My entertaining Conversation with Annie Jacobsen

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary:

Tyler and Annie explore whether we should be more afraid of nuclear weapons or if fear itself raises the risks, who should advise presidents during the six-minute decision window, whether moving toward disarmament makes us safer or more vulnerable, what Thomas Schelling really meant about nuclear war and rational actors, the probability that America would retaliate after a nuclear attack, the chances of intercepting a single incoming ICBM, why missile defense systems can’t replicate Israel’s Iron Dome success, how Pakistan-India nuclear tensions could escalate, why she’s surprised domestic drone attacks haven’t happened yet, her reporting on JFK assassination mysteries and deathbed phone calls, her views on UFOs and the dark human experiments at Area 51, what motivates intelligence community operators, her encounters with Uri Geller and CIA psychic research, what she’s working on next, and more.

Excerpt:

JACOBSEN: I quote him in the notes of my book, and this is perhaps the only regret I have in the entire book, that I put this quote from Schelling in the notes rather than in the text. Maybe it’s more interesting for your listeners if we drill down on this than the big platitudes of, “Do more nuclear weapons make us more safe?” It goes like this. This was Schelling in an interview with WGBH Radio in 1986 in Boston.

He says, “The problem with applying game theory to nuclear war is that nuclear war, by its very nature, does not involve rational men. It can’t. What sane person would be willing to kill hundreds of millions of people, ruin the earth, and end modern civilization in order to make somebody called the enemy doesn’t win first?”

COWEN: But Schelling did favor nuclear weapons. That was his dark sense of humor, I would say.

JACOBSEN: You think what I just read was his sense of humor?

COWEN: Absolutely.

JACOBSEN: I believe it was a man in his elder years coming to the conclusion that nuclear war is insane, which is the fundamental premise that I make in the book.

COWEN: You can hold both views. It is insane, but it might be the better insanity of the ones available to us.

JACOBSEN: Yes. From my take, he, like so many others that I have interviewed, because, for some reason — call it fate and circumstance — I have spent my career interviewing men in their 80s and 90s, who are defense officials who spent their entire life making war or preventing war. I watch them share with me their reflections in that third act of their life, which are decidedly different — in their own words — than those that they would have made as a younger man.

I find that fascinating, and that’s my takeaway from the Schelling quote, that he came to terms with the fact that intellectualizing game theory — like von Neumann, who never got to his old age — is madness.

COWEN: Let’s say that Russia or China, by mistake, did a full-scale launch toward the United States, and they couldn’t call the things back, and we’re in that six-minute window, or whatever it would be with hypersonics. What do you think is the probability that we would do a full-scale launch back?

COWEN: The word madness doesn’t have much force with me. My life is a lot of different kinds of madness. I’ve heard people say marriage is madness. A lot of social conventions seem to me to be madness.

The question is getting the least harmful form of madness out there. Then, I’m not convinced that those who wish to disarm have really made their case. Certainly, saying nuclear war is madness doesn’t persuade me. If anything, if enough people think it’s madness, we won’t get it, and it’s fine to have the nuclear weapons.

A different and quite stimulating episode.

Did the Minnesota housing reform lower housing costs?

Yes:

In December 2018, Minneapolis became the first U.S. city to eliminate single-family zoning through the Minneapolis 2040 Plan, a landmark reform with a central focus on improving housing affordability. This paper estimates the effect of the Minneapolis 2040 Plan on home values and rental prices. Using a synthetic control approach we find that the reform lowered housing cost growth in the five years following implementation: home prices were 16% to 34% lower, while rents were 17.5% to 34% lower relative to a counterfactual Minneapolis constructed from similar metro areas. Placebo tests document these housing cost trajectories were the lowest of 83 donor cities (p=0.012). The results remain consistent and robust to a series of subset analyses and controls. We explore the possible mechanism of these impacts and find that the reform did not trigger a construction boom or an immediate increase in the housing supply. Instead, the observed price reductions appear to stem from a softening of housing demand, likely driven by altered expectations about the housing market.

That is from a new paper by Helena Gu and David Munro.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The Sri Lankan economic recovery (from my email)

Hi,

I’m a macroconsultant/analyst based in Sri Lanka. Was suddenly reminded of your 2023 MR piece on Sri Lanka – soon after the depth of the crisis locally.
Since then, Sri Lanka has seen what I think to many is a remarkable turnaround on both the macro fundamentals and the social indicators (admittedly data is very divergent on social).
A few specific points on the macro –
– 2 years of twin surpluses (after 70+ years of twin deficits)
– Looks in line to do a 3rd year of twin surpluses alongside 5% growth
– Income tax collections growing 20%+ YoY without any text increases
– 4% of GDP in net government LCY balances vs historic deficits
– Gross capital formation rising dramatically without government capex spending
– Credit recovery without government spending to support private income
– Remittances (possibly cyclical), oil imports (massive distributed solar), and net port services (ME diversion+new capacity) overperforming IMF numbers by 1-2% of GDP
– Net foreign assets of banking system at ~2% of GDP
– Currency appreciated and stable from crisis peaks
– Inflation averaging 0% 3 years after crisis (+ energy driven deflation spots)

TC again: thanks to Chayu Damsinghe from Frontier Research.  A true reversal of fortune, at least for the time being…

Solve for the equilibrium

The title of the paper is “Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany.”  Here is the abstract:

We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative fur Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties—the AfD in particular—adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multiparty democratic system.

Note that is “right-wing terrorism,” not Islamic terrorism.  The piece is by Navid Sabet, Marius Liebald, and Guido Friebel.

Regulatory Complexity and Rents

Luis Garicano on the EU-US trade deal.

…The growing regulatory complexity and arbitrariness of the tariff regime provides rents to those connected with power, not to innovators. It is a recipe for the biggest enemy of growth: regulatory overkill and crony capitalism. Consider the example of importing a can of beer from Belgium into the US. There is a 10% country-specific tariff on the entire value of the product. On top of this, the aluminium can itself is treated as a completely separate product, subject to its own additional tariff of up to 50%. The level of this tariff is based on the nearly untraceable origin of the raw metal—the country where the aluminium was “smelted and cast.” The tariff rises to 200% if the country is unknown. This forces an importer to research the obscure global supply chain of a minor component and apply multiple, overlapping tax rates to a single, everyday item.

Many other interesting comments.

New data on tenure

Tenure is a defining feature of the US academic system with significant implications for research productivity and creative search. Yet the impact of tenure on faculty research trajectories remains poorly understood. We analyze the careers of 12,000 US faculty across 15 disciplines to reveal key patterns, pre- and post-tenure. Publication rates rise sharply during the tenure-track, peaking just before tenure. However, post-tenure trajectories diverge: Researchers in lab-based fields sustain high output, while those in non-lab-based fields typically exhibit a decline. After tenure, faculty produce more novel works, though fewer highly cited papers. These findings highlight tenure’s pivotal role in shaping scientific careers, offering insights into the interplay between academic incentives, creativity, and impact while informing debates about the academic system.

Here is the paper.  That is by Giorgio Tripodi, Ziang Zheng, Yifan Qian, and Dashun Wang, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

What I’ve been reading

1. Hamid Keshmirshekan, Contemporary Iranian Art: New Perspectives.  I get tired of reading through the same old histories of Persia/Iran, and how they tell the same old tales of the rise and fall of the Shah, etc.  So how else might you try to understand contemporary Iran better?  Books like this are a very good place to start, plus they are fun to page through.  If anything, the works seem to get better and more original post-1979?  And you can see continuing currents of the non-Islamic undergrounds strands in Iranian theology?

2. Neal Bascomb, The Perfect Mile: Three Athletes, One Goal, and Less than Four Minutes to Achieve It.  While the major focus is on Roger Bannister, there is plenty on the other runners of his time as well, most of all the Australian John Landy, who rapidly broke Bannister record after it was achieved.  Many smart people do not read enough books about the history of sports.  Yet the genre is very good, as often both the readers and the authors (!) actually really care about the content of the material.  Recommended.

3. Barry Mazor, Blood Harmony: The Everly Brothers Story.  I’m not going to pass this one up, as Macca once said: “The biggest influence on John and me was the Everly Brothers.  To this day I just think they’re the greatest.”  In addition to the very famous songs, “Roots” is an incredible and now neglected album.  This book however is good not great, as it never quite brings them to life.  But it is now the main biography, and in that sense is self-recommending.

4. Ian Penman, Erik Satie Three Piece Suite (Semiotext(e)/ Native Agents.  A hard book to explain.  A kind of devil’s dictionary of terms related to Erik Satie, interesting and witty throughout, at least if you know something of early modernism and its culture.  Recommended, for those who care.

5. Alexander Ivashkin, Alfred Schnittke.  “Schnittke really lies between two traditions, with German rationalism on one hand and Russian irrationalism on the other.”  Lately I have been listening to the Psalms of Remembrance and the violin sonata #2.  I had not known that Schnittke grew up speaking Volga German.

5. Rachel Cusk, Parade.  I quite enjoyed this, described on the back cover as “a carousel of lives.”  You will find an overview and spoilers here.

Bill McGowan, and Juliana Silva, Speak, Memorably: The Art of Captivating an Audience, is a good and useful book.

Jo Ann Cavallo, editor, Libertarian Literary and Media Criticism: Essays in Memory of Paul A. Cantor.  There is even an essay by David Gordon (!) in here.

The Routledge Handbook of the Ethics of Immigration, edited by Sahar Akhtar,  is the best collection on its topic.

There is Thomas Piketty, Equality is a Struggle: Bulletins from the Front Line, 2021-2025.  Columns in favor of democratic socialism and higher taxes.

And there is Samuel Arbesman, The Magic of Code: How Digital Language Created and Connects Our World — and Shapes Our Future.

What is superintelligence?

The Free Press ran a symposium on that topic, I was a contributor.  Here is the closing part of mine:

“I asked o3 pro, a leading AI model from OpenAI, “What is superintelligence?” Here is the opening to a much longer answer:

Superintelligence is a term most commonly used in artificial intelligence (AI) studies and the philosophy of mind to denote any intellect that greatly outperforms the best human brains in virtually every relevant domain—from scientific creativity and social skills to general wisdom and strategic reasoning.

Is that a superintelligent answer? No. Is it better than mine? The AI thinks it is a toss-up: “Cowen’s version excels at pithiness and viewpoint; mine excels at breadth and rigor. Neither is universally ‘better’; each serves different reader needs.”

I can breathe easily, at least for today.”

Genius, Rejected: Emergent Ventures Versus the System

Quanta Magazine has a good piece on a 17-year-old student who disproved a long-standing conjecture in harmonic analysis:

Yet a paper posted on February 10(opens a new tab) left the math world by turns stunned, delighted and ready to welcome a bold new talent into its midst. Its author was Hannah Cairo(opens a new tab), just 17 at the time. She had solved a 40-year-old mystery about how functions behave, called the Mizohata-Takeuchi conjecture.

“We were all shocked, absolutely. I don’t remember ever seeing anything like that,” said Itamar Oliveira (opens aof the University of Birmingham, who has spent the past two years trying to prove that the conjecture was true. In her paper, Cairo showed that it’s false. The result defies mathematicians’ usual intuitions about what functions can and cannot do.

The proof, and its unlikely author, have energized the math community since Cairo posted it in February. “I was absolutely, ‘Wow.’ This has been my favorite problem for nigh on 40 years, and I was completely blown away,” Carbery said. 

Here is the abstract to the paper:

I can’t speak to the mathematics but this is Quanta Magazine not People Magazine and Cairo is not coming out of nowhere. As the article discusses, she has been taking graduate classes in mathematics at Berkeley from people like Ruixiang Zhang. So what is the problem?

I was enraged by the following:

After completing the proof, she decided to apply straight to graduate school, skipping college (and a high school diploma) altogether. As she saw it, she was already living the life of a graduate student. Cairo applied to 10 graduate programs. Six rejected her because she didn’t have a college degree. Two admitted her, but then higher-ups in those universities’ administrations overrode those decisions.

Only the University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University were willing to welcome her straight into a doctoral program.

Kudos to UMD and JHU! But what is going on at those other universities?!! Their sole mission is to identify and nurture talent. They have armies of admissions staff and tout their “holistic” approach to recognizing creativity and intellectual promise even when it follows an unconventional path. Yet they can’t make room for a genius who has been vetted by some of the top mathematicians in the world? This is institutional failure. 

We saw similar failures during COVID: researchers at Yale’s School of Public Health, working on new tests, couldn’t get funding from their own billion-dollar institution and would have stalled without Tyler’s Fast Grants. But the problem isn’t just speed. Emergent Ventures isn’t about speed but about discovering talent. If you wonder why EV has been so successful look to Tyler and people like Shruti Rajagopalan and to the noble funders but look also to the fact that their competitors are so bureaucratic that they can’t recognize talent even when it is thrust upon them.

It’s a very good thing EV exists. But you know your city is broken when you need Batman to fight crime. EV will have truly succeeded when the rest of the system is inspired into raising its game.

No abundance for *Abundance*

Book clubs nationwide have been talking for months about whether you are “Abundance-pilled,” a reference to the recent book by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson that has made it into the lexicon of many public policy nerds.

And public policy nerds happen to be everywhere in the District of Columbia. That is why the waitlist to borrow this book at the D.C. Public Library is more than 300 people long for a hard copy, over 500-long for an eBook and more than 800-long for an audiobook.

How many copies does the D.C. library system have of this New York Times-bestseller, which was published in March? Well, from March to July, the total was just one. One hard copy, zero eBook registrations and zero audio books.

Only in August did the D.C. public library finally expand its catalogue to 51 copies, which is still little relief for the hundreds who have been waiting months.

Model that!  Here is the full story, via Bruce.