Category: Political Science
What is the Best-Case Scenario for a Trump Presidency?
The economy is strong and Trump has a significant opportunity to simply take credit for that if he avoids major disruptions. While he must fulfill some of his campaign promises, people voted for Trump not for his policies per se. Trump has leeway. No one will accuse him of flip-flopping. While these are not my first-best policies, Trump won against astounding media and elite opposition and an attempted assassination. The people have spoken, so here’s a best-case outline for following through on Trump’s policies without cratering the economy:
- Trade Policy: Moderate tariff increases on China. No Chinese electric cars for us. But drop the “tariffs on everything” language. He can always say his rhetoric was a threat to get other countries to lower their tariffs. Let’s instead talk tough against our enemies but shift toward “friend-shoring”, maintaining or even lowering tariffs with allied nations, such as Canada, Europe, and possibly India, as part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence.
- Border Control: Trump must strengthen the border. But let’s limit deportations to individuals who arrived in the past four years. Control the border, throw some illegals out but minimize human misery by not deporting long-term residents and their US-citizen families. Declare a win while avoiding economic disruption and strengthening the police state.
- Vaccine and Health Policy: Appoint Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head a committee on vaccine policy and, after several years of investigation, write a report. Take medical freedom more seriously.
- Crypto Regulation: Appoint Hester M. Peirce to head the SEC. Stabilize the regulatory environment for cryptocurrency. Simplify tax rules for crypto. Support digital dollar growth and treat stablecoins as what they are, namely, the US dollar dominating world electronic payments.
- Space and Innovation: U.S. Space Force! Commit to Mars exploration and position the U.S. as a leader in space innovation. Get advice from Elon.
- US AI. Immediately approve Meta for its nuclear-AI program. Swat the bees. Approve Amazon as well. Tell the FERC that their job is to increase the supply of energy. Keep the Chip Act but make it clear that the goal is to dominate the space not make jobs or social policy. We are the world leaders in AI. Let’s keep it that way.
- Kill Bureaucracy: Let Elon Musk take the chainsaw to a few bureaucracies like Javier Milei. Afuera! Afuera! Afuera! Streamline bureaucratic processes, cut red tape and invigorate tech and infrastructure initiatives.
- Respect Meritocracy: End race and gender based discrimination in government programs.
- Expand Housing Supply: Build baby build! Trump is a natural to lead this. Trump the developer! Incentivize states and localities to streamline zoning laws and reduce restrictions that hamper new housing developments. Increase housing supply.
Each of these policies is consistent with Trump’s priorities and rhetoric and has broad appeal for voters who value economic opportunity, accountability, and national resilience. The economy is strong. Trump has the wind at his back. If he is sensible, all of this would make for a successful presidency. If Trump wants the judgment of history, the path is open should he choose to walk it.
Political Sorting in the U.S. Labor Market
That is the central topic of the job market paper of Sahil Chinoy from Harvard University. Here is the abstract:
We study political sorting in the labor market and examine its sources. Merging voter file data and online résumés to create a panel of 34.5 million people, we show that Democrats and Republicans choose distinctive career paths and employers. This leads to marked segregation at the workplace: a Democrat or Republican’s coworker is 10% more likely to share their party than expected. Then, we ask whether segregation arises because jobs shape workers’ politics or because workers’ politics shape their job choices. To study the first, we use a quasi-experimental design leveraging the timing of job transitions. We find that uncommitted workers do adopt the politics of their workplace, but not workers who were already registered Democrats or Republicans. The average effect is too small to generate the segregation we document. To study the second, we measure the intensity of workers’ preferences for politically compatible jobs using two survey experiments motivated by the observational data. Here, we find that the median Democrat or Republican would trade off 3% in annual wages for an ideologically congruent version of a similar job. These preferences are strong enough to generate segregation similar to the observed levels.
Co-authored with Martin Koenen, also a job market candidate from Harvard. Koenen’s other papers, at the link, look very interesting too.
Reupping my post on the vibe shift
You can re-read it here. Much-maligned at the time, I might add.
Does the internet limit immigrant assimilation?
This paper documents the effects of new communication technologies on immigrants’ socio-economic integration, spatial and job segregation, and networking behavior. Combining data on home-country Internet expansion shocks with data on immigrants’ linguistic skill, naturalization, location choice, and employment in the US, I find that home-country Internet slows down immigrants’ social and economic integration. The effect is driven by lower-skilled and younger immigrants. On the other hand, home-country Internet decreases spatial and job segregation with co-nationals, and increases immigrants’ subjective well-being. For the mechanisms, I use the American Time Use Survey data to show that home-country Internet changes networking behavior of immigrants. I also explore the role of (i) return intentions, (ii) international phone calls, and (iii) Facebook usage. The evidence is consistent with a simple Roy model, augmented with a choice between destination- and origin-country ties. Overall, this paper shows how new ICTs transform the links between immigration, diversity, and social cohesion.
That is from the job market paper of Alexander Yarkin from Brown University.
My EconEd talk on how technology is remixing the political spectrum
Here is the video, delivered in Chicago, mostly fresh material not in my other talks. Twenty-seven mimnutes or so, recommended.
My Conversation with the excellent Christopher Kirchhoff
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the intro:
Christopher Kirchhoff is an expert in emerging technology who founded the Pentagon’s Silicon Valley office. He’s led teams for President Obama, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and CEO of Google. He’s worked in worlds as far apart as weapons development and philanthropy. His pioneering efforts to link Silicon Valley technology and startups to Washington has made him responsible for $70 billion in technology acquisition by the Department of Defense. He’s penned many landmark reports, and he is the author of Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley are Transforming the Future of War.
Tyler and Christopher cover the ascendancy of drone warfare and how it will affect tactics both off and on the battlefield, the sobering prospect of hypersonic weapons and how they will shift the balance of power, EMP attacks, AI as the new arms race (and who’s winning), the completely different technology ecosystem of an iPhone vs. an F-35, why we shouldn’t nationalize AI labs, the problem with security clearances, why the major defense contractors lost their dynamism, how to overcome the “Valley of Death” in defense acquisition, the lack of executive authority in government, how Unit X began, the most effective type of government commission, what he’ll learn next, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: Now, I never understand what I read about hypersonic missiles. I see in the media, “China has launched the world’s first nuclear-capable hypersonic, and it goes 10x the speed of sound.” And people are worried. If mutual assured destruction is already in place, what exactly is the nature of the worry? Is it just we don’t have enough response time?
KIRCHHOFF: It’s a number of things, and when you add them up, they really are quite frightening. Hypersonic weapons, because of the way they maneuver, don’t necessarily have to follow a ballistic trajectory. We have very sophisticated space-based systems that can detect the launch of a missile, particularly a nuclear missile, but right then you’re immediately calculating where it’s going to go based on its ballistic trajectory. Well, a hypersonic weapon can steer. It can turn left, it can turn right, it can dive up, it can dive down.
COWEN: But that’s distinct from hypersonic, right?
KIRCHHOFF: Well, ICBMs don’t have the same maneuverability. That’s one factor that makes hypersonic weapons different. Second is just speed. With an ICBM launch, you have 20 to 25 minutes or so. This is why the rule for a presidential nuclear decision conference is, you have to be able to get the president online with his national security advisers in, I think, five or seven minutes. The whole system is timed to defeat adversary threats. The whole continuity-of-government system is upended by the timeline of hypersonic weapons.
Oh, by the way, there’s no way to defend against them, so forget the fact that they’re nuclear capable — if you want to take out an aircraft carrier or a service combatant, or assassinate a world leader, a hypersonic weapon is a fantastic way to do it. Watch them very carefully because more than anything else, they will shift the balance of military power in the next five years.
COWEN: Do you think they shift the power to China in particular, or to larger nations, or nations willing to take big chances? At the conceptual level, what’s the nature of the shift, above and beyond whoever has them?
KIRCHHOFF: Well, right now, they’re incredibly hard to produce. Right now, they’re essentially in a research and development phase. The first nation that figures out how to make titanium just a little bit more heat resistant, to make the guidance systems just a little bit better, and enables manufacturing at scale — not just five or seven weapons that are test-fired every year, but 25 or 50 or 75 or 100 — that really would change the balance of power in a remarkable number of military scenarios.
COWEN: How much China has them now? Are you at liberty to address that? They just have one or two that are not really that useful, or they’re on the verge of having 300?
KIRCHHOFF: What’s in the media and what’s been discussed quite a bit publicly is that China has more successful R&D tests of hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic weapons are very difficult to make fly for long periods. They tend to self-destruct at some point during flight. China has demonstrated a much fuller flight cycle of what looks to be an almost operational weapon.
COWEN: Where is Russia in this space?
KIRCHHOFF: Russia is also trying. Russia is developing a panoply of Dr. Evil weapons. The latest one to emerge in public is this idea of putting a nuclear payload on a satellite that would effectively stop modern life as we know it by ending GPS and satellite communications. That’s really somebody sitting in a Dr. Evil lair, stroking their cat, coming up with ideas that are game-changing. They’ve come up with a number of other weapons that are quite striking — supercavitating torpedoes that could take out an entire aircraft carrier group. Advanced states are now coming up with incredibly potent weapons.
Intelligent and interesting throughout. Again, I am happy to recommend Christopher’s recent book Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley are Transforming the Future of War, co-authored with Raj M. Shah.
New report on nuclear risk
Phil Tetlock is part of the study, from the Forecasting Research Institute. Obviously this is very importnt. From Tetlock’s email to me:
“In brief, this study is the largest systematic survey of subject matter experts on the risk posed by nuclear weapons. Through a combination of expert interviews and surveys, 110 domain experts and 41 experienced forecasters predicted the likelihood of nuclear conflict, explained the mechanisms underlying their predictions, and forecasted the impact of specific tractable policies on the likelihood of nuclear catastrophe.
Key findings include:
- We asked experts about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe (defined as an event where nuclear weapons cause the death of at least 10 million people) by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Experts assigned a median 4.5% probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, while experienced forecasters put the probability at 1%.
a. Respondents thought that a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO/USA was the adversarial domain most likely to be the cause of a nuclear catastrophe of this scale, however risk was dispersed relatively evenly among the other adversarial domains we asked about: China/USA, North Korea/South Korea, India/Pakistan, and Israel/Iran.
- We asked participants about their beliefs on the likely effectiveness of several policy options aimed at reducing the risk of a nuclear catastrophe. Two policies emerged as clear favorites for most participants: a crisis communications network and nuclear-armed states implementing failsafe reviews. The median expert thought that a crisis communications network would reduce the risk of a nuclear catastrophe by 25%, and failsafe reviews would reduce it by 20%.”
You will find the report here.
AfD vs. Bauhaus
By their aesthetics shall ye know them:
It shaped modern industrial design and continues to inspire architects and product designers the world over, but to some on Germany’s far right, Bauhaus is nothing to celebrate.
As the East German city of Dessau prepares to celebrate next year’s centenary of the famed design school’s move there, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has urged local legislators not to glorify Bauhaus’ cosmopolitan style ethos, saying it negated regional traditions.
The AfD’s proposal, debated and roundly rejected by the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt earlier this week, sparked a predictable outcry: Bauhaus was part of the interwar flourishing of German avant-garde culture that was stamped out by the Nazis when they came to power in 1933.
There are many losers, so it is a debatable question today which political movement has the best aesthetics…
Science and politics podcast
From the Institute for Progress, here is the link, the participants were Caleb Watney, Dylan Matthews, Alexander Berger, and myself. Excerpt:
Tyler Cowen: I would stress just how decentralized science funding is in the United States. The public universities are run at the state level. We have tax incentives for donations where you have to give to a nonprofit, but there’s otherwise very little control over what counts as a viable nonprofit.
One specific issue that I think has become quite large is how much we run our universities through an overhead system. On federal grants and many other kinds of grants, an overhead is charged. The overhead rates are very high, and well above what the actual marginal overhead costs.
You might think that’s a crazy system, and in some ways it is crazy. It means there’s intense pressure on professors to bring in contracts, regardless of the quality of the work. That’s clearly a major negative. Everyone complains about this.
But the hidden upside is that when universities fund themselves through overhead, there’s a kind of indirect free speech privilege because they can spend the overhead how they want. Now, I actually think they are violating the implicit social contract right now by spending the overhead poorly. But for a long while, this was why our system worked well. You had very indirect federal appropriations: some parts of which went to science, other parts of which went to education. It was done on a free speech basis.
But like many good systems, it doesn’t last forever. It gets abused. If we try to clean up the mess — which now in my view clearly is a mess — well, I’m afraid we’ll get a system where Congress or someone else is trying to dictate all the time how the funds actually should be allocated.
That’s a question I’ve thought through a good amount: how or whether we should fix the overhead system? I feel we’ve somehow painted ourselves into a corner where there is no good political way out in any direction. But I think you’ll find case by case that the specifics are really going to matter.
Dylan Matthews: Let’s get into some of the specifics. Do you have an example of the overhead system breaking down that is motivating for you here?
Tyler Cowen: Well, universities are spending more and more of their surplus on staff and facilities — on ends that even if you think they’re defensible in some deep sense like “Oh, we need this building,” it’s about the university. It’s about what leads to long run donations, but it’s seen as a violation of public trust.
The money is neither being spent on possibly useful research, nor educating students. The backlash against universities is huge, most of all in Florida, Texas, and North Carolina. It seems to me that where we are at isn’t stable. How we fund science through universities is, in some ways, collapsing in bad ways. The complaints are often justified, but odds are that we’ll end up with something worse.
Recommended, interesting throughout.
The MR Podcast–Oil Shocks, Price Controls and War
Our second podcast on the 1970s titled Oil Shocks, Price Controls and War is now available! Here’s one bit:
Tabarrok: …Sheikh Ahmed Yamani, in a famous statement, he was the oil minister for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, he’s a leader of OPEC, he says on October 16th, this is 10 days after the war begins, “This is a moment for which I have been waiting for a long time. The moment has come. We are masters of our own commodity.” They raise the price of oil. Oil production falls by about 9 percent to 10 percent. That doesn’t seem on the surface to be a huge amount, but it reveals something which people had not been prepared for, and that was the inelasticity of oil demand.
I would put it this way. I think this is the key idea here. Almost accidentally, the exporting countries had discovered that the demand for oil was more inelastic than anyone had ever realized. The main lesson they drew before 1973, the oil exporting countries thought that the only way to increase revenues was to produce more. After 1973, they learned that an even better way to increase revenues was to produce less.
Here’s another:
COWEN: Since the 1980s, economists, for a number of reasons, have underrated real shocks as a source of business cycles and downturns. You have the Keynesians who didn’t want to talk about it, and then you had the Monetarists, Milton Friedman, who wanted to promote their own recipe, and people just stopped talking about it. Even 2008, which clearly had a lot to do with a major negative shock to aggregate demand, but the price of oil is quite high at the time when that’s breaking, and it was a major factor behind the downturn.
TABARROK: Absolutely.
COWEN: No one wants to talk about that.
Here is the MR Podcast home page. Subscribe now to take a small step toward a much better world: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube.
*A Voyage Around the Queen*
I loved this Craig Brown book, although many of you won’t. A good biography typically brings a subject to life. This biography sets out to convince you that Queen Elizabeth II could never be understood whatsoever, that she was a literal cipher and always was going to stand outside our typical categories. She did love jigsaw puzzles.
Can you stand a book that has sentences like?:
The Queen Mother’s corgis were every bit as edgy.
The Queen was born in 1926, and the book lists some words that were first chronicled in that same year:
Bible belt, business lunch, car park, kitsch, market research, pop song, publicity stunt, recycle, sugar daddy, and totalitarian.
Recommended, for some of you at least. You need to have a touch of mischief in you perhaps?
What do panda rental contracts look like?
Administrators cannot discuss panda illness, death, disease or “any other important matters” without first consulting with their Chinese partners, whose views “shall be fully respected.”
“In cases where release of related information to the outside world or acceptance of media interviews is necessary, it shall be implemented only after communication and consultation between the parties and a consensus is reached,” the contracts read. “And where no consensus is reached, no news shall be released.”
In a statement, the San Diego Zoo said it was common for partners to discuss animal well-being “and come to a mutual understanding before sharing updates publicly.”
Previous contracts did not contain such “information management” restrictions.
Here is more from Mara Hvistendahl at the NYT, interesting throughout.
The Political Transformation of Corporate America, 2001-2022
This article reconciles conflicting views about the political landscape of corporate America with new data on the revealed political preferences of 97,469 corporate directors and executives at 9,005 different U.S. companies. I find that average ideology for these individuals has shifted meaningfully to the left over time, changing from modestly conservative in 2001 to roughly centrist by 2022. This finding supports a middle-ground position between conventional wisdom casting “big business” as a conservative stronghold and revisionist views holding the opposite. Counterfactual simulations and a difference-in-differences design suggest multifaceted causes for these changes, and hand-collected data on corporate stances on LGBTQ-related legislation coupled with an instrumental variables design indicate that individual ideology has large effects on firm-level political activity. Overall, this transformation has profound implications for American politics, as the individuals comprising one of the most powerful interest groups—corporate elites—appear to be fracturing ideologically and to some degree even switching sides.
That is from a new paper by Reilly Steel.
Noah Smith on the vibe shift
My values haven’t become more conservative — my desire for a more economically egalitarian and socially tolerant society has not diminished an iota. You won’t see me bellowing “I didn’t leave my party, my party left ME!!” and storming over to the GOP in a huff. But I have to say that I now doubt the practical effectiveness of some of the policies I embraced in previous years. Others still seem like good ideas, but I’ve been dismayed at their botched implementation where they were tried. And many progressive ideas simply don’t seem like they’ll be able to win majority political support in the near future. It’s looking more and more likely that America is headed for a more conservative decade.
I’m not the only person to have noticed the shift. Dave Weigel recently wrote a post detailing all the ways that Kamala Harris’ campaign is to the right of Biden’s 2020 run, both in terms of tone and rhetoric and in terms of actual policy. Harris and other Dems have touted their tough stances on the border, abandoned big new spending programs, stopped talking about a public option for health insurance, trumpeted their support for Israel, embraced oil drilling, and gone tough on crime. Harris’ policy agenda includes plenty of pro-business and deregulatory ideas. She even brags about owning a gun and being willing to shoot intruders.
Here is the full post. And this, from later on, past the gate:
The sheer range of issues where progressivism seems adrift and directionless leaves me pensive and morose. I believe in the power of wonky technocrats to implement incremental policy tweaks to accelerate the energy transition, fix the immigration system, and make police more effective and less violent. But what’s left to fight for? Other than defending America against the depredations of Trump and the right, what big political goal can mobilize the masses to get out there and vote for left-of-center politicians?
I do see two big bright spots here. The first is industrial policy, which promises not just to restore American manufacturing, but to revitalize whole areas of the country. The second is the abundance agenda and YIMBYism, which promises to provide cheap housing, energy, and transportation for all.
Recommended.
My Conversation with Musa al-Gharbi
I am a big fan of Musa’s work, most of all his new book We Have Never Been Woke: The Cultural Contradictions of a New Elite. As for the podcast, here is the video, audio, and transcript. Here is the episode summary:
Tyler and Musa explore the rise and fall of the “Great Awokening” and more, including how elite overproduction fuels social movements, why wokeness tends to fizzle out, whether future waves of wokeness will ratchet up in intensity, why neuroticism seems to be higher on the political Left, how a great awokening would manifest in a Muslim society, Black Muslims and the Nation of Islam, why Musa left Catholicism, who the greatest sociologist of Islam is, Muslim immigration and assimilation in Europe, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: Let me give you an alternate theory of the Great Awokening, and tell me what’s wrong with it. It’s not really my view, but I hear it a lot.
So on the Left, there’s some long-term investment in teaching in America’s top universities. You produce a lot of troops who could become journalists, and they’re mostly left-leaning. Then 2011, 2012 — there’s something about the interaction of social media and, say, The New York Times and other major outlets, where all of a sudden they have a much bigger incentive to have a lot of articles about race, gender, Black Lives Matter, whatever. When those two things come together, wokeness takes off based on a background in Christianity and growing feminization of society.
By the time you get to something like 2021, enough of mainstream media has broken down that it’s simply social media out there going crazy. That just gives us a lot of diversity of bizarre views rather than just sheer wokeness — and besides, Elon is owning Twitter, so wokeness ends.
What’s wrong with that account?
AL-GHARBI: For one, I do think that some of the factors that you identified are important for contextualizing the current moment. For instance, a lot of the symbolic professions, like law and consulting, academia, journalism — they are being feminized. I do talk a bit in the book about how this matters for understanding the dynamics in a lot of these institutions. Not just over the last 10 years, but over the last several decades, in part because women and men tend to engage in very different forms of status-seeking and competition and things like that. So that does matter.
Things like social media obviously do change the way interactions play out. But you can see, actually, that things like social media or changes in the media landscape after 2010 — one limitation for using those kinds of explanations to explain the current moment is that it becomes hard, then, to understand how or why it was the case that . . .
There were three previous episodes like this, one in the 1920s through the early ’30s, one in the mid-1960s to the late ’70s, and then one in the late ’80s through early ’90s. In all cases where we didn’t have social media, where the structure of media enterprises was importantly different than it is today, and before you had Gen Z “kids these days” with their idiosyncratic attitudes, or before a lot of these professions were as feminized as they were today.
I think all of those factors you said actually do matter, and they matter in the sense — because each of these episodes, there’s so much in common, an insane amount. When you read the book and I walk through some of these — I think a lot of readers will be troubled, maybe, by how similar these episodes are. But they’re also importantly different. They don’t play out identically. They are importantly different: The role that symbolic capitalists occupy in society changed immensely over the last century. The constitution of these fields has changed immensely. There are a lot more women; there are a lot more nonwhite people in these professions than there were in the past, and so on and so forth.
All of those factors you described: I think they actually do matter, especially for understanding the ways in which this period of awokening might differ from previous episodes, but I don’t think they explain why awokenings happen at all.
COWEN: If “woke” recurs, do you think there’s a ratchet effect where it comes back bigger and stronger each time, a bit like the destructiveness of war? Or is it more of a random walk? Like, the next wave of woke in 37 years might be half as strong as the one we just had. What’s your model?
AL-GHARBI: I think it’s random; that depends a little bit on . . .
What I argue in the book is that the — for instance, when we look at the last period of awokening in the late ’80s and early ’90s, it was much less — that was the last time we had these struggles over what they call political correctness, or the PC culture, which we call wokeness today. As I argue in the book, it didn’t last as long, that awokening. It was shorter than most of the others, actually. Shorter than the one in the ’60s, shorter than the one after 2010. It was a little shorter, and it also wasn’t quite as dramatic.
I think there are these kind of contextual factors that significantly inform how severe it is or how long it lasts, how long it’s able to sustain itself or how long it is until the frustrated elites get — enough of them get satisfied that they disengage. My guess is that it’s more of a random walk, but I’m open to persuasion.
Definitely interesting.