How simple can tax reform get? (from the comments)

The corporate income tax could be reduced to zero if all corporations were treated as pass-thru’s. However, for a variety of technical and practical reasons (too lengthy to discuss here), that is not feasible. Under the current regime, many businesses have the option to be treated as pass-thru’s (e.g., LLC’s and partnerships) and thus taxed only once at the individual rate, but for most publicly traded and very large entities, entities with foreign shareholders, etc., that is not possible or practical. One could also consider an imputation system such as used by the UK, but that is also messy.

The ideal system should treat all income at the same rate, regardless of the form of business. Currently, corporate income (including distributions) is subject to a higher rate than income from non-corporate entities. The federal marginal rate is currently 48 percent (35% + (.20 x .65) = 48%) compared with a marginal rate of 39.6% on ordinary income. These rates should be equalized and, preferably, the rate of corporate tax and the rate on distributions should also be roughly equal in order not to discourage corporate re-investment over distributions or vice versa and therefore avoid undue distortion regarding decisions on the allocation of capital. Thus, at the current marginal rate of 39.6%, the current proposal of a corporate rate of 25% would roughly achieve this with the current dividend marginal rate of 20% (25% + (.20 x .75) = 40%). Progressivity can be achieved (as it currently is) through progressive rates on the dividends/capital gains.

As someone who spent an entire professional career in the business, I find it amusing and naive that economists who lack any detailed knowledge of the Code or practical experience with its administration think it’s easy to radically “simplify the tax code”, make it “fair” to everyone, eliminate all tax avoidance, all at the same time! The three are simply not feasible simultaneously. As a wise man once said, “the life of the law has not been logic, but experience”.

The experience has also been that we need more than one type of tax in order to prevent the inevitable tax planning around one or the other. The system is complicated, but it is a result of a considerable amount of trial and error and political compromises. It can be made better, yes, but Trump’s promises are more credible than those who promise a one page tax code.

That is from Vivian Darkbloom.  And from another Vivian comment:

1. “…so just tax that person”. Please explain how, absent a corporate income tax, the US is going to effectively tax foreign investors, if they invest via a US or foreign corporation. This is a major practical problem of eliminating the corporate income tax completely. It would be very difficult to get one’s ounce of tax flesh out of non-US investors and put them on equal footing with US investors (the same issue arises with a system relying solely on consumption tax). It would be very impractical to abrogate the 68 or so bilateral tax treaties the US is party to today or the treaties of friendship and commerce.

On the mark.

*Greater Gotham: A History of New York City from 1898 to 1919*

Written by Mike Wallace, and weighing in at almost 1200 pp., this is one of the best books of the year.  Every page has interesting material.  You could pull out just the bits on the origins of the subway, or the development of the arts and entertainment, or immigration, and still have one of the best books of the year.  From one Amazon review:

The narratives are well-honed and to the point. There is not one ounce of journalistic fluff. There are no fanciful digressions into fads and fashions of the day. There is no imaginary dialogue, unlike the situation found in some “history books” written by mere poseurs.

And:

Simply put this is another masterpiece deserving the highest accolades. Tremendously rich in anecdotes it is superbly written. If you grew-up in New York, particularly in the outer boroughs, the book will have a special meaning for you as you see the physical, cultural and human development of your neighborhood. My favorite sections were on the development of the ‘arteries and ligaments’ of the city; the radicals among the Jewish immigrants, and New York in World War I.

I have read only a few hundred pages of it, and may not read it all, but am likely to read more than half of it.  Strongly recommended, it’s also one of the best books on American history period.  You can order it here.

New MRU Course: Understanding Data

Tyler and I are thrilled to announce the next great course at MRUniversity, Understanding Data. Understanding Data is taught by our well-known and accomplished colleague Thomas Stratmann and is our most ambitious course to date.

In addition to lectures, Understanding Data features a fantastic interactive data tool, a built-in version of DataSplash, which was designed by Thomas Stratmann and Lorens Helmchen specifically to run small regressions and to teach econometrics. Students can pause the video, run regressions, make predictions, compute correlations look at summary statistics and more–all on the same page! Furthermore, as the video progresses students are asked to answer questions and they receive immediate feedback on their answers.

A lot of work went into producing this course. Not only from Thomas and Lorens but also from our superb team at MRU led by Roman Hardgrave. This is a quantum leap for MRU and what you are seeing is version 1. If you notice some bugs or things that can be improved do email [email protected]. Thanks.

The first lecture featuring the interactive data tool is Interpreting the Regression Line.

Which are the happiest castes?

There is a new paper on that topic by Bert Van Landeghem at Sheffield, here are the main results:

A large number of empirical studies have investigated the link between social status and happiness, yet in observational data identification challenges remain severe. This study exploits the fact that in India people are assigned a caste from birth. Two identical surveys of household heads (each with N=1000) in rural Punjab and Andhra Pradesh show an increasing pattern in economic welfare across the hierarchy of castes. This illustrates that at least in rural regions, one’s caste is still an important determinant for opportunities in life. Subsequently, we find that the castes at the top are clearly more satisfied than the lower and middle castes. This result, which is in line with predictions of all major social comparison theories, is robust across the two case studies. The pattern across low and middle castes, however, is less clear, reflecting the complex theoretical relationship between being of middle rank on the one hand, and behaviour, aspirations and well-being on the other hand. In the Punjab sample, we even find a significant U-shape, the middle castes being the least happy. Interestingly, these patterns resemble those found for Olympic Medalists (first documented by Medvec et al. 1995).

I am looking forward to my conversation with Sujatha Gidla.

The Tyler Cowen Guide to 10.5 hr layover in Los Angeles

That is a reader request, here goes:

I sometimes describe L.A. as the world’s best city to live in, but one of the worst to visit.  Nonetheless you have some pretty good options.  With half a day, make sure you have a rental car with the appropriate soundtrack(s).  If you start from LAX, pick one road to drive east on, another to head back east to west — how about Sunset and Pico?  Wilshire?  Stop and walk as you can, convenient parking is often available.  Use Jonathan Gold to pick the right eating places, perhaps Thai and Mexican?  Veer off a wee bit and visit the La Brea Tar Pits, or for a longer trek Watts Towers.  Time the sunset for Griffith Park.  Deemphasize “Downtown” but consider the new Broad Museum for contemporary art.  Work in a beach walk at Santa Monica or Venice, preferably the former.  See a movie.  See another movie.  Avoid Beverly Hills.  The truly ambitious can drive all the way down Western Ave. and stop for Belizean food along the way to that chapel at the very bottom of the road.

Basta!

Is this the world you should want?

We use a machine learning algorithm to identify potential social capital measures that best predict neighborhood-level variation in labor market networks. We find evidence suggesting that smaller and less centralized schools, and schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share. The presence of establishments in a number of non-profit oriented industries are identified as predictive of strong labor market networks, likely because they either provide public goods or facilitate social contacts. These industries include, for example, churches and other religious institutions, schools, country clubs, and amateur or recreational sports teams or clubs.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Brian J. Asquith, Judith K. Hellerstein, Mark J. Kutzbach, and David Neumark.

The Economics of Attention

David Evans on the economics of attention:

In 2016, 437 billion hours, worth $7.1 trillion dollars, were exchanged in the
attention market in the US based on conservative estimates reported above. Attention
platforms paid for that time with content and then sold advertisers access to portions of that
time. As a result, advertisers were able to deliver messages to consumers that those
consumers would probably not have accepted in the absence of the barter of content for
their time. Consumers often don’t like getting these messages. But by agreeing to receive
them they make markets more competitive.


The economics of attention markets focuses on three features. First it focuses on
time as the key dimension of competition since it is what is being bought and sold. Second,
it focuses on content since it plays a central role in acquiring time, embedding advertising
messages, and operating efficient attention platforms. And third it focuses on the scarcity of
time and the implications of that for competition among attention platforms.

The $7.1 trillion estimate for the value of content seems too high. The high value comes from Evans assuming that the marginal wage is higher than the average so the average wage which he uses to calculate the value of time is, if anything, an underestimate while for most people I think the marginal wage is lower than the average (many people don’t even have jobs) so the average is an over-estimate. Brynjolfsson and Oh, however, using somewhat different methods estimate the consumer surplus from television as 10% of GDP and from the internet of 6% GDP or combined about $3 trillion at current levels. Either way the attention economy is very large and understudied relative to its importance.

Should we move to self-assessed property taxation?

Eric Posner and Glen Weyl recommend a version of this idea in their recent paper “Property is Only Another Name for Monopoly.”

The core proposal is you announce how much each piece of your property is worth, and you are then taxed as a percentage of that value (say 2.5%).  At the same time, you have to sell your property for that same value, if someone bids for it, thereby lowering or eliminating the incentive to under-report true values.  If you think this through, you can see it minimizes holdout problems.

I think of the proposal as trying to force “willingness to be paid” people to live at “willingness to pay” valuations.  Microfoundations as to why WTBP and WTP so diverge would be useful!

In the meantime, my main worry concerns complementarity.  Say I own eighty pieces of property, and together they constitute a life plan.  The value of any one piece of property depends on the others.  For instance, if I lived in a more distant house, the car would be of higher value.  The ping pong table would be worth less in Minnesota, and having a good slow cooker enhances the refrigerator.  Don’t get me started on the CDs, but of course they boost the value of the stereo system and for that matter all the books.  I’ll leave aside purely “replaceable” commodities that can be replenished at will, and with no loss of value, through a click on Amazon (Posner and Weyl in any case think those replaceables should be taxed at much lower rates).

So how do I announce the value of any single piece of that property, knowing I might have to end up selling its complements?

In essence, I have to calculate how much the rest of the economy values each piece of my property, for me to know how much any single piece is worth.  That recreates a version of the socialist calculation problem, not for the planner, but for every single taxpayer.  And you can’t rely on the status quo ex ante as a readily available default, because that status quo can be purchased away from you.

The authors do consider related issues on pp.76-78 and 89-90.  For instance, they allow individuals to announce valuations for entire bundles when complementarity is strong.  You choose the bundle: “My house and all its items for three million tokens.”

But your human capital and your personal plans are non-marketable, non-transferable assets that can’t be put in this bundle.  So the incentive is to assemble highly idiosyncratic assets that no one else can quite fit together, and so no one else will wish to buy from you, and then you can announce a low valuation.

If that strategy works, the tax system doesn’t yield enough revenue and furthermore you’ve had to distort your consumption patterns.  If that strategy doesn’t work, someone might buy your life’s belongings/plans from you anyway, leaving you without your beloved customized snowmobile, your assiduously assembled music collection, and what about all those shoes you thought fit only you?

Ex ante, individuals are forced to assume huge, non-diversifiable risk, namely that someone will snatch away their whole “commodity life” from them.  So many of us, even if we could bear the asset loss, just don’t have the time to rebuild that formerly perfect mesh of plans and possessions, the one that took decades to create (think about risk-aversion in terms of time).  Furthermore, what if a wealthy villain or personal enemy wished to threaten to denude you in this manner?  Or what if you simply make a big mistake reporting the value of your bundle?  Isn’t this much much harder than just doing your income taxes?

To protect against these risks, ex ante, people will value their wealth bundles at quite high levels, and the result will be that wealth taxation will be too high.  Since I don’t favor most forms of wealth taxation in the first place, why push for a method that also will tax people on the risk of losing most of their carefully assembled personal wealth and plans?  Is “planning plus complementarity” really something we wish to tax so hard?

Don’t forget the “planning plus complementarity” process as a whole tends to elevate the value of assets, not reduce them.  Posner and Weyl boast that their scheme lowers the value of assets (p.88: “Under our system, the prices of assets would be only a quarter to a half of their current level.”).  Lower asset values may boost turnover, but is it not prima facie evidence that the value of aggregate wealth has gone down?  (I am not convinced by the way, that once lower rates of income taxation are taken into account, that asset prices would in fact be lower in their system.)  Why is that good?

So I wish to announce a high valuation for keeping the current system in lieu of this reform.  My personal plans depend on it.

Addendum: I consider several of Glen’s ideas too much along the lines of what Hayek labeled “rationalist constructivism.”  Here is my earlier post on quadratic voting.

Second addendum: You might instead prefer this method for only a limited set of issues, such as eminent domain.  But then you have to end up taxing wealth values, if only for credibility and future reporting incentives, even when efficiency may dictate simply transferring the resources with compensation.  There just aren’t that many situations where a wealth tax is what you optimally should be seeking to do.  And keep in mind, so often the real preference revelation problem is not for the homeowners, but whether the government really needs your asset or wealth!  Or maybe they are just taking it because they can.

“The New Populism Isn’t About Economics”

That is the title of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one pithy excerpt:

Among emerging economies, the Philippines moved from being an Asian growth laggard into some years of 8 percent growth. Voters responded by electing as president Rodrigo Duterte, one of the most aggressive and authoritarian populists around. In eastern Europe, Poland has been seeing average 4 percent growth for more than 25 years, yet the country has moved in a strongly nationalist direction, flirting with sanctions from the EU for limiting judicial independence. Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and now the Czech Republic all are much wealthier than 20 years ago and mostly have been booming as of late. Yet to varying degrees they too have moved in nationalist, populist and possibly even anti-democratic directions.

And the closer:

So the next time you hear material discontent cited as driving electoral results, just remember that economic data are usually interpreted through a cultural lens.

And yes, I cover New Zealand and the Czech elections too.

Ray Bradbury markets in everything

Ray Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 tells the story of a dystopian future where books have been outlawed and are destroyed by firemen who set them ablaze. But in an ironic twist, Super Terrain, a publisher in France, has created a new edition of Bradbury’s classic that actually requires extreme heat in order to be read.

Jo Frenken shared this video to Instagram showing a prototype copy of the book, which was developed by the Charles Nypels Lab at the Netherlands-based Jan van Eyck Academie—a research institute known for its experiments in materials and media. The pages of the book appear completely blacked-out—like a redacted CIA file—as you flip through them. But when heat is applied, using a flame from a lighter, in this case, the heat-activated ink disappears and the underlying text is revealed.

That is by Andrew Liszewski, via Ted Gioia.

International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics

Replication is critical for scientific progress and integrity but incentives for replication have been low. It’s good news, therefore, that a new journal will be devoted solely to replication research:

The International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics (IREE) is the first journal dedicated to the publication of replication studies based on economic micro-data. Furthermore, IREE publishes synthesizing reviews, micro-data sets and descriptions thereof, and articles dealing with replication methods and the development of standards for replications.

As yet, authors of replication studies, data sets and descriptions had a hard time gaining recognition for their work by citable publications and incentives for conducting these important kinds of work were immensely reduced….IREE provides the platform to authors to be given credit for serious empirical research in economics.

The publication of replication studies often depends on their result….replications usually need to reject the original study to get published whereas a scientific impact is denied for replications confirming original findings. This induces a severe publication bias….Therefore, IREE publishes research independent of the result of the study. The selection of published articles is based on technical and formal criteria but not with regards to the qualitative and quantitative results.

Deaton, Wooldridge, and Easterlin are all involved.

Hat tip: David Roodman on twitter.

Addendum: Also check out the the inaugural Empirical Legal Studies Replication Conference which will publish papers, independent of result, in an edition of the International Review of Law and Economics.

Monday assorted links

1. Performance trends in AI.

2. Bitcoin and the death of the firm?

3. How might Google transform part of Toronto? (NYT)

4. My short podcast with CipherBrief on America’s diminishing economic power and its foreign policy implications.

5. Christopher Balding is more worried yet about Chinese finances.

6. “Universe shouldn’t exist, CERN physicists conclude.

7. Nobel Laureates Stiglitz and Spence to lead/announce new group to make things better.