Combination Rapid Tests

Once again, the US is behind on at-home rapid antigen tests–this time on combination tests that let you test for COVID, Influenza, and RSV all at once. These tests are widely available in Europe but have not been approved by the FDA. Rapid flu tests especially are potentially very useful in assigning appropriate treatment and reducing the overuse of antibiotics.

Does reducing lead exposure limit crime?

These results seem a bit underwhelming, and furthermore there seems to be publication bias, this is all from a recent meta-study on lead and crime.  Here goes:

Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime by pooling 529 estimates from 24 studies. We find evidence of publication bias across a range of tests. This publication bias means that the effect of lead is overstated in the literature. We perform over 1 million meta-regression specifications, controlling for this bias, and conditioning on observable between-study heterogeneity. When we restrict our analysis to only high-quality studies that address endogeneity the estimated mean effect size is close to zero. When we use the full sample, the mean effect size is a partial correlation coefficient of 0.11, over ten times larger than the high-quality sample. We calculate a plausible elasticity range of 0.22-0.02 for the full sample and 0.03-0.00 for the high-quality sample. Back-ofenvelope calculations suggest that the fall in lead over recent decades is responsible for between 36%-0% of the fall in homicide in the US. Our results suggest lead does not explain the majority of the large fall in crime observed in some countries, and additional explanations are needed.

Here is one image from the paper:

Image

The authors on the paper are Anthony Higney, Nick Hanley, and Mirko Moroa.  I have long been agnostic about the lead-crime hypothesis, simply because I never had the time to look into it, rather than for any particular substantive reason.  (I suppose I did have some worries that the time series and cross-national estimates seemed strongly at variance.)  I can report that my belief in it is weakening…

In-Person Schooling and Youth Suicide

School attendance, possibly through mechanisms of status competition and bullying, seems to raise the rate of youth suicide:

This study explores the effect of in-person schooling on youth suicide. We document three key findings. First, using data from the National Vital Statistics System from 1990-2019, we document the historical association between teen suicides and the school calendar. We show that suicides among 12-to-18-year-olds are highest during months of the school year and lowest during summer months (June through August) and also establish that areas with schools starting in early August experience increases in teen suicides in August, while areas with schools starting in September don’t see youth suicides rise until September. Second, we show that this seasonal pattern dramatically changed in 2020. Teen suicides plummeted in March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic began in the U.S. and remained low throughout the summer before rising in Fall 2020 when many K-12 schools returned to in-person instruction. Third, using county-level variation in school reopenings in Fall 2020 and Spring 2021—proxied by anonymized SafeGraph smartphone data on elementary and secondary school foot traffic—we find that returning from online to in-person schooling was associated with a 12-to-18 percent increase teen suicides. This result is robust to controls for seasonal effects and general lockdown effects (proxied by restaurant and bar foot traffic), and survives falsification tests using suicides among young adults ages 19-to-25. Auxiliary analyses using Google Trends queries and the Youth Risk Behavior Survey suggests that bullying victimization may be an important mechanism.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Benjamin Hansen, Joseph J. Sabia, and Jessamyn Schaller.  I am reminded of my earlier Bloomberg column on Covid and school reopening.

Are Progressives in Denial About Progress?

That is the title of a new paper by Gregory Mitchell and Philip E. Tetlock, here is the abstract:

Scott Lilienfeld warned that psychology’s ideological uniformity would lead to premature closure on sensitive topics. He encouraged psychologists to question politically convenient results and did so himself in numerous areas. We follow Lilienfeld’s example and examine the empirical foundation beneath claims that positive illusions about societal change sustain inequalities by inducing apathy and opposition to reform. Drawing on data from a large-scale survey, we find almost the opposite: a pervasive tendency, across ideological and demographic categories, to see things as getting worse than they really are. These results cast doubt on functionalist claims that people mobilize beliefs about societal trends to support political positions and suggest a simpler explanation: Most laypeople do not organize information in ways that provide reliable monitoring of social change over time, which makes their views on progress susceptible to memory distortions and high-profile current events and political rhetoric.

This argument is also a theme in my much earlier In Praise of Commercial Culture.

Does more construction raise rents?

Matt Yglesias has a long post on that question, recommended albeit gated.  Matt’s take is hard to summarize, so I will provide a somewhat different view, though one that is still pro-YIMBY though with a different slant.

Without loss of generality, we can assume that sometimes “more building” raises rents and other times lowers them, or rents stay the same.

Let’s say there are no big “ideas externalities” from a new NYC apartment building, and as we put more of those buildings in, the rents fall somewhat. Furthermore, say we keep on building until those rents in NYC equal those in Nashville. There is gain on the inframarginal units of construction, but at the final margin the new building in NYC has about the same social value as the new building in Nashville.  The inframarginal gains are the relevant ones.

Now who gets those inframarginal gains?  If land is the truly scarce factor, as NIMBY critics suggest, landlords get a lot of them!  Nothing against that, I love landlords.  Still, that is a slightly different story from what you hear from the YIMBYs.  Landlords don’t get all of those gains, because the land scarcity constraint is precisely what is being relaxed.  But the available evidence seems to indicate you need to build a lot before rents fall much.  So landlords probably receive a healthy share of those new gains.  Rents may fall, but not by that much.  And so the gains for new urban entrants (who did not wish to migrate at the old rent levels) are correspondingly meh.

Again, let me repeat I love YIMBY and I love landlords.  You should too.

Alternatively, say you keep on building and the new residents bring lots of information externalities to the urban area — ever been to Seoul?  They have built like crazy and it is still quite expensive, all the more so in fact.  By building more, they made the land more valuable.  Good for them.  (NB: The biggest beneficiaries may be the rest of Korea, and K-Pop consumers around the world, not Seoul residents.)

Now who do you think reaps most of those gains?  Under standard NIMBY assumptions, I would think it is mainly the landlords.  Which is not to deny the residents receive some gains from increased product diversity in Seoul (good Thai food there now, etc.), and other non-primary effects.

It’s not all the landlords.  But still, the knowledge externalities make land in Seoul, in economic terms, more scarce.  The landlords will do really well.

When I read or hear YIMBYs, I often feel they have a public choice model of politics, slanted toward recognizing the influence of the landlords and homeowners, but not a comparable model of factor price incidence to boot.  They somehow want the lower rents and the positive information externalities both at the same time.  That to me seems unlikely.  And so it is harder to redistribute income away from landlords than you might think.

I again would stress that all the YIMBY changes are Pareto improvements here.  But the extreme remedies suggested by the Georgists, which to be clear I do not favor, are quite explicable to me.

Two attitudes toward the GPTs

The first is: “Look, I asked it to discuss the importance of Haitian voodoo flag maker Antoine Oleyant, and it failed miserably.”

The second is: “The answers to some of my questions and requests are amazing.  If it can do this at all, over time it will be able to do much, much more.”

2b is: “I recognize that the initial releases are geared toward defensibility and survivability, not optimized for actual regular practical use.”

Needless to say, I am in camp #2, and you should be too.

What should I ask Yasheng Huang?

I will be having a Conversation with him, the first but not last “China conversation” for the podcast.  Here is part of his Wikipedia page:

Yasheng Huang (Chinese: 黄亚生) is an American professor in international management at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he founded and heads the China Lab and India Lab. His research areas include human capital formation in China and India.

He had previous appointments at the University of Michigan and Harvard Business School.

Huang is the author of Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics, a history of economic reforms in China.

I am a fan of his forthcoming book The Rise and the Fall of the EAST: Examination, Autocracy, Stability and Technology, reviewed by me here.

Here is Yasheng Huang on Twitter.  So what should I ask him?

Tuesday assorted links

1. Stephen Carter best non-fiction of the year list.

2. Bahamas views on SBF (NYT).

3. Contemporary opera is now outselling classic opera at the Met (NYT).

4. You people are crazy those new service sector jobs $480 an hour.

5. Paul McCartney stops into New Jersey cafe.

6. Central Paris will ban non-essential car traffic for 2024 (Bloomberg).

7. The year in AI.

8. Why don’t people click on links?  One hypothesis of mine is that people like scanning link titles (and not clicking), but from a credible source, simply so they can feel they didn’t miss anything big.

Top MR Posts of 2022

Here are the top MR posts by views from 2022. Biggest post was Tyler’s

1. Classical liberalism vs. The New Right

followed up by two posts by me on Biden’s student loan plan

2. The Student Loan Giveaway is Much Bigger Than You Think

3. Taxing Mechanical Engineers and Subsidizing Drama Majors

and further posts by me on FTX and the probability of a nuclear war.

4. The FTX Debacle ELI5

5. What is the Probability of a Nuclear War, Redux

I said ProPublica was putting their reputation on the line with the lab-leak report but nevertheless I was too credulous. Much of the factual reporting remains correct, however. Lab leak is very much in play.

6. A “Safety Emergency” Happened at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in November of 2019

Tyler comes in next with a post on criticizing other people in private.

7. How much should you criticize other people?

and two posts on the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

8. Putin as a Man of Ideas

9. How did the IR community get Russia/Ukraine so wrong?

Finally Tyler offers some advice:

10. Stop Drinking Now

Rounding out the top were Best Books of 2022, What Caused the 2020 Spike in Murders and How to Elect Republicans.

What were your favorite MR posts of 2022. What should we revisit?

How happy are Americans (and Danes) anyway?

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt:

Two economists, David G. Blanchflower of Dartmouth and Alex Bryson of University College London, have come up with a new and more intuitive way to measure well-being. The results are striking. If you consider US states as comparable to countries, 16 of the top 20 political units in the world for well-being are in the US — including the top seven.

Many happiness surveys ask individuals how satisfied they are with their lives. That is one way of phrasing the happiness question, but it has its biases. It tends to favor nations where people have a strong sense of self-satisfaction — or, if you want to put a more negative gloss on it, where the people are somewhat smug. Those are some of the studies in which Finland and Denmark come in first.

The genius of this most recent study is that it considers both positive and negative affect, and gives countries (and US states) separate ratings for the two. In other words, it recognizes there is more than one dimension to well-being. It lists four variables as part of negative affect: pain, sadness, anger and worry. Positive affect consists of four measures: life satisfaction, enjoyment, smiling and being well-rested. So life satisfaction is only one part of the measure.

One interesting result is that nations that avoid negative affect are not necessarily the same as those which enjoy the highest positive affect. Some countries — including the US — have a lot of extremes. Americans tend to go to the limit on both the upside and the downside.

Bhutan is an extreme contrast along these same lines. Measured only by positive affect, the Bhutanese are No. 9 in the world, an impressive showing. But for negative affect they rank No. 149 — in other words, they experience a great deal of negative emotion, perhaps due to the extreme hardships in their lives. Considering both positive and negative affect, they come in at No. 99, not a bad showing for such a poor country (better, in fact, than the UK’s 111.)

Denmark’s positive affect puts it only at No. 71, befitting the popular image of a country where not everyone is jumping for joy. Arkansas has a better positive affect, coming in at No. 67. But Denmark rates higher overall (38, to Arkansas’s 72) because Arkansas shows higher negative affect (87, to Denmark’s 66).

Measuring both positive and negative affect, the 10 happiest political units in the world are, in order: Hawaii, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Taiwan, Alaska and Wisconsin. Of the top 50 places, 36 are US states (I include the District of Columbia, No. 16). China is No. 30.

Here is the original study.  The Danes are #111 for smiling!

They deserve at least a “pass” for this one

In Fall 2014, Wellesley College began mandating pass/fail grading for courses taken by first-year, first-semester students, although instructors continued to record letter grades. We identify the causal effect of the policy on course choice and performance, using a regression-discontinuity-in-time design. Students shifted to lower-grading STEM courses in the first semester, but did not increase their engagement with STEM in later semesters. Letter grades of first-semester students declined by 0.13 grade points, or 23% of a standard deviation. We evaluate causal channels of the grade effect—including sorting into lower-grading STEM courses and declining instructional quality—and conclude that the effect is consistent with declining student effort.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Kristin Butcher, Patrick McEwan, and Akila Weerapana.

Monday assorted links

1. “With this shirt you are allowed to get 1 Everyday Value Slam everyday [at Denny’s] for until 12/31/23.”  What should such a shirt cost?

2. Incentives matter.

3. Those new service sector jobs.

4. Jolly Swagman podcast with Andy Matuschak.

5. “A simple decomposition illustrates that immigrants are responsible for 36% of aggregate innovation, two-thirds of which is due to their innovation externalities on their native-born collaborators.

6. Crypto wash trading (lots of it).