Protection against asteriod strikes

I have some bad news, fellow Earthlings: There is a newly discovered asteroid, called 2024 YR4, headed for our planet. Fortunately, the risk is neither great nor urgent. The chance of impact, which would happen on Dec. 22, 2032, is estimated at only about 2.3%.

The worst-case scenario, though not world-ending, is still horrific. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 330 feet long, and its impact could devastate a major city or, through a tsunami, coastline. For purposes of contrast, the space object that hit Siberia in 1908 is estimated to have been 130 feet long, and it decimated almost 800 square miles of forest. Furthermore, an asteroid strike today could cause a chemical, gas or nuclear accident…

A possibility of 2.3% is not as low as it might sound at first. The chance of drawing three of a kind in a standard five-card poker game, for example, is a about 2.9%. Three of a kind is hardly an unprecedented event.

That probability number keeps on skipping around, so apologies if that is obsolete by the time you are reading this.  Here is the rest of my Bloomberg column.  And I thank Alex T. for drawing initial attention to this topic, including my own.

The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance

We create a novel reign-level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers’ cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom variation in ruler ability. We code the degree of blood relationship between the parents of rulers, which also reflects “hidden” layers of inbreeding from previous generations. The coefficient of inbreeding is a strong predictor of ruler ability, and the corresponding instrumental variable results imply that ruler ability had a sizeable effect on the performance of states and their borders. This supports the view that “leaders made history,” shaping the European map until its consolidation into nation states. We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state’s performance.

By Sebastian Ottinger and Nico Voigtländer, from Econometrica.  Here are less gated versions.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The exhaustion of rents

A computer expert who has battled for a decade to recover a £600m bitcoin fortune he believes is buried in a council dump in south Wales is considering buying the site so he can hunt for the missing fortune.

James Howells lost a high court case last month to force Newport city council to allow him to search the tip to retrieve a hard drive he says contains the bitcoins.

The council has since announced plans to close and cap the site, which would almost certainly spell the end of any lingering hopes of reaching the bitcoins. The authority has secured planning permission for a solar farm on part of the land.

Here is the full story, via Michael Rosenwald.  It is of course amazing that the local authority owning the dump has no interest in recovering the money for itself.

Monday assorted links

1. One way the demand for donkeys and horses might rise (speculative).

2. Is France the anti-frontier?

3. “We found that extreme temperatures and added precipitation each independently amplified social-media activity, effects that persisted within individuals.”  Big effects.

4. AI art at auction, at Christie’s.  The Holly Herndon is a bargain, and will go for well over its estimate.

5. Cass Sunstein, What are We in the Midst Of?  (All of those?)

6. “Marketers need to be writing for AI” (Bloomberg)

7. Times of London resurrects its “Best books of the year” Sunday feature, the best feature of an excellent newspaper.

8. I guess since the CDC deleted the information on cat to human avian flu transmission, it isn’t true? (NYT)

9. The Anthropic Economic Index.  And the related research paper.

Dwarkesh’s Question

One question I had for you while we were talking about the intelligence stuff was, as a scientist yourself, what do you make of the fact that these things have basically the entire corpus of human knowledge memorized and they haven’t been able to make a single new connection that has led to a discovery? Whereas if even a moderately intelligent person had this much stuff memorized, they would notice — Oh, this thing causes this symptom. This other thing also causes this symptom. There’s a medical cure right here.

Shouldn’t we be expecting that kind of stuff?

It’s a very good question. In 2023, I quipped, “I think they have, we just haven’t asked them.” Maybe, but less clear today. Dwarkesh reports that there have been no good answers.

Niall Ferguson on world music

Worlds collide, as Niall is interviewed (very effectively) in Songlines magazine, and yes I am a loyal subscriber.  Excerpt:

As part of the Empire series, Ferguson also went to West Africa and filmed in Sierra Leone and, subsequently, Ghana and Senegal. He regrets not seeing Youssou N’Dour, who wasn’t going to be on stage until 2am, as they had to be up early to film. At the same time, he says he got turned on to Amadou & Mariam and Tinariwen. “But Africa’s such a vast continent you’ll never know all the music. [BBC] Radio 3 is often throwing things at me that I’m not expecting. Thank God the BBC is willing to play unusual and esoteric African music, and I’ve benefitted hugely from that eclectic programming.”

He is quick to mention Sierra Leone’s Refugee All Stars, who were formed by a group of Guinean refugees during the civil war in Sierra Leone. “Their song ‘Living Like a Refugee’ is an anthem for our times,” he says…

It’s such a gift to listen to [the] music of Tinariwen or Sierra Leone’s Refugee All Stars and enjoy it and not think ‘I’m now listening to African music.’ It’s just as life-affirming as Mozart.”

Recommended.

It’s later than you think

Here is a short essay by Hollis Robbins on AI and education, excerpt:

Every faculty member should begin to write a detailed memo specifying the following: “What specific knowledge do I possess that AGI does not? What unique insights or capabilities can I offer that exceed AGI systems? Which students, and in which topics, would benefit enough to pay to learn from me and why?” Faculty who cannot produce this memo with concrete, defensible answers have no place in the institution. There is no middle ground.

Every dean must immediately audit their course catalog against one criterion: what advanced knowledge or skills does this course offer that AGI cannot replicate? Each course must demonstrate specific knowledge transfer or skill development that exceeds AGI capabilities. It will become obvious that the highest value courses are those aligned with specific faculty expertise. General education courses focused on basic knowledge transfer become indefensible. If the information is general enough to be called “general education,” AGI can deliver it more effectively than any human instructor. This will eliminate most of the current curriculum.

Universities will retain faculty in three categories: those advancing original research beyond AGI capabilities, those who teach the use of advanced equipment and sophisticated physical skills, and those handling previously undiscovered source materials or developing novel interpretations that outstrip AGI’s analysis. In the sciences, this means laboratory-based faculty who validate AGI-generated research proposals and offer advanced hands-on training with advanced equipment. In engineering and the arts, it’s faculty who guide students in high-level physical manipulation, augmented by AI tools. In the humanities, it’s scholars working with newly discovered primary sources, untranslated manuscripts, or archaeological evidence not yet processed by AI, as well as those creating fundamentally new interpretive frameworks that transcend AGI’s pattern-recognition capacities.

The curriculum narrows dramatically. Most lecture courses disappear. What remains are advanced research seminars where faculty share findings from new source materials or original experiments, intensive laboratory and studio sessions for hands-on skills, and research validation practicums where students learn to test AGI hypotheses. This represents a 60-70% reduction in current faculty positions, with remaining roles requiring fundamentally different capabilities than traditional academic work.

There is more of interest at the link.

New York City fact and poetic passage of the day

If the coastline of the New York Harbor region were stretched out, it would be longer than the state of California.  New York City’s waterfront is bigger than those of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Boston combined.  As vast as it is, the area that is officially known as the New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary is even more staggering in its complexity, encompassing such a concatenation of inlets, margins, banks, strands, runnels, rivers, reefs, rivulets, coves, creeks, and kills; of brooks, basins, bays, shoals, shores, islands, islets, and peninsulas, of jetties, bluffs, heights, scallops, spits, crags, beaches, reaches, bends, bights, channels, sandbars, sounds, and points, as to be virtually unmatched in the United States.

That is from the new and fun book by Russell Shorto, Taking Manhattan: The Extraordinary Events that Created New York and Shaped America.

Sunday assorted links

1. Quantum technologies for health care? (speculative!)

2. ChatGPT comments on Tanner Greer.

3. Mercatus looking to hire additional AI policy scholars.

4. “Our results suggest that the recent fertility slowdown in the U.S. is not primarily due to higher female incomes.

5. “The owner of the theatre I’ve performed at a few times invited me to put on my own economics-themed comedy variety show :). The first one will take place February 17 at 7pm: EconLOL, the world’s first, best, and only economics-themed comedy variety show. There will also be a livestream.”

6. Problems in the Netherlands.

7. John Cochrane on Trump tax proposals.

Minimum Wages, Efficiency, and Welfare

Recently Alex raised some doubts, to say the least, about the Card-Krueger view of minimum wage hikes.  Well, it turns out there is more, and a new consensus is on the verge of forming.  Here are David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff, and Simon Mongey, from a new Econometrica piece:

Many argue that minimum wages can prevent efficiency losses from monopsony power. We assess this argument in a general equilibrium model of oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms. We decompose welfare gains into an efficiency component that captures reductions in monopsony power and a redistributive component that captures the way minimum wages shift resources across people. The minimum wage that maximizes the efficiency component of welfare lies below $8.00 and yields gains worth less than 0.2% of lifetime consumption. When we add back in Utilitarian redistributive motives, the optimal minimum wage is $11 and redistribution accounts for 102.5% of the resulting welfare gains, implying offsetting efficiency losses of −2.5%. The reason a minimum wage struggles to deliver efficiency gains is that with realistic firm productivity dispersion, a minimum wage that eliminates monopsony power at one firm causes severe rationing at another. These results hold under an EITC and progressive labor income taxes calibrated to the U.S. economy.

Here is the link to Econometrica.  Here is an earlier NBER working paper version.

USPS as a failed sovereign wealth fund

The U.S. government has a direct stake in natural resource wealth, collecting royalties from the extraction of minerals on federal land. In a good year, these royalties (which are dispersed to states) total around $20 billion, although the historic annual average is closer to $10 billion.

These figures pale in comparison to what is arguably America’s largest commercial endeavor: the U.S. Postal Service (USPS). The USPS relies on its vast network of land, buildings, trucks, and processing machines to generate about $80 billion in revenue per year. The obvious problem is that, unlike with Norway and Saudi Arabia’s black gold, the USPS can’t turn a profit on its large asset holdings. The agency lost $9.5 billion on net in FY 2024, and has burned through $100 billion over the past fifteen years…

To sum up: the U.S. isn’t Norway nor Saudi Arabia. Our largest asset-rich enterprise is really bad at making money and channeling investments to productive uses. And, it is for lack of trying; the USPS can do a far better job generating a return on assets such as property.

Here is the full Substack by Ross Marchand.

Saturday assorted links

1. Long-form interview with Cesar Gaviria, Colombia’s reforming president.

2. Among the Post-Feminists.

3. Both AI and I had a role in this time travel research paper story.

4. Knausgaard owns a copy of Parfit, and does not tie his sneaker laces.

5. Shakespeare the economist.

6. “Be it resolved that the California Faculty Association will fight to protect academic labor from the incursion of AI…”  Good luck people!

7. Legal roadblocks in the path of Trump.

8. The great Donald Shoup has passed away.

9. Acemoglu on a bunch of stuff (FT).

The Licensing Racket

I review a very good new book on occupational licensing, The Licensing Racket by Rebecca Haw Allensworth in the WSJ.

Most people will concede that licensing for hair braiders and interior decorators is excessive while licensing for doctors, nurses and lawyers is essential. Hair braiders pose little to no threat to public safety, but subpar doctors, nurses and lawyers can ruin lives. To Ms. Allensworth’s credit, she asks for evidence. Does occupational licensing protect consumers? The author focuses on the professional board, the forgotten institution of occupational licensing.

Governments enact occupational-licensing laws but rarely handle regulation directly—there’s no Bureau of Hair Braiding. Instead, interpretation and enforcement are delegated to licensing boards, typically dominated by members of the profession. Occupational licensing is self-regulation. The outcome is predictable: Driven by self-interest, professional identity and culture, these boards consistently favor their own members over consumers.

Ms. Allensworth conducted exhaustive research for “The Licensing Racket,” spending hundreds of hours attending board meetings—often as the only nonboard member present. At the Tennessee board of alarm-system contractors, most of the complaints come from consumers who report the sort of issues that licensing is meant to prevent: poor installation, code violations, high-pressure sales tactics and exploitation of the elderly. But the board dismisses most of these complaints against its own members, and is far more aggressive in disciplining unlicensed handymen who occasionally install alarm systems. As Ms. Allensworth notes, “the board was ten times more likely to take action in a case alleging unlicensed practice than one complaining about service quality or safety.”

She finds similar patterns among boards that regulate auctioneers, cosmetologists and barbers. Enforcement efforts tend to protect turf more than consumers. Consumers care about bad service, not about who is licensed, so take a guess who complains about unlicensed practitioners? Licensed practitioners. According to Ms. Allensworth, it was these competitor-initiated cases, “not consumer complaints alleging fraud, predatory sales tactics, and graft,” where boards gave the stiffest penalties.

You might hope that boards that oversee nurses and doctors would prioritize patient safety, but Ms. Allensworth’s findings show otherwise. She documents a disturbing pattern of boards that have ignored or forgiven egregious misconduct, including nurses and physicians extorting sex for prescriptions, running pill mills, assaulting patients under anesthesia and operating while intoxicated.

Read the whole thing.

How effective was pandemic aid?

We use an instrumental-variables estimator reliant on variation in congressional representation to analyze the macroeconomic effects of federal aid to state and local governments across all four major pieces of COVID-19 response legislation. Through December 2022, we estimate that the federal government allocated $603,000 for each state or local government job-year preserved. Our baseline confidence interval allows us to rule out estimates smaller than $220,400. Our estimates of effects on aggregate income and output are centered on zero and imply modest if any spillover effects onto the broader economy.

That is from a new paper by Jeffrey Clemens, Philip Hoxie, and Stan Veuger.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.