Category: Web/Tech

“Can AI help us find God?”

That is the title of my latest Free Press piece.  Here is one excerpt:

Religious knowledge has become easy to access with as much detail as you might wish. You can learn about Vatican II or the Talmud ad infinitum. But it may mean something different to practitioners when it does not come from another human. An AI can write a sermon; in fact, if some confessional accounts can be believed, a majority of sermons are now at least co-authored with AI. But can it deliver that sermon and move worshippers to go out and do good works? With where things stand now, I doubt it.

One possible scenario is that our religions, at least as we experience them in person, become more charismatic, more heart-pumping, and more thrilling. We will want more and more of the uniquely human element, and to hold the attention of their audiences, churches will provide it. If so, AI will be riding a trend that we already see in the U.S., as older mainline denominations have ceded ground to evangelical ones.

That will not please everyone, and those looking for “information” from their religions may turn away from collective worship and spend more time with AI. We may be entering a “barbells” world where religious experience is either a) much more solo, but with AIs, or b) more immediate and ecstatic, with other human beings.

And this:

The ancient worlds of Greece and Rome had plenty of oracles, as did late antique Christianity, so an oracle-rich religious era is hardly impossible. It does not require the AIs to invent a new belief system out of whole cloth, but just to slowly morph from being good advisers into holding more spiritual significance for us.

There are further points at the link.

Dean Ball speaks

I know I rail a lot about all the flavors of AI copium but I do empathize.

A few companies are making machines smarter in most ways than humans, and they are going to succeed. The cope is byproduct of an especially immature grieving stage, but all of us are early in our grief.

Link here.  You can understand so much of the media these days, or for that matter MR comments, if you keep this simple observation in mind.  It is essential for understanding the words around you, and one’s reactions also reveal at least one part of the true inner self.  I have never seen the Western world in this position before, so yes it is difficult to believe and internalize.  But believe and internalize it you must.

Politics is another reason why some people are reluctant to admit this reality.  Moving forward, the two biggest questions are likely to be “how do we deal with AI?”, and also some rather difficult to analyze issues surrounding major international conflicts.  A lot of the rest will seem trivial, and so much of today’s partisan puffery will not age well, even if a person is correct on the issues they are emphasizing.  The two biggest and most important questions do not fit into standard ideological categories.  Yes, the Guelphs vs. the Ghibellines really did matter…until it did not.

Seb Krier

I think this is spot on. The most useful work in the coming years will be about leveraging AI to help improve and reform liberal democracy, the rule of law, separation of powers, free speech, coordination, and constitutional safeguards.

One heuristic I have for AI is: if somone can instantiate their preference or desire really easily, if principal agent problems are materially reduced, if you can no longer rely on inefficiency or bloat as indirect hedge – then the ‘rules of the game’ matter more than ever.

These are all very difficult questions with or without AI. And I’m concerned with two things in particular: first, the easy appeal of anti-elite populism – people who just think ‘well let’s have vetocracy everywhere, let’s leverage the emotions of the masses for short term gain’.

And second, the appeal of scheme-y behaviour – instrumental convergence for political operators. This is harder to pin down, but basically a variant of “I want goal X, so anything that gets me closer to this goal is good” – what leads to all sorts of bad policy and unsavoury alliances.

And instead of trying to 4D chess it or try to recreate politics from first principles, I think technologists should actively enage with experts in all sorts of discplines: constitutional scholars, public choice economists, game theorists etc. Converesely, many of these experts should engage with technologists more instead of coping with obsolete op-eds about how AI is fake or something.

Lastly, improved AI capabilities means you can now use these systems for more things than you could have before. I couldn’t write software a year ago and now I can create a viable app in a day. This dynamic will continue, and will reward people who are agentic and creative.

Are you a local councillor? Well now you have 1000 agents at your disposal – what can you now that that was otherwise unthinkable? Are you someone who lives in their district? Now you have even better tools to hold them to account. Are you an academic? Great, now consider how the many bylaws, rules, structures, institutions, incentives are messing up incentives and progress, what should be improved, and how to get streamlined coordination rather than automated obstruction.

Here is the link.  Here is the related Dean Ball tweet.

Podcast with Salvador Duarte

Salvador is 17, and is an EV winner from Portugal.  Here is the transcript.  Here is the list of discussed topics:

0:00 – We’re discovering talent quicker than ever 5:14 – Being in San Francisco is more important than ever 8:01 – There is such a thing like a winning organization 11:43 – Talent and conformity on startup and big businesses 19:17 – Giving money to poor people vs talented people 22:18 – EA is fragmenting 25:44 – Longtermism and existential risks 33:24 – Religious conformity is weaker than secular conformity 36:38 – GMU Econ professors religious beliefs 39:34 – The west would be better off with more religion 43:05 – What makes you a philosopher 45:25 – CEOs are becoming more generalists 49:06 – Traveling and eating 53:25 – Technology drives the growth of government? 56:08 – Blogging and writing 58:18 – Takes on @Aella_Girl, @slatestarcodex, @Noahpinion, @mattyglesias, , @tszzl, @razibkhan@RichardHanania@SamoBurja@TheZvi and more 1:02:51 – The future of Portugal 1:06:27 – New aesthetics program with @patrickc.

Self-recommending, here is Salvador’s podcast and Substack more generally.

“Tyler Cowen’s AI campus”

That is a short essay by Arnold Kling.  Excerpt:

Tyler’s Vision

As a student, you work with a mentor. At the beginning of each term, you and your mentor decide which courses you will take. If there are other students on campus taking them, great. If not, maybe you can take them with students at other schools, meeting remotely.

For each course, an AI can design the syllabus. Tyler gave an example of a syllabus generated by ChatGPT for a course on Tudor England. If you can find a qualified teacher for that course, great. If not, you could try learning it from ChatGPT, which would provide lessons, conversations, and learning assessments (tests).

Tyler thinks that 1/3 of higher ed right now should consist of teaching students how to work with AI. I do that by assigning a vibe-coding project, and by encouraging “vibe reading” and “vibe writing.”

The reason for proposing such a high proportion of effort to learning to work with AI is because we are in a transition period, where the capabilities of AI are changing rapidly. Once capabilities settle down, best practices will become established, and knowledge of how to use AI will be ingrained. For now, it is very hard to keep up.

It is possible, of course, that Tyler and I could be wrong. It could be that the best approach for higher ed is to keep students as far from AI as one can. I can respect someone who favors an anti-AI approach.

But I am disturbed by the lack of humility that often accompanies the anti-AI position in higher education. I have difficulty comprehending how faculty, at UATX and elsewhere, can express their anti-AI views with such vehemence and overconfidence. They come across to me like dinosaurs muttering that the meteor is not going to matter to them.

I believe the talk will be put online, but a few extra points here.

First, the one-third time spent learning how to use AI is not at the expense of studying other topics.  You might for instance learn how to use AI to better understand Homer’s Odyssey.  Or whatever.

Second, I remain a strong believer in spending many hours requiring the students to write (and thus think) without AI.  Given the properties of statistical sampling, the anti-cheating solution here requires that only a small percentage of writing hours be spent locked in a room without AI.

Third, for a small school, which of course includes U. Austin, so often the choice is not “AI education vs. non-AI education,” rather “AI education vs. the class not being offered at all.”

Why should not a school experiment with two to three percent of its credits being AI offerings in this or other related manners?  Then see how students respond.

Claims about AI and science

You should take these as quite context-specific numbers rather than as absolutes, nonetheless this is interesting:

Scientists who engage in AI-augmented research publish 3.02 times more papers, receive 4.84 times more citations and become research project leaders 1.37 years earlier than those who do not. By contrast, AI adoption shrinks the collective volume of scientific topics studied by 4.63% and decreases scientists’ engagement with one another by 22%.

Here is the full Nature piece by Qianyue Hao, Fengli Xu, Yong Li, and James Evans.  The end sentence of course does not have to be a negative.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

A new economic model of AI and automation

Here is but one part of the results:

Given complementarity between the two sectors, the marginal returns to intelligence saturate, no matter how fast AI scales. Because the price of AI capital is falling much faster than that of physical capital, intelligence tasks are automated first, pushing human labor toward the physical sector. The impact of automation on wages is theoretically ambiguous and can be non-monotonic in the degree of automation. A necessary condition for automation to decrease wages is that the share of employment in the intelligence sector decreases; this condition is not sufficient because automation can raise output enough to offset negative reallocation effects. In our baseline simulation, wages increase and then decrease with automation.

That is from Konrad Kording and Ioana Elena Marinescu of the University of Pennsylvania.  I am very glad to see ongoing progress in this area.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

Claims about AI productivity improvements

This paper derives “Scaling Laws for Economic Impacts”- empirical relationships between the training compute of Large Language Models (LLMs) and professional productivity. In a preregistered experiment, over 500 consultants, data analysts, and managers completed professional tasks using one of 13 LLMs. We find that each year of model progress reduced task time by 8%, with 56% of gains driven by increased compute and 44% by algorithmic progress. However, productivity gains were significantly larger for non-agentic analytical tasks compared to agentic workflows requiring tool use. These findings suggest continued model scaling could boost U.S. productivity by approximately 20% over the next decade.

That is from Ali Merali of Yale University.

Those new service sector jobs

Basketball Expert (Fans, Journalist, Commentator, etc.)

Role Overview

We’re looking for Basketball experts — avid fans, sports journalists, commentators, and former or semi-professional players — to evaluate basketball games. You’ll watch basketball games and answer questions in real time assessing the quality, depth, and accuracy of AI insights, helping us refine our AI’s basketball reasoning, storytelling, and strategic understanding.

Key Responsibilities

  • Game Evaluation: Watch basketball games and review AI-generated play-by-play commentary and post-game analysis.

  • Performance Scoring: Rate the accuracy, insight, and entertainment value of AI sports coverage.

  • Context & Understanding: Assess the AI’s grasp of player performance, game flow, and strategic decisions.

  • Error Detection: Identify factual mistakes, poor interpretations, or stylistic inconsistencies.

  • Feedback Reporting: Provide clear written feedback highlighting strengths, weaknesses, and improvement opportunities.

  • Collaboration: Work with analysts and developers to enhance the AI’s basketball-specific reasoning and realism.

From Mercor, pays $45 to $70 an hour.  For background on Mercor, see my very recent CWT with Brendan Foody.  Via Mike Rosenwald, wonderful NYT obituary from him here.

AI, labor markets, and wages

There is a new and optimistic paper by Lukas Althoff and Hugo Reichardt:

Artificial intelligence is changing which tasks workers do and how they do them. Predicting its labor market consequences requires understanding how technical change affects workers’ productivity across tasks, how workers adapt by changing occupations and acquiring new skills, and how wages adjust in general equilibrium. We introduce a dynamic task-based model in which workers accumulate multidimensional skills that shape their comparative advantage and, in turn, their occupational choices. We then develop an estimation strategy that recovers (i) the mapping from skills to task-specific productivity, (ii) the law of motion for skill accumulation, and (iii) the determinants of occupational choice. We use the quantified model to study generative AI’s impact via augmentation, automation, and a third and new channel—simplification—which captures how technologies change the skills needed to perform tasks. Our key finding is that AI substantially reduces wage inequality while raising average wages by 21 percent. AI’s equalizing effect is fully driven by simplification, enabling workers across skill levels to compete for the same jobs. We show that the model’s predictions line up with recent labor market data.

Via Kris Gulati.

My Microsoft podcast on AI

Here is the link, here is part of their description:

Economist and public thinker Tyler Cowen joins host Molly Wood to explore why AI adoption is so challenging for many employees, organizations, and educational institutions. As he puts it,”This may sound counterintuitive, but under a lot of scenarios, the more unhappy people are, the better we’re doing, because that means a lot of change.”

In passing I will point out that the AI pessimism that started around 2023, with the release of GPT-4, is looking worse and worse.  I am not talking about “the end of the world” views, rather “the stochastic parrot” critiques and the like.  Dustbin of history, etc.

My excellent Conversation with Brendan Foody

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

At 22, Brendan Foody is both the youngest Conversations with Tyler guest ever and the youngest unicorn founder on record. His company Mercor hires the experts who train frontier AI models—from poets grading verse to economists building evaluation frameworks—and has become one of the fastest-growing startups in history.

Tyler and Brendan discuss why Mercor pays poets $150 an hour, why AI labs need rubrics more than raw text, whether we should enshrine the aesthetic standards of past eras rather than current ones, how quickly models are improving at economically valuable tasks, how long until AI can stump Cass Sunstein, the coming shift toward knowledge workers building RL environments instead of doing repetitive analysis, how to interview without falling for vibes, why nepotism might make a comeback as AI optimizes everyone’s cover letters, scaling the Thiel Fellowship 100,000X, what his 8th-grade donut empire taught him about driving out competition, the link between dyslexia and entrepreneurship, dining out and dating in San Francisco, Mercor’s next steps, and more.

And an excerpt:

COWEN: Now, I saw an ad online not too long ago from Mercor, and it said $150 an hour for a poet. Why would you pay a poet $150 an hour?

FOODY: That’s a phenomenal place to start. For background on what the company does — we hire all of the experts that teach the leading AI models. When one of the AI labs wants to teach their models how to be better at poetry, we’ll find some of the best poets in the world that can help to measure success via creating evals and examples of how the model should behave.

One of the reasons that we’re able to pay so well to attract the best talent is that when we have these phenomenal poets that teach the models how to do things once, they’re then able to apply those skills and that knowledge across billions of users, hence allowing us to pay $150 an hour for some of the best poets in the world.

COWEN: The poets grade the poetry of the models or they grade the writing? What is it they’re grading?

FOODY: It could be some combination depending on the project. An example might be similar to how a professor in English class would create a rubric to grade an essay or a poem that they might have for the students. We could have a poet that creates a rubric to grade how well is the model creating whatever poetry you would like, and a response that would be desirable to a given user.

COWEN: How do you know when you have a good poet, or a great poet?

FOODY: That’s so much of the challenge of it, especially with these very subjective domains in the liberal arts. So much of it is this question of taste, where you want some degree of consensus of different exceptional people believing that they’re each doing a good job, but you probably don’t want too much consensus because you also want to get all of these edge case scenarios of what are the models doing that might deviate a little bit from what the norm is.

COWEN: So, you want your poet graders to disagree with each other some amount.

FOODY: Some amount, exactly, but still a response that is conducive with what most users would want to see in their model responses.

COWEN: Are you ever tempted to ask the AI models, “How good are the poet graders?”

[laughter]

FOODY: We often are. We do a lot of this. It’s where we’ll have the humans create a rubric or some eval to measure success, and then have the models say their perspective. You actually can get a little bit of signal from that, especially if you have an expert — we have tens of thousands of people that are working on our platform at any given time. Oftentimes, there’ll be someone that is tired or not putting a lot of effort into their work, and the models are able to help us with catching that.

And:

COWEN: Let’s say it’s poetry. Let’s say you can get it for free, grab what you want from the known universe. What’s the data that’s going to make the models, working through your company, better at poetry?

FOODY: I think that it’s people that have phenomenal taste of what would users of the end products, users of these frontier models want to see. Someone that understands that when a prompt is given to the model, what is the type of response that people are going to be amazed with? How we define the characteristics of those responses is imperative.

Probably more than just poets that have spent a lot of time in school, we would want people that know how to write work that gets a lot of traction from readers, that gains broad popularity and interest, drives the impact, so to speak, in whatever dimension that we define it within poetry.

COWEN: But what’s the data you want concretely? Is it a tape of them sitting around a table, students come, bring their poems, the person says, “I like this one, here’s why, here’s why not.” Is it that tape or is it written reports? What’s the thing that would come in the mail when you get your wish?

FOODY: The best analog is a rubric. If you have some —

COWEN: A rubric for how to grade?

FOODY: A rubric for how to grade. If the poem evokes this idea that is inevitably going to come up in this prompt or is a characteristic of a really good response, we’ll reward the model a certain amount. If it says this thing, we’ll penalize the model. If it styles the response in this way, we’ll reward it. Those are the types of things, in many ways, very similar to the way that a professor might create a rubric to grade an essay or a poem.

Poetry is definitely a more difficult one because I feel like it’s very unbounded. With a lot of essays that you might grade from your students, it’s a relatively well-scoped prompt where you can probably create a rubric that’s easy to apply to all of them, versus I can only imagine in poetry classes how difficult it is to both create an accurate rubric as well as apply it. The people that are able to do that the best are certainly extremely valuable and exciting.

COWEN: To get all nerdy here, Immanuel Kant in his third critique, Critique of Judgment, said, in essence, taste is that which cannot be captured in a rubric. If the data you want is a rubric and taste is really important, maybe Kant was wrong, but how do I square that whole picture? Is it, by invoking taste, you’re being circular and wishing for a free lunch that comes from outside the model, in a sense?

FOODY: There are other kinds of data they could do if it can’t be captured in a rubric. Another kind is RLHF, where you could have the model generate two responses similar to what you might see in ChatGPT, and then have these people with a lot of taste choose which response they prefer, and do that many times until the model is able to understand their preferences. That could be one way of going about it as well.

Interesting throughout, and definitely recommended.  Note the conversation was recorded in October (we have had a long queue), so a few parts of it sound slightly out of date.  And here is Hollis Robbins on LLMs and poetry.