Who is a first-best economist?

The gut instinct…is to apply a simple supply-demand framework to the question at hand. In this world, every tax has an economic deadweight loss, every restriction on individual behavior reduces the size of the economic pie, distribution and efficiency can be neatly separated, market failures are presumed non-existent unless proved otherwise (and to be addressed only by the appropriate Pigovian tax or subsidy), people are rational and forward-looking to the first order of approximation, demand curves always slope down (and supply curves up), and general-equilibrium interactions do not overturn partial-equilibrium logic.  The First Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics is proof that unfettered markets work best.  No matter how technical, complex, and full of surprises these economists’ own research might be, their take on the issues of the day are driven by a straightforward, almost knee-jerk logic.

The second group — "second best" economists — is Akerlof, Stiglitz, Shiller, Krugman, and Rodrik himself; I believe you know their approach.

I think of myself as a better-than-first-best economist.  On average market solutions have positive Pareto-relevant externalities, if only through supplying experimentation and strengthening social norms in favor of commerce.  That’s true even for the market in thumbtacks, if you consider it as feeding into a broader social stream.  Externalities are virtually everywhere and often I prefer to think in terms of Hayek’s theory of spontaneous order.  Where markets should be allowed to operate, markets are usually too weak in their reach and scope.  Yes there is a continuum of social returns but only rarely are we close to an optimum. 

But I don’t mean this as a plea for laissez-faire.  Governments must produce public goods, maintain social order, and of course support markets.  At the margin, those activities, such as imposing accountability under the law, are also largely underprovided.  For the appropriate selection of policies, government is also better-than-first-best, despite its apparent static inefficiencies.

An oversimplified version of my view is that anything good is underprovided at the margin.  This follows from a belief in strong network and peer effects, and a belief in the relevance of basic sociology.

I favor much less government than Akerlof or Stiglitz or Rodrik himself; yes I view them as "second best" when it comes to government just as they are second best when it comes to markets.  But I’m often 4th or 5th best when it comes to what government does.

Who’s really the utopian?  And how did government ever work itself up to that number two?

Markets in everything roundup

1. Random number generators

2. Do you need a pre-arranged ring on your cell phone?

3. A vasectomy for an iPhone?

4. Matt writes in:

There are companies that register domain names for you,  companies that register domains and then sell them to you, and now companies that come up with unregistered domain names that you can register: http://www.inventmydomain.com and http://www.pickydomains.com.

Twinkie, Deconstructed

There are entire companies which do nothing but break eggs open for other companies; the largest such egg-breaking company is based in Elizabeth, New Jersey.

That is from Twinkie, Deconstructed: My Journey to Discover How the Ingredients Found in Processed Foods Are Grown, Mined (Yes, Mined), and Manipulated Into What America Eats, by Steve Ettlinger.  So far this is my pick for the best food book of the year.

I also learned that a twinkie is about half sugar, sulfuric acid is the most produced chemical in the world, sugar is used to clean out cement mixers, phosphate rock and limestone make Twinkies light and airy, Twinkies’ butter flavor is created out of gas, Twinkies contain only one preservative (sorbic acid), and the original 1930 Twinkies were filled with banana flavor, not vanilla.

The bottom line is that I ordered bought two more of the guy’s books.

Home Envy?

In a survey Robert Frank finds that people say they would rather live in a 3000 square foot home when their neighbors have 2,000-square-foot bungalows than live in a 4000 square foot home in a neighborhood of McMansions.  Greg Mankiw asks:

Do people really behave as reflected in this survey? I bet the 4,000 square foot
house surrounded by McMansions would sell for more than the 3,000 square foot house
surrounded by bungalows.

Let’s take it to the data.   I regressed the sales price of about 12,000 houses in Northern Virginia on a bunch of housing characteristics including number of bathrooms, bedrooms, levels, age of the house and so forth.  I also included the average sales price of homes in the same neighborhood.  The result?  Houses in neighborhoods with high average prices sell for more than similar houses in neighborhoods with lower average prices.  Thus the prima facie evidence is that the same house is worth more if it is surrounded by more expensive houses – the opposite of Frank’s hypothesis.

Now it could be that the high average price of other homes in the neighborhood is controlling for unobservables of "your" home so here is a more precise test.  I defined a variable (sqft-avgsqft) where sqft is the lot size of your house and avgsqft is the neighborhood average.  I then split this into a positive difference, when your house is bigger than your average neighbor’s house and a negative difference when it is smaller.  Bigger houses ought to sell for more everywhere but if Frank is right then square footage is more valuable when other people’s square footage is low (lording it over your neighbors).  Similarly, if Frank is right people should be especially averse to living in small houses in big neighborhoods thus a negative difference should result in much lower prices.

Below you can find the relevant part of the regression.  The bottom line is that houses with bigger lots sell for more (the positive coefficient on lotsqft) but the increase in price is less when your lot size is bigger than the average lot size.  In other words, people do not want to own the biggest house in the neighborhood.

What about when your house is smaller than average?  Here there is no penalty.  Contra Frank, people do not mind having a small house in a neighborhood of McMansions.

SalesPrice Coef. Robust Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]
pos dif -.4012873 .0992195 -4.04 0.000 -.5957739 -.2068006
neg dif .0352269 .0474728 0.74 0.458 -.0578278 .1282815
lotsqft .760224 .0527708 14.41 0.000 .6567846 .8636635

Although the data are inconsistent with Frank’s argument that the rich make the middle class worse off they are consistent with an alternative status effect in which people dislike lording it over their neighbors or in an alternative interpretation, the poor make the rich worse off. 

What is carbon-friendly?

Can this result be true?  The guy claims that food production and refrigeration is so energy-expensive that it is more carbon-friendly to drive your car than to walk.  Walking requires that you eat more to make up the lost energy, as you can lose only so much weight (what’s the relevant margin here?  Ten feet of walking?  A lifetime of walking?).

It is also claimed that: "Paper bags cause more global warming than plastic."  Here is the book, I’ve ordered it and will report in due time.  In the meantime, here is Ezra’s coverage.

From Chicagoboyz, here is a good post on whether tangerines from a distance can be more carbon-friendly than local fruit.  Here is an earlier MR post on the same.

Assorted links

1. Camille Paglia: save the arts with religion

2. Gayle King flirted with me a lot

3. What’s a nerd anyway?  No way is it, at its core, "a rebellion against the cool white kids and their use of black culture…"  Genetics, anybody?

4. Let companies run for electoral office?

5. How are autistic and aspie girls different from the boys?  In the article, Skuse is the guy who nails it.

Are we winning the fight against earmarks?

Maybe not:

Eight months after Democrats vowed to shine light on the dark art of
“earmarking” money for pet projects, many lawmakers say the new
visibility has only intensified the competition for projects by letting
each member see exactly how many everyone else is receiving…

The earmark frenzy hit fever pitch in recent days, even as the Senate passed new rules that allow more public scrutiny of them.

Far
from causing embarrassment, the new transparency has raised the value
of earmarks as a measure of members’ clout. Indeed, lawmakers have
often competed to have their names attached to individual earmarks and
rushed to put out press releases claiming credit for the money they
bring home.

Here is the full story.  A simple model is that such transparency imposes a large, one-time cost on lawmakers and a public relations hit.  But once this hit is taken, the new marginal calculus still brings lots of earmarks.  The "good" news is this:

…the Democratic totals are less than half  the record set by Republicans when they controlled Congress in 2005, but they are far higher than the levels just 10 years ago.

Russian restaurants around the world

Here is the website, yes there are four in Cambodia and one in Laos.  Even better, here is their list of unusual restaurants, some examples:

Auction-like sale of dishes (Malaga, Spain)
All staff are midgets (Cairo, Egypt)
Three robots greet guests and take orders (Hong Kong)
Restaurant for anorexics (Berlin, Germany, now closed, more information here)

The same link lists the world’s best (supposedly) 24 restaurants.

Here is restaurant trivia in Russian.

Where do I disagree with Robin Hanson?

A few days Robin wrote in the comments:

As you well know, I am sensitive to the fact that on facts people disagree too easily, and so I try to disagree reluctantly if at all. But this doesn’t apply to disagreements about styles or personal values. So I accept that we have different styles and place a differing value on overcoming bias. But if there are factual disagreements central to the position of mine you see yourself rebutting, then I would love to see those stated as clearly as possible. I won’t limit your word budget.

For background here is Robin’s home page

Of a randomly chosen three hundred persons, I am probably closer to Robin’s views than anyone else in the group.  It is also common at lunch that he and I gang up together on Bryan and Alex (can you guess on which issues?).  And I’m already on record as citing Robin as one of the most important thinkers of our day; keep that in mind throughout this discussion.  But we have many differences.  Here’s a non-exclusive list of my disagreements with Robin:

1. I see the chance of people becoming uploads — even within centuries — as less than one percent.  Apart from the technical issues (ever get a flat tire?), I think it is easier to graft greater intelligence and computational abilities onto already-existing biological beings.

2. I don’t think that futarchy — using betting markets to shape government policy — can succeed on anything but a very partial basis.  I stress the expressive function of democracy, and its ability to maintain public morale and cohesion, rather than the computational abilities of the system to find and implement the best policies.  I would bet against the future of futarchy, or its likelihood of succeeding were it in place.  Robin says "vote on values, bet on beliefs," but I don’t think values and beliefs can be so easily separated.

3. Robin is much more attached to the fact-value dichotomy than I am, and he is also more attached to seeing facts and theories, or facts and frameworks, as logically separable.  Robin therefore believes all meaningful claims can be stated very precisely in terms of basic facts.  This is his logical atomism.  Reread the comment from Robin at the top.  He suggests that our most important differences are simply those of "style," as though he might like frilly hats and I might carry a purse.

4. I see "overcoming laziness" or "overcoming fear" or even "overcoming inadequate love of Sichuan chili peppers" as often a more important problem than "overcoming bias."  Bias is one fault of many, and I believe Robin’s dislike of bias is indeed biased, more aesthetic than pragmatic.  Robin seems to admit this (above), but he is mentally downgrading this as a mere difference in tastes.  In reality the difference reflects our very distinct analytical engines; mine is more pluralistic.

5. Robin wrote: "If your head is cryogenically frozen today, you will be alive in 2100."  [In fairness to Robin he only seems to assign this sentence a truth probability of 5/14, under one reading of his presentation.]  I assign this a "p" of under one in ten thousand, basically for the reasons that a stupid person would give.

6. Robin thinks we could privatize all law; I don’t.  I believe some public goods require government provision and I think libertarian anarchy would devolve into either chaos or oppressive mafias.

7. Robin believes in the "many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics."  I don’t reject the possibility but I’ll accept the estimate of the professional community of the relevant experts and not raise my "p" or betting odds any higher than that.

Robin frequently and correctly asks disagreeing others to boil down disagreements to their fundamentals.  I would describe this difference as possible:

"Robin is very fond on powerful theories which invoke a very small number of basic elements and give those elements great force.  He likes to focus on one very central mechanism in seeking an explanation or developing policy advice.  Modern physics and Darwin hold too strong a sway in his underlying mental models.  He is also very fond of hypotheses involving the idea of a great transformation sometime in the future, and these transformations are often driven by the mechanism he has in mind.  I tend to see good social science explanations or proposals as intrinsically messy and complex and involving many different perspectives, not all of which can be reduced to a single common framework.  I know that many of my claims sound vague to Robin’s logical atomism, but I believe that, given our current state of knowledge, Robin is seeking a false precision and he is sometimes missing out on an important multiplicity of perspectives.  Many of his views should be more cautious."

8. I believe Robin does not agree that is the main difference between us.

Addendum: Here is Robin’s response.

Move south to live longer

Cold kills you more than does heat:

These longevity gains associated with long term trends in geographical
mobility account for 8%-15% of the total gains in life expectancy
experienced by the US population over the past 30 years.  Thus mobility
is an important but previously overlooked determinant of increased
longevity in the United States.

Here is the paper.  Here are non-gated versions.

Bookforum update

You may recall that we are having the first MarginalRevolution BookForum on Greg Clark’s A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World.  Here is my previous post on the book and how the forum will work.  It’s a great book and I recommend it highly.

Orders from loyal MR readers have been very strong, and many (all?) of you are receiving emails from Amazon.com about publication delays for the book.  The publisher assures me that they are working hard to fill all orders in a timely fashion and the final delay is likely to be a slight one rather than a long one into October.  Early September is looking like the time we will start discussing the book.  But I’ll keep you posted as we hear more…