Category: Law

Haiti vs. the Dominican Republic

I am setting aside most of the cultural and “macro” issues, and just considering policy, in my latest Bloomberg column.  Excerpt:

Consider agriculture. If you fly over Hispaniola, you can see a notable difference between the Haitian and Dominican sides of the border. The Dominican side has plenty of trees, whereas the Haitian side is denuded. Much of that can be explained by Haiti’s history of weaker property rights. A “tragedy of the commons” has led to systematic exploitation of Haitian land.

The deforestation of Haiti dates from at least 1730, when French colonial policies, timber exports and the clearing of the land for coffee production all did damage. That hurt the prospects for Haitian agriculture, but much of the tree-clearing took place in the middle of the 20th century. Haitians have long used charcoal as an energy source, which led to unchecked deforestation, soil erosion and desertification. Thus, despite its beautiful natural setting, most of Haiti does not appear green and sparkling.

In the Dominican Republic, deforestation is also a problem — but not nearly on the scale of Haiti. Forests still cover about 40% of the country’s land (estimates for Haiti have ranged as low as 2%). The Dominican Republic has some national parks and reforestation programs, and developed alternative energy sources to reduce the demand for charcoal. Forest cover, and the quality of the soil, made a comeback. The country is also working toward selling its reforestation for carbon credits, giving it further economic incentive to protect its land.

To the extent that the Dominican Republic still experiences deforestation, it often comes from livestock cultivation, a far more economically productive activity than gathering wood for charcoal.

To citizens of wealthy countries, these differences may not sound enormous. But agriculture is an important driver of early economic development. Surpluses from agriculture enable the accumulation of savings, which finances broader commercial investment and helps people start small businesses. The economy obtains a base for diversifying into manufacturing, as happened in East Asia. Ethiopia’s double-digit growth spurt, before the recent tragic civil wars, also was rooted in agricultural productivity gains.

Today the Dominican Republic is essentially self-sufficient in food, including rice. According to the US government, Haiti now relies on imports for “a significant portion of the agricultural products it consumes,” including 80% of its rice. In 1981, by contrast, food imports were only 18% of the Haitian diet.

There are further arguments at the link.

Marc Andreessen and I talk AI at an a16z American Dynamism event

a16z has issued the talks from that event, and we are issuing it too, as a bonus episode of CWT.  But note it is shorter than usual, and not the typical CWT format — this was done for an audience of actual DC human beings!

Excerpt:

COWEN: Why is open-source AI in particular important for national security?

ANDREESSEN: For a whole bunch of reasons. One is, it is really hard to do security without open source. There are actually two schools of thought on information security, computer security broadly, that have played out over the last 50 years. There was one school of security that says you want to basically hide the source code, and you want to hide the source code precisely. This seems intuitive because, presumably, you want to hide the source code so that bad guys can’t find the flaws in it, right? Presumably, that would be the safe way to do things.

Then over the course of the last 30 or 40 years, basically, what’s evolved is the realization in the field (and I think very broadly) that actually, that’s a mistake. In the software field, we call that “security through obscurity,” right? We hide the code. People can’t exploit it. The problem, of course, is: okay, but that means the flaws are still in there, right?

If anybody actually gets to the code, they just basically have a complete index of all the problems. There’s a whole bunch of ways for people to get the code. They hack in. It’s actually very easy to steal software code from a company. You hire the janitorial staff to stick a USB stick into a machine at 3:00 in the morning. Software companies are very easily penetrated. It turned out, security through obscurity was a very bad way to do it. The much more secure way to do it is actually open source.

Basically, put the code in public and then basically build the code in such a way that when it runs, it doesn’t matter whether somebody has access to the code. It’s still fully secure, and then you just have a lot more eyes on the code to discover the problems. In general, open source has turned out to be much more secure. I would start there. If we want secure systems, I think this is what we have to do.

Marc is always in top form.

Those new service sector jobs, squatter removal edition

Via the excellent Samir Varma, hail to Handyman Flash Shelton:

After local law enforcement couldn’t help, Shelton spent days dissecting laws around squatters’ rights. He managed to get rid of the women within a day by drafting a lease agreement with his mother designating him the legal resident of the home, then took over the house when the women stepped out one day and barred them from re-entering.

Now he uses his experience to provide squatter removal services for others and has successfully helped several landlords in California reclaim their homes.

“I think it’s just something that is coming to light … and I believe that it’s going to get worse,” Shelton told Fox News. “Squatters’ rights were never intended to allow the takeover of residential maintained properties. So until we make it criminal, it’s just going to keep happening, and people are going to be afraid to rent out or buy.”

In October, a 4,000 square foot, five-bedroom Atlanta home was taken over by squatters who ran an illegal strip club inside on weekends and kept horses on the property, neighbors told WSB-TV. Ultimately, the FBI arrested four people residing in the trashed house.

Another Atlanta resident discovered squatters had broken into her property that she was selling. She said there was prostitution, drug use and $30,000 worth of damage done to her home.

Here is the full story, here is (gated) LA Times coverage.

TikTok divestiture

I’ve blogged this in the past, and don’t have much to add to my previous views.  I will say this, however: if TikTok truly is breaking laws on a major scale, let us start a legal case with fact-finding and an adversarial process.  Surely such a path would uncover the wrongdoing under consideration, or at least strongly hint at it.  Alternately, how about some research, such as say RCTs, showing the extreme reach and harmful influence of TikTok?  Is that asking for too much?

Now maybe all that has been done and I am just not aware of it.  Alternatively, perhaps this is another of those bipartisan rushes to judgment that we are likely to regret in the longer run.  In which case this would be filed under “too important to be left to legal fact-finding and science,” a class of issues which is sadly already too large.

The Irish reject a “Woke” constitutional change

Ireland’s effort to remove old-fashioned family values from its constitution suffered a double defeat Saturday as voters rejected the amendments on offer as maddeningly vague and threatening to property rights…

In final results announced Saturday night, the amendment to change the constitutional definition of family was rejected by 67.7 percent of voters. The proposed changes on family care took an even harsher drubbing, with 73.9 percent against — the greatest defeat of an amendment in Irish constitutional history…

The outcome means that the 1937 constitution, the legal bedrock for the Irish state, will continue to declare marriage a requirement for any family, while women’s value to society comes from delivering “duties in the home.”

Those notions from a bygone era contrast starkly with the reality of Ireland today, where two-fifths of children are born out of wedlock and most women work outside the home.

The government, with support from all the main opposition parties, had wanted the public to accept two amendments.

Here is the full story, via Rich D.

In Conversation with Próspera CEO Erick Brimen & Vitalia Co-Founder Niklas Anzinger

During my visit to Prospera, one of Honduras’ private governments under the ZEDE law, I interviewed Prospera CEO Erick Brimen and Vitalia co-founder Niklas Anzinger. I learned a lot in the interview including the real history of the ZEDE movement (e.g. it didn’t begin with Paul Romer). I also had not fully appreciated the power of reciprocity stacking.

Companies in Prospera have the unique option to select their regulatory framework from any OECD country, among others. Erick Brimen elaborated in the podcast how this enables companies to do normal, OECD approved, things in Prospera which literally could not be done legally anywhere else in the world.

…so in the medical world for instance you have drugs that are approved in some countries but not others and you have medical practitioners that are licensed in some countries but not the others and you have medical devices approved in some countries but not others and there’s like a mismatch of things that are approved in OECD countries but there’s no one location where you can say hey if they’re approved in any country they’re approved here. That is what Prosper is….Our hypothesis is that just by doing that we can leapfrog to a certain extent and it’s got nothing to do with the wild west or doing weird things.

…so here so you can have a drug approved in the UK but not in the US with a doctor licensed in the US but not in the UK with a medical device created in Israel but not yet approved by the FDA following a procedure that has been say innovated in Canada, all of that coming together here in Prospera.

A different perspective on power grid YIMBY and NIMBY (from my email)

Just flagging that while YIMBY is important…it’s only part of the solution. And it’s unclear just how important it is compared to the issues below because so few projects are even proposed and most that are do in fact get built without too much NIMBY delay (though it certainly does happen and as an attorney I’ve had clients on both sides of those fights).

A major cause of the decline in transmission miles built is that transmission owners (typically incumbent utilities often with some amount of government granted monopoly power) have chosen not to build the kind of high voltage transmission lines that bring power from generation, largely in an effort to avoid competition and construction risk. In short, they make more money building smaller projects that maintain reliability but don’t increase the transmission capacity of the system because those smaller projects are immune from planning scrutiny and competition.

FERC is currently sitting on a new rule that will attempt to improve this, though in my opinion should go much further than I suspect it will. Eg, FERC should significantly roll back the rate of return and assumption of prudence for small projects that are increasingly making up the bulk of transmission investments as well as forcing transmission planners to fully incorporate multiple benefits of projects when deciding what projects get priority (similar to what the Midcontinent Independent System Operator does for its Long Range Transmission Planning portfolios).

Hope that context is helpful. NIMBY is all the talk in transmission right now, but it is in reality not the main source of drag on development in my experience. In some ways I’d love for NIMBY to be the biggest hurdle because it would at least mean we’d be trying to build ambitious new projects.

From Anonymous.

We need YIMBY for the U.S. power grid

The amount of new transmission line installed in the United States has dropped sharply since 2013, when 4,000 miles were added. Now, the nation struggles to bring online even 1,000 new miles a year. The slowdown has real consequences not just for companies but for the climate. A group of scientists led by Princeton University professor Jesse Jenkins warned in a report that by 2030 the United States risks losing out on 80 percent of the potential emission reductions from President Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, if the pace of transmission construction does not pick up dramatically now.

I had not know this:

To answer the call, some states have passed laws to protect crypto mining’s access to huge amounts of power.

Or that this had come so far:

Northern Virginia needs the equivalent of several large nuclear power plants to serve all the new data centers planned and under construction. Texas, where electricity shortages are already routine on hot summer days, faces the same dilemma.

Here is the full WaPo article by Evan Halper.

Tide turning in Washington State?

From an MR reader:

Good story here about one man in Washington state fighting the battle against the progressive tide. He single handedly got six initiatives on the ballot to repeal progressive reforms over the past few years. These include a police pursuit law that prevents police from chasing criminals in most cases, and a capital gains tax despite the Washington State constitution specifically banning income tax.

One man takes on state government and wins after passage of 3 voter initiatives (fox13seattle.com)

Big recent news is that 3 of the 6 initiatives have already passed in the State legislature, and the rest will be sent to the voters as ballot questions.

We also have a new moderate city council in Seattle that is pressing charges against protestors who disrupt city meetings, making hard drugs illegal again, and trying to re-fund the police department. Also it looks like 12 (out of hundreds) of protestors that recently shut down I-5 in the heart of the city will be prosecuted.  This all would have seemed impossible under the former mayor and city council.  Definitely a feeling in the air that the tide has turned to some degree.

I await further reports.

What can be learned from Singaporean health care institutions?

Besides the usual, that is.  Max Thilo of the UK has a new and excellent study on this, here is one excerpt from the foreword by Lord Warner:

Second, and critical, the Singaporeans are not fixated on delivering services from acute hospitals – the most expensive part of any healthcare system because of its fixed overheads and expensive maintenance. As this report demonstrates “the reason why Singapore spends so much less on health than other developed countries is its low hospital utilisation.” Instead, Singapore has invested in highly productive polyclinics and low-cost telemedicine. The result is that Singaporeans can visit their GP more often than English patients. In their polyclinics they also improve productivity by separating chronic and acute care.

And from Max:

During a recent trip, I met with the CEO of the largest telemedicine provider in Singapore. He casually mentioned that UK patients were already using his service. This seemed surprising. No comprehensive data is available for the costs of UK telemedicine services, so I googled the cost of online appointments in the UK and Singapore. Singaporean appointments are less than half the price of those in the UK. The most affordable online appointment I found in the UK was £29. Yet, many providers charge significantly more – for instance, Babylon Health lists its price for private GP appointments at £59. In contrast, Doctor Anywhere, Singapore’s leading telemedicine provider, offers services for just £12.27 Doctor Anywhere has an app where patients can log on and see patients virtually. They make and then register the diagnosis. The rest of the process, including referrals and prescriptions, is automated.

Recommended.

Further data on alcohol use amongst American youth

This paper provides the first long-run assessment of adolescent alcohol control policies on later-life health and labor market outcomes. Our analysis exploits cross-state variation in the rollout of “Zero Tolerance” (ZT) Laws, which set strict alcohol limits for drivers under age 21 and led to sharp reductions in youth binge drinking. We adopt a difference-in-differences approach that combines information on state and year of birth to identify individuals exposed to the laws during adolescence and tracks the evolving impacts into middle age. We find that ZT Laws led to significant improvements in later-life health. Individuals exposed to the laws during adolescence were substantially less likely to suffer from cognitive and physical limitations in their 40s. The health effects are mirrored by improved labor market outcomes. These patterns cannot be attributed to changes in educational attainment or marriage. Instead, we find that affected cohorts were significantly less likely to drink heavily by middle age, suggesting an important role for adolescent initiation and habit-formation in affecting long-term substance use.

Here is the article by Tatiana Abboud, Andriana Bellou, and Joshua Lewis, via tekl once again.  People, you can make things easier for the political philosophers — why should they have to weigh liberty against utility?  Just give up drinking voluntarily.

The Continuing Influence of Fast Grants

Fast Grants, the rapid COVID funding mechanism created by Tyler, Patrick Collison and Patrick Hsu continues to inspire change around the world. Jano Costard, the Head of Challenges at SPRIND, the German Federal Agency for Disruptive Innovation writes:

Lots to learn from Fast Grants! Can we implement it in a public institutions that face a different set of rules (and legacy)? We tried with the Challenge program at the German Federal Agency for Disruptive Innovation, SPRIND, and succeeded, mostly.

While Fast Grants gave out grants in the first round in 48h, we haven’t been that speedy. Our last Challenge had 2 weeks and 2 days from deadline until final decision in a two stage evaluation procedure. Those last two days were spent doing pitches and the teams were informed of the decision the following night. So, it rather compares to the 2 weeks decision time Fast Grants has for later rounds.

During Covid, speed was of the utmost importance. But speed remains crucial now. Teams we fund have applications with other public funders undecided after more than 2 years. These delays accumulate and matter even for pressing but slowly advancing threats like climate change. No cleantech solution that is still in the lab today will have a meaningful impact on achieving our climate goals for 2030! It’s not only the R&D that takes time, getting to meaningful scale quickly will be much harder. That’s why there is no time to waste at the start of the process.

Fast grants has two important advantages when it comes to implementation: private funds and limited legacy. Public institutions often face additional rules and procedures that slow down processes. But this is not inevitable.

For SPRIND Challenges, we implemented a funding mechanism that left room for unbureaucratic processes and provided solutions for challenges that public funders or procurers typically face. This mechanism, called pre-commercial procurement, has been established by the European Commission in 2007 but was used in Germany only 1 time until we started to use it in 2021. This is also due to legacy in processes. Institutions execute their work in part based on an implicit understanding of how things need to be, about what is allowed and what is not. This might lead them to ignore new and beneficial instruments just because “this can’t be true”. Even worse, if new mechanisms are adopted by an institution with strong inherent understand of what can and cannot work, they run the risk of overburdening new and beneficial mechanisms with previous processes and requirements. In the end, a funding mechanism is just a tool. It needs to be used right.

SPRIND had the benefit of being a newly established public institution with important liberties in doing things differently and it’s lead by a Director @rafbuff who, at the time, had no experience in the public sector. So, did we find the ultimate way to research and innovation funding with SPRIND Challenges? Certainly not! Improvements are necessary but sometimes hard to achieve (looking at you, state-aid-law!).

Impressive! And check out SPRIND, they are funding have some interesting projects!

Monopolized organ collection

The nation’s 56 organ procurement organizations collect organs — mainly kidneys — from deceased donors at hospitals and arrange for them to be transported to surgeons at the 250 U.S. medical centers that perform transplants. Each procurement group holds a government-guaranteed monopoly over a swath of U.S. territory where it operates.

Some have failed for years to collect enough organs to meet demand, according to government records. But the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the part of HHS that licenses the nonprofits to operate, has never decertified one. In response to critiques, the CMS issued new benchmarks that will allow the agency to weed out poor performers beginning in 2026.

Now many of these organ collection groups are under investigation for fraud and overbilling the government.

Hazlett on T-Mobile/Sprint

Tom Hazlett whose op-ed on the T-Mobile Sprint merger I quoted earlier writes me:

A few thoughts on your robust MR debate: (1) Were we to observe the counterfactual over the post-merger period we would have additional evidence – no disagreement. But the counterfactuals are themselves controversial to construct, and antitrust analyses typically make just the “before/after” prediction referenced. As the case against the merger (brought by several states, but rejected by a federal court) put it: “The proposed transaction would eliminate Sprint as a competitor… This increased market concentration will result in diminished competition, higher prices, and reduced quality and innovation.”

(2) There is powerful supporting evidence about merger effects apart from the retail price data. If real, quality-adjusted rates were anticipated to drop at even a faster clip (without a merger), reversing a pre-merger pro-consumer trend, then the post-merger performance in stock prices would have benefited the three incumbents in the market. Instead, two of the three firms have seen large abnormal declines in share values.

(3) The “cozy triopoly” theory is itself upended by both the firm stock price performances and the pattern of capital investments. The “Demsetz Critique” of the Structure-Conduct-Performance paradigm showed that a positive concentration-profits correlation does not imply monopolistic behavior if the proximate cause of the excess profits is efficiency. Here, T-Mobile’s network improvements appear to be caused by its merger-based spectrum acquisitions, and these upgrades linked to its subscriber growth and capital gains. The non-merging mobile rivals have suffered highly negative returns, likely in significant part from intensified competitive challenges that forced them to make large investments in response. In 2021, Verizon and AT&T combined to pay over $75 billion for spectrum rights in an FCC auction, easily the most ever paid by two (or any number of) license bidders. Cartel formation predictably reduces rivalry; evidence of firms aggressively increasing capex to better compete for market share runs counter to the expectation.

(4) Industry analysts – who provide third-party evaluations often given great weight by antitrust authorities – support these interpretations. In Dec. 2022, e.g., sector expert Craig Moffett (MoffettNathanson) wrote: “We expect T-Mobile to continue, and indeed accelerate, their market share gains versus AT&T and Verizon, as T-Mobile’s 5G network superiority becomes increasingly evident and increasingly relevant as 5G handsets become ubiquitous. The combination of a single telecom operator having both the industry’s best network and its lowest prices is unprecedented… “

(5) A 750-word oped is not the ultimate format for such evidence. My Working Paper with Robert Crandall (formerly of Brookings, now with the Technology Policy Institute) supplies a more complete analysis – comments again welcome.