Category: Uncategorized
Pressure
Who would have thought that someone could make a gripping movie about predicting the weather? Nevertheless, Pressure delivers. To be sure, it’s predicting the weather for D-Day. Excellent cast. Hews very close to the truth. The two camps really did divide on theory versus past prediction and the weather was as portrayed. After the war, John F. Kennedy asked Eisenhower what gave the Allies the decisive advantage during the D-Day invasion, Eisenhower replied, “We had better meteorologists than the Germans.”
I agree with Tyler’s earlier review: A truly excellent movie, one of the best of the year. Specifically, it concerns the meteorological forecasts (!) leading up to the D-Day invasion. Thematically, it is about the differences between Americans and Brits, how bureaucracy operates, the nature of leadership, and the proper role of science in government. It is like an old-style Hollywood movie. Most of the action takes place in only a few rooms, and with superb dialogue and performances. Although you all know how D-Day turns out, the movie still generates suspense on some of the major plot points.
Saturday assorted links
1. Possibly AI-written pieces that have won literary awards.
2. HuggingFace co-founder on what happened, very good post.
3. What do private insurers want from a Hormuz agreement?
4. GPT Pro on burrito price worries.
6. Do people listen to female economists more?
7. North Korea might be growing at 3.5% (Bloomberg).
*Restoring Childhood: How to Set Kids Free in the Age of Anxiety*
That is the new book by Peter Gray, and it is very much a whole philosophy of child-rearing and also antidote to the current panic over social media. Excerpt:
In preparation for this chapter, I spent weeks poring over the research literature pretaining to smartphones, social media, and teen mental health. It is clear to me that there is something close to a consensus among scientists most immersed in this research, which includes the following three conclusions: (1) Extensive research refutes the theory that effects of smartphones and social media account for a meaningful portion of the decline in teen mental health in the years following 2010. (2) Smartphones and social media can have both beneficial and harmful effects on teens’ mental health, which tend to cancel out when averaging. (3) Future research should focus on understanding better the ways teens use these tools and how to help them maximize the benefits and minimize the harm.
Note that teen suffering also hit a peak around 1990 by many measures, yet that cannot have been caused by phones or social media. And European teen suicide rates were falling just as those in the United States were rising. This evidence is considered in further detail of course.
Recommended, it is both easy to read and substantive.
What I’ve been reading
1. Mike Jay, Wireheads: An Unnatural History of Technology in the Brain. Much of this story is told through the lens of the accompanying science fiction and non-neuro trends in other parts of science. An excellent book, substantive on every page, and it will make you want to read some of the works he cites.
2. Vasily Grossman, From the Front Line, Stalingrad-Treblinka-Berlin 1941-1945. Self-recommending, the best third of this volume is just stunningly good. You do not have to read the whole thing, as there is some degree of repetition.
3. Forough Farrokhzad, Let Us Believe in the Beginning of the Cold Season. She died in a car crash in 1967 at the age of thirty-three, but it turns out she was an amazing poet. I usually do not enjoy poetry in translation, but this is so fiery and full of passion that I am happy to recommend it. Surely in the original Farsi it is better (and quite different?) yet.
4. André Breton, Nadja. It is short, and fun enough to read. But one learns most books from the past are not masterpieces, and that surrealism as a movement — most of all in painting — was more important than the literary outputs of surrealism. Nadja, to me, sounds like a drag. Which is fine. But. What does Breton really think he is immortalizing here? At the end he writes “Beauty will be CONVULSIVE or not at all.” I do appreciate Breton for his understanding of Mexico, and for his cultivation of Haitian art.
5. Emma Southon, Servus: How Slavery Made the Roman Empire. A very good and aggressively readable book about how terrible slavery was in the Roman Empire. A useful corrective to other sources as well. While my general view is that interpretative disputes over antiquity are difficult to resolve, I find her interpretations more intuitive and more convincing than the other side of the debate.
Friday assorted links
2. “Books that Tyler Cowen probably would like.”
3. The tenure dismissal of Sanjay Reddy (NYT).
4. Dell and Rambachan NBER video on the economics of AI. I have yet to view, but “self-recommending.”
5. Anton Leicht on AI and how the concentration of power will evolve. Very good piece.
6. Universities would prefer not to.
7. Which polities can you really trust?
My excellent Conversation with Julia Ioffe
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is from the episode summary:
Julia joined Tyler to discuss why so many of Russia’s great constructivist painters were women, why the tsarist government established women’s medical courses in 1872, changing attitudes towards abortion and birth control in the 20th century, why the Soviet regime turned prudish, how Khrushchev’s plan to “replace the dead” institutionalized single motherhood, Russian superwomen, why Jewish men were a prized commodity amid rampant antisemitism, the cultural significance of flowers, why a few Russian names still dominate, why Russian women think Western feminists have their priorities backwards, how gender attitudes and autocracy feed into each other, three underrated Russian novels, what she wants to write about next, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: I’m sure you’ve noticed that quite a few American men will marry Russian or Soviet women, but not so many American women want to marry Russian or Soviet men. It’s a kind of market test, right? Why exactly are the men so bad? Why are they such louts? Maybe that’s a rude way to put it, but surely in one’s mind, one asks that question, right?
IOFFE: It’s a question that a lot of us who were living in Moscow in the late aughts and the teens were asking that all the time. I remember a friend of mine, a male Western TV correspondent, saying, “The women are so gorgeous here, but the men are so ugly and unfashionable.” He had lived all over the place and worked all over the place, and he said, “I’ve never seen such disparity,” and it was true.
The women like me, Western women who were living and working in Moscow at the time, said, “We’ll just wait till we get home.” I think it’s because of what I talked about before, or what you and I talked about before, which is that so many men were killed in the first half of the 20th century, and so few demands were placed on them because they were seen as an endangered species, in general. They were a resource to be fought over and protected.
In 1968, when the West was undergoing a sexual revolution, and women were fighting for more rights, more equality, the Soviets were talking about saving the men, protecting the men, and saying, “We’ve done enough for the women, but our men die young.” That’s after a lifetime of alcohol abuse, smoking, being largely irrelevant in the home, and obviously politically, because it’s a totalitarian system, so let’s work on protecting them.
Soviet men, and then Russian men, became these coddled, spoiled children essentially, where on one hand, so little was asked of them that it’s the bigotry of low expectations. So little was asked of them, and very little was expected of them, and they rose to meet those very low expectations.
On top of that, the idea of what made a man a manly man in Russia is he’s physically strong, but he dies a young death, or he dies an early death. He drinks a lot, he smokes a lot, he’s reckless, he’s careless, and takes a lot of risk, and that usually means an early death. If you have fewer men to begin with, and as a Russian woman, you see them dying early, and you’re fighting over them, what is the impetus for men to take care of themselves, to act better, be better, if there’s always going to be a beautiful, super competent woman to take him if you don’t want him?
COWEN: These points you’re raising, historically, do you feel it’s been quite different for Soviet and Russian Jews or the same?
IOFFE: I think it’s a little bit different. The caveat is, and I hate that I have to say this, Jews are people too, and subject to the same social forces that everybody else is, but culturally, Soviet Jews were more educated as a rule, more urban, and culturally came from a very family-centric tradition. Russian women, actually, for all the intense antisemitism in the Soviet Union, in Russia, Jewish men were actually a prized commodity for Russian women.
COWEN: With ethnic Russian women?
IOFFE: Yes. Ethnic Ukrainian women, you name it, because the cultural stereotype was that Jewish men don’t drink, they don’t hit you, they are family-focused, family-oriented, they’re involved fathers, they bring their money home, they don’t waste it at the bar or on bottles of vodka with their buddies. That’s the kind of man you would want as a husband. Ironically, the same polls that will tell you that Russians would want their daughters to marry a Jew will tell you that they don’t want their president to be a Jew.
One of my favorite episodes of the year, interesting throughout, and I very much enjoyed Julia’s book Motherland: A Feminist History of Modern Russia.
Thursday assorted links
2. New publication on AI and institutions. Good people involved.
4. What kind of machine can a book make?
5. Longevity firms push for medical deregulation in Montana (WSJ).
6. OpenAI Economic Research Exchange.
7. Victor Niederhoffer obituary. Do not forget Victor also was a world class checkers player, art collector, and a very good jazz bassist as well (yes I have heard him play) in addition to his other achievements.
Wednesday assorted links
1. A catalog of past AI predictions.
2. Jasmine Sun on why people do not want data centers. And Jasmine Sun on Ezra Klein, on data centers (NYT).
3. A bot running an SF retail boutique? (NYT)
5. On the NYC grocery store plan.
6. New credit card gives you tokens instead of miles.
7. Does AI mean the end of math heroes? Some other heroes too?
Dominant Assurance Contract aka Refund Bonus Explainer
I created the dominant assurance contract aka the refund bonus mechanism in 1998–it’s a mechanism capable of producing some types of public goods privately–in recent years working with Tim Cason and Robertas Zubrickas I’ve put refund bonuses to the test in lab experiments and they work! I’ve written an accessible Refund Bonus Explainer that covers this body of work. Here’s one bit:
The dike is a public good. Once it stands, it protects everyone nearby, and a neighbor who contributed nothing cannot easily be excluded. That property is what makes it hard to finance.
Paul Samuelson defined public goods in 1954, and he was pessimistic about them. Each person does better by understating what the good is worth to him, so it is, in Samuelson’s words, “in the selfish interest of each person to give false signals, to pretend to have less interest in a given collective consumption activity than he really has.” From this he concluded that “no decentralized pricing system can serve to determine optimally these levels of collective consumption.” Public goods, on this view, are what governments are for. Refund bonuses challenge that conclusion.
Read the whole thing and here is my Rent Control Explainer.
Victor Niederhoffer, RIP
In addition to his well-known public roles, he worked very hard to help and befriend me when I was younger. Here are the Google searches for Victor. Less well known about Victor is that he had one of the world’s best collections of private letters. He also once gave me a very nice small painting by Jack Savitzky, for which I remain grateful.
The Value of Behavioral Policies
Behavioral interventions have become central to modern public policy, but their empirical promise remains contested because estimated treatment effects often appear small. We argue that a policy response is economically meaningful only relative to the response generated by alternative policies. We assemble more than 1,200 estimates from over 600 studies comparing “nudges” and traditional price interventions in the markets for cigarettes, alcohol, influenza vaccination, electricity, and residential water. Translating nudge effects into equivalent price changes, we find that behavioral interventions often correspond to enormous fiscal interventions, from an 11% tax on electricity to a 100% subsidy on influenza vaccinations. Nudges are also more cost-effective than price instruments in all markets, but cost-effectiveness does not predict the welfare ranking of policies. Using a behavioral extension of the Marginal Value of Public Funds, we show that nudges have high welfare returns at the margin, while price instruments often generate larger total surplus at scale.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform
We estimate the economic value of zoning reform in São Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction along transportation corridors. Developers increased filings for multifamily construction in blocks affected by the reform, leading to more housing supply and lower housing prices in neighborhoods that allow more densification. Our equilibrium model of housing markets estimates an aggregate 1.6 percent increase in housing stock and a 0.4 percent reduction in prices, resulting in large housing wealth transfers from current to future homeowners. The reform produced welfare gains of 0.65 percent of city GDP, mostly due to developer profits and consumer gains from the newly built environment.
That is from the AEA policy journal, by Santosh Anagol, Fernando Ferreira, and Jonah Rexer.
Tuesday assorted links
Emergent Ventures winners, 57th cohort
Oisin O’Gorman, 15, Dublin, misinformation and fakes.
Karsen Lee Wahal, Stanford, is AI killing the web?, and measuring media slant.
Davy Deng, with Claire Wang (previous winner), whole brain emulation, MIT.
Enerj Grmek, 16, Ljubljana, privacy.
Vladimir Shmelev, Ukraine, Ukrainian children for relief trips to Montenegro.
Nik Verma, Chicago, a legal framework for AI agents.
Emirhan Demir and Çınar Yıldırım, Istanbul area, 19, protection against AI agents.
Midhat Doruk, 14, Ankara, longevity, biology, and skin cosmetics.
Burak Yilmaz, 17, Diyarbarkir, Turkey, browser-native authentication.
Lloyd Strickland, London, to publish the remaining Leibniz papers, including on computation.
Abdul Quyum, 15, Perth, organizing information and data.
Catharine Young, podcast on women in science, science communication tranche, Cambridge/DC.
How does the market regard stablecoins?
We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. We do so under a framework in which a representative investor allocates liquidity across stablecoin deposits in lending pools and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). Our model delivers three main predictions: (i) the stablecoin deposit premium co-moves with the Treasury premium when investors value the safety and liquidity services of stablecoins; (ii) increases in Treasury supply reduce the stablecoin deposit premium; and (iii) drops in the perceived safety and liquidity of stablecoin deposits (e.g., due to de-pegs or hacker attacks) reduce their premium. Using granular data from hundreds of DeFi pools spanning multiple protocols, tokens, and blockchains, we find evidence supporting these predictions. Investors treat stablecoin deposits as money-like instruments that are borderless and permissionless, yet as fragile as other forms of privately produced safe assets.
That is from a new NBER working paper by