Category: Economics

The weight of research opinion against minimum wage hikes continues to shift

This piece is by DuckKi Cho and is titled “Downward Wage Rigidity and Corporate Investment”:

Firms reduce investment when facing downward wage rigidity, the inability or unwillingness to adjust wages downward. To document this behavior, I exploit staggered state-level changes in minimum wage laws as an exogenous variation in downward wage rigidity. Following a 1-standard-deviation increase in the minimum wage, firms reduce their investment rate (the ratio of capital expenditure to capital stock) by 3.08 percentage points. The negative impact is more acute for firms with a higher fraction of minimum wage workers, stronger employment protections, or higher labor intensity. The investment reductions cannot be explained by labor adjustment under capital-labor complementarities. Rather, I identify the aggravation of debt overhang and increased operating leverage crowding out debt financing as two mechanisms by which downward wage rigidity impedes investment. The findings highlight the unintended consequences of minimum wage policies on corporate investment.

From the Journal of Law and Economics.  I fear that for the next thirty years people still will be claiming that Card and Krueger showed that minimum wage hikes do not damage employment.  After numerous recent revisions, many of them catalogued here, that is no longer such a plausible belief.

Summary of a new DeepMind paper

Super intriguing idea in this new @GoogleDeepMind  paper – shows how to handle the rise of AI agents acting as independent players in the economy.

It says that if left unchecked, these agents will create their own economy that connects directly to the human one, which could bring both benefits and risks.

The authors suggest building a “sandbox economy,” which is a controlled space where agents can trade and coordinate without causing harm to the broader human economy.

A big focus is on permeability, which means how open or closed this sandbox is to the outside world. A fully open system risks crashes and instability spilling into the human economy, while a fully closed system may be safer but less useful.

They propose using auctions where agents fairly bid for resources like data, compute, or tools. Giving all agents equal starting budgets could help balance power and prevent unfair advantages.

For larger goals, they suggest mission economies, where many agents coordinate toward one shared outcome, such as solving a scientific or social problem.

The risks they flag include very fast agent negotiations that humans cannot keep up with, scams or prompt attacks against agents, and powerful groups dominating resources.

To reduce these risks, they call for identity and reputation systems using tools like digital credentials, proof of personhood, zero-knowledge proofs, and real-time audit trails.

The core message is that we should design the rules for these agent markets now, so they grow in a safe and fair way instead of by accident.

That is from Rohan Paul, though the paper is by Nenad Tomasev, et.al.  It would be a shame if economists neglected what is perhaps the most important (and interesting) mechanism design problem facing us.

Banks’ Images: Evidence from Advertising Videos

This paper examines how banks strategically develop brand images and how these efforts influence franchise value and the transmission of monetary policy. Analyzing TV advertisements via video embeddings, we measure banks’ images along three dimensions: pricing advantages, service quality, and building trust and emotional connections. Banks with high local market shares highlight service and trust. Banks lacking pricing or service advantages lean on emotional appeals. Banks tailor images to demographics, increasing minority representation in targeted areas. A border discontinuity design helps identify that banks’ images affect deposit growth, spreads, and loan demand, leading banks to respond differently to monetary policy.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Xugan ChenAllen Hu Song Ma.

Should we abolish mandatory quarterly corporate reporting?

President Trump has suggested doing that.  I have not found a human source as good as GPT5, so I will cite that:

Theory predicts that more frequent reporting can exacerbate managerial short‑termism; some archival evidence finds lower investment when reporting frequency rises. But when countries reduced frequency (UK/EU), the average firm’s investment didn’t materially change—in part because most issuers kept giving quarterly updates anyway…

Will markets just insist on quarterly anyway? That’s what happened in the UK and Austria: after rules allowed semi‑annual reporting, only a small minority actually stopped quarterly updates; those that did often saw lower liquidity and less analyst coverage. So yes—many issuers kept some form of quarterly communication to satisfy investors.

There is much, much more at the link.

“Vote now for the 2025 AEA election”

I have now received this email for the seventh (?) time:

If you have not already done so, I encourage you to take a few moments to cast your vote in the AEA 2025 Election. Paper ballots will not be mailed this year. Voting will be closed at 11:59 pm EDT, September 30, 2025.  To access your official ballot and candidate biographical information, please click on the following personalized link…

Janice C. Eberly is the only candidate running for AEA president, and I have no idea what she stands for.  (In fairness to the AEA, there is some choice for the vice-presidents, you can pick two out of four).  Here is her statement of purpose:

Statement of Purpose: Economics brings powerful tools to understand and analyze issues in social science. To live up to that promise, we need to attract and retain talent, develop data and analytics, and engage students. The AEA mission to advance the field is dynamic and challenging. As economists, we rely on collaborators, students, researchers, and a host of academic, public and private resources. In a changing field, the AEA needs to be correspondingly resilient. We can apply our tools to evaluate our progress and experiment with new initiatives. As president-elect, I would focus particularly on data access and opportunities for young scholars, plus attention to emerging issues. Economics cannot thrive without growing young scholars – who are often the first to experience new challenges. The AEA consistently supports data innovation through its committees and journals and continues to advise public and private data resources.

I do not disagree, but where does she stand on the possibly contentious issues?  How about a platform of turning over all AEA intellectual property, including published papers and referee reports, to the major AI companies to aid in the purpose of producing truly great economics AI models?  That is what I favor, does she?  It would be nice to use elections to settle matters of substance, that is what they are for, right?

Do Markets Believe in Transformative AI?

No:

Economic theory predicts that transformative technologies may influence interest rates by changing growth expectations, increasing uncertainty about growth, or raising concerns about existential risk. Examining US bond yields around major AI model releases in 2023-4, we find economically large and statistically significant movements concentrated at longer maturities. The median and mean yield responses across releases in our sample are negative: long-term Treasury, TIPS, and corporate yields fall and remain lower for weeks. Viewed through the lens of a simple, representative agent consumption-based asset pricing model, these declines correspond to downward revisions in expected consumption growth and/or a reduction in the perceived probability of extreme outcomes such as existential risk or arrival of a post-scarcity economy. By contrast, changes in consumption growth uncertainty do not appear to drive our results.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Isaiah Andrews and Maryam Farboodi.

Polarization, purpose and profit

Or a theory of how Silicon Valley once was?  Or maybe still is?  I am not sure!

We present a model in which firms compete for workers who value nonpecuniary job attributes, such as purpose, sustainability, political stances, or working conditions. Firms adopt production technologies that enable them to offer jobs with varying levels of these desirable attributes. Firms’ profits are higher when they cater to workers with extreme preferences. In a competitive assignment equilibrium, firms become polarized and not only reflect but also amplify the polarized preferences of the general population. More polarized sectors exhibit higher profits, lower average wages, and a reduced labor share of value added. Sustainable investing amplifies firm polarization.

That is from a recent paper by Daniel Ferreira and Radoslawaa Nikolowa.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

Intertemporal substitution

Across several Central American nations money transfers have jumped 20 percent.

The reason, officials, migrants and analysts say, is that people afraid of being deported are trying to get as much money out of the country as possible, while they still can.

The money transfers, called remittances, are a critical lifeline for many countries and families around the world, especially in Central America and the Caribbean. There, the funds sometimes make up a huge chunk of a nation’s economy — as much as a quarter of a country’s gross domestic product, as in Honduras and Nicaragua.

Here is more from James Wagner at the NYT.

AI Agents for Economic Research

The objective of this paper is to demystify AI agents – autonomous LLM-based systems that plan, use tools, and execute multi-step research tasks – and to provide hands-on instructions for economists to build their own, even if they do not have programming expertise. As AI has evolved from simple chatbots to reasoning models and now to autonomous agents, the main focus of this paper is to make these powerful tools accessible to all researchers. Through working examples and step-by-step code, it shows how economists can create agents that autonomously conduct literature reviews across myriads of sources, write and debug econometric code, fetch and analyze economic data, and coordinate complex research workflows. The paper demonstrates that by “vibe coding” (programming through natural language) and building on modern agentic frameworks like LangGraph, any economist can build sophisticated research assistants and other autonomous tools in minutes. By providing complete, working implementations alongside conceptual frameworks, this guide demonstrates how to employ AI agents in every stage of the research process, from initial investigation to final analysis.

By Anton Korinek.

The British War on Slavery

In August of 1833 the British passed legislation abolishing slavery within the British Empire and putting more than 800,000 enslaved Africans on the path to freedom. To make this possible, the British government paid a huge sum, £20 million or about 5% of GDP at the time, to compensate/bribe the slaveowners into accepting the deal. In inflation adjusted terms this is about £2.5 billion today (2025) but relative to GDP the British spent an equivalent of about $170 billion to free the slaves, a very large expenditure.

HMS Black Joke firing on Spanish slaver El Almirante. Nicholas Matthews Condy, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Indeed, the expenditure was so large that the money was borrowed and the final payments on the debt were not made until 2015. When in 2015 a tweet from the British Treasury revealed this surprising fact, there was a paroxysm of outrage as if slaveholders were still being paid off. I see the compensation in much more positive terms.

Of course, in an ideal world, compensation would have been paid to the slaves, not the slaveowners. Every man has a property in his own person and it was the slaves who had had their property stolen. In an ideal world, however, slavery would never have happened. Thus, the question the British abolitionists faced is not what happens in an ideal world but how do we get from where we are to a better world? Compensating the slaveowners was the only practical and peaceful way to get to a better world. As the great abolitionist William Wilberforce said on his deathbed “Thank God that I should have lived to witness a day in which England is willing to give twenty millions sterling for the abolition of slavery!”

The 1833 Slavery Abolition Act was preceded by the 1807 Slave Trade Act which had banned trade in slaves. In an excellent new paper, The long campaign: Britain’s fight to end the slave trade, economist historians Yi Jie Gwee and Hui Ren Tan assemble new archival data to assess how the Royal Navy’s anti slave-trade patrols expanded over time, how effective they were at curtailing the trade, the influence of supply-side enforcement versus demand-side changes on ending the trade, and why Britain persisted with this costly campaign.

Britain’s naval suppression campaign began on a modest scale but the campaign grew in strength throughout the 19th century, peaking in the late 1840s to early 1850s when over 14% of the entire Royal Navy fleet was deployed to anti-slavery patrols. The British patrols captured some 1,600 ships and freed some 150,000 people destined for slavery but they were at best only modestly successful at reducing the slave trade. The big impact came when Brazil, the largest remaining market for enslaved labor (by the mid-19th century, nearly 80% of trans-Atlantic slave voyages sailed under Brazilian or Portuguese flags), enacted its anti slave-trade law in 1850. Britain’s campaign was not without influence on the demand side however as passage of the Aberdeen Act in 1845 allowed the Royal Navy to seize Brazilian slave ships and that put pressure on Brazil and helped spur the 1850 law.

The suppression patrols were expensive (consuming ships, men, and funds), and Britain derived no direct economic benefit from them. Yet, even during the Napoleonic Wars, the Opium Wars, and the Crimean War, the Royal Navy continued to station ships, even high-tech steam ships, off West Africa to catch slavers. Due to the expense, the patrols were controversial and there were attempts to end them. Gwee and Tan look at the votes on ending the patrols and find that ideology was the dominant factor explaining support for the patrols, that is a principled opposition to the slave trade and a belief in the moral cause of abolition kept Britain in the war against slavery even at considerable expense.

Ordinarily, I teach politics without romance and look for interest as an explanation of political action and while I don’t doubt that doing good and doing well were correlated, even during abolition, I also agree with Gwee and Tan that the British war on slavery was primarily driven by ideology and moral principle as both the compensation plan and the support of the anti-slavery patrols attest.

British taxpayers shouldered an enormous military and financial burden to eliminate slavery, reflecting a generosity of spirit and a sincere attempt to address a moral wrong—an act of atonement that stands as one of the most unusual and significant in history.

My Hope Axis podcast with Anna Gát

Here is the YouTube, here is transcript access, here is their episode summary:

The brilliant @tylercowen joins @TheAnnaGat for a lively, wide-ranging conversation exploring hope from the perspective of insiders and outsiders, the obsessed and the competitive, immigrants and hard workers. They talk about talent and luck, what makes America unique, whether the dream of Internet Utopia has ended, and how Gen-Z might rebel. Along the way: Jack Nicholson, John Stuart Mill, road trips through Eastern Europe, the Enlightenment of AI, and why courage shapes the future.

Excerpt:

Tyler Cowen: But the top players I’ve met, like Anand or Magnus Carlsen or Kasparov, they truly hate losing with every bone in their body. They do not approach it philosophically. They can become very miserable as a result. And that’s very far from my attitudes. It shaped my life in a significant way.

Anna Gát: I was so surprised. I was like, what? But actually, what? In Maggie Smith-high RP—what? This never occurred to me that losing can be approached philosophically.

Tyler Cowen: And I think always keeping my equanimity has been good for me, getting these compound returns over long periods of time. But if you’re doing a thing like chess or math or sports that really favors the young, you don’t have all those decades of compound returns. You’ve got to motivate yourself to the maximum extent right now. And then hating losing is super useful. But that’s just—those are not the things I’ve done. The people who hate losing should do things that are youth-weighted, and the people who have equanimity should do things that are maturity and age-weighted with compounding returns.

Excellent discussion, lots of fresh material.  Here is the Hope Axis podcast more generally.  Here is Anna’s Interintellect project, worthy of media attention.  Most of all it is intellectual discourse, but it also seems to be the most successful “dating service” I am aware of.

The evolution of the economics job market

In the halcyon days of 2015-19, openings on the economics job market hovered at around 1900 per year. In 2020, Covid was a major shock, but the market bounced back quickly in 2021 and 2022. Since then, though, the market has clearly been in a funk. 2023, my job market year, saw a sudden dip in postings. 2024 was even worse, with openings falling 16% lower than the 2015-19 average.

At the time, the sudden fall in 2023 seemed mysterious—it was an otherwise healthy year for the broader labor market. In hindsight, it seems like the 2021-22 recovery masked some underlying weakness. The 2020 job market had 500 fewer openings than the 2014-19 average; 2021 and 2022 together produced only around 100 more jobs than the 2014-19 average. In other words, the recovery never made up for the pandemic; by this crude logic, around 400 economist jobs were “destroyed”.

And of course, all of this decline occurred before the litany of disasters that have recently hit the Econ job market. In May, Jerome Powell announced that the Federal Reserve—perhaps the largest employer of economists in America—would cut its workforce by 10%. The federal government has frozen hiring, as has the World Bank. Hit by the dual threat of fines and looming cuts to federal funding, HarvardMITthe University of WashingtonNotre Dame, Northwestern University, among others, have announced hiring freezes and budget cuts.

Here is more from Oliver Kim, who also offers a much broader discussion of the meaning of all this.

Housing 101

John Arnold points us to this table on new apartments and pointedly notes that the population of LA (18.5 m) is more than 7 times that of Austin (2.5m).

MR readers will not be surprised to learn that apartment prices are falling in Austin.

Meanwhile the WSJ reports another shocker, New York’s Airbnb Crackdown, in Force for Two Years, Hasn’t Improved Housing Supply. But guess what has happened? Ok, you don’t have to guess. Hotel prices have increased:

Hotels tend to benefit from tighter Airbnb restrictions, especially in New York City. Significantly reducing the number of apartments that can be rented for less than 30 days undeniably boosts demand for hotel rooms in a city visited by tens of millions of tourists a year.

Without the law, “we would be in a catastrophic situation,” said hotelier Richard Born, who owns 24 hotels across the city.

Patrick Collison on the Irish Enlightenment

Most of all, the Irish Enlightenment seems to me an instance of small group theory. I’m fond of the thought that between great man and structuralist theories of history there lies an intermediate position: the small group, a colocated cauldron for iconoclastic thinking, can as a collective pioneer a novel direction. The romantics in Jena, the founders of Silicon Valley, the musicians behind punk. Unsurprisingly, the early Irish thinkers are closely connected. Swift and Berkeley attended the same school and were good friends. Hutcheson and Berkeley debated publicly, while Burke’s work is clearly downstream of Hutcheson’s.

And this:

How should we view the movement as a whole? Well, the timing is important: Cantillon published his Essai in 1755, Swift Drapier’s Letters in 1724, and Berkeley The Querist in 1735. It seems to me that, before 1750, the Irish thinkers have a strong claim to leading the world in the field of economics and to having collectively sketched out much of the core of the field in broadly correct terms. In Petty you have economic statistics; in Cantillon you have risk, market pricing, and much else; in Berkeley, you have a theory of national banking plus development economics; in Swift you have proto-monetarism. The claim is not that they figured everything out or were right on all points, but which other school or group could you rank ahead of them? Smith published Wealth of Nations in 1776 and The French physiocrats, who were very important, came later: Quesnay’s first piece wasn’t published until 1756.

Do read the whole short essay.