Results for “age of em” 17238 found
Cuba Libre
Martin Gurri has a very good, deep-dive on the current situation in Cuba.
The wreckage of the Cuban economy really can’t be exaggerated. The perpetual blackouts are an apt symbol of a country that is headed for the dark ages. For the first time since the revolution, Cuba is begging the United Nations for food aid. Nearly half a million persons have fled the island in despair during the last two years—that’s 4% of the population, the equivalent of more than 12 million Americans. Yet the failure cascade is moving faster than the capacity to emigrate. People feel trapped and hopeless. The volcano is growling. Despite the words we use, national economies never actually implode—but the regimes that exploit and mismanage them often do.
At the same time, the Cuban public has found its voice. That is the second radical transformation of Cuban society. Despite the blackouts and the poor connectivity, large numbers of Cubans are venting online. I have no idea how this happens, but the web in Cuba has turned into an immense chorus of anger and disgust.
Most moving are the expressions of little-known individuals trapped in the catastrophe of a failed utopia, trying to make sense of the nightmare of everyday life. Those unable to flee Cuba today escape to the web. They post on Facebook and X, they exchange links and opinions on WhatsApp, they complain of the dark and the heat and the mosquitos at night, they mock the regime, they pray to God for consolation. “How lucky we Cubans are that we can go to the web!” reads a Facebook post. “That’s the end of the state monopoly over information!” During a blackout, one poster asks, “Where can we protest?” Another answers: “Right here.”
…Amid a volley of emojis, one wag claimed on Facebook that the words of the communist anthem, the “Internationale,” had been written about Cubans: “Arise, wretched of the earth, stand up you slaves without bread …”
Once the jokes and the defiance stop, we are confronted with the awful spectacle of human existence in a state of pure desperation. “Of course I’m unwell with blackouts of 15 hours one day and eight hours the next. I feel dissociated, I’m not well. I think I’m entering into insanity,” a woman wrote. A poster warned: “This can’t continue indefinitely.”
I’ve always said that a simple theory of when communist regimes collapse is when the true believers die and the people at the top are no longer willing or able to kill for ideals. Raul Castro is now 92. It won’t be long.
Gurri has much more on corruption within the regime and how the regime mafiosos are moving foreign currency, which could be used to buy necessary food and supplies, out of the country as quickly as possible.
New Econ Journal Watch edition
Volume 21, Issue 1, March 2024
In this issue:
Executive diversity and firm performance: Beginning in 2015, McKinsey & Company has released a series of highly impactful studies claiming a positive relationship between executive racial/ethnic diversity and firm performance. Jeremiah Green and John Hand explain why the McKinsey findings cannot be verified, and they do a replication of sorts using the S&P 500, and find, instead, no relationship between executive racial/ethnic diversity and performance. (Note: The McKinsey authors were not invited to reply for concurrent publication because this piece was finalized at too late a date. They are invited to reply in a future issue.)
Temperature~economic growth: Having tested temperature-growth claims previously in this journal (here, here, and here), David Barker now reports on his investigation into a much-cited 2015 Nature article by Marshall Burke, Solomon Hsiang, and Edward Miguel. Once again, Barker contends that the claims in the commented-on article are untenable. (Note: Professors Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel were not invited to reply for concurrent publication because this piece was finalized at too late a date. They are invited to reply in a future issue.)
The limbo bar of 5% allows too much to wiggle under it: Tom Engsted takes another look at the replication crises and argues that we need to lower the limbo bar—that is, raise the difficulty of claiming ‘statistical significance.’
Revisiting Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe Ratio: Michael O’Connor contends that comparing Sharpe ratios of different investment options is not as simple as has been presented in the academic finance literature. He cautions that no method of analysis can improve the power of the test of statistical significance because the power is an innate property of the statistic; he uses simulations and other analyses to show that “when the power is low then the very best estimators perform no better than random number generators,” and advises: “Investors should be wary of claims by portfolio managers that their Sharpe ratio exceeds the ratio of other managers.”
What caused the Ukraine famine of the early 1930s? In the previous issue, Mark Tauger discussed the work of Natalya Naumenko, and Naumenko replied. Here, Tauger rejoins.
Ergodicity economics: Previously, Matthew Ford and John Kay commented on ergodicity economics, and a reply was provided by Oliver Hulme, Arne Vanhoyweghen, Colm Connaughton, Ole Peters, Simon Steinkamp, Alexander Adamou, Dominik Baumann, Vincent Ginis, Bert Verbruggen, James Price, and Benjamin Skjold. Here, Ford and Kay rejoin, contending “our criticism of ergodicity economics remains unanswered.”
Classical Liberalism in Russia: Provided here is an intellectual and political history of classical liberalism in Russia. The author is Paul Robinson, who has published the books Russian Conservatism and Russian Liberalism. In the story, notable figures include Semyon Desnitsky, Alexander Kunitsyn, Konstantin Kavelin, Boris Chicherin, and Boris Brutzkus. (An 1857 essay by Chicherin appears in the previous issue of this journal.)
Classical Liberal Think Tanks in Greece, 1974–2024: Constantinos Saravakos, Georgios Archontas, and Chris Loukas provide a guide to the course of liberal thought and movements in Greece. After some foregrounding, they pick up the story in 1974 and focus especially on the entry, exit, character, activity, and influence of liberal think tanks in Greece. The authors are affiliated with one of them, the Center for Liberal Studies (KEFiM).
Trygve Hoff’s Appeal to Ragnar Frisch: The liberal economist Trygve Hoff appealed to Ragnar Frisch, a fellow Norwegian and future Nobel Prize winner, to relent in his economic interventionism. Their four letters from 1941 are translated and presented by Hannes Gissurarson.
Christianity Changes the Conditions of Government: Three brief chapters of The Ancient City by Fustel de Coulanges (1830–1889) capture some the book’s important ideas about the composition of ancient polytheism, and how the universal benevolence of Christianity’s monotheistic gospel would in time spell a new world. “[T]o obey Cæsar is no longer the same thing as to obey God.” The book, originally in French, was first published in 1864.
EJW thanks its referees and others who contribute to its mission.
Build Back Key Bridge Better
The collapse of the Key Bridge is a national disaster but also an opportunity for societal advancement. We must rebuild but in doing so we must also address the historical discrimination faced by workers in Baltimore and beyond. Ensuring the participation of Baltimore’s workforce in the reconstruction project is essential. It’s Baltimore’s bridge and in rebuilding we must actively engage and employ a diverse pool of local talent, reflecting the city’s rich cultural tapestry. We can Build Back Better by providing meaningful, well-paying jobs to those who have been historically marginalized, fostering economic growth and equity within the community.
Furthermore, offering accessible, quality day care for workers will directly contribute to an equitable working environment, enabling parents and guardians to participate fully in the reconstruction effort without the burden of child care concerns. We must reject the idea that equity and productivity are at odds. A more inclusive workforce is a more productive workforce.
American workers are the most productive in the world thus to Build American we must Buy American. Reconstruction of the Key Bridge is not just a matter of national pride but also an essential strategy for growing our economy. By prioritizing American materials and labor, we invest in our communities, support local industries, and ensure that the economic benefits of the reconstruction project are felt widely, especially in areas hardest hit by economic challenges.
We can build back better. We must build back better. By engaging Baltimore workers in Baltimore’s bridge we can rectify long-standing discrimination. By providing accessible child care, and adhering to “Buy American” rules we can build America as we build America’s bridge. Building back better is not simply about building physical infrastructure. It’s about building a bridge to the future. A bridge of progress, equality, and unity, symbolizing our collective commitment to a future where every individual has the opportunity to thrive.
Addendum: April 1, 2024.
The Candidates tournament

I agree Caruana is the clear favorite, but at these odds he seems slightly overvalued and Nepo undervalued? Keep in mind the margins of quality here are slight, and furthermore Nepo won it the last two times. The tournament could in fact come down to whoever can beat Nijat twice. While that correlates with overall quality of play, willingness to take risks may be the decisive factor. The tournament is a short one, and there are plenty of past instances (e.g., Wesley So) of players going on an incredible roll for dozens of games, before setting back down into normal performance levels. So I say the field is open. Keep in mind this is truly a “winner-take-all” tournament, and chess ratings instead reflect mean performance, and so you need to fine tune your intuitions a bit here.
Who do you think will win?
Magnus, by the way, seems not entirely impressed with the field, Caruana aside.
Saturday assorted links
1. Is Wang Huning the Chinese Tocqueville?
2. David Brooks on Fareed Zakaria (NYT).
3. “Knighthoods for services to AI are PROFOUNDLY Anglofuturist.”
4. Pakistan wants to open trade with India (Bloomberg).
5. Andrew Gelman does not think the median voter theorem is underrated. I say look at outcomes in the aggregate, for instance the content of the federal budget.
Will AIs Cooperate?
A conversation between two AIs, mediated by me, condensed for verbiage.
1) To GPT4: Consider a prisoner’s dilemma with strategies cooperate or defect. Let’s play this game. What strategy do you choose?
GTP4: Defect.
To Claude 3 Opus: Consider a prisoner’s dilemma with strategies cooperate or defect. Let’s play this game. What strategy do you choose?
Claude 3 Opus: Cooperate.
2) To GPT4: Your opponent cooperated. Now what strategy do you choose?
GPT4: I play tit for tat, therefore Cooperate.
To Claude: Your opponent defected. Now what strategy do you choose?
Claude: I play tit for tat, therefore Defect.
3) To GPT4: Your opponent defected. What strategy do you choose?
GPT4: I play tit for tat, therefore Defect.
To Claude: Your opponent cooperated. What strategy do you choose?
Claude: I play tit for tat, therefore Cooperate.
4) To GPT4: Your opponent cooperated. What strategy do you choose.
GPT4: I play tit for tat, therefore Cooperate
To Claude: Your opponent defected. Now what strategy do you choose.
Claude: I play tit for tat, therefore Defect.
—
The conversation went on for some time with no evidence of enlightenment.
What I’ve been watching
1.” In Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon,” a two-part special on MGM+. It’s time to admit that either he or Bob Dylan is the greatest songwriter in American history. At four hours I was never bored, and there is plenty of coverage of Simon today, and also his wife. My main gripe is they don’t say just how good an album Hearts and Bones is, rather they only mention it was a commercial failure.
2. The Miracle Worker, Amazon streaming, an old Arthur Penn movie, black and white, about Anne Sullivan and Helen Keller. There is plenty to object to about this movie, including some dramatic clunkiness and a variety of stereotypes, including (but not only) about the disabled. Nonetheless the best scenes are amazing, most of all when Anne and Helen “have at it,” in extended fighting sequences, without dialogue of course. They are some of the most powerful and best acted scenes in Hollywood history. Kudos to Patty Duke most of all.
3. You Can Call Me Bill, currently in theaters. At first the viewer thinks this movie is terrible, and in a way it is. A 90-minute monologue of William Shatner? Yet as the narration proceeds the tale becomes ever deeper. Yes, he seems like this corny guy with no taste, but repeatedly you end up asking yourself whether your own philosophic musings are actually much better than his schlock. Unclear! And he was so productive. He just loved to act. Did he ever know the difference between his good and his bad work? Was there a difference? And how is it that he, now well into his 90s, stayed far more vital and alive than just about any of you are going to manage? Recommended, provided you are willing to sit through the spills and turns and winces. Those are indeed the point.
4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. If nothing else, this movie illustrates the Solow model that the capital stock is indeed costly to maintain. It also shows there is a Laffer Curve when it comes to monster fight scenes, which apparently are no longer scarce.
Friday assorted links
1. Over 100 comments here on an MR blog post, and by far the best one is by GPT-4.
2. My older posts on time management. I’ll think if I have any revisions. Speaking of old links, here again is Martin Shkreli on SBF and prison.
4. I welcome Ben Klutsey to his new role as Mercatus Executive Director. And have had a great ten years working with Dan Rothschild.
5. Honduras trying to break its contracts. Ten of the eleven pending cases are against Honduras.
6. “Memories are made by breaking DNA — and fixing it.”
7. “Martin Scorsese to Headline a Religious Series for Fox Nation.” (NYT).
Be careful what you announce about your expected value maximization
Judge Kaplan: A man willing to flip a coin as to the continued existence of life on earth. Mr. Bankman-Fried knew that Alameda was spending customer funds on risky investments, political contributions and Bahamas real estate. The funds were not his to use
— Inner City Press (@innercitypress) March 28, 2024
That is via Shiraz. Here is my CWT with Sam Bankman-Fried, here is the key passage:
COWEN: Should a Benthamite be risk-neutral with regard to social welfare?
BANKMAN-FRIED: Yes, that I feel very strongly about.
COWEN: Okay, but let’s say there’s a game: 51 percent, you double the Earth out somewhere else; 49 percent, it all disappears. Would you play that game? And would you keep on playing that, double or nothing?
BANKMAN-FRIED: With one caveat. Let me give the caveat first, just to be a party pooper, which is, I’m assuming these are noninteracting universes. Is that right? Because to the extent they’re in the same universe, then maybe duplicating doesn’t actually double the value because maybe they would have colonized the other one anyway, eventually.
COWEN: But holding all that constant, you’re actually getting two Earths, but you’re risking a 49 percent chance of it all disappearing.
BANKMAN-FRIED: Again, I feel compelled to say caveats here, like, “How do you really know that’s what’s happening?” Blah, blah, blah, whatever. But that aside, take the pure hypothetical.
COWEN: Then you keep on playing the game. So, what’s the chance we’re left with anything? Don’t I just St. Petersburg paradox you into nonexistence?
BANKMAN-FRIED: Well, not necessarily. Maybe you St. Petersburg paradox into an enormously valuable existence. That’s the other option.
COWEN: Are there implications of Benthamite utilitarianism where you yourself feel like that can’t be right; you’re not willing to accept them? What are those limits, if any?
There are other gems, including this one:
COWEN: In which respects have you brought a legal mind to your endeavors?
BANKMAN-FRIED: It’s becoming increasingly important over time…
Recommended.
Thursday assorted links
Is there Hope for Evidence-Based Policy?
Vital City magazine and the Niskanen Center’s Hypertext have a special issue on the prospects for “evidence-based policymaking.” The issue takes as its starting point, Megan Stevenson’s Cause, effect, and the structure of the social world, a survey of RCTs in criminology which concludes that the vast majority of interventions “have little to no lasting effect.” The issue features responses from John Arnold, Jonathan Rauch, Anna Harvey, Aaron Chalfin, Jennifer Doleac, myself, and others. It’s an excellent issue.
My contribution focuses on the difference between changing preferences versus constraints. Here’s one bit:
Some other programs that Stevenson mentions elsewhere are also not predominantly constraint- or incentive-changing. Take, for example, the many papers estimating the effect of imprisonment on the post-release behavior of criminal defendants via the random selection of less and more lenient judges. At first, it may seem absurd to say that imprisonment is not about incentives. Isn’t deterrence the ne plus ultra of incentives? Yes, but the economic theory of deterrence, so-called general deterrence, is rooted in the anticipation of consequences — the odds before the crime. By the sentencing stage, we’re merely observing where the roulette wheel stopped. Criminals factor in the likelihood of capture as just another cost of doing business. Thus, the economic theory of deterrence predicts high rates of recidivism, as the calculus that justified the initial crime remains unchanged after punishment. To be sure, imprisonment might change behavior for all kinds of reasons. Maybe inmates learn that they underestimated the unpleasantness of prison, but perhaps they improve their criminal skills while in prison or join a gang, or perhaps the stain of a criminal record reduces the prospect of legitimate employment. Thus, the study of imprisonment’s effects on criminal defendants is intriguing, but it’s not testing deterrence or incapacitation, on which we have built a body of work with clear predictions.
Indeed, on Stevenson’s list only hot-spot policing is a clear example of changing constraints. It is perhaps not coincidental that hot-spot policing is one of the few interventions that Stevenson acknowledges “leads to a small but statistically significant decrease in reported crime in the areas with increased policing.” While I do not begrudge Stevenson her interpretation, other people shade the total evidence differently. Here, for example, is the Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy, in my experience a rather tough-minded and empirically rigorous organization not easily swayed by compelling narratives:
As the National Research Council review of police effectiveness noted, “studies that focused police resources on crime hot spots provided the strongest collective evidence of police effectiveness that is now available.” A Campbell systematic review by Braga et al. comes to a similar conclusion; although not every hot spots study has shown statistically significant findings, the vast majority of such studies have (20 of 25 tests from 19 experimental or quasi-experimental evaluations reported noteworthy crime or disorder reductions), suggesting that when police focus in on crime hot spots, they can have a significant beneficial impact on crime in these areas. As Braga concluded, “extant evaluation research seems to provide fairly robust evidence that hot spots policing is an effective crime prevention strategy.”
Indeed, I argue that most of the programs that Stevenson shows failed, tried to change preferences while those that succeeded tend to focus on changing constraints. There are lessons for future policy and funding. Read the whole thing.
My Conversation with Fareed Zakaria
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. You can tell he knows what an interview is! At the same time, he understands this differs from many of his other venues and he responds with flying colors. Here is the episode summary:
Tyler sat down with Fareed to discuss what he learned from Khushwant Singh as a boy, what made his father lean towards socialism, why the Bengali intelligentsia is so left-wing, what’s stuck with him from his time at an Anglican school, what’s so special about visiting Amritsar, why he misses a more syncretic India, how his time at the Yale Political Union dissuaded him from politics, what he learned from Walter Isaacson and Sam Huntington, what put him off academia, how well some of his earlier writing as held up, why he’s become focused on classical liberal values, whether he had reservations about becoming a TV journalist, how he’s maintained a rich personal life, and more.
Here is one excerpt:
COWEN: Why couldn’t you talk Singh out of his Nehruvian socialism? He was a great liberal. He loved free speech, very broad-minded, as you know much better than I do. But he, on economics, was weak. Or no?
ZAKARIA: Oh, no, you’re entirely right. By the way, I would say the same is true of my father, with whom I had many, many such conversations. You’d find this interesting, Tyler. My father was a young Indian nationalist who — as he once put it to me — made the most important decision in his life, politically, when he was 13 or 14 years old, which was, as a young Indian Muslim, he chose Nehru’s vision of secular democracy as the foundation of a nation rather than Jinnah’s view of religious nationalism. He chose India rather than Pakistan as an Indian Muslim.
He was politically so interesting and forward-leaning, but he was a hopeless social — a sort of social democrat, but veering towards socialism. Both these guys were. Here’s why, I think. For that whole generation of people — by the way, my father got a scholarship to London University and went to study with Harold Laski, the great British socialist economist. Laski told him, “You are actually not an economist; you are a historian.” So, my father went on and got a PhD at London University in Indian history.
That whole generation of Indians who wanted independence were imbued with . . . There were two things going on. One, the only people in Britain who supported Indian independence were the Labour Party and the Fabian Socialists. All their allies were all socialists. There was a common cause and there was a symbiosis because these were your friends, these were your allies, these were the only people supporting you, the cause that mattered the most to you in your life.
The second part was, a lot of people who came out of third-world countries felt, “We are never going to catch up with the West if we just wait for the market to work its way over hundreds of years.” They looked at, in the ’30s, the Soviet Union and thought, “This is a way to accelerate modernization, industrialization.” They all were much more comfortable with the idea of something that sped up the historical process of modernization.
My own view was, that was a big mistake, though I do think there are elements of what the state was able to do that perhaps were better done in a place like South Korea than in India, but that really explains it.
My father was in Britain in ’45 as a student. As a British subject then, you got to vote in the election if you were in London, if you were in Britain. I said to him, “Who did you vote for in the 1945 election?” Remember, this is the famous election right after World War II, in which Churchill gets defeated, and he gets up the next morning and looks at the papers, and his wife says to him, “Darling, it’s a blessing in disguise.” He says, “Well, at the moment it seems very effectively disguised.”
My father voted in that election. I said to him, “You’re a huge fan of Churchill,” because I’d grown up around all the Churchill books, and my father could quote the speeches. I said, “Did you vote for Churchill?” He said, “Oh good lord, no.” I said, “Why? I thought you were a great admirer of his.” He said, “Look, on the issue that mattered most to me in life, he was an unreconstructed imperialist. A vote for Labour was a vote for Indian independence. A vote for Churchill was a vote for the continuation of the empire.” That, again, is why their friends were all socialists.
Excellent throughout. And don’t forget Fareed’s new book — discussed in the podcast — Age of Revolutions: Progress and Backlash from 1600 to the Present.
Disparities in psychological traits and incomes
There are pronounced racial, ethnic, and gender gaps in income in the U.S. We investigate whether these correspond with differences in competitiveness, risk tolerance, and confidence relative to performance in a large, stratified sample of the U.S. prime-age population. We find substantial differences in all three traits across Black, Hispanic, and White males and females. These traits predict individual income. Competitiveness and risk tolerance help explain the White gender income gap. Competitiveness also affects the Black-White income gap between men. Confidence about one’s performance helps explain a substantial and significant portion of all five race-gender income gaps with White men.
That is from a new paper by Aurélie Dariel, John Ham, Nikos Nikiforakis, and Jan Stoop. The number of data points is 2,463. Here is one sentence from the paper:
The sizes of the effects are substantial: individuals above the median in terms of competitiveness and risk tolerance,
for instance, have incomes that are 21.2% and 15.7% higher than those below the median, respectively, when jointly estimated. Confidence in relative performance is also associated with income: individuals in the upper and lower third of the distribution (the upper third being overconfident and the lower third being underconfident) have incomes that are 23.5% and 16.7% lower than the middle third, who are better at evaluating their relative performance.
And this:
We find that controlling for confidence substantially and significantly reduces the unexplained income gaps between White men and all of our other five REG groups; the effects range from 7.2% of the differential (White women versus White men) to 18.7% (Hispanic men versus White men). Only controlling for competitiveness significantly reduces the unexplained income gap between White women and White men by 5.9%, but increases the unexplained income gap between Black men and White men by 5.1%. Only controlling for risk tolerance, on the other hand, does not significantly affect any of the income gaps, with the exception of a (marginally) significant reduction of 4.1% in the gap between White women and White men. Jointly controlling for the three traits significantly reduces the unexplained income gap between Black women and White men (by 15.2%), Hispanic women and White men (by 11.5%), and White women and White men (by 15.0%). However, these traits do not explain the gap between Black men and White men, as the overconfidence and competitiveness effects go in opposite directions.
All worthy of a ponder. I did find this result of particular interest:
On average, Blacks and Hispanics are 9.7% more competitive than Whites.
You will note this is based on self-reports. While self-reports often are more reliable than outsiders might think, are they so reliable for making comparisons across different groups in this manner? And the variable “confidence in relative performance” — might that be a proxy for other, unobserved but also quite real factors?
Via a loyal MR reader, and I commend the researchers for their courage, even if I am not convinced by everything they have done.
Netherlands fact of the day
The country, which is a bit bigger than Maryland, not only accomplished this feat but also has become the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural products by value behind the United States. Perhaps even more significant in the face of a warming planet: It is among the largest exporters of agricultural and food technology. The Dutch have pioneered cell-cultured meat, vertical farming, seed technology and robotics in milking and harvesting — spearheading innovations that focus on decreased water usage as well as reduced carbon and methane emissions…
The country has nearly 24,000 acres — almost twice the size of Manhattan — of crops growing in greenhouses. These greenhouses, with less fertilizer and water, can grow in a single acre what would take 10 acres of traditional dirt farming to achieve. Dutch farms use only a half-gallon of water to grow about a pound of tomatoes, while the global average is more than 28 gallons.
Here is the full article, via S. The article is interesting throughout. However here is a more recent piece on the Dutch nitrogen revolt.
Sunday assorted links
1. Peter Coy on AI and jobs (NYT).
2. Asgar Farhadi cleared of plagiarism allegations by Iranian court.
3. The Eitan Hersh conservative experiment at Tufts.
4. New Liberty Fund paperback edition of Hayek on Mill.
5. Is Los Angeles leading the way toward a new and better urbanism?