Friday assorted links

1. Down Syndrome Barbie.

2. Paul McCartney as singer.

3. Some limits of self-improving AI.

4. The battle over refrigerating butter (WSJ).  “Claire Dinhut, who goes by “Condiment Claire” on TikTok, prefers to eat salted butter cold for its thicker texture. She talked about the Danish word tandsmør, which translates to a layer of butter so thick that a bite leaves teeth marks.”

5. Cass Sunstein: Artificial Intelligence and the First Amendment.  How about bots that pay humans small amounts of crypto to “co-author” articles, so that the bots may receive additional First Amendment protections?

6. A Taiwanese recession?

Great News for Female Academics!

For decades female academics have been told that the deck is stacked against them by discrimination in hiring, funding, journal acceptances, recommendation letters and more. It’s dispiriting to be told that your career is not under your control and that, no matter what you do, you face an unfair, uphill battle. Why would any woman want to be a scientist when they are told things like this:

A vast literature….shows time after time, women in science are deemed to be inferior to men and are evaluated as less capable when performing similar or even identical work. This systemic devaluation of women women results in an array of real consequences: shorter, less praise-worth letters of recommendation, fewer research grants, awards and invitations to speak at conferences; and lower citation rates for their research…

The good news is that this depressing and dispiriting story isn’t true! In an extensive survey, meta-analysis, and new research, Ceci, Kahn and Williams show that the situation for women in academia is in many domains good to great. For example, in hiring for tenure the evidence is strong that women are advantaged. Moreover, women are advantaged especially in fields where they have relatively low representation (GEMP: geosciences, engineering, economics, mathematics/computer science, and physical science).

Among political scientists, Schröder et al. (2021) found that female political scientists had a 20% greater likelihood of obtaining a tenured position than comparably accomplished males in the same cohort after controlling for personal characteristics and accomplishments (publications, grants, children, etc.). Lutter and Schröder (2016) found that women needed 23% to 44% fewer publications than men to obtain a tenured job in German sociology departments.

…In summary, all of the seven administrative reports reveal substantial evidence that women applicants were at least as successful as and usually more successful than male applicants were—particularly in GEMP fields.

…In a natural experiment, French economists used national exam data for 11 fields, focusing on PhD holders who form the core of French academic hiring (Breda & Hillion, 2016). They compared blinded and nonblinded exam scores for the same men and women and discovered that women received higher scores when their gender was known than when it was not when a field was male dominant (math, physics, philosophy), indicating a positive bias, and that this difference strongly increased with a field’s male dominance. Specifically, women’s rank in male-dominated fields increased by up to 40% of a standard deviation. In contrast, male candidates in fields dominated by women (literature, foreign languages) were given a small boost over expectations based on blind ratings, but this difference was small and rarely significant.6

The situation is also very good in grant funding and journal acceptance rates which are either not biased or biased towards women. Similarly, “no persuasive evidence exists for the claim of antifemale bias in academic letters of recommendation.”

There is evidence of bias in student evaluations. Both female and male students rate male professors higher, even in situations where names are known but actual gender is blinded. Male students are more likely to write nasty comments. Most research universities, in my experience, don’t put much weight on student teaching evaluations, beyond do you pass a fairly low bar, but it can be disconcerting to get nasty comments.

There is also mild evidence of differences in salary, although less so when productivity is taken into account.

Some critics will say, but the real discrimination happens before a women applies for a tenure track job! Maybe so but that is a shifting of goal posts and we should take pride in the fact that in the United States today (and most developed countries) there is very little bias against women in high stakes, important decisions in tenure track hiring, journal acceptances, grant funding and so forth. This is a major accomplishment.

It should be noted that the Ceci, Kahn and Williams paper is an adversarial collaboration; Ceci and Williams have published previous work showing that women are, generally speaking, not discriminated against in academia while:

Kahn has a long history of revealing gender inequities in her field of economics, and her work runs counter to Ceci and Williams’s claims of gender fairness. Kahn was an early member of the American Economics Association’s Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession (CSWEP). Articles of hers in the American Economics Review (Kahn, 1993) and in the Journal of Economic Perspectives (Kahn, 1995) were the first publications on the status of women in the economics profession. She was the first to identify gender inequities as a concern in economics, something she has revisited every decade since then in her publications. In 2019, she co-organized a conference on women in economics, and her most recent analysis in 2021 found gender inequities persisting in tenure and promotion in economics (Ginther & Kahn, 2021). In short, gender bias in academia has been a long-standing passion of Kahn’s. Her findings diverge from Ceci and Williams’s, who have published a number of studies that have not found gender bias in the academy, such as their analyses of grants and tenure-track hiring in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS; Ceci & Williams, 2011; Williams & Ceci, 2015).

The Ceci, Kahn, and Williams paper covers much more material than I can cover here and is nuanced so read the whole thing but do also shout the good news from the rooftops!

Another bit on short-termism

A better argument would be that the agency relationship (and habitual firing for inferior short-term performance), rather than capitalism, leads to excess short-termism. Capitalism has plenty of agency relationships, of course, but so do all other systems, including politics and the charitable sector. At least under capitalism there is an incentive to terminate or alter the most destructive agency relationships, precisely because they reduce longer-term wealth.

That is by me, from my recent TLS review essay.

How much smaller will big business become?

At least on the tech side:

Consider the most prestigious service that generates images using AI, a company called Midjourney. It has a total of 11 full-time employees. Perhaps more are on the way, but that is remarkably few workers for a company that is becoming widely known in its field.

Part of the trick, of course, is that a lot of the work is done by computers and artificial intelligence. I don’t think this will lead to mass unemployment, because history shows that workers have typically managed to move from automating sectors into new and growing ones. But if some of the new job-creating sectors are personal services such as elder care, those jobs are typically in smaller and more local firms. That means fewer Americans working for big business.

Or consider ChatGPT, which has been described as the most rapidly growing consumer technology product in history. It is produced by OpenAI, headquartered in San Francisco. By one recent estimate the company has about 375 employees. By contrast, Meta, even after some layoffs, currently has more than 60,000.

Perhaps cloud computing will be run through a few mega-firms such as Microsoft and Amazon, but — due largely to AI — we can expect many firms to radically shrink in size?

Here is the rest of my Bloomberg column.

Executive in Residence, Math Talent Search

Who We Are: Carina Initiatives

Carina Initiatives is a philanthropic fund working to send more kids from more communities to the frontiers of science and technology. We see math as fundamental to future innovation; as such, we fund and support organizations that work to inspire, unearth, and train math talent.

Here is the link.  This has the promise to be an important post, but it needs the right person.

Thursday assorted links

1. New Charles Jones paper analyzing the normative issues behind existential risk (though not its likelihood).

2. Banks don’t use swaps very much to hedge interest rate risk.

3. Do automobile touchscreens work?

4. Dutchman wins European seagull screeching championship.

5. Adrian Woolridge on Roger Scruton (Bloomberg).

6. How good or bad are coffee dates?  Compared to what?

7. Tocqueville on the importance of travel for learning.

8. Fugees Malaysia markets in everything.

Should we expect a recession?

Christina and David Romer have a new NBER paper on this topic and they say yes:

The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact of monetary policy as the focal application. We read the historical minutes and transcripts of Federal Reserve policymaking meetings to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy not taken in response to current or prospective developments in real activity for the period 1946 to 2016. We find that such monetary shocks have large and significant effects on unemployment, output, and inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely occurred in 2022. Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024.

They call this “the narrative approach.”

My TLS essay on long-termism

I am pleased to have the lead cover essay in the new TLS, titled “Every Little Helps.”  I consider three new books on long-termism, and give my latest thoughts on that movement.  Here is one excerpt from a much longer piece:

I have found that many advocates of longtermism favour the analytic mode and consequently de-emphasize the empathetic mode of political argument. That is one reason why longtermism is so controversial. The complicated nature of long-term arguments means that they are most commonly put forward by people with analytical inclinations. The kinds of arguments and discourse that are corralled in support of longtermism emerge from fields such as economics, rational choice theory and ethics, game theory and analytic philosophy. That may be a bug or a feature, depending on your point of view. Either way, the true disagreements over long-termism, as with most political concerns, remain foundationally rooted in our emotions and our personal temperaments.

The right wing has its own version of scepticism about longtermism. To many of my conservative and libertarian friends it sounds like a programme for maximizing state power, or creating world government, for the pursuit of ill-defined, distant benefits that will likely never come to pass. In these people’s cynical but nonetheless insightful view, those who profess longtermism are, deep down, just as concerned with the immediate present and their short-term politics as is everyone else. The left and right-wing critiques may sound very different, but both point to a difficult question: are the most ardent longtermists even capable of longtermism themselves?

Recommended, for the short-term as well.

At the Helm, Kirk or Spock? The Pros and Cons of Charismatic Leadership

That is a new paper (AEA gate) by the very smart Benjamin Hermalin, here is the abstract:

Charismatic leaders are often desired. At the same time, experience, especially with demagogues, as well as social science studies, raise doubts about such leaders. This paper offers explanations for charismatic leadership’s “mixed report card.” It offers insights into why and when charismatic leadership can be effective; which, when, and why certain groups will prefer more to less charismatic leaders; and how being more charismatic can make leaders worse in other dimensions, particularly causing them to work less hard on their followers’ behalf.

And here is one important part of the model:

…a charismatic leader can get away with concealing bad news without triggering overly pessimistic beliefs.

I like the paper, but isn’t Spock super-charismatic, and all these women want to sleep with him?  And isn’t there a long article about all the terrible decisions and advice stemming from Spock in various Star Trek episodes?

A Day in the Life

…of the Bank of England, in the eighteenth century.  Brought to you by Anne L. Murphy in her new book Virtuous Bankers: A Day in the Life of the Eighteenth-Century Bank of England.  This book is a remarkable achievement, as it truly does recreate the rhythms of a typical day in the life of the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street:

Early afternoon was viewed by the Inspectors as one of the times during which the Bank was at its most vulnerable.  This was because most of the senior men would leave for the day at around three o’clock, some to pursue second jobs and others to take advantage of the leisure ‘earned’ by their seniority.  It was an action that the Inspectors regarded as ‘very extraordinary’ and certainly not what was expected from men in positions of responsibility.

How many other works have sentences like this?:

There is no record of the types of locks generally used at the Bank, but it is clear that the Inspectors were unconvinced of their quality in at least some cases.

This book is not for all readers (not everyone will care about the particular topic), but it represents a very real advance in our understanding of how things actually work.

Catawba Digital Economic Zone Passes Banking Code

The Catawba Digital Economic Zone (CDEZ), a project of the Catawba Indian Nation (I am an advisor), has passed a banking and financial services regulatory code. The code allows financial services companies and banks to receive charters to operate a bank similar to that offered by US states.

…The goal of the code is to create a “best-of-all-worlds” set of laws that will provide the Nation with: 1) a comprehensive legal code for the regulation of traditional and emerging digital financial activities; 2) legal terms that are already recognized and accepted by the federal government for access to the U.S. and global financial systems; and 3) provisions that enhance the Nation’s sovereignty and create competitive advantages for the Nation’s economic development.

To achieve these objectives, the foundation of the code synthesizes terms from the existing financial codes of three states: South Dakota, North Dakota, and Wyoming. These state codes were selected as a starting point based on their commitment to regulating innovative financial activity to protect consumers and encourage responsible innovation.

AGI and the division of powers within government

I’m not sure the AGI concept is entirely well-defined, but let’s put aside the more dramatic scenarios and assume that AI can perform at least some of the following functions:

1. Evaluate many policies and regulations better than human analysts can.

2. Sometimes outperform and outguess asset price markets.

3. Formulate the most effective campaign strategies for politicians.

4. Understand and manage geopolitics better than humans can.

5. Write better Supreme Court opinions and, for a given ethical point of view, produce a better ruling.

You could add to that list, but you get the point.  These are a big stretch beyond current models, but not on the super-brain level.

One option, of course, is simply that everyone can use this service, like the current GPT-4, and then few questions arise about differential political access.  But what if the service is expensive, and/or access is restricted for reasons of law, regulation, and national security?  Exactly who or what in government allocates use of the service within government?

Can any member of the House of Representatives pay the service a visit and ask away?  Do incumbents then end up with a major new advantage over challengers?

How do you stop the nuttier Reps from giving away the information they can access, perhaps to unsalubrious parties or foreign powers?  Don’t national security issues suddenly become much tougher, as if all Reps suddenly are on the Senate Intelligence Committee?

Surely the President can claim it is a weapon of sorts and access it at will?  Can he or she veto the access of other individuals?  Will the rival running for President, from the other party, have any access at all?

Can the national security establishment veto the access of individuals within the political establishment?  If so, does the Executive Branch and national security establishment gain greatly in power?

Have we now created a kind of “fourth branch” of government?

Do we ask the AI who or what should get access?

Say the Republicans or Democrats win a trifecta?  Do they now have a kind of monopoly access over the AI?

Can the technically non-governmental Fed access it?  If so, just the chair, the whole FOMC, or the staff as well?  If the staff cannot access it, what good are they?

We haven’t even talked about federalism yet — what if a governor has a pressing query?  Will Texas build its own model?

Let’s say this is the UK — does the party in opposition have equal access to the AI?  Exactly which legal entity with which governance mechanism counts as “the party in opposition”?  Can you start a small party, opposing the national government, just to get access?

Say some Brits are in a coalition with one of those tiny parties from Northern Ireland.  Can the coalition partner demand access on equal terms?  (How about Sinn Fein?)  How about in PR systems?

Doesn’t this make all political coalitions higher stakes, more fraught, and more fragile?  And more suffused with security risks?

Inquiring minds wish to know.

*The AI Revolution in Medicine: GPT-4 and Beyond*

A new, forthcoming book by Peter Lee, Carey Goldberg, and Isaac Kohane, with Sebastian Bubeck.  The researchers were given advance access to GPT-4 (with no editorial controls), and this book documents the power of the results, for instance:

In our testing, when given a full battery of USMLE [medical licensing exam] problems, GPT-4 answers them correctly more than 90 percent of the time.

And it can give very good explanations.

Due out May 13, this book is the documentation, definitely recommended, especially for the skeptics.