Alex Tabarrok

From a Rand Paul press release:

Today the U.S. Senate voted to pass the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act (S.3187), which included language inserted by Sen. Rand Paul. This language would force the FDA to accept data from clinical investigations conducted outside the United States, including the European Union, to speed the process of getting life-saving drugs on the market by the FDA.

“Innovation in clinical drug trials should not be confined to the data received from trials in the United States. Findings from countries that incorporate the same rigorous requirements as we do when developing life-saving drugs and devices should be accepted by the FDA as well,” Sen. Paul said.

I agree but I would go further: Any drug or medical device introduced into say the EU, Japan, Canada or Australia ought to be automatically approved in the United States within 90 days. Such a procedure would reduce delay, eliminate needless duplication and cut costs.

Think about it this way: Europeans don’t regard the FDA as the best or final arbiter of safety and efficacy so why should we?

See FDAReview.org, especially the section on reform options, for more.

In Modern Principles Tyler and I explain that price floors create wasteful increases in quality. The classic story is the Civil Aeronautics Board’s regulation of airline prices between 1938 and 1978. Through entry, exit and price regulation, the CAB kept prices above market levels and airlines earned excess profits with every customer. Although the airlines were not allowed to compete on price they could compete to attract customers by offering better meals, wider seats and more frequent flights. Airline quality, as a result, was high but it was inefficiently high; for example, too many flights flew half empty. More fundamentally, if airlines compete by lowering prices by $100, customers are automatically better off by $100. But when airlines have no choice but to compete by spending $100 on “quality” customers are not necessarily better off by $100. Indeed, enforced non-price competition will always result in more spending than value creation on the margin. If given the choice, customers would have preferred lower prices to higher quality but until deregulation in 1978 they were not given the choice. Thus, price floors create wasteful increases in quality.

Ok, so where does stock pricing come into play? Chris Stucchio, a high-frequency trader, argues that the sub-penny rule, SEC Rule 612, “essentially acts as a price floor on liquidity – it is illegal to sell liquidity at a price lower than $0.01.” As a result, traders compete on speed (latency) rather than on price.

As with a classical minimum wage, two parties are harmed – the purchaser (who must pay extra) and the lower priced seller (who is pushed out of the market).

Similarly, at prices higher than $0.01, it makes price movements lumpy – on a bid ask spread of $0.05, it is illegal for someone to enter the market at price $0.049 or $0.045. Thus, at any price point, speculators are forced to compete on latency rather than on price. Price competition is only possible if one market maker is willing to offer a price at least $0.01 better than another, which is often not the case.

When price competition is impossible, market makers must compete for business via other methods – in this case latency.

As with the airlines, the increase in speed–now such that 40,000 trades can be executed in the literal blink of an eye and relativity matters–is profitable for the traders even though it doesn’t add nearly as much to customer or social welfare. As I wrote earlier:

A small increase in speed over one’s rivals has a large effect on who wins the race but no effect on whether the race is won and only a small effect on how quickly the race is won.  We get too much investment in innovations with big influences on distribution and small (or even negative) improvements in efficiency and not enough investment in innovations that improve efficiency without much influencing distribution (i.e. innovations in goods with big positive externalities).

Penny pricing (and before that 1/16th pricing) made sense when stocks were mostly traded by humans and we needed to conserve cognition but, as Stucchio points out, most trading today is done by computers and pricing in hundredths of a penny (or less) would not impose any extra effort on the computers. Pricing in 1/100ths of a penny, however, would dramatically increase price competition and reduce wasteful quality competition.

Here are previous MR posts on HFT about which Tyler and I have debated.

Matt Yglesias shouts it from the rooftops on occupational licensing:

Licensing requirements…are by far the best statistical predictor of business-friendliness, for those subjected to them. And unlike taxes or environmental rules, these have spread like kudzu, with little scrutiny and often scant policy rationale.

A recent comprehensive survey of state licensing practices by the Institute for Justice reveals little consistency or coherent purpose behind most licensing. Nevada, Louisiana, Florida, and the District of Columbia, for example, all require aspiring interior designers to undergo 2,190 hours of training and apprenticeship and pass an exam before practicing. In the other 47 states, meanwhile, there’s no legal training requirement. My friends and co-workers living in D.C.’s Virginia and Maryland suburbs appear to get on fine with unlicensed interior decorators, and all across America, amateurs have decorated their own homes without imperiling public safety.

Almost all states—though not Alabama or the anarchic United Kingdom—require barbers to be licensed, but the specific requirements seem to vary arbitrarily. New York barbers need 884 days of education and apprenticeship. Across the river in New Jersey, it’s 280. But getting one’s hair cut in New Jersey (to say nothing of England) is hardly a life-threatening gamble.

…a wide range of these rules could be done away with entirely at basically no risk. Regulation is needed when it would make sense for a firm to deliberately engage in malfeasance. Dumping harmful toxins into the air is highly profitable unless it’s prohibited. Financiers can draw huge bonuses by taking on too much risk, only to wreck the economy later. In other occupations, though, shoddy work brings its own punishments. An interior decorator who can’t get recommendations from satisfied customers probably won’t remain an interior decorator for long.

In these cases, licensing rules raise the prices the rest of us pay, make it difficult for successful entrepreneurs to expand their businesses, and are often a major barrier to employment for the most vulnerable populations.

We have covered these issues before on MR but sometimes you just have to KEEP SHOUTING.

 Media Images Torturer2 525At left is an ad that ran in the Guardian newspaper. “The government of a Middle Eastern state is recruiting a senior torturer to work in a well-equipped prison. Our ideal candidate would be prepared to inflict extreme pain and suffering… Candidates will be expected to inspire a small but enthusiastic team.”

No, I don’t think the ad is real. Alas, I am sure the job is real.

Hat tip: Boing Boing.

The Father of Microcredit

by on May 21, 2012 at 7:04 am in Books, Economics, History | Permalink

You’ve heard how microcredit was born. In a nation long shackled by British rule and wracked by famine, a brilliant man was seized with a desire to strike a blow against the poverty all about him. Defying common sense and the skepticism of his colleagues, he began lending tiny sums out of his own pocket to poor people, which they were to invest in tiny businesses. He demanded no collateral, only the vouchsafe of the borrowers’ peers. The borrowers rewarded his faith with punctual repayment. In time, his experiment spawned a national movement that delivered millions of loans to poor men and women and broke the power of money lenders.

The hero of this story is…Jonathan Swift, author of Gulliver’s Travels.

Swift developed the main ideas of microcredit–small sums, co-signers on the loan who knew the recipient, loans to women–in the 1730s.  Although the system did not grow large in his lifetime, by the 1840s Irish microcredit institutions served a fifth of the population of Ireland.

The quote and information are from David Roodman’s excellent book Due Diligence: An Impertinent Inquiry into Microfinance. Roodman is a  remarkable scholar, equally at ease collecting information in the slums of Bangladesh as writing complex computer code, and Due Diligence is a very good book not just on microcredit but on development more generally.

(Loyal readers may recall that Tyler also noted Swift’s connection to  microcredit in a post from 2006.)

Solomon’s Knot: How Law Can End the Poverty of Nations has received less attention than some of other recent big books on development but I found it to be rich in institutional detail, wisdom and practical advice. The authors, Robert
Cooter and Hans-Bernd Schafer, are law professors and as befits their expertise they spend less time on why institutions differ and more on the details of how institutions differ–there is more in Solomon’s Knot, for example, on issues like relational finance, venture capital, joint-stock companies, contract law and bankruptcy law than in other books with a similar theme.

Here is one idea that I had not previously considered, should judges enforce contracts in the gray market?

…businessmen and workers must violate many regulations in order to get things done, especially in poor countries. Thus a builder in Cairo violates building restrictions, a worker and employer in Brazil evade employment taxes, and a manufacturer in Russia runs a factory without a permit to do business.

Throughout the world, much of the economy operates in the “grey market”…a survey of 145 countries estimated that gray
markets activities produce between 30% and 40% of GNP (gross domestic
product). The gray market’s share of total employment is even higher than its
share of GNP.

Judges in many countries will not enforce contracts in the gray market considering them null and void due to the extra-legality. Even when the contracts might be enforced, participants fear that they will be otherwise punished if they make use of the legal system. Cooter and and Schafer argue, however, that such contracts should be enforced and a strict separation be kept between law and regulation. They point to Germany as an example:

…Unlike many developing countries, German legal doctrine and practice avoid this
result. German regulatory violations seldom void contracts, and German
prosecutors seldom act on regulatory violations revealed in a civil trial. Thus a
gardener in the German gray market who does not pay taxes can sue an
employer for unpaid wages without fear of triggering regulatory prosecution.
And a customer who buys a restaurant meal at an hour when law requires the
closing of restaurants still has to pay his credit card bill. The same applies for a
construction contract that violates zoning regulations, or a credit contract that
violates banking regulations. Although seldom discussed in constitutional law,
separating the civil courts from the regulators and police is an important part of
the separation of powers, especially in countries with a large gray market.

The case for separation is strongest for gray markets because the underlying acts are not per se illegal but could the argument be extended even to black markets? Jeff Miron and Miron and Zweibel (JSTOR) argue that one reason that drug prohibition increases violence is that when courts are unavailable, violence becomes the least costly method of dispute resolution. What Cooter and Schafer suggest, however, is that it is at least conceivable to have a situation where the act remains illegal but the actors can resolve disputes in court. Imagine, for example, a drug user taking a dealer to court for cutting the product or a prostitute suing a john for not paying.

It seems naive to expect that we would enforce a rule not to use information from civil court to prosecute illegal behavior. Yet there is a precedent; if a police officer obtains evidence illegally, even without intent, then we throw such evidence out of court. A very strange incentive system. Nevertheless, if we can let murderers go free because the evidence against them was obtained illegally then perhaps we could also let drug dealers bring their contract disputes to court without on that basis prosecuting them for drug dealing.

Addendum: Here is a good interview of Cooter by Nick Schulz and an excerpt from the book.

No doubt you have heard how the leadership of China is meritocratic and composed of technocrats with PhDs. Minxin Pei suggests that there is less than meets the eye.

…Contrary to the prevailing perception in the West (especially among business leaders), the current Chinese government is riddled with clever apparatchiks like Bo who have acquired their positions through cheating, corruption, patronage, and manipulation.

One of the most obvious signs of systemic cheating is that many Chinese officials use fake or dubiously acquired academic credentials to burnish their resumes. Because educational attainment is considered a measure of merit, officials scramble to obtain advanced degrees in order to gain an advantage in the competition for power.

The overwhelming majority of these officials end up receiving doctorates (a master’s degree won’t do anymore in this political arms race) granted through part-time programs or in the Communist Party’s training schools. Of the 250 members of provincial Communist Party standing committees, an elite group including party chiefs and governors, 60 claim to have earned PhDs.

Tellingly, only ten of them completed their doctoral studies before becoming government officials.

Simply put, Chinese institutions are not as good as those in say Mexico. Thus, China will not overtake Mexico in terms of GDP per capita any time soon, hence Chinese growth rates will fall. All we are seeing today is the logic of the Solow model in action.

Genoeconomics

by on May 14, 2012 at 7:31 am in Data Source, Economics, Medicine, Science | Permalink

An interesting piece from the Boston Globe on “genoeconomics”:

Though the name wasn’t coined until 2007, genoeconomics flickered briefly into existence once before. In 1976, the late University of Pennsylvania economist Paul Taubman published the results of a study in which he followed the financial lives of identical twins, and found there were curious similarities in how much money they made as adults. Taubman concluded that between 18 percent and 41 percent of variation in income across individuals was heritable.

It was a startling conclusion, and one that Taubman’s fellow economists didn’t quite know what to do with. One joked that Taubman’s findings meant the government might as well shut down welfare, since clearly some people would remain poor no matter what.

….After Taubman, the idea that genes had an important role to play in decision-making was largely abandoned in the world of economics. But with the completion of the Human Genome Project in 2000, the first full sequence of a human being’s genetic code, people started wondering if perhaps it would be possible to push past broad heritability estimates, of the sort that Taubman generated, and figure out what part of a person’s genome influenced what aspect of his behavior.

…Over time, social scientists started coming to terms with the fact that even the most heritable of traits, such as height, were influenced not by one or two powerful genes, but by a combination of hundreds or even thousands—and that environmental factors, like a person’s upbringing, play a complex role in determining how those genes are expressed. “Every single direction has proved to be less promising than people originally expected,” said Laibson.

… hope lies in a new approach to data-gathering that is only just getting underway, wherein researchers look for patterns among thousands, and even millions of people—numbers that are only just becoming possible thanks to massive collaborations linking gene studies being conducted all over the world.

The researchers in question, Daniel Benjamin, David Laibson, David Cesarini and others, seem worried about the possibility of tracing attributes and behavior to genetics. Most of the big news is out already, however, and more easily observed in phenotype than genotype.

For more on the new approach see The genetic architecture of economic and political preferences.

These hangers in a São Paulo store show in real-time the number of “likes” an outfit has received on the Facebook page of Brazilian fashion retailer C&A. I shudder to think how many likes my typical outfit would receive.

The internet of things is approaching rapidly.

http://singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/CA-fashion-like.jpg

From the NYTimes:

President Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage on Wednesday was by any measure a watershed.

…Mr. Obama faces considerable risk in jumping into this debate, reluctantly or not, in the heat of what is expected to be a close election.

As of today, however, Intrade shrugged it off; that could mean the issue won’t play much of a role or that the political forces are equally balanced but that volatility could be higher in the future. My guess is the former, a lot of talk but when it comes to swing votes no action. We have come a long way.

 

The Growth of Justice

by on May 9, 2012 at 7:32 am in Economics, History, Law | Permalink

Justice is a key ingredient for economic growth. People will not invest if they fear that their life, liberty and property may be subject to arbitrary seizure and destruction. The rule of law and limited government provide a sphere of liberty within which individuals can make decisions with confidence that the fruits of their labor will not taken by the more powerful.

Justice is not just about legislation, however. Public and private discrimination diminish a person’s ability to individuate and develop, an ability that drives innovation and growth in the artistic, economic and scientific realms. In India the caste system binds many people to the lives of their ancestors regardless of desire, talent or will. In parts of the world half the population is subjugated and bound to a limited vision of their life, a vision which is not of their own making. Similar if less extreme forces have limited women and blacks in the United States.

In a pathbreaking paper, The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth, Jones, Hsieh, Hurst, and Klenow connect a micro allocation model to a macro growth model to estimate that the lifting of much discrimination in the United States since 1960 has had a large effect on economic growth:

In 1960, 94 percent of doctors were white men, as were 96 percent of lawyers and 86 percent of managers. By 2008, these numbers had fallen to 63, 61, and 57 percent, respectively. Given that innate talent for these professions is unlikely to differ between men and women or between blacks and whites, the allocation of talent in 1960 suggests that a substantial pool of innately talented black men, black women, and white women were not pursuing their comparative advantage. This paper estimates the contribution to U.S. economic growth from the changing occupational allocation of white women, black men, and black women between 1960 and 2008. We find that the contribution is significant: 17 to 20 percent of growth over this period might be explained simply by the improved allocation of talent within the United States.

In other words, the United States has benefited greatly from the growth of justice.

  1. Do not feel absolutely certain of anything.
  2. Do not think it worth while to proceed by concealing evidence, for the evidence is sure to come to light.
  3. Never try to discourage thinking for you are sure to succeed.
  4. When you meet with opposition, even if it should be from your husband or your children, endeavour to overcome it by argument and not by authority, for a victory dependent upon authority is unreal and illusory.
  5. Have no respect for the authority of others, for there are always contrary authorities to be found.
  6. Do not use power to suppress opinions you think pernicious, for if you do the opinions will suppress you.
  7. Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.
  8. Find more pleasure in intelligent dissent that in passive agreement, for, if you value intelligence as you should, the former implies a deeper agreement than the latter.
  9. Be scrupulously truthful, even if the truth is inconvenient, for it is more inconvenient when you try to conceal it.
  10. Do not feel envious of the happiness of those who live in a fool’s paradise, for only a fool will think that it is happiness.

Hat tip: Brainpickings.

Here is Evans, Kotlikoff, and Phillips making the case that transfers to the elderly, such as Social Security and Medicare, have dramatically lowered the US savings rate, the investment rate and real wage growth:

In the lifecycle model, the young, because they have longer remaining lifespans than the old, have much lower propensities to consume out of their remaining lifetime resources. This prediction is strongly confirmed for the US by Gokhale et al (1996).

Hence, in taking from young savers and giving to old spenders, which Uncle Sam has spent six decades doing on a massive scale, the lifecycle model predicts a major decline in US net national saving associated with a major rise in the absolute and relative consumption of the elderly. This is precisely what the data show.

In 1965, the US net national saving was 15.6% of net national income. Last year, it was just 0.9%. And, according to Gokhale et al (1996) and Lee and Mason (2012), the secular demise in US saving has coincided with a spectacular rise in the consumption of older Americans relative to that of younger Americans.

As Feldstein and Horioka (1980) document, US net domestic saving tracks US net national saving. Hence, postwar intergenerational redistribution has not only lowered net national saving; it has also reduced net domestic investment, from 14.0% of national income in 1965 to just 3.6% in 2011. This decline in the rate of net domestic investment is, no doubt, playing a major role in the slow growth in US wages. Indeed, the level of private-sector average real earnings per hour, exclusive of fringe benefits, is lower today than it was 40 years ago.

We call this America’s “fiscal child abuse”. If it continues, it will no doubt shortly drive the national saving rate, which was negative 1.2% in 2009, into permanent negative territory and further reduce net domestic investment and prospects for real wage growth.

Exceeding all expectations, Paul Romer convinced the Honduran government to authorize a charter city. Now Romer is encouraging Canada to export its institutions. Here is Romer and Octavio Sanchez, chief of staff to the President of Honduras, writing in Canada’s most important newspaper, The Globe and Mail:

Crossed-Flag-Pins Honduras Canada

http://www.crossed-flag-pins.com

With the near unanimous support of its Congress, Honduras recently defined a new legal entity: la Región Especial de Desarrollo. A RED is an independent reform zone intended to offer jobs and safety to families who lack a good alternative; officials in the RED will be able to partner with foreign governments in critical areas such as policing, jurisprudence and transparency. By participating, Canada can lead an innovative approach to development assistance, an approach that tackles the primary roadblock to prosperity in the developing world: weak governance.

…According to Gallup, the number of adults worldwide who would move permanently to Canada if given the chance is about 45 million. Although Canada can’t accommodate everyone who’d like to move here, it can help to bring stronger governance to many new places that could accept millions of new residents. The RED in Honduras is the place to start.

…By participating in RED governance, Canada can make the new city a more attractive place for would-be residents and investors.

…The courts in the RED will be independent from those in the rest of Honduras. The Mauritian Supreme Court [!, AT]  has agreed in principle to serve as a court of final appeal for the RED, but Canada can play a strong complementary role. Because the RED can appoint judges from foreign jurisdictions, Canadian justices could hear RED cases from Canada and help train local jurists.

Oversight, policing and jurisprudence are just a few of the ways in which Canada can help.

…The world does not need more aid. As the Gallup numbers show, it needs more Canada – more of the norms and know-how that lead to the rule of law, true inclusion and real opportunity for all.

Paul Romer is on an incredible run.