Tuesday assorted links

1. Profile of Jennifer Harris, “Queen Bee” of Bidenomics? (NYT)

2. “1982 was a pivotal year for science-fiction and horror cinema. Eight beloved movies — “E.T.,” “Tron,” “Star Trek: Wrath of Khan,” “Conan the Barbarian,” “Blade Runner,” “Poltergeist,” “The Thing” and “Mad Max: The Road Warrior” — were released within six weeks.” Link here NYT.

3. EA vs. Progress Studies?

4. “As a percentage of annual income, Canadians have more mortgage debt than Americans had total household debt just before the GFC.

5. The changes to the California AI bill.

6. Bird flu update (NYT).

Are we overestimating the foreign-born population by about 2 million?

It seems so, here is one study from the Chicago Fed, by Kristin Butcher, Lucas Cain, Camilo Garcia-Jimeno, and Ryan Perry:

Standard estimates based on the main household survey used to shed light on labor markets—the Current Population Survey (CPS)—suggest that after a significant drop during the pandemic, recent rapid growth has brought the foreign-born population back to, or above, levels predicted by the pre-pandemic trend. However, we document that the weighting factors used to make the CPS nationally representative have recently displayed some unusual movements and conclude that standard estimates of the foreign-born population may currently be too high. We also show that recent labor market indicators are inconsistent with increased foreign-born induced slack.

Ive also read some privately-produced Zonda research, with a letter from the U.S. Census (neither on-line), basically supporting this conclusion, in the range of 1.7 million to 2.2 million.  So the current foreign-born population in the U.S. isn’t near as unprecedented as some people would like you to believe.

Extraordinary Labor Market Developments and the 2022-23 Disinflation

From a new NBER working paper by Steven J. Davis:

Two extraordinary U.S. labor market developments facilitated the sharp disinflation in 2022-23 without raising the unemployment rate. First, pandemic-driven infection worries and social distancing intentions caused a sizable drag on labor force participation that began to reverse in the first quarter of 2022, and perhaps earlier. As the reversal unfolded, it raised labor supply and reduced wage growth. Second, the pandemic-instigated shift to work from home (WFH) raised the amenity value of employment in many jobs and for many workers. This development lowered wage-growth pressures along the transition path to a new equilibrium with pay packages that recognized higher remote work levels and their benefits to workers. Surveys of business executives imply that the shift to WFH lowered average wage growth by two percentage points from spring 2021 to spring 2023. A direct inspection finds that average real wage growth from 2021 Q1 to 2024 Q1 in the U.S. economy was at least 3.5 to 4.4 ppts below the path suggested by pre-pandemic experience. This large shortfall in real wage growth aligns well with the interpretation of the 2022-23 disinflation offered here.

Of course this is an attempt to answer the question “why didn’t we have a recession?

Claude 3 for SCOTUS?

I would vote to confirm:

I decided to do a little more empirical testing of AI’s legal ability. Specifically, I downloaded the briefs in every Supreme Court merits case that has been decided so far this Term, inputted them into Claude 3 Opus (the best version of Claude), and then asked a few follow-up questions. (Although I used Claude for this exercise, one would likely get similar results with GPT-4.)

The results were otherworldly. Claude is fully capable of acting as a Supreme Court Justice right now. When used as a law clerk, Claude is easily as insightful and accurate as human clerks, while towering over humans in efficiency.

Let’s start with the easiest thing I asked Claude to do: adjudicate Supreme Court cases. Claude consistently decides cases correctly. When it gets the case “wrong”—meaning, decides it differently from how the Supreme Court decided it—its disposition is invariably reasonable…

Of the 37 merits cases decided so far this Term,1 Claude decided 27 in the same way the Supreme Court did.2 In the other 10 (such as Campos-Chaves), I frequently was more persuaded by Claude’s analysis than the Supreme Court’s. A few of the cases Claude got “wrong” were not Claude’s fault, such as DeVillier v. Texas, in which the Court issued a narrow remand without deciding the question presented.

Although I’ve heard concerns that AI would be “woke,” Claude is studiously moderate.

Here is much more from Adam Unikovsky.  A lot of people are still in denial, or not far enough along to even count as “denying.”

Monday assorted links

1. The publishing world is following in the footsteps of GOAT (NYT).

2. “most of the whistle-blowers I talked to did not see ethicists as their friends or allies…

3. Shakespeare wrote Shakespeare.

4. “Individuals who are unmarried and not in relationships at age 24 are extremely optimistic about the probability of having children, while married individuals have very accurate beliefs.

5. Human chain to move the books.

6. Louise Perry on eugenics.

7. The costs of RHLF are significant.

The Pentagon’s Anti-Vax Campaign

During the pandemic it was common for many Americans to discount or even disparage the Chinese vaccines. In fact, the Chinese vaccines such as Coronavac/Sinovac were made quickly and in large quantities and they were effective. The Chinese vaccines saved millions of lives. The vaccine portfolio model that the AHT team produced, as well as common sense, suggested the value of having a diversified portfolio. That’s why we recommended and I advocated for including a deactivated vaccine in the Operation Warp Speed mix or barring that for making an advance deal on vaccine capacity with China. At the time, I assumed that the disparaging of Chinese vaccines was simply an issue of national pride or bravado during a time of fear. But it turns out that in other countries, the Pentagon ran a disinformation campaign against the Chinese vaccines.

Reuters: At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. military launched a secret campaign to counter what it perceived as China’s growing influence in the Philippines, a nation hit especially hard by the deadly virus.

The clandestine operation has not been previously reported. It aimed to sow doubt about the safety and efficacy of vaccines and other life-saving aid that was being supplied by China, a Reuters investigation found. Through phony internet accounts meant to impersonate Filipinos, the military’s propaganda efforts morphed into an anti-vax campaign.

… Tailoring the propaganda campaign to local audiences across Central Asia and the Middle East, the Pentagon used a combination of fake social media accounts on multiple platforms to spread fear of China’s vaccines among Muslims at a time when the virus was killing tens of thousands of people each day. A key part of the strategy: amplify the disputed contention that, because vaccines sometimes contain pork gelatin, China’s shots could be considered forbidden under Islamic law.

…To implement the anti-vax campaign, the Defense Department overrode strong objections from top U.S. diplomats in Southeast Asia at the time, Reuters found. Sources involved in its planning and execution say the Pentagon, which ran the program through the military’s psychological operations center in Tampa, Florida, disregarded the collateral impact that such propaganda may have on innocent Filipinos.

“We weren’t looking at this from a public health perspective,” said a senior military officer involved in the program. “We were looking at how we could drag China through the mud.”

Frankly, this is sickening. The Pentagon’s anti-vax campaign has undermined U.S. credibility on the global stage and eroded trust in American institutions, and it will complicate future public health efforts. US intelligence agencies should be banned from interfering with or using public health as a front.

Moreover, there was a better model. It’s often forgotten but the elimination of smallpox from the planet, one of humanities greatest feats, was a global effort spearheaded by the United States and….the Soviet Union.

…even while engaged in a pitched battle for influence across the globe, the Soviet Union and the United States were able to harness their domestic and geopolitical self-interests and their mutual interest in using science and technology to advance human development and produce a remarkable public health achievement.

We could have taken a similar approach with China during the COVID pandemic.

More generally, we face global challenges, from pandemics to climate change to artificial intelligence. Addressing these challenges will require strategic international cooperation. This isn’t about idealism; it’s about escaping the prisoner’s dilemma. We can’t let small groups with narrow agendas and parochial visions undermine collaborations essential for our interests and security in an interconnected world.

Nat Friedman discusses Sora, and image wisdom

NF: Yeah, I interviewed the Sora creators yesterday, the day before on stage at an event and it was super interesting to hear their point of view. I think we see Sora as this media production tool, that’s not their view, that’s a side effect. Their view is that it is a world simulator and that in fact it can sort of simulate any kind of behavior in the world, including going as far as saying, “Let’s create a video with Ben and Daniel and Nat and have them discuss this,” and then see where the conversation goes. And their view is also that Sora today is a GPT-1 scale, not a lot of data, not a lot of compute, and so we should expect absolutely dramatic improvement in the future as they simply scale it up and thirdly that there’s just a lot more video data than there is text data on the Internet…

And then Andrej Karpathy, I was talking to him the other day too, and he said, “There’s something strange going on-”

[Ben Thompson] And a picture is worth a thousand words by the way, so the number of tokens there is just astronomically larger.

NF: He was exploring this idea that the world model and image and video models actually might better than in text models. You ask it for a car engine, someone fixing a carburetor and just the level of detail that can be in there is extraordinary, and maybe we made a mistake by training on the text extracted from Common Crawl and what we should do instead. I asked him for his most unhinged research idea. He said what we should do instead is train on pictures of web pages and when you ask the model a question, it outputs a picture of a web page with the answer and maybe we’d get way more intelligence and better results from that.

That is from his dialogue with Ben Thompson and Daniel Gross, gated but worth paying for.

Claims about Taylor Swift

Taylor Swift’s record-shattering Eras Tour is continuing to supercharge consumer spending as it enters its U.K. leg, suggesting that the Bank of England may not be out of the woods yet in its fight against inflation.

As hundreds of thousands of dedicated Swifties flock to London in August to see the singing sensation during her final U.K. dates, the economic boost could be enough to defer a possible September interest rate cut, according to investment bank TD Securities.

“We still anticipate a BoE cut in August, but the inflation data for that month might keep the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) on hold in September,” the bank’s macro strategist, Lucas Krishan, and its head of global macro strategy, James Rossiter, wrote in a note Friday.

Here is more from CNBC, via D.  And recently Taylor Swift fans caused seismic activity at an Edinburgh show.

Claims about Africa and its politics

From Ken Opalo:

A common misperception economic policies in African states tend to be statist, far-Left, or anti-market. This is not supported by the data (see examples of Kenya, Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, and South Africa below). In actual fact, most governments in the region tend to be eager adopters of allegedly apolitical “best practices” that are essentially center-right economic orthodoxy. If you add to this their social policies, the modal African government is essentially Center-right. What these countries often fail on is implementation (partially because said policies are seldom useful in context and/or due to weak state capacity).

And this:

Third, the lack of governing experience and decades of state repression have led to a perversive anti-statist discourse and politics on the African Left. Among Leftist intellectuals, the colonial origins of the African state has been used as a reason to perpetually delegitimize state-building (many of the same intellectuals suffered state repression). In this rendering, the African state can never overcome the original sin of colonial origin; and should be abolished and replaced with a Pan-African state (which presumably would be better at deploying coercion and providing public goods and services). At the same time, many economically-ascendant Africans who are broadly sympathetic to Leftist politics harbor anti-statist sentiments when it comes to the economy and tend to overstate the statist origins of African economic underdevelopment — this partially reflects the ideological hold of economic orthodoxy in the region. The reality, of course, is that African countries are terribly under-governed. Data on security and law enforcement, registration of births and deaths, education attainment, taxation, expenditure absorption, economic regulation, etc. all point to the fact that the contemporary African state is too small and too weak to meet the challenges of modern economics and politics.

Here is much more.  I am not sure how much the left- vs. right-wing framing applies to Africa at all — sometimes I think the better category is “prioritizes things going well, or not,” as part of the author’s remarks would seem to indicate.

*The Wrong Stuff: How the Soviet Space Program Crashed and Burned*

By John Strausbaugh, an excellent book.  Here is one good passage of many:

Putting dogs on top of rockets was nothing new.  Since so little was known about the effects that blasting off in a rocket might have on th ehuman body and brain — the g-force of acceleration, the disorientation of weightlessness, the impact of radiation, the g-force of deceleration — the Soviets and the Americans both had been using various species of animals to test conditions since the 1940s.  The Americans started sending up fruit flies aboard their White Sands V-2s in 1947.  An anesthetized rhesus monkey they named Albert II…went up eighty-three miles in a V-2 in 1949.  Unfortunately, his parachute failed to oepn on reentry and he was smashed to death on impact with the ground.  The Americans continued to send up primates in the 1940s and 1950s.  Something like two-thirds of them died.  They used many other species as well, maybe the oddest of which was black bears, who were strapped into a rocket-powered sled at a facility with the deceptively sweet name the Daisy Track to test the physical effects of ultra-rapid acceleration and deceleration.

Recommended.

Where are the female composers?

Ludwig van Beethoven, Johann Sebastian Bach, and Frederic Chopin are household names, but few will recognize Francesca Caccini, Elisabeth Lutyens or Amy M. Beach, who are among the top-10 female composers of all time. Why are female composers overshadowed by their male counterparts? Using novel data on over 17,000 composers who lived from the sixth to the twentieth centuries, we conduct the first quantitative exploration of the gender gap among classical composers. We use the length of a composer’s biographical entry in Grove Music Online to measure composer prominence, and shed light on the determinants of the gender gap with a focus on the development of composers’ human capital through families, teachers, and institutionalized music education. The evidence suggests that parental musical background matters for composers’ prominence, that the effects of teachers vary by the gender of the composer but the effects of parents do not, and while musician mothers and female teachers are important, they do not narrow the gender gap in composer prominence. We also find that the institutionalization of music education in conservatories increases the relative prominence of female composers.

That is from a new research paper by Karol Jan Borowiecki, Martin Hørlyk Kristensen, and Marc T. Law, via K.