Zimbabwe Fact of the Day
Zimbabwe continues its descent.
The country’s money is devaluing so fast that you have to lug around plastic bags full of it if you’re doing a small grocery shop. To buy anything bigger, you’ll need to fill a suitcase. …A telephone bill last month – more than 15 million Zimbabwe dollars – would have bought five houses five years ago. Nice houses, in Harare’s rich suburbs.
This week, $15 million is worth just £41 – enough to buy a tank of black-market petrol. Next week – who knows?
Here’s a previous post on Zimbabwe, cadavers for rent. Hat tip to Newmark’s Door.
Does Nation Building Work?
Nation-building Military Occupations by the
United States and Great Britain, 1850-2000
Payne, James. 2006. Does Nation Building Work? The Independent Review. 10 (4).
U.S. Occupations
Austria 1945-1955 success
Cuba 1898-1902 failure
Cuba 1906-1909 failure
Cuba 1917-1922 failure
Dominican Republic 1911-1924 failure
Dominican Republic 1965-1967 success
Grenada 1983-1985 success
Haiti 1915-1934 failure
Haiti 1994-1996 failure
Honduras 1924 failure
Italy 1943-1945 success
Japan 1945-1952 success
Lebanon 1958 failure
Lebanon 1982-1984 failure
Mexico 1914-1917 failure
Nicaragua 1909-1910 failure
Nicaragua 1912-1925 failure
Nicaragua 1926-1933 failure
Panama 1903-1933 failure
Panama 1989-1995 success
Philippines 1898-1946 success
Somalia 1992-1994 failure
South Korea 1945-1961 failure
West Germany 1945-1952 success
British Occupations
Botswana 1886-1966 success
Brunei 1888-1984 failure
Burma (Myanmar) 1885-1948 failure
Cyprus 1914-1960 failure
Egypt 1882-1922 failure
Fiji 1874-1970 success
Ghana 1886-1957 failure
Iraq 1917-1932 failure
Iraq 1941-1947 failure
Jordan 1921-1956 failure
Kenya 1894-1963 failure
Lesotho 1884-1966 failure
Malawi (Nyasaland) 1891-1964 failure
Malaysia 1909-1957 success
Maldives 1887-1976 success
Nigeria 1861-1960 failure
Palestine 1917-1948 failure
Sierra Leone 1885-1961 failure
Solomon Islands 1893-1978 success
South Yemen (Aden) 1934-1967 failure
Sudan 1899-1956 failure
Swaziland 1903-1968 failure
Tanzania 1920-1963 failure
Tonga 1900-1970 success
Uganda 1894-1962 failure
Zambia (N. Rhodesia) 1891-1964 failure
Zimbabwe (S. Rhodesia) 1888-1980 failure
Global Markets in Everything
Surrogate motherhood meets globalization.
When Reshma gives birth next month in this small
Indian town, the newborn will be immediately handed over to its
biological parents, non-resident Indians who live in London and who
have been unable to bear a child on their own. In return for renting
her womb, Reshma will be paid $2,800 – a significant sum by Indian
standards.…"These amounts are still nearly three times cheaper than what surrogacy in the UK would cost us," [the parents] say.
A little strange but I have a lot of respect for the surrogate mother and her husband:
"I have two cherubic children of my own," says
Reshma, who withheld her real name for fear of disapproval by
neighbors. "That couple has none. Imagine how much happiness this baby
will give them."…Reshma’s husband Vinod – not his real name – says
his paltry $50 montly pay as a painter would not be enough to educate
his two children. He says the extra money will allow him to invest in
his children’s education and to buy a new home.
Thanks to Pablo Halkyard for the pointer.
Opposite Day: Axel on the FDA
Cousin Alex says the FDA is paternalistic. Yah, it is paternalistic. Paternalism is good.
You know what would happen without vater FDA? Herr Trudeau sells 1.5 million copies of Natural Cures "They" Don’t Want You to Know About, that’s what happens. When left to their own thinking die volk swarms to an ex-con who has been banned from the airwaves by the FTC for marketing "Japanese" marine coral with claims that it can cure cancer, heart disease, high blood pressure, lupus, and other illness. If it were up to me this guy would be jailed. But the FTC can’t stop him from selling his book. Silly first amendment. Don’t you Americans know the truth is more important than free speech?
Libertarians say how can you trust people to make decisions about toothpaste but not about their own health? Zat is an easy one. No one buys toothpaste out of fear. But sick people don’t think rationally they are emotional they hold out hope, even the kind of hope that "they" don’t want them to know about. Father FDA must protect them.
Libertarians will respond that the tort law protects consumers from fraud. Need I tell you who has the best book on the problems with tort law?
Wolf on the Global Economy
Brad Setser points to Martin Wolf’s extensive powerpoint slides on the global economy.
- The first set covers financial flows to emerging economies and the crises of the past few years.
- The second
covers emerging market (and central) financing of the US current
account deficit and the global savings glut/ investment drought. - The third covers Martin Wolf’s policy recommendations – his suggests for changing the international financial system.
The gap gets smaller
Prayer doesn’t reduce mortality and neither does alcohol. In both cases, more evidence that there is no god.
Judge and Jury: American Tort Law on Trial
My new book, Judge and Jury: American Tort Law on Trial is now out. Click on the ad at right for more information. Written with Eric Helland, Judge and Jury brings together in a popular format much of my research from the past few years on the effect on tort awards of elected judges, jury composition and contingency fees as well as other topics.
Here are some early comments on the book:
"In their pioneering book, Judge and Jury, Helland and Tabarrok are
relentless in their pursuit of hard data to explain the behavior of the
American jury. On a topic on which it is easy to become hyperbolic,
their dispassionate analysis of the effects of race and poverty on jury
behavior is a model for all intelligent discussion of legal reform. The
authors are to be commended for the way in which they confirm some
deep-seated perceptions of runaway juries while debunking other claims
that do not survive their rigorous empirical scrutiny."
–Richard A. Epstein,
James Parker Hall Distinguished Service Professor of Law, University of Chicago Law School
"All too often, the proponents of tort reform have relied upon
anecdote rather than analysis or empirical study to support their
claims. In contrast, Judge and Jury offers solid economic analysis and
empirical study of some very important issues.] Helland and Tabarrok
show that the resolution of a tort claim can importantly depend upon
where the claim is filed, due to differences in jury composition and
whether judges are elected or appointed. They also make a convincing
case that the root of all evils does not lie in contingency fees for
plaintiffs’ lawyers, as many reformers insist. The book should be of
great interest to anyone interest in the U.S. tort system."
–Mark Geistfeld, Crystal Eastman Professor of Law,
New York University School of Law
"Clear, forcefully argued and highly accessible, Judge and Jury makes the perfect introduction to the work of two of today’s most provocative and talked-about empirical legal scholars."
–Walter K. Olson, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute
Are You Boring Me?
Frankly, I could give a few of these out as Christmas presents.
MIT Media Lab researchers are building a device to help autistic people
determine if they’re boring or annoying the person they’re talking to. The
"emotional social intelligence prosthetic device" is a camera that clips on
eyeglasses and feeds images to a small computer that uses image recognition
software to characterize emotions. If the listener doesn’t seem to be engaged,
the device vibrates to alert the wearer.
From David Pescowitz at Boing Boing Blog.
Taxing Families
Libertarians usually point to government as the source of high taxes. But in many developing countries it’s the family that is most taxing. In his amusing account of a "year in Casablanca," The Caliph’s House, Tahir Shah recounts what happens when his workers lost their homes and moved into his palatial estate.
I began to witness firsthand the ancient employment system of the East. It’s sometimes known as "living off Abdul’s job." As soon as someone gets work, everyone else gives up their jobs and leeches off the employed member of the family. The longer you are employed, the more money you need, merely to support the hangers-on. Anyone with a nice home and full-time job has a vast cast of characters living off them.
Before there were governments there were families that taxed (see Schoeck’s classic Envy: A Theory of Social Behavior for "taxation" in primitive societies). Creating a market economy is about much more than eliminating regulation.
Addendum: Michael Greenspan has another nice illustration from Rhodesia.
Is the FDA Safe and Effective?
I will be speaking this Wednesday (March 29) at 6 pm in the back ballroom of Student Union II at GMU on the subject, Is the FDA Safe and Effective?
Pizza and refreshments as well as intellectual wonderment will be served.
Witness to history!
What a game! What a team! What a university!
Final four!!!!!
Thanks to Kevin (and Charles!).
Taxes by the Mile
Fuel-efficient vehicles are cutting into gas tax revenues. As a result, some states are experimenting with per-mile tax systems. In Oregon, an experimental system uses GPS to monitor how many miles a car drives. Drivers are then charged an appropriate road tax when they fuel up.
In this case, leviathan’s hunger has some benefits. The current system breaks miles down into rush hour and non-rush hour which allows for improved congestion pricing. But more generally, there is no reason why the tax, insurance and road pricing systems cannot be fully-integrated. Aaron Edlin and Pinar Karaca-Mandic point out
that tort law does not fully internalize accident costs. A fuel tax
helps but since the externality is
per-mile not per-gallon a per-mile tax is more efficient. Insurance by the mile is also more efficient than the current system which subsidizes heavy users. Finally, GPS can be used to price by the road and not just by the time of day. Indeed, as pricing by the mile/road becomes more common, the idea of private for-profit roads will no longer seem so radical.
Bribery at the UN
The United Nation’s Security Council has 5 permanent members and 10 non-permanent members, the latter are elected from regional groups and serve two year terms. Yesterday Eric Werker presented a fun paper at GMU showing that US foreign aid increases dramatically to countries elected to the Security Council.
The result isn’t that surprising but Werker did a good job of ruling out explanations other than bribery. Foreign aid, for example, increases just as a country joins the council and drops just at it leaves. Foreign aid also increases especially dramatically in important years, as measured by the number of New York Times stories involving the council. Perhaps most interestingly, although US foreign aid is larger for democracies than for autocracies on average, autocracies get bigger increases in aid when they join the council. The result makes a lot of sense. Autocracts can sell their votes more easily than democratically elected leaders (no domestic constituencies to worry about) and transactions costs are lower – the aid goes directly to the vote seller.
AI, Consciousness and Robot Outsourcing
One of my "absurd views" is that the first computer to become conscious was Deep Blue playing against Gary Kasparov in 1997. It only happened for a moment but in one spectacular move Deep Blue performed like no computer ever had before. After the game, Kasparov said he felt a presence behind the machine. He looked frightened.
Ken Rogoff, a top-flight economist and chess prodigy, wonders whether we don’t all have a little something to fear.
But the level that computers have reached already is scary enough.
What’s next? I certainly don’t feel safe as an economics professor! I have no doubt that sometime later this century, one will be able to
buy pocket professors – perhaps with holographic images – as easily as
one can buy a pocket Kasparov chess computer today.
Rogoff thinks that the upheavals caused by cheap AI will be far more important than those caused by low-wage labor from India and China.
…will
artificial intelligence replace the mantra of outsourcing and
manufacturing migration? Chess players already know the answer.
Red Dawn
Brad just doesn’t know right-wing agitprop. My friends walked out, but I exited the theater, pumped my fist in the air and shouted, Wolverines! (That’s when I first knew I was a rather odd Canadian – perhaps this was destiny.)
Comments are open if you have any idea what I am talking about – this will provide a test of Ben Domenech’s thesis. My apologies if you are utterly mystified.