Saturday assorted links
1. Revised reviews for older CDs. I always thought that Liz Phair recording was excellent.
2. Ezra Klein on David Shor (NYT).
3. Progress for libertarians in Argentina? (The Economist) Plus tantric sex and a mastiff named Murray Rothbard.
4. China/Taiwan/America polls of the day. Grain of salt, of course.
Washington, D.C. facts of the day
The report released Thursday by the DowntownDC Business Improvement District painted a bleak picture of fall in downtown Washington, driven largely by the continued absence of nine-to-fivers. Office vacancies hit record highs, dozens of restaurants remain closed, and less than 25 percent of employees had returned to their downtown buildings by mid-September — up less than 2 percent from July. In a telltale sign of hard times in downtown Washington, it is difficult to find a shop open for coffee after 4 p.m.
Here is more from Emily Davies.
Is the revolving door a moderating force on politicians?
Board appointments represent highly lucrative career trajectories for former politicians. We investigate which types of legislators are more likely to gain board service. Leveraging comprehensive data on the board service of former Members of Congress, we show that ideological extremists are less likely to be appointed to a board after serving in Congress. Additionally, we use a difference-in-differences design to show that when the supply of legislators who are willing to take a directorship increases, firms become less likely to appoint extremist legislators to their board. The estimates are striking in magnitude, indicating a strong preference for appointing moderates to boards. Surprisingly, we find no evidence that a strong legislative record, service on powerful committees, or networks increase the probability of board service. The results show that extremist legislators are effectively shut out of one of the most lucrative post-elective career paths, placing a cost on radical behavior.
That is from a new paper by Benjamin C.K. Egerod and Hai Tran.
Servers are masked, the elites are unmasked
That is the main topic of my latest Bloomberg column. Here is one bit:
Even if the attendees are wearing masks at the beginning, the masks come off once they start wining and dining — and they usually don’t go back on. Isn’t this a sign that mask-wearing is no longer so essential? At the very least, it sends a mixed message: If you want to be comfortable eating and drinking with your peers, it’s OK to take off your mask — but it’s not OK if you want to be comfortable serving food, carrying heavy trays and describing the dessert menu…
By now everyone must realize just how selective the enforcement of mask rules can be. If those same employees are drinking or eating together in the back room, their masks are off and everyone is fine with that. All of a sudden, the possibility of spreading a Covid infection is not such a big deal.
And:
Many public health intellectuals and pundits may be uncomfortable with mask apartheid. But they have so strongly promoted the mask-wearing norm it is hard for them to object. They could argue that the elite guests should be required to wear their masks before and after the food and drinks are served, or even between bites, but at this point such a recommendation would be ignored.
If you read the whole piece, some of my readers will notice I am actually presenting one of the versions of Sen’s Paretian Liberal Paradox.
ChessCoach
Friday assorted links
The Future is Getting Farther Away
In Launching the Innovation Renaissance I said that “If total factor productivity had continued to grow at its 1957 to 1973 rate then we today would be living in the world of 2076 rather than in the world of 2014.” Sadly, the future is continuing to recede. Consider the graph below. If growth had continued at the rate expected by the CBO in 2005 then we today would be living in the world of 2037 rather than in the world of 2021. (n.b. I am eyeballing.)
By the way, don’t blame the forecasters. The forecast was reasonable, the reality is below expectation.
Hat tip: Matt Yglesias reupping a graph originally produced by Claudia Sahm who I thought had a different interpretation but maybe not!.
From the comments, on nuclear waste storage
School quality in cities, from my email
On your podcast recently you asked Ed Glaeser for his political economy model to explain why schools in cities are so bad. I think it may just be schools in American cities that are bad rather than schools in cities in general, and the political economy reason why is probably local control over schools.
I am familiar with the situation in England, where outcomes are better in large cities. English children on free school meals (usually because their parents are on welfare) have substantially better exam results and are a lot more likely to go to university in large cities than in the rest of the country, while children not on free school meals do about as well as in large cities or slightly better.
That said, schools in large English cities were bad 20-30 years ago – in 2001 educational outcomes in inner London were the worst in England – and the improvement coincided with major policy change. Starting in 1990, school governance reforms in England have nearly eliminated the powers of local authorities over schools. Most schools are now ‘academies’ entirely independent from local authorities, and local authorities have very little discretion in how they manage schools theoretically under their control. On the other hand, in the US local government makes more of the decisions on education than in any other OECD country: 72% of decisions in the US are local, compared to the OECD average of 3%.
Why is local control bad for cities? I think it comes from the interaction between selection effects, measurement of school quality and local control. It’s genuinely quite hard for parents to assess school quality, and the data that is comparable and easy to use, like test results, combines underlying quality and selection effects. US Cities are surrounded by independently governed suburbs, some of which will always appear to have better schools than the city because of selection effects. This draws the parents that are most motivated by education to move out of the city and to those suburbs, leaving the cities with an electorate less motivated by education as an issue – these parents are probably also better educated. Local governments have no incentives to compete over the capacity to improve the outcomes of poorly performing children, since this could attract more of these students and make their test results look worse.
The problem of a less interested electorate is aggravated by the complexity of school governance. School districts in cities are usually run by elected school boards, and often too large to be able to compare to other areas, or be held accountable for the performance of any given school. Urban voters have little in the way of partisan cues to help them choose between candidates – elections are either explicitly non-partisan or dominated by Democrats. This makes it easy for powerful interest groups (teachers unions) to dominate school board elections. Suburbs not only have more interested, more educated voters, but have much smaller school districts: a quick look on Google tells me the best school districts in big city suburbs often run fewer than 5 high schools. Suburban voters can easily compare school performance to other suburbs, and hold their boards accountable.
In summary, schools in American cities are bad because they have strong local government control over education, most often through elected school boards. Suburbs in the metro area can select for high-performing students, and parents concerned over education will confuse that with high school performance and move to the suburbs. This leaves the parents least capable of organising to reform schools concentrated in cities, which, compounded by complex governance and the size of urban school districts, leaves parents in cities incapable of overcoming the resistance of interest groups.
That is from Igor Zurimendi.
New results on the Child Tax Credit
Here is my “Control C” from Greg Mankiw:
A new paper by Kevin Corinth, Bruce Meyer, Matthew Stadnicki, and Derek Wu finds the following (emphasis added).
The proposed change under the American Families Plan (AFP) to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) Child Tax Credit (CTC) would increase maximum benefit amounts to $3,000 or $3,600 per child (up from $2,000 per child) and make the full credit available to all low and middle-income families regardless of earnings or income. We estimate the anti-poverty, targeting, and labor supply effects of the expansion by linking survey data with administrative tax and government program data which form part of the Comprehensive Income Dataset (CID). Initially ignoring any behavioral responses, we estimate that the expansion of the CTC would reduce child poverty by 34% and deep child poverty by 39%. The expansion of the CTC would have a larger anti-poverty effect on children than any existing government program, though at a higher cost per child raised above the poverty line than any other means-tested program. Relatedly, the CTC expansion would allocate a smaller share of its total dollars to families at the bottom of the income distribution—as well as families with the lowest levels of long-term income, education, or health—than any existing means-tested program with the exception of housing assistance. We then simulate anti-poverty effects accounting for labor supply responses. By replacing the TCJA CTC (which contained substantial work incentives akin to the EITC) with a universal basic income-type benefit, the CTC expansion reduces the return to working at all by at least $2,000 per child for most workers with children. Relying on elasticity estimates consistent with mainstream simulation models and the academic literature, we estimate that this change in policy would lead 1.5 million workers (constituting 2.6% of all working parents) to exit the labor force. The decline in employment and the consequent earnings loss would mean that child poverty would only fall by 22% and deep child poverty would not fall at all with the CTC expansion.
Worth a ponder.
To protect the village we must destroy it
“If the SEC were to deem one of these coins a security, the value of that token would plummet. And those retail investors would be seriously hurt — that’s directly the opposite of his mission and his authority.”
That is from Rep. Tom Emmer (Republican, Minnesota), published in the FT.
Thursday assorted links
The New Top Chef
During the pandemic a pasta restaurant launched on UberEats in Paris. Cala quickly attracted a top 1% rating for it’s high quality to price ratio. Only now has it been revealed that the chef is a robot.
“We wanted to make sure that the quality of the product was what was really driving customers to come to a restaurant,” says Ylan Richard, who founded Cala in 2019, when he was 19 . “No one knew there was a robot behind the restaurant on the platforms.”
The economics are interesting.
Most restaurants spend roughly 30% of their costs on food; 30% on labour and 30% on real estate (rent, maintenance, electricity, heating and cleaning.)
In Cala’s restaurant, the kitchen is entirely removed and replaced by the robot, which measures 3m2 — significantly reducing the space needed. The restaurant also doesn’t have any seating.
The robot also allows Cala to produce many more meals per hour per square metre than other restaurants.
“With three metres squared, we can serve 1.2k meals an hour,” says Richard. “A traditional McDonald’s restaurant is 125m2, and usually they can serve 550 meals an hour.”
The robot means Cala saves 60% on real estate costs, which it says it puts into spending more on the cost of food ingredients, allowing it, Richard says, to deliver higher quality meals at a better price.
More generally, one can see top chefs producing recipes that are then scaled not just to restaurants but also to home robot preparation services. Meals would be produced by a subscription service (“We have 10,000 recipes from the greatest chefs on every continent.”). Restaurants would compete even more on ambience.
Remember when people used to savage real business cycle theory?
In Germany, where one in four jobs depends on exports, the crisis gumming up the world’s supply chains is weighing heavily on the economy, which is Europe’s largest and a linchpin to global commerce.
Recent surveys and data point to a sharp slowdown of the German manufacturing powerhouse, and economists have begun to predict a “bottleneck recession.”
Almost everything that German factories need to operate is in short supply, not just computer chips but also plywood, copper, aluminum, plastics and raw materials like cobalt, lithium, nickel and graphite, which are crucial ingredients of electric car batteries.
And this:
The widespread assumption that suppliers close to home are more reliable has not always proved true. During the turmoil caused by the pandemic, some German companies had more trouble getting supplies from France or Italy, because of strict lockdowns, than they did from Asia.
Here is the full NYT piece by Jack Ewing, recommended.
Who are the greatest Irish artists? part V, Harry Clarke
Harry Clarke, 1889-1931, born Dublin, stained glass artist and book illustrator, styles broadly Art Nouveau and symbolist.
He produced over 130 stained glass windows, the majority of which are in Ireland and then England. He was renowned for his rich, original colors and his deep blues. The value of his work is often site-specific (it would make for a great “go around Ireland” tour), and, unlike with most paintings, a jpeg picks up only one part of the broader work. Nonetheless here is one image:
Or try this:
Still not good enough. I don’t feel I can make a real case by giving you more images, maybe you would do better to just view a bunch en masse. A visit to the National Gallery in Dublin is better yet. Barring that, this excellent catalog has fine images. Here is a good short piece on Clarke’s weirdness (“the Irish artist welded Christian, Celtic and pagan imagery with the decadence of Klimt and Beardsley into an exotic futuristic fantasy”), also with quality images.
I see a few reasons for giving Clarke serious consideration:
1. He did most of his major work in Ireland. And his “Celtic revival” emphasis is perhaps closer in spirit to contemporary Ireland than are the Anglo-Irish backgrounds of many of the other leading contenders for best Irish artist.
2. He expresses the playful, dramatic, and rebellious sides of the Irish national spirit.
3. He is strikingly original. Some of his work also influenced later developments in illustration and graphic novels. He in turn drew on varied sources, including religious illustrations, Russian ballet and Russian theatre art, and the cinema.
4. The colors are memorable and the technical execution is very strong.
5. He and his studio did church stained glass for Bayonne, New Jersey.
6. You could imagine him doing a cover for a Camille Paglia book. As it stands, he did illustrate Goethe, Swinburne, and Hans Christian Andersen.
Ultimately he seems a little too concentrated in one direction to be my top pick, and maybe my number one Irish artist shouldn’t be so…”fruity”? But I enjoy his work greatly those (few) times I have been able to see it and I do recommend him highly.
I hope you’ll be getting the final installment in this series — my #1 pick — pretty soon.
That is from Dan Hanson from the comments section.