ind | Republican | |
| AGREE STRONGLY | 14.9 | 14.2 | 15.8 |
| AGREE SLIGHTLY | 20.4 | 20.6 | 26.6 |
| DISAGREE SLIGHTLY | 30.2 | 28 | 25.9 |
| DISAGREE STRONGLY | 34.5 | 37.2 | 31.7 |
Finally from 2008 here is data asking whites whether they would vote for a black for President. (Row: racpres, column partyid, filter: race(1) year(2008)).
| Would Vote for Black President | |||||
| STRONG DEMOCRAT | NOT STR DEMOCRAT | NOT STR REPUBLICAN | STRONG REPUBLICAN | ||
| YES | 92.4 | 94 | 93.9 | 94.7 | |
| No | 7.6 | 6 | 6.1 | 5.3 | |
It is true that there are more differences across party lines on policy questions such as on affirmative action, again with a mix in both parties but with more Republicans than Democrats opposing. I don’t consider these types of policy preferences to be grounds for calling someone a racist, however.
It is undeniable that some Americans are racist but racists split about evenly across the parties. No party has a monopoly on racists.
Addendum: John Sides, Reihan Salam and Razib Khan offer further comment.
One of the best nature videos I have seen
Killer whales hunt a seal, from the superb series Frozen Planet.
Tabarrok on the Alyona Show (“Debtors’ Prisons”)
I believe it was Brad DeLong who once said that people who can look into the camera and emote as if they are talking to a person will one day rule the world. It’s a very unnatural thing but ironically it makes you look much more natural on television (when you look at the person it looks as if you are not looking the viewer in the eye and worst of all is the shifty-eyed switch between looking at the camera and the person or their image which makes you look untrustworthy). I am getting the knack but still have other tics to work on.
Interview below, here is my original post.
http://youtu.be/OkEp2H05WaI
*Bad Religion*
The author is Ross Douthat and the subtitle is How We Became a Nation of Heretics. It is a very good and very serious book arguing that America needs better religious thinking and practice, excerpt:
The entire media-entertainment complex, meanwhile, was almost shamelessly pro-Catholic. If a stranger to American life had only the movies, television, and popular journalism from which to draw inferences, he probably would have concluded that midcentury America was a Catholic-majority country — its military populated by the sturdy Irishmen of The Fighting 69th (1948) and The Fighting Sullivans (1944); its children educated and its orphans rescued by the heroic priests and nuns celebrated in Boys Town (1938), The Bells of Saint Mary’s (1945), and Fighting Father Dunne (1948); its civic life dominated by urban potentates like Francis Cardinal Spellman of New York and Denis Dougherty of Philadelphia; its everyday life infused with Catholic kitsch, from the 1950s hit single “Our Lady of Fatima” to the “win one for the Gipper” cult of Notre Dame football.
My main question is what could have become of most organized religion in an era of newly found television penetration — a competing source of ideas about right and wrong — and the birth control pill and sexual liberation of women? Not to mention gay rights. The recent evolution of American religion may not be optimal, but it is endogenous to some fairly fundamental forces. Non-religious thinking seems to offer especially high returns to successful people these days, and while American religion certainly has survived that impact (unlike in the UK?), what is left will seem quite alienating to much of the intelligentsia, Ross included.
For most mainstream religions, for most urban and suburban intellectuals circa 2012, it is hard to live a religiously observant life during the ages of say 17-25. American religion is left with late convert intellectuals and proponents of various enthusiasms, all filtered through the lens of America’s rural-tinged mass culture. Where is the indigenous and recent highbrow Christian culture of the United States?
Ross’s close comes off as voluntarist (“That quest begins with a single step…”), but in an economic model which change might nudge the United States back toward a more intellectual Christianity? Your suggestions are welcome.
Economic themes in *Girls*, the new HBO show
The comic timing is very good, and the show also explains:
1. Why the “Rotten Kid theorem” fails and why theories of strategic bequest are unlikely to work,
2. The longer-term consequences of a slow job market for youth, and
3. What life is like when your IQ is high but the shadow value of your labor is low.
The first episode is now on YouTube.
Has baseball become an inferior good?
From John D. Burger and Stephen J.K. Walters:
World Series telecasts are now an inferior good. Income and the time cost of consumption interact so that a ten percent income increase reduces viewership by 1.8 million households. Increased availability of substitutes reduces ratings but increased drama improves them.
What does that say about the future of the sport? About the future of television?
For the pointer I thank Kevin Lewis.
The economics of TV pundit panels
@ModeledBehavior tweets:
Who’ll write “the economics of CNNs extremely, extremely ****ing banal pundit panel”. Surely, there must be a reason for it?
Except he spelt out the entire word.
The goal is to keep people on the same channel, by whatever means possible. The true end of the debate event means the TV will be turned off or the channel switched. It’s not like the old days when on Saturday night the people who wanted to see “Mary Tyler Moore Show” then wanted to watch Bob Newhart afterwards. There is no real sequel to these “debates,” or at least no appropriate sequel which can be enacted with the aid of a television.
So they will do everything possible to stretch out the event. Furthermore, the viewers actually want to talk to each other about the debates, so the continuation should be something which does not command too much viewer attention. No Evil Knievel. The panel is a signal of “now is the focal time to make fun of these guys with the other people on your sofa,” don’t stop, keep up the jokes guys, and the panel members, perhaps unintentionally, try to stretch out that period of your witty mockery for as long as possible. Which isn’t that long, but hey they have to try.
Why is NBA TV viewership up so much?
The first 325 games of this NBA season averaged attendance of 17,094. That’s better than 89 percent of capacity, and a hair better than the first 325 games of last season, which averaged 17,057.
But almost every other indicator blows those in-arena numbers away. Viewership is going a bit nuts:
- ABC has had just three games, so it’s hard to say anything conclusive, but the audience is up five percent compared to a year ago.
- ESPN viewership is up 23 percent.
- TNT viewership is up 50 percent.
- NBA TV viewership is up an insane 66 percent.
- NBA on regional cable sports networks are up 12 percent.
- Local over-the-airwaves broadcasts are up 36 percent.
NBA TV is particularly interesting. Five of the channel’s ten most viewed games ever have been this season, with January’s Lakers-Clippers game the most viewed game in network history.
That is from Henry Abbott, here is more. Many people thought the strike would hurt fan interest, but apparently not. (It did hurt my interest, but not out of any grudge; I tuned into a few early games and found them unspeakably bad in terms of quality. By now most players seem to be in shape, although blowouts and lopsided low scores remain too common. I believe the spread of the “team coordination” variable has increased.) Is this a behavioral effect? Like taking the peanuts away and making people crave them more?
Do more frequent games, in response to the strike-shortened season, spur a greater “habit formation” demand? Do more frequent games imply that a major star is playing on TV virtually every night? That is my hypothesis. How will the NBA respond?
By the way, I have a longstanding custom of predicting, or rather failing to predict, the NBA championship winner each year. This year I say it is wide open, yet to be determined, and ask me again after the trade deadline. MLE is Miami, but a well-coordinated lesser team could knock them off, especially if they remain injury-prone.
Sherlock Holmes v. Sherlock
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is ok so long as you are expecting a comic book adventure along the lines of Captain America or Iron Man (natch) and not a detective-mystery ala Sherlock Holmes. A smart character requires smart writers and in this movie the producers saved the money for special effects.
In contrast, the British TV series Sherlock is a must see. Sherlock reboots Holmes into our world. Yet despite advancing in time some 130 years when Sherlock first meets Watson he says, exactly as in the original, “You have been in Afghanistan, I perceive.” A shiver ran down my spine.
Sherlock is fast-paced but clever. It’s written by two Doctor Who vets who invest Holmes with wit, originality and intellect, rather than the quasi-magical powers found in the aforementioned movie. The chemistry between Holmes and Watson is clear – one understands in this version what is lacking in many others, these two need each other.
The first season has only 3, 90 minute, episodes but a second season just ran in Britain and I expect it will soon be available in the U.S.