Category: Data Source
Does the United States Spend Enough on Public Schools?
I remain happy to provoke my readers:
The United States ranks low among peer countries on the ratio of teacher spending to per capita GDP. Is this (in)efficient? Using a spatial equilibrium model we show that spending on schools is efficient if an increase in school spending funded through local taxes would leave house prices unchanged. By exploiting plausibly exogenous shocks to both school spending and taxes, paired with 25 years of national data on local house prices, we find that an exogenous tax-funded increase in school spending would significantly raise house prices. These findings provide causal evidence that teacher spending in the U.S. is inefficiently low.
That is from a new paper by Patrick J. Bayer, Peter Q. Blair, and Kenneth Whaley. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
Does Peer Review Penalize Scientific Risk Taking?
Scientific projects that carry a high degree of risk may be more likely to lead to breakthroughs yet also face challenges in winning the support necessary to be carried out. We analyze the determinants of renewal for more than 100,000 R01 grants from the National Institutes of Health between 1980 and 2015. We use four distinct proxies to measure risk taking: extreme tail outcomes, disruptiveness, pivoting from an investigator’s prior work, and standing out from the crowd in one’s field. After carefully controlling for investigator, grant, and institution characteristics, we measure the association between risk taking and grant renewal. Across each of these measures, we find that risky grants are renewed at markedly lower rates than less risky ones. We also provide evidence that the magnitude of the risk penalty is magnified for more novel areas of research and novice investigators, consistent with the academic community’s perception that current scientific institutions do not motivate exploratory research adequately.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
Which economic tasks are performed with AI?
I have now read through the very impressive paper on AI tasks to have come out of Anthropic, with Kunal Handa as the lead author, including Dario, Jack, and quite a few others as well. Here is the paper and part of the abstract:
We leverage a recent privacy-preserving system [Tamkin et al., 2024] to analyze over four million Claude.ai conversations through the lens of tasks and occupations in the U.S. Department of Labor’s O*NET Database. Our analysis reveals that AI usage primarily concentrates in software development and writing tasks, which together account for nearly half of all total usage. However, usage of AI extends more broadly across the economy, with ∼ 36% of occupations using AI for at least a quarter of their associated tasks. We also analyze how AI is being used for tasks, finding 57% of usage suggests augmentation of human capabilities (e.g., learning or iterating on an output) while 43% suggests automation (e.g., fulfilling a request with minimal human involvement).
There is also a new paper on related topics by Jonathan Hartley, Filip Jolevski [former doctoral student of mine], Vitor Melo, and Brendan Moore:
We find, consistent with other surveys that Generative AI tools like large language models (LLMs) are most commonly used in the labor force by younger individuals, more highly educated individuals, higher income individuals, and those in particular industries such as customer service, marketing and information technology. Overall, we find that as of December 2024, 30.1% of survey respondents above 18 have used Generative AI at work since Generative AI tools became public.
Both recommended, the latter supported in part by Emergent Ventures as well.
AI Personality Extraction from Faces: Labor Market Implications
Human capital—encompassing cognitive skills and personality traits—is critical for labor market success, yet the personality component remains difficult to measure at scale. Leveraging advances in artificial intelligence and comprehensive LinkedIn microdata, we extract the Big 5 personality traits from facial images of 96,000 MBA graduates, and demonstrate that this novel “Photo Big 5” predicts school rank, compensation, job seniority, industry choice, job transitions, and career advancement. Using administrative records from top-tier MBA programs, we find that the Photo Big 5 exhibits only modest correlations with cognitive measures like GPA and standardized test scores, yet offers comparable incremental predictive power for labor outcomes. Unlike traditional survey-based personality measures, the Photo Big 5 is readily accessible and potentially less susceptible to manipulation, making it suitable for wide adoption in academic research and hiring processes. However, its use in labor market screening raises ethical concerns regarding statistical discrimination and individual autonomy.
That is from a new paper by Marius Guenzel, Shimon Kogan, Marina Niessner, and Kelly Shue. I read through the paper and was impressed. Of course since this is machine learning, I can’t tell you what the five traits are in any simple descriptive sense. But this is somewhat of a comeback for physiognomy, which even DeepSeek tells me is a pseudoscience. Via tekl, a fine-looking fellow if there ever was one.
Ukrainian bond data correction
In the previous post, I cited data showing that Ukrainian bond prices had fallen over the last few months. But it seems that data source was faulty, and the value of Ukrainian bonds has been rising, including recently. You can find some sources here. Apologies for the error!
I thank JoshB. for drawing this to my attention. He writes in the comments on that previous post: “Ukrainian local debt is not widely traded but according to bloomberg data it has done nothing but rally over the last four months. The UKRGB 19.7 8/25 that the linked website claims to be quoting is trading 99.13 dollar price, up from 90 in the fall. The USD external bonds are much more widely traded and they have definitely rallied over the past few months – it has been a popular hedge fund trade. The UKRAIN 1.75 2/29 for example are now $73 up from $61 pre election. The thesis has been that the Ukraine external debt stock is small relative to reconstruction needs and the country will desire market access so it makes sense to favorably restructure the external bond holders. I’m skeptical personally, but the premise of the original post that Ukraine debt is going down in price is wrong.”
Place Effects on Fertility Decision: Evidence from Mover Design
This paper investigates the causal impact of place-based factors on fertility decision using mover design and data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1968-2019). We find that moving to a state with a 1 percentage point higher birth rate increases the probability of childbirth by 0.9 percentage points, with cumulative effects reaching 3.8 percentage points three years post-move. The response demonstrates concentration among first births and exhibits systematic variation across demographic characteristics—with particularly pronounced effects observed among white women who are married, younger, and have higher income levels. Our variance decomposition shows the contribution of place effects to fertility variance increased from 4.7 percent to 26.0 percent before and after the Great Recession, with geographical variation in contraceptive access and healthcare infrastructure showing the strongest correlations with these place effects. This research emphasizes the importance of considering contextual factors in fertility research and policy interventions.
That is from a new paper by Hantao Wu and Man Zhu. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance
We create a novel reign-level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers’ cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom variation in ruler ability. We code the degree of blood relationship between the parents of rulers, which also reflects “hidden” layers of inbreeding from previous generations. The coefficient of inbreeding is a strong predictor of ruler ability, and the corresponding instrumental variable results imply that ruler ability had a sizeable effect on the performance of states and their borders. This supports the view that “leaders made history,” shaping the European map until its consolidation into nation states. We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state’s performance.
By Sebastian Ottinger and Nico Voigtländer, from Econometrica. Here are less gated versions. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
How effective was pandemic aid?
We use an instrumental-variables estimator reliant on variation in congressional representation to analyze the macroeconomic effects of federal aid to state and local governments across all four major pieces of COVID-19 response legislation. Through December 2022, we estimate that the federal government allocated $603,000 for each state or local government job-year preserved. Our baseline confidence interval allows us to rule out estimates smaller than $220,400. Our estimates of effects on aggregate income and output are centered on zero and imply modest if any spillover effects onto the broader economy.
That is from a new paper by Jeffrey Clemens, Philip Hoxie, and Stan Veuger. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
Does the Gender Wage Gap Actually Reflect Taste Discrimination Against Women?
One explanation of the gender wage gap is taste discrimination, as in Becker (1957). We test for taste discrimination by constructing a novel measure of misogyny using Google Trends data on searches that include derogatory terms for women. We find—surprisingly, in our view—that misogyny is an economically meaningful and statistically significant predictor of the wage gap. We also test more explicit implications of taste discrimination. The data are inconsistent with the Becker taste discrimination model, based on the tests used in Charles and Guryan (2008). But the data are consistent with the effects of taste discrimination against women in search models (Black, 1995), in which discrimination on the part of even a small group of misogynists can result in a wage gap.
That is a new NBER working paper by Molly Maloney and David Neumark.
The culture that is German (Roman)
We compare present-day regions that were advanced by Roman culture with those that remained outside of Roman influence. Even when accounting for more recent historical factors, we find that regions developed by Roman civilization show more adaptive personality patterns (Big Five) and better health and psychological well-being today. Results from a spatial regression discontinuity design indicate a significant effect of the Roman border on present-day regional variation in these outcomes. Additional analyses suggest that Roman investments in economic institutions (e.g., trade infrastructure such as Roman roads, markets, and mines) were crucial in creating this long-term effect. Together, these results demonstrate how ancient cultures can imprint a macro-psychological legacy that contributes to present-day regional inequalities.
That is from a recent paper by Obschonka, et.al., via Alexander Le Roy. Also on the German front:
The German parliament will debate on Thursday, January 30th whether to ban the opposition right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party.
A group of lawmakers, 113 MPs, have called for parliament to discuss a motion which would invite the constitutional court to decide whether the party is unconstitutional.The motion is supported by MPs from the centre-right CDU/CSU alliance, the far-left Die Linke, as well as the two governing parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens.
The signatories claim that the AfD “opposes central basic principles of the free democratic basic order,” questions human dignity, and strives for the “ethno-nationalist strengthening” of the German identity.
Of course the strongest support for AfD is not to be found in Trier. I would not myself support AfD, for both policy and cultural reasons. But I find it strange that Europeans so often see the United States as the locale where democracy is in danger. Right now AfD polls as the second most popular party in Germany — beat them at the ballot box!
Facts about Rwanda
…Rwanda is still poorer than most African countries due to being less urbanized than most African nations (Rwanda is 82% rural compared to Sub Saharan Africa’s 57% average). Rwanda’s donor aid adds up to ~75% of Rwanda’s government spending, which is roughly $1B.
The average Rwandan makes $1K a year ($3300 at purchasing power parity). At purchasing power parity, Rwanda is far poorer than a Nigerian, Kenyan, or Senegalese (for now) but the average Rwandan is still richer than a Ugandan, Burkinabe, or an Ethiopian…
Rwanda is fast growing, but its growing from a very low base. To put in perspective, even though the oil-state, Angola, has on average declined nearly 3% every year from 2013 to 2023 due to the post 2014 oil price collapse, the average Angolan still makes more than 2x the average Rwandan.
And this:
Like most developing countries, Rwanda’s economy is 75% informal. Rwanda blends economic models: besides private companies, Rwanda has military-owned enterprises like Egypt, Pakistan, or Uganda, party-owned enterprises akin to pre-1990s Taiwan & Eritrea, and state-owned enterprises targeting FDI for joint ventures, similar to Vietnam or Singapore…
Kagame initially embraced neoliberal privatization but then walked it back in the early 2000s to create party-owned enterprises through the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). These enterprises supplement limited tax revenue and are managed by RPF-appointed elites, controlling major sectors like real estate, agro-processing, and manufacturing.
Here is more from Yaw, informative throughout.
Congestion pricing update
Data collected by INRIX, a transportation analytics firm, found that travel times across the city and region had actually slowed overall at peak rush hours — by 3 percent in the morning and 4 percent in the evening — during the first two weeks of congestion pricing compared to a similar period last year.
Travel times improved on highways and major roads in Manhattan during both the morning and evening rush hours. But they were slower in Brooklyn and on Staten Island in the morning and in Queens and the Bronx in the evening.
Times also increased in some New Jersey counties, including Essex and Bergen, but improved in Nassau County on Long Island.
Here is more from the NYT. This is very far from the final word, however.
Do Migrants Pay Their Way? A Net Fiscal Analysis for Germany
This study quantifies the direct average net fiscal impact (ANFI) of migration in Germany, taking into account both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits such as health and education spending. Using a status quo approach with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for 2018 and microsimulation techniques to impute both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, our results show that migrants, especially first-generation migrants, have a more favorable net fiscal impact on average compared to natives. However, we demonstrate that this result is mainly driven by the favourable age structure of migrants. When controlling for demographic differences between these groups, we show that second-generation migrants contribute very similarly to natives to the German welfare state. Nevertheless, both natives and second-generation migrants, respectively, contribute more than first-generation migrants. These differences persist even when we do not account for indirect taxes and benefits-in-kind.
That is from a recent paper by Hend Sallam and Michael Christl. One interesting point in the paper is that native Germans have a net negative fiscal impact — is that really consistent with blaming the immigrants for the major problems?
Via the excellent Samir Varma.
Gender gaps in education and declining marriage rates
Over the past half-century, the share of men enrolled in college has steadily declined relative to women. Today, 1.6 million more women than men attend four-year colleges in the U.S. This trend has not lowered marriage rates for college women, a substantial share of whom have historically married economically stable men without college degrees. Both historical evidence and cross-area comparisons suggest that worsening male outcomes primarily undermine the marriage prospects of non-college women. The gap in marriage rates between college-and non-college women is more than 50% smaller in areas where men have the lowest rates of joblessness and incarceration.
That is from a new paper by Clara Chambers, Benny Goldman, and Joseph Winkelmann. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The 1920s immigration restrictions
The 1920s immigration restrictions in the US did not affect manufacturing wages.
The US immigration restrictions of the 1920s lowered the occupational standings of whites and incumbent immigrants.
US counties with more immigrants excluded by the quotas of the 1920s saw increased in-migration.
During the Great Black Migration of the US, black southerners moved to northern counties, filling roles left by excluded immigrants.
During the Great Black Migration, blacks who migrated to counties with more excluded immigrants experienced greater economic gains.
That is from a new piece by Bin Xie in the Journal of Comparative Economics. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.