The New FDA and the Regulation of Laboratory Developed Tests

The FDA under President Trump and new FDA head Martin Makary should rapidly reverse the FDA’s powergrab on laboratory developed tests. To recap, laboratory developed tests (LDTs) are the kind your doctor orders, they are a service not a product and are not sold directly to patients. Congress has never given the FDA the authority to regulate LDTs. Indeed, in 2015, Paul Clement, the former US Solicitor General under George W. Bush, and Laurence Tribe, a leading liberal constitutional lawyer, wrote an article that rejected the FDA’s claims writing that the “FDA’s assertion of authority over laboratory-developed testing services is clearly foreclosed by the FDA’s own authorizing statute” and “by the broader statutory context.”

Moreover, in addition to legal reasons there are sound public policy reasons to reject FDA regulation of LDTs. Lab developed tests have never been FDA regulated, except briefly during the pandemic when the FDA used the declaration of emergency to issue so-called “guidance documents” saying that any SARS-COV-II test had to be pre-approved by the FDA. Thus, the FDA reversed the logic of emergency. In ordinary times, pre-approval was not necessary but when speed was of the essence it became necessary to get FDA pre-approval. The FDA’s pre-approval process slowed down testing in the United States and it wasn’t until after the FDA lifted its restrictions in March that tests from the big labs became available.

In a remarkably prescient passage, Clement and Tribe (2015, p. 18) had warned of exactly this kind of delay:

The FDA approval process is protracted and not designed for the rapid clearance of tests. Many clinical laboratories track world trends regarding infectious diseases ranging from SARS to H1N1 and Avian Influenza. In these fast-moving, life-or-death situations, awaiting the development of manufactured test kits and the completion of FDA’s clearance procedures could entail potentially catastrophic delays, with disastrous consequences for patient care.

We are seeing the same kind of FDA-caused delay for tests for bird-flu.

Moreover, unlike some of the proposals associated with incoming HHS head Robert Kennedy, reversing the FDA on lab-developed tests has significant support from a wide-variety of experts. Here, for example, is the American Hospital Association:

…we strongly believe that the FDA should not apply its device regulations to hospital and health system LDTs. These tests are not devices; rather, they are diagnostic tools developed and used in the context of patient care. As such, regulating them using the device regulatory framework would have an unquestionably negative impact on patients’ access to essential testing. It would also disrupt medical innovation in a field demonstrating tremendous benefits to patients and providers.

The Trump administration has a number of options:

…the LDT Final Rule was promulgated in time to escape Congressional Review Act scrutiny; however, the executive branch and a Republican-controlled Congress have other tools to limit or vitiate FDA’s authority. These include, in no particular order:

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) could revoke the LDT Final Rule. The recission of a rule is treated the same as the promulgation of a new rule. If HHS revokes the final rule, the cases will likely be dismissed as moot. The timing of such action is uncertain at this time.

FDA could extend or revise its policies of enforcement discretion. LDTs are currently subject to FDA’s phaseout policy which has five stages, the last of which begins in May 2028. Specific categories of IVDs will continue under an enforcement discretion policy indefinitely as described in the preamble to the final rule. HHS could quickly issue such a revised policy or policies without prior public comment if it determines such policy meets the threshold in 21 CFR 10.115(g)(2).

Congress could act. With a Republican-controlled House and Senate to start the new Trump administration, there is a chance that efforts to legislate the regulation of LDTs could be reignited. Based on prior congressional efforts, it is likely that such legislation would place LDTs under control by CMS and CLIA, rather than require LDTs to comply with FDA requirements.

HHS could let the litigation continue. The new administration may view the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas to be sympathetic to the Plaintiffs’ arguments and therefore proceed unabridged assuming the final rule will be struck-down, if that is indeed the deregulatory objective of the new administration.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) could act concerning the litigation. DOJ options are constrained by ethics rules but DOJ could request to amend its filings, pause the case pending rule-making proceedings, or take other actions intended to stall or moot the litigation in a deregulatory fashion.

Year-end CWT episode with Jeff Holmes

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is a short summary:

On this special year-in-review episode, Tyler and producer Jeff Holmes look back on the past year in the show and more, including covering the most popular and underrated episodes, fielding listener questions, reviewing Tyler’s pop culture picks from 2014, mulling over ideas for what to name CWT fans, and more.

As for an excerpt:

HOLMES: Moving on to underrated episodes, episodes that weren’t necessarily breaking download records but are still very, very good. You could think of them as a personal favorite. I’ve got my picks. Do you want to throw out a couple?

COWEN: One underrated episode was Masaaki Suzuki because most people don’t know enough about Bach to really love what he said. Plus, he had an accent; that may hurt downloads a bit. But that one, I was very fond of. Fareed Zakaria, you got to see the real Fareed. Even his son loved the episode. I don’t know how many downloads it got, but it has to be underrated. Michael Nielsen. Most are underrated. Tom Tugendhat, who did not make it to be head of the Conservative Party, but someday still might and certainly ought to be.

HOLMES: Yes, those are good picks. Masaaki Suzuki was a fan mention as well, a favorite of my wife’s, so check that one out if you haven’t. I would also throw out Stephen Kotkin, so pretty recent episode. Kotkin performed very well.

COWEN: That’s one of the best episodes of all time.

HOLMES: It clearly just established itself in the pantheon. Think about Lazarus Lake in the past, or Richard Prum, which were some of my favorites. Just as soon as you listen to it, it’s a clear favorite. If you check out the YouTube comments, many people are commenting that it’s their favorite Stephen Kotkin interview.

COWEN: And people are still listening, so that will climb in the numbers. Paula Byrne was a tremendous episode.

And this:

COWEN: We’re pleasing people too much. Is that the lesson?

Recommended.  And who else would you all like to see as guests?

Is academic writing getting harder to read?

To track academic writing over time, The Economist analysed 347,000 PhD abstracts published between 1812 and 2023. The dataset was produced by the British Library and represents a majority of English-language doctoral theses awarded by British universities. We reviewed each abstract using the Flesch reading-ease test, which measures sentence and word length to gauge readability. A score of 100 roughly indicates passages can be understood by someone who has completed fourth grade in America (usually aged 9 or 10), while a score lower than 30 is considered very difficult to read.  An average New York Times article scores around 50 and a CNN 
article around 70. This article scores 41…

We found that, in every discipline, the abstracts have become harder to read over the past 80 years. The shift is most stark in the humanities and social sciences (see chart), with average Flesch scores falling from around 37 in the 1940s to 18 in the 2020s. From the 1990s onwards, those fields went from being substantially more readable than the natural sciences—as you might expect—to as complicated. Ms Louks’s abstract had a reading-ease rating of 15, still more readable than a third of those analysed in total.

Here is more from The Economist, via the excellent Samir Varma.

EU facts of the day

No huge surprises here, but it is getting worse yet:

Official statistics show Germany’s birth rate fell to 1.35 children per woman in 2023, below the UN’s “ultra-low” threshold of 1.4 — characterising a scenario where falling birth rates become tough to reverse.

Estonia and Austria also passed under the 1.4 threshold, joining the nine EU countries — including Spain, Greece and Italy — that in 2022 had fertility rates below 1.4 children per woman.

With young people reaching milestones, such as buying a house, later in life, the average age of EU women at childbirth rose to 31.1 years in 2023, a year later than a decade ago.

…Austria reported a fall to 1.32 children per woman in 2023, down from 1.41 in the previous year. In Estonia, the rate hit 1.31 in 2023, down from 1.41 in the previous year.

Birth rates have fallen across Europe — even in countries such as Finland, Sweden and France, where family-friendly policies and greater gender equality had previously helped boost the number of babies. In Finland, the birth rate was above the EU average until 2010, but it dropped to 1.26 in 2023, the lowest since the record began in 1776, according to official data.

France had the highest birth rate at 1.79 children per woman in 2022, but the national figures showed it dropped to 1.67 last year, the lowest on record.

Here is more from the FT.

Tuesday assorted links

1. Why is Trieste doing such a good job at mental health services? (FT)

2. We are losing squirrel mobility.  However Austan Goolsbee cautions us.

3. Claude analyzes this year’s CWTs.

4. More on the new Kiwi cosmology claims.

5. The economics of the Panama Canal.

6. Do all NBA teams play the same way?

7. 17 video sessions from the Progress Studies conference, very good people and talks.

8. More Anton Korinek on LLMs and reasoning.

What I’ve been reading

Emily Nussbaum, Cue the Sun! The Invention of Reality TV.  Despite its excellent reviews, I resisted buying this book for a while, because most books on TV are not good.  It is intrinsically difficult to write about the medium, and also many of the people who want to just aren’t that smart.  But the Nussbaum book is a true winner, the Candid Camera chapter alone makes it worth it.  Did you know that Richard Lewis was on the show at age 16?  Recommended, both for its entertainment and its substance value.

Africa: the Definitive Visual History of a Continent, Penguin Random House.  One of my favorite picture books of all time.  It teaches the broader history of Africa by region rather than by country.  First-rate maps and photos throughout.

Rose Lane Says: Thoughts on Race, Liberty, and Equality, 1942-1945.  A hitherto little-known corner of libertarian thought, these short essays are very good and could be a useful tonic for some of what has gone wrong.  Edited by David T. Beito and Marcus Witcher.

Emily Herring, Herald of a Restless World: How Henri Bergson Brought Philosophy to the People.  It is good to see more on Bergson in English.  I had not known that the best man at his wedding was Marcel Proust (they were cousins by marriage and Proust was not yet famous).  Still, the book did not convince me that I have been underrating Bergson.

John Callanan, Man-Devil: The Mind and Times of Bernard Mandeville, The Wickedest Man in Europe, is a good treatment of an underrated and still under-read Dutch thinker.

Marshall B. Reinsdorf and Louise Sheiner, The Measure of Economics: Measuring Productivity in an Age of Technological Change, is a very useful and well-reasoned book.

Ann Schmiesing, The Brothers Grimm: A Biography fleshes out of our knowledge of the German Romantic period.

Of interest to some is Oliver Keenan, Why Aquinas Matters Now.

The importance of transportation for productivity

We quantify the aggregate, regional and sectoral impacts of transportation productivity growth on the US economy over the period 1947-2017. Using a multi-region, multi-sector model that explicitly captures produced transportation services as a key input to interregional trade, we find that the calibrated change in transportation productivity had a sizable impact on aggregate welfare, magnified by a factor of 2.3 compared to its sectoral share in GDP. The amplification mechanism results from the complementarity between transport services and tradable goods, interacting with sectoral and spatial linkages. The geographical implications are highly uneven, with the West and Southwest benefiting the most from market access improvements while the Northeast experiences a decline. Sectoral impacts are largest in transportation-intensive activities like agriculture, mining and heavy manufacturing. Our results demonstrate the outsized and heterogeneous impact of the transportation sector in shaping US economic activity through specialization and spatial transformation.

That is from a recent NBER working paper by A. Kerem Coşar, Sophie Osotimehin & Latchezar Popov.

Monday assorted links

1. The World Bank is backing mega-dams again.

2. Good review of the new McCartney biography.

3. Syllabi of great stuff.

4. Pick-up truck as Pakistani status symbol.

5. “We’re building Retainit, an AI-powered game for the podcasts you’re already listening to.

We’d love to hear whether CWT listeners enjoy this AI-hosted game show for the Stephen Kotkin episode. Beta users seem to love this feature, but we’d like to gather a lot more feedback!

Our mobile app goes live in public beta next month.  Our goal is to build a game that (i) helps avid podcast listeners remember 10x more from podcasts and (ii) is more fun & addictive than Candy Crush.”

6. Ideological bias in immigration studies.

7. Cook Islands plan break with New Zealand.

8. Grok estimates the impact of various economists.

9. “Roy, undeterred, pointed out that the revised legislation Musk and Trump had trumpeted as an improvement, while vastly shorter in length, didn’t actually spend any less money than the original deal.” (WSJ)