Category: Education
Diversity Is Our Strength?
Diversity is our strength is a common motto. Indeed it is one of GMU’s core values but what is the scientific evidence for this thesis? A new scoping review:
Recent years have witnessed many strong claims that ‘diversity’ leads to more original and impactful science, which is a science-focused form of what we call “The Diversity Hypothesis.” However, what evidence supports the claim that diversity enhances scientific output or impact? This pre-registered rapid scoping review seeks to collate and evaluate the scientific evidence for the Diversity Hypothesis…
…Based on over 100 scientific articles, we find that only between 15% and 28% of results reported in the literature are consistent with the hypothesis, with the balance of the results not being consistent with it.
…Overall, the results of the analysis section indicate that there is little empirical evidence that diversity improves scientific output and/or impact. In fact, with the possible exception of disciplinary diversity—a type of informational or viewpoint diversity operationalized at the team level—the majority of the evidence seems to point in the other direction. These findings are robust regardless of how the data is parsed and analyzed. The same conclusions can be drawn looking at the full data set, only the population-adjusted results, or only the results of high quality based on the MMAT analysis.
Hat tip: Colin Wright.
The mathematicians rebel against AI
Here is the statement, signed by Terry Tao among many other math notables, most of you probably have read it by now. I do not accept the most cynical interpretations of this proclamation. Some of you for instance may recall that I made and indeed stressed a similar point in the last chapter of my recent “generative book” on marginalism. In some near future, perhaps fewer economists will carry around marginalist insights and modes of thought in their heads, since you can just get the right answer by pressing the proverbial button on the AI.
I find this future disturbing, and not altogether pleasant for me personally, given how much personal status I have wrapped up in particular modes of economic thought. Yet I also know the Bastiat distinction between the seen and the unseen, and I expect the benefits to economic science from AI will be enormous, even if current practitioners cannot foresee most of those benefits today.
I do very much differ with at least one part of the mathematicians’ proclamation. They write: “…whether these changes ultimately benefit the field or have a destructive effect will in large part be determined by the decisions of the humans in control of this new technology.” There is no actual argument for that proposition, and I would sooner expect that the main “action variable” is how well the mathematicians adapt to the new reality. For instance there is nothing stopping the mathematics community from awarding status, pay, and promotions to people who “fill in the important blanks in math understanding,” even if an AI already has proven or disproven the underlying theorems. If that kind of work is so important, we still can do it and reward it professionally. In the meantime, I expect the funding for mathematics, and the interest in the topic, to rise considerably, at least in the medium term. All of a sudden, math matters much more than it used to, all the more so if P vs. NP happens to go the wrong way, or if the distribution of the primes turns out to be a little too predictable.
The mathematicians may not in every way enjoy being the subordinates or handmaidens of the AIs, but that is a change in status they simply will have to get used to, just as I realize AIs someday will end up as better column and blog writers than I am. I do not look to the companies — which I fully expect to “act like companies” — to somehow manage, moderate, or assuage that pending trend. It really is up to me to parlay my current intellectual portfolio into new, more AI-compatible intellectual and yes also marketing approaches. I’ve been given plenty of “legs up” along the way already, as is true for the Fields Medal winners as well, and it is up to me to figure out how to contribute in the future.
Might someone not invent/discover/prompt a way to use AIs to produce, articulate, and teach “more mathematical understanding” along the way? I get that solving famous dramatic math problems is the current commercial priority of the major AI companies. But as the AI space grows, these other paths hardly seem unlikely to me, and in fact the human mathematicians are the ones who can do the most to lead the way along those dimensions.
In this regard the current manifestation of complaints seems oddly early. “I didn’t like the first week or two of your intellectual revolution” is an accurate, and perhaps better reframed way of putting it. At which point perhaps a bit of patience is needed before anything else? These days, we all have more mathematical resources at our disposal, and so a bit of celebration is in order as well.
What should I ask Kevin Roose?
Yes I will be doing a podcast with him. From Wikipedia:
Kevin Roose…is an American author and journalist. He is the author of three books, and is a technology columnist and podcast host for The New York Times. He wrote a book about Liberty University, an evangelical Christian university known for strict rules imposed on students…
Kevin of course has a new book coming out, namely The AGI Chronicles: The Inside Story of the Race to Create an Artificial Superintelligence. I have yet to read it, but I expect it to be gripping.
So what should I ask him?
Reasons to go to college
That is the topic of my latest Free Press column, here is one excerpt:
…college is a great place to make friends, date, and possibly meet a spouse. Those features are ever more important as America suffers a crisis of loneliness. Furthermore, if you think that artificial intelligence may displace a lot of jobs, or just reduce work hours, marrying well will become more important. The title of the new essay by Clara Collier says it all: “After Work, We’ll Have Each Other.” You are also going to live longer, so think hard about who you wish to spend that time with.
The data show that college-educated people are more likely to marry, and to stay married. More generally, college-educated folks have superior social indicators of all kinds, including resistance to alcohol, drug, and gambling addiction. (Charles Murray wrote a whole book on this theme, called Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010.)
If you have a bachelor’s degree and are over 25 years of age, your chance of being married is 64 percent. If you have only a high school degree, your odds of being married are an even 50 percent.
For divorce, the results are more dramatic yet. The chance of a woman remaining married for at least 20 years is 78 percent if she went to college, but 41 percent if she is only a high school graduate. For men, the gradient is less sharp though still significant—namely, 65 percent versus 47 percent.
People who finished college also have more extensive networks of friends. For instance they are twice as likely to have six or more close friends, and less than half as likely to have no close friends at all.
There are some private sector jobs where you can spend four years alongside the same group of people and then have social networks to stay in touch over the following years. But all too often people come and go in their jobs and lose touch with former colleagues rapidly, or maybe never share much of a common experience in the first place. College seems to do an especially good job of keeping people connected.
We do not know the extent to which these relationships are causal ones. That’s to say, does going to college induce better outcomes, or are the people who will have better outcomes in any case more likely to attend college in the first place? Probably some of both. In any case, it is better to have this force on your side, even if you are not sure how important it is.
So, in sum, while the money premium from college is falling, the friends and marriage premium from college is going up and probably will rise further still.
Of course those are not the only reasons. That said, I do think going to college makes less sense, at the margin, than it did say seven or eight years ago, as I outline in the piece.
Emergent Ventures winners, 59th cohort
Tym Syrytczyk, London, autonomous vehicles in the UK.
Shane Regan, Long Island, 16, AI agents.
Maximilian Kornstein, 15, Atlanta area, agents and general career support.
Irene Chen and Jessica Dai, UC Berkeley, data on peptides use.
Evan Warfel, Bay Area, updated meta-analyses through AI.
Daniel Dominguez Gomez, biomedical think tank for Mexico.
Malhaar Agrawal, U Penn., prediction markets and clinical trials.
Andrei Russel Ismael, Harvard, biomedical start-up.
Benedict Springbett, London, conference on the importance of legal issues for UK growth.
Metin Metin, Izmir, Turkey, 15, AI and brain organoid electrophysiology.
Ben Vyshedskiy, Harvard, biology podcast.
Afra Wang, Bay Area, podcast and study of Chinese AI.
Joe Hazell, LSE, AI and macroeconomics.
Anne Arno, Krakow, writing and biography.
Real GDP Per Capita and the Standard of Living
We are freshening up some of our videos with updated data so now is a good time to remind everyone that Modern Principles of Economics is best principles of economics textbook; great videos, clear writing and excellent applications and examples!
The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era
After expanding for four decades, the U.S. college wage premium is experiencing a sustained contraction, dropping sharply from 0.626 in 2022 to 0.575 in 2026. Using Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group data through 2026, we show that standard market-clearing supply-and demand accounting implies an unprecedented drop in relative demand for college labor-the first sustained negative relative demand growth in a series spanning back to 1914. Linking individual wage data to task-based generative AI exposure, we document that post-2022 wage growth slowed disproportionately in high-exposure occupations, which employ a disproportionate share of college graduates. By 2026, going from zero occupational AI exposure to full exposure had a negative effect on wages of -0.086. Combined with the college-non-college exposure gap, this mechanism accounts for roughly 28 percent of the total drop in the college wage premium from 2022 to 2026. While noncausal, these patterns indicate that task displacement in AI-exposed white-collar occupations plays a quantitatively meaningful role in the recent compression of the aggregate skill premium.
I do not see AI as driving these changes, but an interesting result nonetheless, from José Azar, Mireia Gine, and Javier Sanz-Espín. Via Anecdotal.
*Visions from San Francisco Bay*
European and American capitalism were different. The violence of human clashes in America took place on the surface, in the open. The violence in Europe became formalized, coalesced with class divions hallowed by centuries; it was interiorized, ingrained, or baked in, if one may use such an expression. American capitalism was founded on daring, resourcefulness, largesse, waste; European capitalism was founded on one powerful passion — miserliness. These patterns, which still endure, explain why America succeeded in creating a vast, new sector of the economy adapted to needs that become increasingly evident the closer we come to the twenty-first century: the sector of the universities, research institutes, laboratories, with billions of dollars invested in them. Western Europe, where education always has been the preserve of a narrow elite, failed to produce anything like it. The prodigality of private capital in America made the beginnings possible; money from taxes joined in at the next stage. Miserliness with capital in Europe effectively prevented the laying of foundations for this new sector, and it is doubtful whether the government treasuries will ever be able to over come ever-widening gap.
That is from Czeslaw Milosz’s Visions from San Francisco Bay.
What should I ask Yiyang Zhuge (诸葛一杨), also known as Zhong Shu (仲树)?
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her. She is best known to Western audiences for her interview with Christopher Nolan, but she has numerous other achievements:
Yiyang Zhuge is a political theorist, political columnist, and a translator of German and Greek philosophical texts. She is an instructor at Brandeis University, and a PhD Candidate at Boston College.
Yiyang is a major translator of Hannah Arendt into Chinese. She has translated The Human Condition, Life of the Mind, Men in Dark Times, collected poetry, Die verborgene Tradition, and Rahel Varnhagen: The Life of a Jewess. She has given numerous lectures and published numerous public-facing articles on Arendt.
Yiyang published the first Greek-to-Chinese translation of Plutarch’s Moralia, a best-selling philosophy book in 2025.
She runs Princeton University Press’s Political Philosophy Book Club, where she interviews important Western academics for the Chinese audience.
Yiyang is a public intellectual in China. She reports on American higher ed monthly at print magazine Caixin Weekly. She is a political commenter on Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV (here and here). She hosts great books programs on vistopia and has contributed essays on Machiavelli, Rousseau, Tocqueville, Arendt at vistopia. She hosts the most popular Mandarin political philosophy podcast “Monologues of a Committed Observer” with 1m+ subscribers.
So what should I ask her?
Emergent Ventures winners, 58th cohort
Jethro Elsden, London area, to study the regulatory structure of the UK using AI.
Paula Benedetti, Buenos Aires, marine biology work in Brazil.
Nyida Gyal, 17, northern Virginia, AI and data.
Gabe Sekeres, Cornell, what if an economist just lets AI run?,
Ollie Payne, NYC, Future Aesthetics Foundation.
Jacob Watson-Howland, London, podcast on science and progress.
Cameron Monroe, UC Santa Cruz, archaeology in Ghana.
Björn O. Öste, archaeology and Peru.
Oliver Pryce, Cambridge, mathematics, AI and a unified representation of geometry and physics.
Demetre Tsiklauri, Tblisi, 16, general career support, building a student network in Georgia.
Shannon Wong, Paris/Antarctica, general career support.
Lydia Farnham, London, matching donors and projects.
Common sense in charge
…children are increasingly seen as interfering with the freedom of parents; views on whether mothers of young children should work have become markedly more progressive and account for a substantially larger share of the decline among the tertiary-educated; and fewer people believe that women or men need children to lead a fulfilled life. This last attitude changed most over the decade and is the largest contributor to the fall in intended fertility, above all among less-educated women.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
My very interesting Conversation with Daron Acemoglu
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary:
Daron Acemoglu returns for his second appearance with a new book, What Happened to Liberal Democracy?, which Tyler reads as an attempt to redefine and revitalize liberalism for our times. Where Daron’s first visit was about how states and societies contend for the narrow corridor in which liberty survives, this one asks what liberals themselves got wrong, and the answer implicates the educated elite—that is to say, you.
Tyler and Daron discuss what’s wrong with social contract theories and Rousseau’s general will, whether Acemoglu is more objectivist than Rorty, why he blames left liberalism’s own establishment power for its collapse, what standard is left once you refuse to have a book of higher values, nondomination versus noninterference, who counts as working class, why automation alone will not lead to widespread prosperity, how he can call himself a free speech absolutist while wanting to regulate social media, why he worries we’ve given up on educating Americans, whether teachers’ unions need to be reconstituted, what the life expectancy for an educated twenty year old is today, whether open-source models undercut the centralization worry, what pro-worker AI actually means, why the fertility crisis leaves him strangely close to a real business cycle position, whether AI will raise his own already prodigious paper output, why Armenia has disappointed economically, what he wants to learn next, and more.
For an excerpt, let us start from near the beginning:
COWEN: Richard Rorty had a consensus-based defense of liberal democracy. Is your view the same as his, or are there some metrics along which it’s different? Are you more objectivist in some way?
ACEMOGLU: I wouldn’t say it’s more objectivist. I think my commitment in my mind has always been that it’s impossible for us at any point in time not just to know what’s really the absolute truth, but also to have a clear map of what is the right stance. In the same way that I think many people would agree science makes gradual and sometimes uncertain progress toward some better understanding, I think morally, philosophically, we also have to have gradual uncertain evolution toward what we agree on. Objectivism, in some sense, is too strict.
COWEN: Say we’re not evolving toward greater agreement.
ACEMOGLU: No, sometimes we go back.
COWEN: Today, it seems we’re not evolving toward greater agreement, right?
ACEMOGLU: We’re not. Absolutely not. I think you can blame that on reactions to globalization, reactions to technology, better authoritarian challenges. This is the most uncomfortable part because I see myself firmly within the left liberal tradition. I think it’s partly because of the failure of left liberalism. In some sense, if you think of why did Rome fail or collapse, we can tell a story about the barbarians were really too strong. No, really, Rome collapsed because internally it had problems that opened up weaknesses against outside invaders as well as some inside problems.
It’s the same with left liberalism. I think it became quite influential throughout much of the Western world and some of the emerging economies as well over the last 70, 80 years. It did not use that establishment power just in the right way, creating its own weaknesses that made it much more vulnerable to outside attacks. That’s why I think we are now going back because we are at an interregnum period in which ideas are battling again. In some sense, it’s just like the early 19th century where you had all these very different ideas and they were trying to get a toehold in the imagination of people. I think we are going through a period like that, except that there are really many more confusing ideas out there.
COWEN: Say when we’re not evolving toward greater consensus, what’s the external standard you introduce to judge which are the correct ideas and which not? Like Rorty, you need one, though.
ACEMOGLU: I don’t have one.
COWEN: Then why believe in what you believe?
ACEMOGLU: Okay. I think what I believe is, first of all, not as an external standard—I don’t know whether external standard or internal standard is the right word—but that we have to defend some degree of individual freedom because everything starts from that, both in terms of our meaningful lives, but also any kind of improvement in the human condition requires individual initiative, and that individual initiative is impossible without some amount of freedom, a meaningful freedom, not just saying, “Okay, you have the freedom to pray, but you cannot express that idea with others or you cannot turn it into action.” Some meaningful freedom.
That is the only starting point that we need to have. Around that, we need to build things with some sort of consensus within society. That’s what I think liberalism has to recognize, that you have to enshrine those rights, but then give enough elbow room to people to form their own community-level agreements.
COWEN: You present some different values in the book. One is nondomination. Another is noninterference. There’s others. When they clash, what’s the metric you introduce to decide how to resolve that clash?
ACEMOGLU: I wish I had a perfect answer for that. I don’t.
COWEN: You have an imperfect answer.
ACEMOGLU: I have an imperfect answer. I think noninterference by itself isn’t enough because, at least as read or as interpreted by some philosophers and economists, it is just about being left alone from higher authority or typically state-level authority, although it could be some other authorities as well. We do also need opportunities and some way of actualizing our intentions and our freedom. That’s what the idea of nondomination, which goes back to Roman Republican times, recognizes.
It is not, in my mind, an extremely interventionist philosophy. It doesn’t say the state knows it best or that the state should always have an opportunity to override individual or group-level decisions. It does emphasize that providing people some amount of protection against those who have much greater physical or other power relative to them is something that cannot be done at the individual level. It has to have a community-level component.
COWEN: That’s a good answer, but is it an answer to the question? If we’re Sidgwick, we might say, when values clash, we look to utility, or maybe it’d be cost-benefit analysis to decide which gets priority. You’re not willing to say that, so why not? What’s wrong with that answer?
Very much interesting throughout.
Do Faculty Affect Student Partisanship?
We study whether Democratic college professors make their students more liberal. We link voter data to salary records from 33 state flagships and show that faculty skew Democratic, especially in the humanities and social sciences. We then use student transcripts from one flagship to estimate causal effects. Students become more liberal during college regardless of major and sort toward ideologically similar instructors. Exploiting plausibly random variation in when instructors teach courses, we find no effect of faculty partisanship on student partisanship. Text analysis shows exposure to liberal topics reflects student demand rather than instructor supply, leaving little room for indoctrination.
That is from a new paper by Micah Baum, Joaquín Endara, and Annaliese Paulson. Via Jay Fan Bavel.
My excellent Conversation with Julia Ioffe
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is from the episode summary:
Julia joined Tyler to discuss why so many of Russia’s great constructivist painters were women, why the tsarist government established women’s medical courses in 1872, changing attitudes towards abortion and birth control in the 20th century, why the Soviet regime turned prudish, how Khrushchev’s plan to “replace the dead” institutionalized single motherhood, Russian superwomen, why Jewish men were a prized commodity amid rampant antisemitism, the cultural significance of flowers, why a few Russian names still dominate, why Russian women think Western feminists have their priorities backwards, how gender attitudes and autocracy feed into each other, three underrated Russian novels, what she wants to write about next, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: I’m sure you’ve noticed that quite a few American men will marry Russian or Soviet women, but not so many American women want to marry Russian or Soviet men. It’s a kind of market test, right? Why exactly are the men so bad? Why are they such louts? Maybe that’s a rude way to put it, but surely in one’s mind, one asks that question, right?
IOFFE: It’s a question that a lot of us who were living in Moscow in the late aughts and the teens were asking that all the time. I remember a friend of mine, a male Western TV correspondent, saying, “The women are so gorgeous here, but the men are so ugly and unfashionable.” He had lived all over the place and worked all over the place, and he said, “I’ve never seen such disparity,” and it was true.
The women like me, Western women who were living and working in Moscow at the time, said, “We’ll just wait till we get home.” I think it’s because of what I talked about before, or what you and I talked about before, which is that so many men were killed in the first half of the 20th century, and so few demands were placed on them because they were seen as an endangered species, in general. They were a resource to be fought over and protected.
In 1968, when the West was undergoing a sexual revolution, and women were fighting for more rights, more equality, the Soviets were talking about saving the men, protecting the men, and saying, “We’ve done enough for the women, but our men die young.” That’s after a lifetime of alcohol abuse, smoking, being largely irrelevant in the home, and obviously politically, because it’s a totalitarian system, so let’s work on protecting them.
Soviet men, and then Russian men, became these coddled, spoiled children essentially, where on one hand, so little was asked of them that it’s the bigotry of low expectations. So little was asked of them, and very little was expected of them, and they rose to meet those very low expectations.
On top of that, the idea of what made a man a manly man in Russia is he’s physically strong, but he dies a young death, or he dies an early death. He drinks a lot, he smokes a lot, he’s reckless, he’s careless, and takes a lot of risk, and that usually means an early death. If you have fewer men to begin with, and as a Russian woman, you see them dying early, and you’re fighting over them, what is the impetus for men to take care of themselves, to act better, be better, if there’s always going to be a beautiful, super competent woman to take him if you don’t want him?
COWEN: These points you’re raising, historically, do you feel it’s been quite different for Soviet and Russian Jews or the same?
IOFFE: I think it’s a little bit different. The caveat is, and I hate that I have to say this, Jews are people too, and subject to the same social forces that everybody else is, but culturally, Soviet Jews were more educated as a rule, more urban, and culturally came from a very family-centric tradition. Russian women, actually, for all the intense antisemitism in the Soviet Union, in Russia, Jewish men were actually a prized commodity for Russian women.
COWEN: With ethnic Russian women?
IOFFE: Yes. Ethnic Ukrainian women, you name it, because the cultural stereotype was that Jewish men don’t drink, they don’t hit you, they are family-focused, family-oriented, they’re involved fathers, they bring their money home, they don’t waste it at the bar or on bottles of vodka with their buddies. That’s the kind of man you would want as a husband. Ironically, the same polls that will tell you that Russians would want their daughters to marry a Jew will tell you that they don’t want their president to be a Jew.
One of my favorite episodes of the year, interesting throughout, and I very much enjoyed Julia’s book Motherland: A Feminist History of Modern Russia.
Solve for the (Refine) equilibrium
We’re proud to announce that Refine has signed partnerships with two leading publishers in economics. Both the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society now use Refine’s AI-assisted technical verification as part of their publication processes.
Here is the thread. And more comments here.